Dr Karyn Bosomworth (& SCARP)RMIT University
Adaptation pathways planning
context
Clean Energy Future Plan: Land Sector Measures
Regional NRM Planning for Climate Change Fund
Stream 1SEWPAC
Stream 2DIICCSRTE
Element 1: National CC Projections CSIRO & BoM
Element 2: NRM CC Impacts &
Adaptation Research Program
Stream 1 AdaptNRM & CMAs
Stream 2 Research (Eg SCARP)
context
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Southern Slopes Climate Change Adaptation Research Partnership
CSIRO 2014
research approach: co-design, -analysis & -production (PAR)
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Scoping meetings
Focus groups and interviews
Planning workshops
Build relationshipsDefine scope
Understand contextSupport plannersEngage partners
Generate ideas Identify projects
four ‘needs’/ projects identified
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• support spatial analysis (CO2 seques’n)
• synthesise impacts & adapt’n info
• knowledge exchange
• manage for change (range of futures….)
Southern Slopes Information Portal
adaptation pathways
• ‘whats’• ‘whys’• ‘hows’•where to…..
Adaptation pathways - SCARP 7
Adaptation pathways - SCARP
adaptation pathways – what is it?
Hassnoot et al 2013
Seed Consulting 2014
• robust and flexible strategies
• strategic rather than reactive
• dialogue
• from risk assessments to action planning
• allows action now with eye to long-term
• synergies with best practice NRM
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why pathways?
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adaptation pathways – what’s involved?
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adaptation pathways – establish goals & objectives
• asset/ landscape area scale • pathways aim• climate change-ready? (Dunlop et al 2013)
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adaptation pathways – current situation analysis
Explore ‘problem structure’• history• stakeholders• values divergence• system uncertainty• scales• capacities H
igh
syst
ems
unce
rtai
nty
Judgement: experiment, evaluation
Inspiration: learning, leadership, reframing, participation, social
learning
Low
sys
tem
s un
cert
aint
y
Computational: analysisBargaining: trade-offs,
reframing, collaborating?
Low value divergence (close to agreement)
High values divergence (far from agreement)
adaptation pathways – futures analysis
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• RCP8.5 high emissions• RCP4.5 & 6.0 intermediate• RCP2.6 very low emission
DRAFT
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adaptation pathways – develop pathways
Seed Consulting 2013
Hassnoot et al 2013
adaptation pathways – relationship to existing planning
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adaptation pathways & SCARP
Adaptation pathways - SCARP
Upcoming workshops • East Gipps - 17 Sep• Vic CMA forum - 23 Sep• SCARP CMAs – 24 Sep• NCCARF Conf – 30 Sept• GH CMA – 8 Oct• VASP PP – 22 Oct• Corang CMA – 10 Nov• ………..
Thank you
17Adaptation pathways - SCARP