TAMPA / WESTSHOREMULTI-FAMILY UPDATE
Presented by:
Phillip A. Smith
Westshore Development Forum
April 21, 2015
TOPICS
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• Economic Trends
• Jobs, the Renter, and the Investor
• Rent Growth
• Regional Job Growth
• Tampa’s Supply & Demand
• Challenges Facing our Rental Market
• Pipeline
NATIONAL TRENDS
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Jobs• As of year-end 2014, US recovered 88% of jobs lost in the
recessionThe Renter• Millenials
• Stagnant wages
• Pressure to repay over $1 trillion in student loans
The Investor• Increased pension, endowment and life co. capital
• Family office/private wealth
• Increased asset sale prices and demand for new projects
Sources: Wall Street Journal, PWC Emerging Trends in Real Estate 2015, Marcus & Millichap National Apartment Report
2014
• Expanding mature renter
• The “golf course retirement” model losing its luster
• Current rent-by-choice lifestyle offers more than in the past
NATIONAL TRENDS—Rent Growth
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
Source: Axiometrics, Inc.
NATIONAL EFFECTIVE RENT GROWTH
REGIONAL JOB GROWTH
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FLORIDA
*
SOUTHEAST
US
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
- 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500
YO
Y G
row
th
YO
Y G
row
th
Jobs (1,000s) Jobs (1,000s)
Orlando
Miami
Jacksonville
Tallahassee
Palm Bay
Naples
Tampa (5.3%
Unemployment)
Dallas AtlantaCharlotte Raleigh
Austin
Houston
Memphis
Nashville
Columbia
Greenville
Tampa
*But, biggest recent job creation was in Leisure & Hospitality,
and Trade, Transportation & Utilities (includes Retail).
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE-DRIVEN GROWTH
THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING
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Source: ARA Florida Multifamily Snapshot Q1 2015
SUPPLY HIGHLIGHTSTotal Inventory: 157,687 units
Peak Inventory: 159,296 units (2004)
Class A Occupancy: 95.4%
'14 Production: 5,000 units (approx.)
'15-'16 Production: 3,000-3,500 units (projected)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
20
09
201
0
20
11
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
Annual Average ‘00-’14
Annual Average ‘00-’05
TAMPA APARTMENT DELIVERIES
THE SUPPLY SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING
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WESTSHORE’S SUPPLY PIPELINE
4310 Spruce 262 units
Crescent
Westshore374 units
Grady Square 557 units
Varela 350 units
3
2
6
1
4
5
4
21
6
7
3
Rocky Point
Redstone/Austin7
5
MetWest 254 units
THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING
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TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Buying @ $1,500/mo.
$200,000 FHA MORTGAGE @ 5.049%
Median Price per SF: $106
Median Size @ $200k: 1,887 SF
CASH REQUIRED AT CLOSING
Down Payment: $7,000
Origination Fee: $1,005
Transfer Taxes: $1,100
Insurance: $1,476
Deposits & Misc. Fees: $5,269
TOTAL: $15,850
MONTHLY HOUSING EXPENSES
Mortgage Pmt: $938
Taxes: $287
Insurance: $246
TOTAL: $1,471
Source: Zillow.com and Zillow Real Estate Research
THE DEMAND SIDE OF RENTAL HOUSING
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METRO AREATYPICAL
RENT/SF
UNIT SIZE @
$1,500/MO.
Westshore $1.60 938 SF
Downtown Tampa $1.95 769 SF
Channelside $2.10 714 SF
SoHo/Bayshore $2.20 682 SF
TYPICAL AMENITIES
- On-site Gym - On-site Spa
- Pool - Demonstration Kitchens
- Balconies/Terraces - Gaming Areas
- Clubhouses - Pet Spas, Dog Parks
TAMPA HOUSING ALTERNATIVES: Renting @ $1,500/mo.
TAMPA’S AFFORDABILITY CHALLENGE
Source: Zillow Real Estate Research
Atlanta
Dallas
Nashville
Jacksonville
Sacramento
Tampa = 32% of mo. income on
rentPhoenix
Chicago
Philadelphia
Boston
Seattle
Portland
WESTSHORE’S WALKABILITY CHALLENGE
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Westshore delivers on accessibility but should become more
pedestrian-friendly
ACTIVE PROJECTS AT FRAMEWORK
GROUPVARELA• Lois Ave & Spruce St
• 350 Units
• 5-story w/ structured
parking
• Completion 2015
4310 SPRUCE• 262 Units
• 5-story w/ structured
parking
• Completion 2016
HARBOUR
ISLAND• Knights Run &
Harbour Post
• 235 Units
• 21-story high rise
• Completion 2016
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ON THE BOARD AT FRAMEWORK GROUP
PERSPECTIVE RENDERING
CROSLAND, INC.
LAKE COPELAND RESIDENTIAL PROJECT4750 New Broad St reet ; O rlando, Florida 32814
Tel: 407.422.3330 | Fax: 407.422.3329 | www.MSCWinc.com
NOTE: THE INFORMATION PROVIDED ON THIS DOCUMENT SHOULD BE TREATED AS CONCEPTU AL ONLY AND MAY BE SUBJECT TO CHANGE BASED ON MORE DET AILED SURVEY, ENVIRONMENTAL AND SPECIFIC BUILDING PRODUCT INFORMATION. © 2006 MSCW , INC.
PRO JECT N UMBER: 070121
D AT E: 07/ 16/ 2007
FILE PAT H : G:\ Jobs\07\070121\Creat ive
VIEW 1 -FROM EAST SIDE OF LAKE COPELAND
YBOR CITY
SARASOTA
ORLANDO
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CONCLUSION
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• Investment in the multi-family sector is still robust;
• Rent growth is steady;
• Supply appears to be in check in terms of total
numbers, but mostly at the high-end;
• Regional job growth is steady, but mostly at the
low-end;
• Need more new high-quality jobs;
• Wages are still stagnant, creating future
affordability concerns;
• Need to maintain continued focus on Westshore’s
urban plan, transportation and walkability
solutions to maintain competitive edge for
attracting new businesses.