3 Steps to Zero Emissions- Intelligent Grid, Electric Cars and Solar Energy
Chris DunstanResearch Principal- Institute for Sustainable Futures, UTS
Presentation to ANZSES NSW23 June 2009
Summary
Intelligent Grid Research Program Network Investment: Bigger or smarter? Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Electric Cars Solar Energy
e.g. permanent Arctic ice may disappear by 2030
Reduced ice albedo(reflectivity)= positive feedback
... the melting of Greenland ice cap may become unstoppable and raise global sea level by 7 metres
International Climate Science Congress (Copenhagen March 2009)
Key Messages:
“1. Climatic trends: Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived.
These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts.
climatecongress.ku.dk/pdf/synthesisreport
Elements of Intelligent Grid
Power Stations
Transmission
Distribution
Customer
Sensors, data collection and Automation:
Predictive and “Self Healing”
Distributed Energy: • Peak Demand Management - DSR• Energy Efficiency• Distributed Generation• Energy Storage• Smart Meters, • Time of Use pricing• Real time displays• Advanced Communications
• Electric Cars
Transmission Data Collection and Automation
Figure Source: Southern California Edison & CPUC
Using information, communications and control technologies to integrate the electricity network with “distributed energy” resources.
Intelligent Grid Research Program
1: Control Methodology
of DG
2: Market & Economic
Modelling
3: Optimal Siting & Dispatch
of DG
4: Instit Barriers, Stakeholder
Engagement & EconomicModelling
5: I Grid Social Impacts
6: I Grid in New
Housing Development
7: OperationalControl &
Energy Management
Economic regulatory barriers & solutions
DANCE Model:
Avoidable Network
Costs
D-CODE Model:
Costs of Distributed
Energy
CSIRO
InstitutionalBarriers
QUT UTS Curtin Uni UniSAUni of Qld Uni of Qld QUT
Engagement:Australian
Distributed Energy
Roadmap
3-Year Collaborative Research (July 2008- June 2011) Engagement with industry, regulators, policy makers, etc.
Aim: Aim: to facilitate major greenhouse gas emission reductions by integrating distributed energy technology with a more intelligent electricity network.
Networks and Climate Change
More Climate Change
More Greenhouse gas
emissions
More (fossil fuel) power generation
More Network Capacity
Electricity Supply Interruptions
More Storms, Heatwaves, etc
Networks and Climate Change
“$50 billion of further investment in national and local energy grids is necessary to meet Australia’s carbon reduction goals. If this doesn’t occur, we all face an increased risk of being left to sweat out decades of long hot summers.
We know it is going to get warmer and we have to prepare for that – this last week has been a warning to us all – we need to act today to climate change proof our networks and to be climate change ready.”
-Andrew Blyth, CEO Energy Networks Association,
2 February 2009, Canberra
http://www.ena.asn.au/udocs/ena_020309_100854.pdf
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - USA“United States could reduce emissions by 31% to 46% by 2030”
Greenhouse Abatement Opportunities - Australia
D-CODE: Details and Cost of Distributed Energy
NSW Case Study:
Meeting NSW Electricity Needs to 2020 with lower costs and lower emissions
Scenarios for meeting the NSW power needs to 2020
Scenario 1 – COAL (approximates Owen Inquiry outcome) 1000 MW coal power station 2017 two 500 MW open cycle gas turbines in 2018 & 2019
Scenario 2 – GAS (~NEMMCO projections) combination of open cycle and combined cycle gas
Scenario 3 - Cogeneration and Demand Side Response
Scenario 4 - Energy efficiency and Demand Side Response
Scenario 5 - Combined distributed energy energy efficiency, cogeneration, and demand side response, and Allows 1000 MW coal fired capacity retirement in 2014/15.
12,000
13,000
14,000
15,000
16,000
17,000
18,000
19,000
20,000
200
8/0
9
200
9/1
0
201
0/1
1
201
1/1
2
201
2/1
3
201
3/1
4
201
4/1
5
201
5/1
6
201
6/1
7
201
7/1
8
201
8/1
9
201
9/2
0
CA
PA
CIT
Y (
MW
)
Exisiting or planned capacity Demand side responseCogeneration
Capacity needed for reliability
Energy efficiency
NSW capacity projections to 2020 with DE
$15
$17
$19
$21
$23
$25
$27
$29
$31
$33
$35
Coal Gas Cogen and DSR Energyefficiency and
DSR
Combineddistributed
energy
Bil
lio
n $
200
9 –
202
0
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
Existing supply - variable cost Network capital - amortized costNew supply - amortized capital cost New supply - variable cost
87.686.4 85.4 84.7
79.2
75
80
85
90
Mt
CO
2-e
per
yea
r
Million Tonnes CO2-e in 2020
Scenario cumulative costs & 2020 emissions
Energy efficiency, cogeneration, and Demand Side Response can meet capacity shortfall
Not acting on DE will mean higher: – energy consumption, greenhouse emissions, network
costs, generation costs, carbon abatement cost and consumer power bills
So, are we investing in Distributed Energy?
Australian Energy Regulator’s Network Pricing Decision (2009-14)
$16.9 billion in Network Capital Expenditure (2009-14)– 80% increase on the previous five years– $2,400 per person in NSW– $9.3 million per day
For Energy Australia customers– Average network prices increase by 99% (nominal)– up to 172% for domestic customers– Average retail price to rise by ~40% (excl. CPRS cost)
Little direct support for Distributed Energy
Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
$m p
.a.
Financial Year
NSW
Qld
Vic
SA
Can we afford a much bigger grid and much smarter grid at the same time?
Distribution Network Capital Expenditure
1
[1] Energy Australia, Revised Regulatory Proposal and Interim Submission, January 2009, p. 190
Energy Australia Indicative Network Charges
Network Prices to Rise (by up to 172%)(Real Retail Prices up: 51% for small consumers; 34% for large consumers)
Energy Consumption Forecast to fall
(AER Determination, Fig. 6.2, p. 114)
Peak Demand Forecast to rise (2.7% per annum)
Forecast Peak Demand Growth
5600
5800
6000
6200
6400
6600
6800
7000
2009–10 2010–11 2011–12 2012–13 2013–14
Year
MW
Original forecast(June 2008)
Revised forecast(January 2009)
AER Determination, Table 6.4
How to stimulate Distributed Energy investment?
DE Technology Assessment:
Costs, Scale, Limitations
Institutional Barriers
What obstructs cost-effective DE?Status
(current and progress)
Defining Distributed EnergyEnergy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation
Demand ForecastingEnergy and Peak Load
(NEMMCO)
Policy Instruments
Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome?
Avoidable Network Costs(time and place)
Potential(current and
future)
Policy Drivers
Why do stakeholders care about DE?
Research and Development
Proposed Network Investment(time and place)
(NSPs)
Assumptions &Scenario Analysis
Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations
(NEM)
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
Roadmap Elements
External Data
External Process
Avoidable network costs
Network Capacity Required Sydney by 2012
>15MVA
< -10MVA
Avail. Capacity
Proposed Network Investment Sydney to 2012
Indicative Network Investment Deferral Value ($/MVA/yr) -Sydney to 2012
DE Technology Assessment:
Costs, Scale, Limitations
Institutional Barriers
What obstructs cost-effective DE?Status
(current and progress)
Defining Distributed EnergyEnergy Efficiency, Load Mgt, Distributed Generation
Demand ForecastingEnergy and Peak Load
(NEMMCO)
Policy Instruments
Can institutional barriers be effectively overcome?
Avoidable Network Costs(time and place)
Potential(current and
future)
Policy Drivers
Why do stakeholders care about DE?
Research and Development
Proposed Network Investment(time and place)
(NSPs)
Assumptions &Scenario Analysis
Social Decision Making:Political process;
Policy and Market Design
Optimisation & Outputs: Costs, Prices, Emissions
Recommendations
Centralised Generation Costs, Scale, Limitations
(NEM)
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap
Consumer Acceptance
Will consumers accept DE?
Roadmap Elements
External Data
External Process
Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
Australia’s first PHEV (Plug in Hybrid Electric Vehicle)
1. Plug In
> Bigger Battery > Socket & Charger to charge off
electricity grid > Reduce greenhouse emissions
– (if renewable powered)> Reduces urban pollution> Much lower running costs
– (but high battery costs)
What’s a Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)? > Has both petrol engine and electric motor and battery> Still runs on petrol only, but up to 50% more efficient
– Engine does not idle, recovers braking energy, smaller capacity engine, runs engine at more optimal speed
– Reduces reliance on oil (and imports)
What’s a Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)?
c
More oil use
Pea
k O
il
Global Warming
Conventional vehicle
petrol fuel
~20% efficient
Biofuel vehiclerenewable fuel
Competing land use, biodiversity, food security
Electric vehicle (EV) electric fuel, ~80% efficient
Limited range, Slow recharge
Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV)
~40% efficient Long range, quick refuel
petrol fuel
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEV)Electric & petrol fuel
~60% efficient
Long range, quick refuel
More greenhouse emissions
Why PHEVs?
PHEV Greenhouse Gas EmissionsComparison of PHEV emissions charged from various power stations types
(Year 2010, 19,300 km per year, 30km electric range)
Source: EPRI http://www.epri-reports.org/PHEV-ExecSum-vol1.pdf
Coal fired electricity
Renewable electricity
Conventional car
Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
Conventional(Camry)
Off Peak Standard(Continuous)
Green Power Off PeakGreen Power
$/da
y Electricity
Petrol ($1.40/l)
Petrol ($1.40/l)
Actual one-off battery cost
Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Petrol ($1.40/l)
Estimated battery cost at production line volumes
Fuel Cost Comparison (Conventional petrol car vs PHEV per day for typical 30km commute)
Air Cond.O/Peak Water heating
~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV
Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond.Water heating
~8 kWh per day = >60 km in PHEV
PHEV charge -uncontrolled
Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond.Water heating
~8 kWh per day = ~60 km in PHEV
PHEV charge -controlled
Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
Impact of PHEVs on Average Residential Power Demand
(Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond.
~8 kWh per day of load removed
Average Residential Power Demand (Summer Peak- NSW)
Air Cond.
Vehicle to Grid load management (peak load reduced)
Australia’s first V2G (Vehicle to Grid) electric car
Solar? What does a Solar Feed in tariff look at from
a Intelligent Grid perspective?
1. A Gross Tariff of at least 30cents/kWh fixed for the term of the tariff.
2. The term of the tariff should be at least 10 years from the date of installation.
3. If necessary, the term of the FiT should be reviewed, rather than the rate.
4. Eligibility should be open to all electricity consumers
5. Consumers receiving the FiT should be required to purchase power through a time of use tariff.
6. This time of use tariff should be based on “net metering”
What’s next
Australian Distributed Energy Roadmap Forum 1: Brisbane April 09: Introduction Forum 2: Melbourne 14 July: Costs of Distributed Energy Forum 3: Sydney August 09: Avoidable Network Costs
NSW Case Study Report release soon
Conclusions
• Smart Grids, Electric Cars and Solar PV are strongly complementary
• We are unlikely to be able to afford a much bigger grid and a much smarter grid at the same time
• We need to make investment in distributed energy as easy as investment in networks.
www.igrid.net.au
www.igrid.net.au