Keeping U.S. Intelligence Effective: The Need for a Revolution in Intelligence Affairs
William J. LahnemanAssistant Professor
Department of Political Science
Intelligence & 9/11• 9/11 perceived as an intelligence failure
• Many studies, government reports, books, and articles published concerning the need for intelligence reform– “Connecting the dots”
• Many reform initiatives have not produced the desired results
• My research experience– 2000-2005: National Intelligence Council (NIC) Project– 2003-2004: Future of the Internet Project– 2005: Landscapes Project– 2005-2006: Future of Intelligence Analysis Project– 2005-2010: IC Centers of Academic Excellence
• Ideal vantage point for thinking about the kinds of problems facing the U.S. intelligence enterprise
• Heard the term “RIA” mentioned during a meeting
Published March 2011
Revolutions• Periodically occur in all areas of human endeavor when
conditions change so significantly that traditional methods of doing business are rendered obsolete
• Examples– Information Revolution– The Revolution in Military Affairs– Biotechnical Revolution– An Islamist Revolution?
• Revolutions are important!– New winners and losers
Recognizing Revolutions • Four questions (from Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign
Affairs (March/April 1996)
1) Will emerging developments in military affairs change the appearance of combat?
2) Will these developments change the structure of armies?
3) Will they lead to the rise of new military elites?4) Will they alter countries’ power positions?
• To the extent answers are “yes,” a Revolution in Military Affairs was occurring.
Cohen’s Conclusion “Reflection on each of these [four questions]
suggests that this is the eve of a far-reaching change in warfare whose outlines are only dimly visible but real nonetheless. (emphasis added)”
- Eliot Cohen, “A Revolution in Warfare,” Foreign Affairs 75/2 (March/April 1996).
Testing for an RIA• Four questions (adapted from Cohen’s RMA
questions)1. Will developments in the intelligence enterprise change
how intelligence is developed and used (process)?2. Will developments change the structure of the U.S.
intelligence community (structure)?3. Will developments lead to the rise of new elites in the
intelligence community (skill sets)? 4. Will developments significantly effect the national
security of countries that fail to embrace them (effect)?
StructureCOLD WAR TODAY
•Single major threat •Many threats•Threats are states •Threats are states, nonstate
actors, global trends…•Emphasis on learning secrets •Emphasis on solving mysteries
and learning secrets•Emphasis on technical means •Emphasis on human intelligence•Most information classified •Open source revolution•Greatest danger is large scale nuclear attack
•Greatest danger is small scale attack by terrorists with WMDs
•Intelligence used for national security
•Intelligence used for national, regional & global security
ProcessCOLD WAR TODAY
•Most $$ to technical collection agencies
More $$ to human collection
•Nature of threat gave most $$ to DoD
Nature of threat requires more $$ to non-DoD agencies
•Each agency had clear mission New missions don’t fit old structure
•Need for information security fostered stovepiping
Need for extensive knowledge sharing
Skill SetsCOLD WAR TODAY
•Knowledge is power: keep it to yourself
•Knowledge sharing is power
•Technology the concern of well-defined organizations and personnel
•Everyone must understand certain technologies, both to analyze issues and to conduct day-to-day operations
An RIA is Needed• The answer to all four questions is “yes.” An RIA appears to
be needed (but is not yet occurring)
– The intelligence process should change.
– The organizational structure to support the process should change.
– Future elites in the intelligence community should possess new skills.
– Failure to adapt will have serious consequences.
Mapping the RIA• Thomas Kuhn and The Structure of Scientific
Revolutions (first edition by University of Chicago Press, 1962)
– Paradigms and paradigm shifts• Must first map the current or “traditional”
intelligence paradigm– Solving puzzles using secret information• Puzzles have answers (as opposed to mysteries)
– All raw intelligence obtained through SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT
Intelligence Requirements in Today’s Security Environment
• North Korea• Iran, China, and other functioning states• Pakistan, Afghanistan, Congo, Somalia, & other
failing or failed states• Al Qaeda and other transnational terrorist
groups• HIV/AIDS, Avian Flu, SARS and other Infectious
Diseases• Biopathogens
A New Intelligence Paradigm• New paradigm must include the old one. Both must function
without creating “destructive interference.”
• New paradigm must solve puzzles, mysteries, and “adaptive interpretations.”
• Adaptive interpretations apply to transnational issues/threats– SIGINT, GEOINT, MASINT, HUMINT, and OSINT not sufficient – need
new category of “trusted” information as well as classified and open source information
– Transnational threats require transnational solutions
Conclusions• Many intelligence reforms have not met expectations because
they clash with the traditional paradigm.– Bureaucratic inertia & immersion in traditional paradigm– Competing needs, such as information sharing vs. security concerns
• The traditional paradigm remains necessary, but it is not sufficient to keep U.S. intelligence effective.
• A Revolution in Intelligence Affairs is needed.– Actors that embrace the RIA will gain advantages over those that
continue with traditional practices• Information flows and new collection methods are at the heart
of the RIA. Analytic techniques must change accordingly.
Public Health andHomeland Security Badolato Distinguished Speakers Series
Towson UniversityApril 29, 2011
Nikki Austin, PhD, MA, RN, CNEAssistant Professor
Department of NursingTowson University
Public Health TodayPopulation Based Care
• Violence Prevention• MRSA• Smallpox• Chagus Disease• West Nile Virus• Pandemic/Avian Flu• Obesity• Disaster Preparedness• Health Disparities
• Terrorism– Chemical– Biological– Nuclear – Radiological Dispersion
http://www.whatispublichealth.org/impact/today.html
Public Health
• Public health assessments• Information sharing• Triage priorities from a public health
perspective• Casualty distribution – knowledge of
resources, development of procedures• Disaster preparedness- public motivation(Landesman et al., 2003, p. 4)
Federal Legislation
• Homeland Security Act of 2002– Homeland Security Presidential Directive 5• National• Government & Private Sectors• Crisis and consequence • DHS Secretary to manage incidents• Rubin & Harrald (2006)
– National Response Plan– National Incident Management System
Shared Responsibility• National Culture of Preparedness (Pres. George W. Bush, 5 OCT 2007)
• National Strategy for Homeland Security– All levels of government– Private sector– Communities– All citizens
Community Preparedness Activities
• Citizen Corps– The mission of Citizen Corps is to harness the power of every individual through
education, training, and volunteer service to make communities safer, stronger, and better prepared to respond to the threats of terrorism, crime, public health issues, and disasters of all kinds. http://www.citizencorps.gov/about/
• Medical Reserve Corps– The mission of the MRC is to engage volunteers to strengthen public health, emergency
response and community resiliency. http://www.medicalreservecorps.gov/About
• National Disaster Medical System– It is the mission of the National Disaster Medical System to temporarily supplement
Federal, Tribal, State and Local capabilities by funding, organizing, training, equipping, deploying and sustaining a specialized and focused range of public health and medical capabilities. http://www.phe.gov/preparedness/responders/ndms/Pages/default.aspx
Towson University’s MRC
10th Medical Regiment(Military-
based MRC)
Baltimore County Health
Department
Towson University
Maryland Defense
Force
Towson University – Thinking Outside
• Students, faculty, staff, community• Partner agencies• Education and drills• Student education– Integrated Homeland Security Management• Off campus student projects
– College of Health Professions• Department of Nursing: On and off campus activities
TU, Students, and Community• Student Projects with IHSM 633 (Disaster Response
and Community Health) – Disaster plan in Dunbar High School*– Disaster plan in a church in northern Japan*– Disaster notification plan in a community– Education for rural older adults in W. VA.– Disaster preparedness for an at-risk population in West Baltimore– Disaster plan for the Baltimore City Public Safety Center– Disaster education at Johns Hopkins Hospital*– Disaster preparedness at a senior center on Long Island*Places where disasters occurred after our planning.
• Projects within the Department of Nursing’s Graduate Program– Disaster education with the Bykota Senior Center– Disaster education with the Our Lady of Grace
Parish’s Youth Theater Group– Disaster education in a local elementary school in
Baltimore City
TU, Students, and Community
OPERATION STAT 2010Emergency Preparedness Drill
Thanks to Dr. Agley for the graphics!
Tornado on CampusSituation: Tornado on York Rd from I-695 to Baltimore City. Campus affected, multiple casualties, local authorities overwhelmed, MDDF deployed in Burdick Hall.
Dr. Alves, ED Physician & Dr. Ogle, Nursing Faculty
Nursing Student & Our Lady of Grace Actors
Nursing Students & Our Lady of Grace Actors
Our Lady of Grace Actors and a Mom
Maryland National Guard: Support and Education
Nursing Students and MDDF Chaplain
Evacuation Education at Towson Center
MDDF, Best Ambulance, Nursing Students
Some numbers:•1000 people •Close to 400 Nursing students•Faculty• Nursing• Health Science• Education
•Community partners•Military partners•State agencies•Children from 11 different school districts•Students from campus•Seniors from Bykota Senior Center
Public Health Planning, Preparedness, Education
Simulation to Real Time Public Health Issue: Flu!
References
• Rubin, C. B., & Harrald, J. R. (2006). National response plan, the national incident management system, and the federal response plan. In D. G. Kamien (Ed.). The McGraw-Hill homeland security handbook (pp. 677-688). New York, NY: McGraw-Hill.
• Landesman, L. Y., Malilay, J., Bissel, R. J., et al.,Becker, S. M., Roberts, L., & Ascher, M. S. (2003). Roles and responsibilities of public health in disaster preparedness and response. In L. F. Novick, J. S. Marr (Eds.). Public health issues in disaster preparedness: Focus on bioterrorism (pp. 1-56). Sudbury, MA: Jones and Bartlett.
• Homeland Security Council. (2007). National strategy for homeland security. Retrieved from http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/nat_strat_homelandsecurity_2007.pdf
The Economics of Homeland Security
Daraius Irani
The Department of Homeland Security
The Department of Homeland Security
DHS.gov
Sept. 11th, 2001 Terrorist attacks against the U.S. at the World Trade Center and the Pentagon
Nov. 25th, 2002 President Bush signs the Homeland Security Act creating the DHS. The department will come to employ more than 190,000 people
March 1st, 2003 22 existing agencies from other cabinet level departments are merged together form the first DHS
2003 Creation of The Bureau of Customs and Border Protection focus on security at and between the ports-of-entry along the border
2002
2003
2003 Formation of The Bureau of Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Presently employs more than 20,000 people and is the 2nd largest investigative agency in the Federal Government
The Department of Homeland SecurityThe Department of Homeland Security
Original Agencies
• The U.S. Customs Service (Treasury)
• The Immigration and Naturalization Service (Justice)
• The Transportation Security Administration (Transportation)
• Federal Law Enforcement Training Center (Treasury)
• Office for Domestic Preparedness (Justice)
• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)
• National Domestic Preparedness Office (FBI)
• U.S. Coast Guard (Transportation)
• U.S. Secret Service (Treasury)
Many existing agencies were merged to form the DHSThe largest of which are:
DHS.gov
Series1Other
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
DHS Directives
• Border and Transportation Security• Protection of Critical Infrastructure• Emergency Preparedness and Response• Domestic Counterterrorism• Intelligence and Warning• Defense Against Catastrophic Threats
Border and Transportation Security
Protection of Infra.
EmergPrep.
DomCount.
Intel.
FAS.org
2010 Budget Distribution
DHS Employment and Budget
19951996
19971998
19992000
20012002
20032004
20052006
20072008
20092010
20112012
020406080
100120140160180200
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
National Employment in Thousands by DHSBillion of budget $
Nati
onal
Em
ploy
men
t (Th
ousa
nds)
Billi
ons
of D
olla
rs
OPM and DHS
Before and After DHS Formation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Year Spending on Homeland Security
% of nominal GDP
Private sector labor inputs
Private sector capital inputs
2001 $56 Billion 0.55 $26.5B $9.4B
2005 $99.5 Billion 0.80 $28.7B $16.6 B
Industry Growth as a Result of DHS
• Chemical, biological, and radiological detection• Border, rail, seaport, industrial, and nuclear
plant security • Computer and human resources experts• Boat manufacturers for the Coast Guard• Information and integrated technology
companies• Management consulting firms
USA Today
THE DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY AND MARYLAND
DHS Employment
1998*1999*
2000*2001*
2002*2003
20042005
20062007
20082009
20100
2,0004,0006,0008,000
10,00012,00014,00016,00018,00020,000
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
DC Virginia Maryland
D.C
. Lev
els
MD
and
VA
Lev
els
OPM Employment Cubes
RESI Analysis of DHS Impacts on Maryland 2002-2010
Direct Indirect Induced Total
1,481 684 4,480 6,645
Employment
Direct Indirect Induced Total
$35,602,852 $31,937,779 $184,041,219 $251,581,852
Labor Income
Total
$340,800,185
Value Added to GDP
Maryland Procurement from DHS
Procurement Contracts in 2009:•$14,559,856,536 (U.S. total)
•$1,674,925,917 (Maryland total)
•12% (Maryland share of U.S. total)
Salaries and Wages in 2008:• $12,333,918,562 (U.S. total)• $255,569,717 (Maryland total)• 2.1% (Maryland share of U.S. total)
ChooseMaryland.org
Top 10 FY2010 DHS Contractors
Rank Vendor Name Dollars Obligated
1 International Business Systems (IBM) $557,280,986
2 Lockheed Martin Corporation $427,791,355
3 Unisys Corporation $400,757,376
4 Science Applications International Corporation
$347,251,403
5 Bollinger Shipyards Lockport, LLC $322,491,842
6 Computer Sciences Corporation $311,479,779
7 General Dynamics Advanced Information Systems
$311,304,859
8 Booz Allen Hamilton Inc. $244,373,784
9 L-3 Communications Corporation $236,877,693
10 The Boeing Company $207,544,578
Government Security News 2011
Maryland Higher Education
Multi-year awards ranging between $10 million to $18 million
• Behavioral and sociological aspects of terrorism at the University of Maryland
• High consequence event preparedness and response at Johns Hopkins
FAS.org
DHS AND CYBER SECURITY
Information Technology in Maryland
• From 2009-2014 government spending is expected to grow: 3.5% per year in general IT 8.1% a year in cyber security
• IT Employment Growth (2001-2008) - Maryland: +3.3% - National Average: -17.1%
• Computing Services in Maryland +7.2% employment increase in mid-recession 2009
- Highest growth rate in the nation Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
Cyber Security and Maryland
UMBCMaryland Department of Business & Economic Development
Federal Cyber Security Employment In Maryland
Maryland Department of Business & Economic Development
Military Installation =1000 employees