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Analyzing Fleets for Alternative Fuels
Tyler Svitak
Clean Cities Manager
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1. Clean Cities, Refuel Colorado Fleets
2. Alternative Fuel Benefits
3. Lifecycle Cost Factors– Electric– CNG/LPG
4. Fleet Analysis Example– Variable Fleet– Homogenous Fleet
PRESENTATION OVERVIEW
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Lower lifecycle cost
Energy independence, stability
Cleaner burning
2. ALTERNATIVE FUEL INFLUENCES
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Alternative Fuel Benefits
Lower Lifecycle CostROI Opportunities
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LIFECYCLE COSTS
Life cycle cost comparison factors:
• Unit price
• Delivery, shipping, transportation
• Fuel (increasing over time)
• Routine maintenance
• Cost of money over time (net present value)
• Resale value
Price tag is just 1
factor
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• Higher incremental price tag
• Gain ROI through fuel cost reduction– CNG $2.12/gge, LPG $2.56/gge, Electricity $1.14/eGallon
• Fast ROI:– High VMT– High fuel consumption– Home base fueling
Lifecycle Costs
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Class 1: 0-6,000 lbs Plug-in Hybrid or ElectricPassenger Vehicles
-Gallons per year are low, so savings is low for CNG, LPG, etc.
Classes 2 +3: 6,000-14,000 lbs CNG or LPG, bi-fuelPickup trucks & work vans
-No plug-in options in this class-Bi-fuel CNG or LPG options available-Good payback if annual VMT is high
Classes 4-6: 14,001-26,000 lbs CNG or LPG Medium duty trucksSchool and shuttle buses
ElectricMedium duty truck/van
-Good payback if annual VMT is high-Vehicle can be designed for tanks-CNG or LPG medium duty engines exist
-Good if fleet VMT matches driving range-Low fuel/maint costs; fast charging options
Class 7: 26,001-33,000 lbs CNG Short haul trucks, Refuse trucks, Transit buses
-Natural gas heavy duty engines exist-Good payback if annual VMT is high-Vehicle design can fit CNG tanks
Class 8: >33,000 lbs CNG/LNG Long-haul trucks
-Fuel usage too high for CNG-Natural gas heavy duty engines exist-LNG required due to high fuel usage
NO SILVER BULLETAlt Fuels most likely to succeed in each vehicle class:
f
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FUEL PRICE VOLATILITY
DieselRetail price $4.43/GGE
(early 2008)
Distribution and Marketing
26%
42%
9%6%18%
Natural Gas
OperationsMaintenanceAmortization
PipelineElectricity
Taxes
ElectricityRetail price $1.14/eGallon
25%
30%
30%
15%
Fuel Costs
Capital Costs
Transmission and Delivery
Taxes
COSTPER GAL$5.00
$4.00
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
64%
21%
5%
10%
Crude OIl
Taxes
Refining Distribution and Marketing
GasolineRetail price $3.77/GGE
(early 2008)
75%
10%
5%
10%
Crude OIl
Taxes
Refining
CNGRetail price $2.10/GGE
(early 2008)
Source: US DoE EERE, EIA, and NGVA
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Fuel Prices
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• OK, Alt fuels MAY be cheaper… – How much cheaper?– When will I see an ROI?– What is my initial capital cost?
Analysis
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• Comparing Conventional Replacement with Alternative• Operating Costs Only• Lifecycle Analysis isn’t Exact
Lifecycle Cost Factors
Differences Constants
Fuel Economy Annual Mileage
Fuel Consumption Replacement Cycle?
Fuel Type and Price Maintenance Costs?
Fuel Price Over Time?
Vehicle Cost
Incentives, Grants
Maintenance Costs?
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• Simple analysis– Groups of similar vehicles– Consistent duty cycles, operations
• Trucking operations, HVAC, aggregate, refuse
– 2 EXAMPLE
• Comprehensive fleet analysis– Variable fleets with multiple duty-cycles– Long term planning
• Large government, corporate fleets
– EXAMPLE
Analysis Detail
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Simple Analysis - AFDC
• http://www.afdc.energy.gov/tools/• http://www.afdc.energy.gov/calc/
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Simple Analysis - Excel
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Comprehensive Analysis - Excel
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• Vehicle Availability– OEM vs. Conversion
• Daily Range vs. Vehicle Range• Infrastructure Location vs. Vehicle Location• Space/tank limitations• Performance is NOT an issue
Limiting Factors
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• Analysis doesn’t cover:– Infrastructure Cost– Vehicle Service– Maintenance Bay Upgrades
• Operating savings will determine justification
Considerations
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• Products are proven• ROI opportunities can be found within most fleets• The problem is only going to get worse
– Rising fuel prices– Volatile fuel budgets
• It’s a process – but a process worth making… so, PLAN NOW!!
Conclusion
Mike Ogburn CleanEnergyEconomy.net
Maria Eisemann NorthernColoradoCleanCities.org
Tyler Svitak DenverCleanCities.org