AEI Industry Seminars 2007Education opportunities in Latin America
Opportunities in Latin America for Victorian education and training
Tony CrooksBlue Yonder: Global Education Strategies
Education opportunities in Latin America
Objective of the study
A Latin America Education Engagement strategy for Victoria that:
•identifies regional markets suited to Victorian capabilities
•identifies export opportunities
•defines barriers, constraints and challenges
•aligns sectors with markets
•articulates the role of DIIRD within the strategy
•recommends marketing channels/communications
Education opportunities in Latin America
Methodology
Desk research
Meetings with State sectoral groups
Interviews with individual institutions
Consultation with Australian government agencies
Consultation with Latin American governments/bodies
Interviews with education agents
Student focus groups
Education opportunities in Latin America
Latin America region
22(ish) countries
14% of Earth’s land surface
9% of world population
Racially/ethnically diverse
80% urban population
50% of world’s Catholics
8% of world GDP
Growth in 2010: 5.7%
Education opportunities in Latin America
A “Latin America decade”?
15% of world’s oil reserves • large stock of minerals
25% of world’s arable land • 30% of fresh water
If current growth maintained: per capita income US$22,000 by 2025
Challenges
Income distribution most unequal in the world
Lowest growth in productivity in the world
Little innovation (other than agriculture)
Education opportunities in Latin America
Regional educational environment
Close to MDG of universal primary education by 2015
Education standards often low
Average youth literacy rate of 96% (world rate 87%)
70% commence secondary, but drop-out rate high
Females outnumber males secondary/tertiary education
Tertiary education transformed from elite to mass system
Tertiary enrolment has grown 10-fold since 1970 to 18m
Education opportunities in Latin America
Regional educational environment (2)
Argentina, Mexico, Venezuela – growth in public system
Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Peru – growth in private sector
Non-university tertiary sector (VET): 32% tertiary enrolments in Chile, 30% in Brazil, 28% in Venezuela
University curriculum organised around licenciatura
Professional disciplines have high social prestige
Drop-out rates around 50%
Only 4% of university enrolments at postgraduate level
1 in 10 academics has PhD; 1 in 4 has PG qualification
Education opportunities in Latin America
Latin American student flows
Participation rate in international mobility < 1%
Even intra-regional mobility low (though growing)
Preferred destinations for higher education Europe, then USA (for Mexico, USA then Europe)
Growing awareness of Australia in Chile and Colombia in particular
Education opportunities in Latin America
Fourfold increase over 5 years 2004 – 2009
Fastest growth rate of any region for Australia
In 2009, contributed 34% of global growth in ELICOS enrolments
In 2009, contributed 6.5% of all commencements
Brazil only top ten source market outside of Asia
Latin Americans in Australia: headlines
Education opportunities in Latin America
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
+34%
+31%
+37%
+45%
+19%
Latin American enrolments in Australia 2001-2009: All sectors
AEI
Education opportunities in Latin America
Latin American enrolments 2009: Breakdown by sector
HE 9%
VET 30%
Schools 1%
ELICOS 58%
Other 2%
Education opportunities in Latin America
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10
Chile PeruBrazil Colombia
Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: All sectors
-9%
+4%
+66%+6%
Mexico Venezuela
0%+3%
Education opportunities in Latin America
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10
Chile PeruBrazil Colombia
Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: Higher Education
-14%
+17%
+73%
+2%
Mexico Venezuela
-24%
+5%
Education opportunities in Latin America
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10
Chile PeruBrazil Colombia
Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: VET
+22%
+23%
+76%
+6%
Mexico Venezuela
+19%
+17%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Australia’s top 10 VET source markets 2010
by YTD commencements
8th
↓
Education opportunities in Latin America
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
'09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10 '09 '10
Chile PeruBrazil Colombia
Commencements Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009: ELICOS (570)
-13%
-6%
+80%
-11%
Mexico Venezuela
-8%-9%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Australia’s top 10 ELICOS source markets 2010
3rd
↓ 7th
↓
by YTD commencements
Education opportunities in Latin America
+2% +6%
+2%
-11%
Brazil commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
Education opportunities in Latin America
Chile commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
-14% -13%+22%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Colombia commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
-6%
+17%+23%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Mexico commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
+17%+5% -9%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Peru commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
-24%
+19%
-8%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Venezuela commencements by sector Jan-Sept 2010 vs 2009
+60%+76%
+80%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Latin American enrolments 2009: Breakdown by State
NSW 44%
QLD 30%
VIC 14%
WA 10%
Other 2%
Education opportunities in Latin America
Enrolments 2009 by State: Latin America vs global
NSW 44%
QLD 30%
VIC 14%WA 10%
Other 2%
NSW 38%
QLD 16%
VIC 30%
WA 8%
Other 8%
LATIN AMERICA
GLOBAL
Education opportunities in Latin America
Compound annual growth rate by State 2005 - 2009
0 10 20 30 40 50
NSW
QLD
WA
VIC
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from Victorian institutions
Unanimous support for the DIIRD initiative
Openness to engage cooperatively as State
Colombia top priority
Brazil No. 2 priority for many; others ambivalent
No clear 3rd priority: Chile, Mexico often mentioned
Frustration over Australia’s “sun’n’fun” positioning
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from Victorian institutions (2)
Success: iconic brand or strong agent relations
Pressure on tuition fees and agents’ commissions
Nervousness around DIAC intentions for ALs
Some institutions picking up students on-shore; others
losing them on-shore
Support for: agent development, in-bound delegations,
Victorian education fair, scholarships, website/material in
Spanish/Portuguese, internships
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from agents
Low awareness of Victoria (with exceptions)
Victoria currently least cohesive of States in approach
Promote the city rather than the State
50%+ students do not know their destination
Melbourne has best word-of-mouth
Even in Brazil, clear scope for growth – problem is not
the destination but relationship with agents
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from agents (2)
Markets are cost-sensitive
Victorian ELICOS more expensive than elsewhere
Availability of work is critical
Target demographic is 26-35
Would welcome: agent fam tour, Victorian education fair,
internships, joint targeting of companies, promotional
material especially posters
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from students in Chile/Brazil
All were using an agent
Info sources: (1) agent (2) friends (3) teachers (4) internet (5) fairs
For most, Victoria not in consideration set
Little info available about Victoria/Melbourne
Agents had not mentioned Victoria
Most students had contacts in Australia
Cost important, but can be over-ridden
Opportunity to work part-time is critical
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from students in Chile/Brazil (2)
Safety is assumed
Migration not a driver
Sydney: “where everything happens in Australia”
Brisbane: organised and quiet
Perth: beautiful but remote
Melbourne: cosmopolitan, cultured, high quality education
Deterred by availability and cost of accommodation, cost of transport
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from students in Sydney/Brisbane
All had been placed by an agent
None had considered Melbourne
Info sources: (1) agent (2) WOM (3) internet
Drivers: (1) climate (2) cost (3) beach (4) migration
Several unhappy with courses, but all would recommend their city
Melbourne: cold, poor climate, attracts “quiet students”
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from students in Melbourne
All placed by agent, but several had requested Melbourne
Attraction: reputation for quality; iconic brand
USA over-familiar; UK too costly; Sydney too costly
Cost important; availability of work critical
Available work not commensurate with skills
Only one attracted by migration opportunities
Very high degree of satisfaction with courses and with city
Education opportunities in Latin America
Feedback from students in Melbourne (2)
Main attractions of living in Melbourne:
- Availability, frequency, standard of public transport
- Parks and gardens
- Access to culture
Multiculturalism – mainly positive, but mixed response
Main drawbacks of living in Melbourne:
- Cost of public transport
- Public safety concerns
- “Third world” internet infrastructure
Education opportunities in Latin America
Conclusions: general
Awareness-raising critical, particularly in Brazil
Essential to cultivate agents prepared to work for Victoria
Need to be highly selective in pursuing opportunities
Leverage quality reputation: Victoria as “Education State”
Target high end of market, not high-volume discount end
80% of Latin American students in Australia are from Colombia or Brazil
Two-speed strategy: Colombia productive in short-term, Brazil longer-term
Education opportunities in Latin America
Colombia
1,000 enrolments in Australia in 2004 – 10,000 in 2009
Recent growth has been concentrated in Australia/NZ
Accounts for 31% of all enrolments out of Latin America
Accounts for one-third of all HE enrolments
Victoria market leader in HE sector – 38% share
Loan-scholarships for HE, VET, ELICOS students
Minimal provision within Colombia for PG education
VET has grown in spite of downgrade of AL
Now major ELICOS market – with long-term students
No barrier to Victoria becoming market leader
Education opportunities in Latin America
Brazil
Potential market, according to BELTA, of 250,000
25% of market going to Canada
8,000 per year in higher education in USA
3,000 per year in NZ
By far the strongest university system in Latin America
Scholarships for PG students to be unlocked
Challenge to gain agent attention – perhaps work on agents outside Australian comfort zone
Regional approach recommended
Target Canadian/NZ market share for Victoria
Education opportunities in Latin America
Chile
2005-2009 annual growth rate to Australia 48%
Small country with low outbound mobility
Possible that Australian market may be plateauing?
WOM for Victoria strong – possible to grow share
Changes to Bicentennial Scholarships – mixed outcomes for Victorian universities
Funding available for university collaboration
Técnicos para Chile scholarships – Australia major beneficiary in first round
Consulting opportunities in VET, ELICOS
Education opportunities in Latin America
Other markets
Mexican Study Abroad in decline, but PG rising
Mexican HE funding sources undersubscribed
Fewer opportunities in VET/ELICOS
Peru – rapid growth has come to sudden halt
VET most interesting – but impact of migration policy?
Venezuela – 66% growth from small base
HE, VET, ELICOS all beneficiaries
Victoria market leader in all sectors
Education opportunities in Latin America
Identifying priority markets by sector
Potential priorities identified by evaluating:
• Global volume • Australian volume • Australian growth potential• Victorian market share• Victorian market share growth potential• Strategic value
Education opportunities in Latin America
Suggested priority markets by sector
Priority level HE VET ELICOS
Priority 1 Colombia Colombia Colombia
Priority 2 Brazil Brazil Brazil
Priority 3 Mexico Chile Chile
Secondary markets Chile Peru Venezuela
Venezuela