A National Grid Fit For The Future Chris J Murray. Newton Institute - 26th May 2010
National Grid
UK and US
Electricity and Gas
Transmission and Distribution
England and Wales
transmission owner
National system
operator
Our role is being
redefined
The energy world is changing – utilities playing a critical role in a sustainable future
Today’s evolving market
Distributed generation
Energy efficiency
Infrastructure enhancement
Smart grid
Demand management
Wind sources
Solar sources
Clean technology
Energy storage
Coal/gas fired power station
Energy volume drives energy
company revenue
Small range of conventional technologies
Large centralised generation
Static infrastructure
$$$
Price and reliability are main determinants of customer choice
Energy flows to users
Gas productionHydro-electric power
Nuclear power station
Energy flows to users
Industrial and
commercial
Traditional energy market
Climate change is driving an energy revolution
SustainabilitySustainability
AffordabilityAffordabilitySecurity of
supplySecurity of
supply
Impact of UK generation closures on plant margin*
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2020/21
Demand Nuclear Coal & Oil Gas Margin
* Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.
Best view of new UK generation
(20)%
(15)%
(10)%
(5)%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2020/21
CCGT Renewable Clean Coal Nuclear Existing margin
* Margin refers to the difference between the total generation capacity and total demand.
The changing generation mix
Transmission connected generation (GW)
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
2010
2020
2030
Gas Coal CCS Wind Other Renewable Nuclear Interconnectors
Existing / potential interconnectors
Ireland
NorthernIreland
France
Belgium
Netherlands
Norway
France
Existing
Under construction
Possible future
Offshore wind
390MW currently connected
8,806MW contracted for future connection
Developer information provided indicates 14.3GW of Offshore Renewables by end of 2020
More to do!
UK Strategic investment (electricity)
Sizewell
Pembroke
Osbaldwick
Rowdown
BeddingtonChessington
West
Landulph
Abham
Exeter
Axminster
Chickerell
Mannington
Taunton
Alverdiscott
Hinkley Point
Bridgwater
Aberthaw
Cowbridge
Pyle
Margam
SwanseaNorth
CardiffEast
Tremorfa
Alpha Steel
UskmouthUpper Boat
Cilfynydd
ImperialPark
Rassau
Whitson
Seabank
Iron Acton
Walham
Melksham
Minety DidcotCulham
Cowley
Bramley
Fleet
Nursling
Fawley Botley Wood
Lovedean
Bolney
Ninfield
Dungeness
Sellindge
Canterbury
E de F
Kemsley
Grain
Kingsnorth
Rayleigh Main
Littlebrook
Tilbury
Warley
Barking
Redbridge
W.HamCity Rd
Tottenham
BrimsdownWaltham
Ealing
Mill HillWillesden
Watford
St Johns
Wimbledon
New Hurst
Elstree
Rye House
N.Hyde
Sundon
Laleham
Iver
Amersham Main
Wymondley
Pelham
Braintree
BurwellMain
Bramford
EatonSocon
Grendon
EastClaydon
Enderby
Walpole
NorwichMain
Coventry
Berkswell
Rugeley
Cellarhead
IronbridgeBushbury
Penn
Willenhall
OckerHill
KitwellOldbury
Bustleholm
NechellsHamsHall
BishopsWood
Feckenham
Legacy
Trawsfynydd
Ffestiniog
Dinorwig
Pentir
Wylfa
Deeside
Capenhurst Frodsham
Fiddlers
Rainhill
KirkbyListerDrive
Birkenhead
WashwayFarm
Penwortham
Carrington
SouthManchester
Daines
Macclesfield
Bredbury
Stalybridge
Rochdale
WhitegateKearsley
Elland
Stocksbridge
WestMelton
Aldwarke
Thurcroft
BrinsworthJordanthorpe
Chesterfield
Sheffield CityNeepsend
Pitsmoor
Templeborough ThorpeMarsh
Keadby
WestBurton
Cottam
HighMarnham
Staythorpe
Stanah
Heysham
Padiham
Hutton
BradfordWest Kirkstall Skelton
Poppleton
Thornton
Quernmore
Monk
EggboroughFerrybridge
Killingholme
SouthHumberBank Grimsby
West
Drax
Lackenby
Greystones
GrangetownSaltholme
Norton
Spennymoor
Tod Point
Hartlepool
Hart Moor
Hawthorne Pit
Offerton
West Boldon
South Shields
Tynemouth
StellaWest
Harker
Eccles
Blyth
IndianQueens
Coryton
RatcliffeWillington
Drakelow
Shrewsbury
Cross
Weybridge
Cross
Wood
North
FrystonGrange
Ferry
Winco Bank
Norton Lees
Creyke Beck
Saltend North
Saltend South
Hackney
BaglanBay
LeightonBuzzard
PatfordBridge
Northfleet EastSinglewell
Fourstones
Humber Refinery
SpaldingNorth
West Thurrock
ISSUE A 02-12-08 41/177609 C Collins Bartholomew Ltd 1999
Dingwall
Dounreay
Newarthill
Cumbernauld
Kincardine
WishawStrathaven
KilmarnockSouth
Ayr
Coylton
Inveraray
HelensburghDunoon
Inverkip
DevolMoor
Hunterston
Sloy
Fort William
Bonnybridge
Neilston
Ceannacroc
Conon
Fort Augustus
Foyers
Inverness
Stornoway
Elvanfoot
Kaimes
Glenrothes
Westfield
Grangemouth
Longannet
Linmill
Bathgate
Errochty Power Station
Torness
Cockenzie
Keith
Thurso
FasnakyleBeauly
Deanie
Lairg
Shin
Nairn
Kintore
Blackhillock
Elgin
Keith
Peterhead
Persley
Fraserburgh
InvergarryQuoich
CulligranAigas
Kilmorack
GrudieBridge
Mossford
OrrinLuichart
Alness
Brora
Cassley
Dunbeath
Mybster
St. Fergus
Strichen
Macduff
Boat ofGarten
Redmoss
Willowdale
Clayhills
Dyce
Craigiebuckler
Woodhill
Tarland
DalmallyKillin
Errochty
Tealing
GlenagnesDudhope
Milton of Craigie
Dudhope
Lyndhurst
CharlestonBurghmuir
Arbroath
Fiddes
Bridge of Dun
Lunanhead
St. Fillans
Finlarig
Lochay
Cashlie
Rannoch
TummelBridge
Clunie
Taynuilt
Nant
Cruachan
PortAnn
Carradale
Auchencrosh
Lambhill
ClydesMill
Glenluce
NewtonStewart
Maybole
Dumfries Ecclefechan
Berwick
Hawick
Galashiels
Dunbar
Meadowhead
Saltcoats
HunterstonFarm
SP TRANSMISSION LTD.
Kilwinning
Currie
Cupar
Leven
Redhouse
Glenniston
SCOTTISH HYDRO-ELECTRICTRANSMISSION
Telford Rd.Gorgie
KilmarnockTown
Busby
Erskine
Strathleven
MossmorranDunfermline
Broxburn
Livingston
Whitehouse
ShrubhillPortobello
Devonside
StirlingWhistlefield
SpangoValley
Ardmore
Broadford
Dunvegan
NGC
Easterhouse
EastKilbrideSouth
Gretna
Chapelcross
THE SHETLAND ISLANDS
Tongland
GlenMorrison
Clachan
400kV Substations275kV Substations400kV CIRCUITS275kV CIRCUITS
Major Generating Sites Including Pumped Storage
Connected at 400kVConnected at 275kVHydro Generation
TRANSMISSION SYSTEM REINFORCEMENTS
Langage
BlacklawWhitelee
Iverkeithing
Marchwood
BickerFenn
Coalburn
REINFORCED NETWORK
Under Construction or ready to startConstruction subject to consents
Reinforcements in Development.Pre - Construction Activities only
Series Capacitors
New 400kV CCT between Hinkley & Seabankprovides capacity for offshore windCCGT/Nuclear
New Circuit for 710MW contractedonshore wind2015
Additional 400kV double circuit to Pentir+3GW new generation capacityoffshore/Wylfa
HVDC Link increases capacity by up to1.8GW2015
Advance asset replacement at Deeside400kV substation.
Reconductor +Series Capacitorsincrease B6by 1GW2015
HVDC Link increases capacity by up to1.8GW2018
HVDC Link from Humber to Walpoleprovides 3GW offshore wind/CCGT 2018
Complete Bramford Substation andnew 400kV line to Braintree 2016Capacity for 5GW wind/nuclearCCGT.
Focus on ScotlandDriven by onshore renewables
Focus on East CoastDriven by offshore renewables / nuclear
Focus on South & WestDriven by nuclear/wind
£4.7bn onshore investment identified
Where’s the UK’s gas coming from?
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
00/01 02/03 04/05 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21
bcm
/ y
ear
UKCS Norway LNG Continent Demand inc exports
Actual Forecast
UK gas transmission load related investment
New Norway
West of Shetland
New continental link
New southern basin developments
Langeled
Bacton
TheddlethorpeEasington
Teesside
St Fergus
Barrow
Milford Haven
Grain LNG
recent construction
future potential investment
LNG importation
Terminal
existing network
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
demand capacity
mcm
/dPotential gas world…….
Capacity far exceeds demand
Will new storage be built?
Norwegian
UKCS
LNG
Continent
•How confident are we that the molecules will turn up?
•What investment is required for security of supply
In 2020 - 80% of gas is imported and over 50% of electricity relies on gas
What does this mean for gas transmission?
New Norway
West of Shetland
Langeled
Bacton
TheddlethorpeEasington
Teesside
St Fergus
Barrow
Milford Haven
Grain LNG
New southern basin developments
New continental
link
Its not just electricity investment…
Carbon Cap Storage
Future investmentRecent investmentTerminal construction
LNG importation
Scotland
Teesside
Humber
Liverpool Bay
Cluster Region
CO2 volume
Scotland 18Mt
Teesside 11Mt
Humber 60Mt
Liverpool Bay*
10Mt
Thames 28Mt
Gas transportation
Network flexibility becomes increasingly important
2010 Demand is a given Second by second balancing achieved by
flexing generation
Future Dynamic demand Smart meters Storage Flexing generation
2010 Major flows from UKCS & Norway
Future Less UKCS Variable flows from Norway, European
interconnectors & LNG
Balancing the UK networks
Electricity Gas
But… we have a skills gap to manage…
Our Challenges and Opportunities
Developing future
networks
Decline of UKCS
Transition to a low carbon
economy
2020 EU Targets Thinking about 2050
Ageing Assets
Security of supply
Planning + Strategic
Investment
Changing economic
climate
Affordability
Thank you