www.advisian.com
Zoltan Maklary | Principal, Advisian
17 November 2017
Automated Vehicles: lead or follow
Is government ready to decide?
What do we see now?
What about the public?
What is the role of government?
The people will decide
Outline
3.5 billion live in cities today and 7 billion will
live in cities by 2050.
1.2 million people are moving into cities each week.
The number of cars on the road will double by 2050,
even accounting for new technologies.
By 2050 there will be 600% more people on the move
every day.
Sustainable energy and climate change
Increasing computational power
Community expectations
New and evolving industries:
• Automation
• CAVs
• Zero emission vehicles
• Mobility as a Service
• Adaptive traffic management
Economics and industry
$, Choices, Flexibility
Artificial Intelligence
Efficiency and Productivity
Urbanisation and congestion
Many drivers will lead to new technologies and industries
Safety
Energy Legislation
Service
Liability
Support
EmploymentLand usage
Transport
Infrastructure
Government touch points
The speed of uptake depends on public acceptance
Source: Advisian, IPA, UNSW: Automated Vehicles: Do we know which road to take?
A ‘low road’ – where regulation and investment severely
lags AV adoption
A ‘middle road’ – where regulation is responsive, but
follows observed community choices
A ‘high road’- where the government sector ‘pick winners’
in advance of community adoption.
1.
2.
3.
Driving the middle road
Government should take a path of
middle road leadership where
transport policy and investment decisions
neither significantly lead, nor significantly
lag, community choices.
A four phase national process
1. Understand the opportunity
2. Develop legislation and regulation
3. Infrastructure and data collection
4. Planning and choices
Engage with transport industry partners and road users to
benchmark community needs, hesitations and choices regarding AVs
Understand the opportunity1
AVs offer opportunities?
Road safety
Road capacity
Productivity
Convenience
Congestion (?)
Car ownership
Costs Increased
Decreased
Considerations
• How will the public embrace adoption?
• How will AVs affect mobility, urban planning, transport?
• What new laws and regulations will be required?
• How should the introduction of AVs be staged?
• Will it begin with short trip shuttles, a right-of-way for AVs
on assigned, controlled corridors or a mix?
Possible solutions
Regular benchmarking of community and user group opinions
Consult with industry (local and overseas) to gauge emerging trends
and preferences
Significantly increase community engagement and communications
during test and trials
Ensure trials have sound scientific and engineering basis
Develop concurrent federal and state legislation and regulations
to allow AVs and Driverless Vehicles (DVs) to enter Australian roads
Develop legislation and regulation2
The current
situation
Considerations
• How and when will AVs operate legally on Australian Roads?
• At present fully autonomous vehicles are illegal outside of approved trials
• How does the private sector get involved?
• What about security and privacy?
Possible solutions
Earn the trust of the community through open communication
Discuss the real issues, removed from the hype
Clarity around certification for vehicles
Prepare coordinated plans to align legislation
Learn from international experience
Harmonise state and federal legislation
Report on the number, type and location of AVs
entering the vehicle fleet
Plan for the changes we need to make now
to capture the full potential of AVs
Infrastructure and Data Collection3
If roads could talk, we could…
• Understand and respond to opportunities to enable
and enhance the introduction of AVs
• Develop smart infrastructure: vehicle to “anything”
• Fully leverage artificial intelligence and machine learning
• Review and optimise road design
• Plan for change
Possible solutions
Road authorities to switch from asset centric to data centric
• Real time traffic/road condition data for traffic and asset performance
• Adaptive and predictive traffic management
• Seamless multi mode transport management
Investigate cyber resilience
Prepare existing infrastructure – future proof
Assess AV uptake in long-term infrastructure, land use
and wider strategic planning
Identify other opportunities that will emerge
Planning and Choices
4
Possible solutions
A national approach to collecting and sharing information broadly
Identify a programme of potential investments
Engage the federal and state Infrastructure “bodies”
Identify possible adjustments to existing regulations or legislation
Explore options to shift the road funding paradigm
Government should take the middle road
Four-phase national process:
1. Benchmark community attitudes
2. Develop concurrent Federal and state legislation and regulations
3. Report on the number, type and location of AVs entering the vehicle fleet
4. Routinely assess AV uptake and constantly identify opportunities
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This presentation has been prepared by a representative of Advisian.
The presentation contains the professional and personal opinions of the presenter, which are given in good faith. As such, opinions presented herein may not always necessarily reflect the position of
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For more information contact:
Zoltan Maklary
Principal, Advisian
Email: [email protected]