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MARKET COMMENTARY
Markets at a Glance HSX HNX
Close 604.01 91.13
1 Day Change (%) (0.04%) +1.41%
Volume (Shares) 126,581,590 80,476,769
Value (VNDbn) 2,054 1,174
HSX/HNX-30 641.89 185.92
Gainers 130 125
Losers 80 76
Unchanged 74 68
Foreign Activity HSX HNX
Foreign Buying (VNDbn) 78.2(3.8%)* 20.5(1.7%)*
Foreign Selling (VNDbn) 97.9(4.8%)* 18.6(1.6%)*
Net Buying/Selling (19.7) 1.9* % Total Value
Table of Contents:
Market Commentary Page 1-2
Technical Analysis Page 3
HSX Indices Page 4
Economic News Page 5
Recommendation Page 6
Major Market Movers Page 7
HSX Sector Performance Page 8
Top 5 (By Market Cap) For Each Sector Page 9
ETF Trading Page 10
International Markets Page 11
Neighboring Markets Page 12
Contact Information Page 13
Disclaimer Page 14
The VN-Index edged down while the HNX-Index
surpassed 91
The VN-Index and HNX-Index, after ticking up earl
today, continued to move sideways around 605 and 9respectively thanks to stable supply and deman
forces. On the HSX, certain tickers, such as ASM, BS
DIG, DLG, ITA, KBC, PPI, SRC, VHG, VNE, attracted
strong cash inflow and gained sharply. However, a
blue-chips turned red, including FPT, GAS, GMD, KDC
MSN, the VN-Index closed with a 0.04% decline t
604.01. Meanwhile, on the HNX, alongside heav
demand for securities and petrol tickers, includin
BVS, KLS, VND, PGS, PVC, PVS, and PVX; KL
continued to hit its ceiling price. ACB also rose when
news concerning its additional purchase of 17.4 millioshares as treasury shares was released. Take
together, they boosted the HNX-Index by 1.41% t
reach 91.13. Trading volume on both exchanges
though falling marginally from yesterday, still stood a
a relatively high level.
Foreign investors today net sold VND19.7 billio
(USD934,000) on the HSX with EIB, GAS, PVD. On th
HNX, they net bought mainly AAA, BVS, PLC, SHS
VND, worth VND1.9 billion (USD90,000).
The VN-Index, with todays minor decrease, trade
sideways above the MA100 and below the MA50
Meanwhile the HNX-Indexs breakthrough 90-9
further confirms the possibility of an uptrend. Th
market movements today demonstrate that th
demand forces have restored confidence at hig
prices, which acts as a positive signal. Therefore, w
believe that investors could increase their weight o
stocks when the market maintains its positive signal
over the next several sessions.
DAILY MARKET REVIEWNovember 12, 2014
Please read the disclaimer at the end of this report
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SBV issues new Circular to tighten bank operation and deal with
cross-ownership in the banking system.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently issued the Circular 30/2014/TT-NHNN
(Circular 30) which comes into effect on J anuary 1, 2015. The circula
stipulates rules on trustee companies and entrustment receiving profession o
the foreign credit institutions and bank branches.
This Circular replaces Circular 04/2012/TT-NHNN. It overcomes the limitation oCircular 04 and simultaneously prevents cross-ownership in banking systems
The new circular introduces the concept of entrustment profession an
entrustment receiving profession of foreign credit institutions and ban
branches. Particularly, credit institutions and bank branches are granted th
right to entrust and receive entrustment on the following activities: lending
financial leasing, capital contribution, purchasing shares, investment i
production or business projects, purchasing corporate bonds. Additionally, thi
circular also provides guided some specific cases when foreign cred
institutions, bank branches and financial leasing companies could entrust an
receive entrustment legally.
Furthermore, Circular 30 also stipulates the strict regulation in granting cred
when the credit institutions aim to process entrustment and receive
entrustment. An expert in banking systems commented that some bank
avoided the prevailing regulation to carry out the activities of entrustment an
receiving entrustment with the aim of controlling the financial market. Hence
Circular 30 is a step in the restructuring of the banking industry that shoul
improve Vietnams transparency in the eyes of foreign investors.
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HSX Daily Chart (3 Month) VN-Index
Closed above the MA100:The VN-Index move
sideways in a narrow band today before closing nea
the lower band. The technical chart showed a sma
black cande with high volume, reflecting th
accumulation in volume of HSXs stocks. The inde
was still held below the resistance level of 608 - 610
formed by the MA50 but in a positive sign, it close
today above the MA100, which was at 603.
Outlook: The VN-Index is likely to rise tomorrow in a
attempt to break through the threshold of 608 - 610.
HNX-Index
Broke through the Bollinger Bands: The HNX
Index rose sharply today, approaching its previou
peak at 91.9. The technical chart showed a long whit
candle with high volume, which broke through th
upper band of the Bollinger Bands. It was a positiv
signal, which may initiate a new uptrend for the HNX
Index.
Outlook: The HNX-Index is likely to double check th
upper Bollinger band at 90.8 91.0 before closing wit
a gain.
VN30 - Index
Accumulated below the MA100: The VN3
dropped slightly today and formed a small spinnin
top on its technical chart. The index was supported b
the MA5 at 640 - 641 but still held below the resistanc
level of the MA100, which was at 644. This was th
third consecutive session that the VN30 accumulate
in volume below this threshold and we believe that
will generate a break-out signal soon.
Outlook: The VN30 could rise tomorrow in a
attempt to break through the MA100.
HNX Daily Chart (3 Month)
Vn30 Daily Chart (3 Month)
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
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Source: HS
VNSmall 732.5 1.40% VNMidcap 668.92 0.40%
VN100 584.92 0.05% VNAllshare 593.62 0.15%
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
740
760
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14500
520
540
560
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
490
510
530
550
570
590
610
630
650
670
690
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
490
510
530
550
570
590
610
630
650
670
690
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
HSX INDICES
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DOMESTIC NEWS ECONOMIC NEWSVietnams consumer
co nfidence rebounds
Vietnamese banks assets are
on the rise
INTERNATIONAL NEWSNew bank rules proposed to
end to o big to fail
Brent crude prices hit a four-
yea r low on ove rsupp ly
concerns
According to the most recent data on consumer confidence released b
Nielsen, a global information and measurement company, Vietnam
consumer confidence index in the third quarter of 2014 makes a quantum lea
of four points from a quarter earlier and three points from last year. Althoug
savings still top the list of popularity, the number of respondents who prefe
savings diminishes for the first time in several years. The propensity tconsume is now shifting towards holidays, new clothing, latest technologica
products, household appliances replacement, and outdoor activities. Despit
increasing expenditures, 77% of Vietnamese consumers, after covering livin
expenses, still put their idle money in savings account.
The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) recently posted the healthiest trend i
operation of credit institutions over the past few months with remarkabl
improvements in key indicators. In particular, as of September 30, total asset
of the whole system peaked at VND6,160 trillion (USD292 billion), up 6.12%
and up VND95,464 billion (USD4.5 billion) from August. Total assets acquire
by state-owned commercial banks and joint stock commercial banks swelle
by 8.53% and 5.66%, respectively, as compared to 2013. Meanwhile, the sam
figures for joint venture and foreign banks, and financial leasing companie
fell by 1% and 3.7%, respectively. The amount of banks contributed capita
totaled VND496.3 trillion (USD23.5 billion) in the first nine months, up 3.4%
Further, the capital adequacy ratio of credit institutions far exceeded SBV
requirements, standing at 13.43% as of September.
After the financial crisis in 2007 - 2009, governments had to spend billions o
dollars of taxpayer money to rescue banks that ran into trouble and coul
have threatened the global financial system if allowed to go under. Since then
regulators from the Group of 20 economies have been trying to find ways t
prevent this from happening again. The plans proposed by the Financia
Stability Board envisage that global banks, such as Goldman Sachs (GS.N
and HSBC (HSBA.L), should have a buffer of bonds or equity equivalent to a
least 16% to 20% of their risk-weighted assets, such as loans, from J anuar
2019. The new rule will apply to 30 banks deemed to be globally "systemically
important", though initially three from China on that list of 30 would be
exempt.
Brent crude prices slid to another four-year low on expectations that th
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) would defer actio
to rein in ample global oil supplies. Oil prices have tumbled for months, a
moderate demand growth appeared insufficient to absorb growing crudsupplies. Many market watchers expect that OPEC, which controls more tha
one-third of global oil production, to maintain its collective output target at it
coming meeting on November 27. Brent, the global benchmark, fell 67 cents
or 0.8%, to USD81.67 per barrel on the ICE Futures Europe, the lowes
settlement price since October 19, 2010. Brent prices are down 29% from mid
J une highs. The U.S. Energy Information Administration, the Internationa
Energy Agency and OPEC all cut their forecasts for global oil demand growt
in recent months.
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RECOMMENDATION
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Top 5 Gainers on HSX (*) Top 5 Gainers on HNX (*)
Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume
SRC 38,500 2,500 6.9% 4.1% 409,530 ITQ 14,300 1,300 10.0% 23.3% 422,153
BSI 10,800 700 6.9% 6.9% 684,310 KLF 14,300 1,300 10.0% - 20,442,392
PPI 14,300 900 6.7% 3.6% 1,843,890 VIX 62,400 5,600 9.9% 26.8% 739,120
CMG 10,300 500 5.1% 6.2% 204,930 S99 12,600 1,100 9.6% 8.6% 1,215,077
VHG 16,600 800 5.1% 3.1% 5,429,610 PCT 7,100 600 9.2% 12.7% 1,368,264
Top 5 Losers on HSX (*) Top 5 Losers on HNX (*)
Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume
PXL 4,300 (100) -0.2% - 288,900 VCS 27,900 (200) -0.7% -1.8% 121,400
HSG 50,500 (1,000) -0.2% -1.0% 133,520 SD6 15,800 (100) -0.6% 0.6% 228,870
VHC 57,000 (1,000) -0.2% 2.7% 920,420 API 14,900 - - -1.3% 390,900
SBA 11,700 (200) -0.2% -4.1% 183,890 PVG 12,000 - - -0.8% 121,300
KDC 61,500 (1,000) -0.2% -0.8% 473,810 CEO 17,000 - - 1.8% 1,040,350
(*) (Market cap. >150 VNDbn, Volume >100,000
Top 5 Volume on HSX Top 5 Volume on HNX (*)
Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume Code Price Net Chg %+/- T %+/-T+3 Volume
FLC 12,400 200 1.6% 6.0% 17,430,220 KLF 14,300 1,300 10.0% 23.3% 20,442,392
ITA 9,200 400 4.5% 5.7% 11,077,390 SCR 10,600 400 3.9% 3.9% 8,313,558
VHG 16,600 800 5.1% 3.1% 5,429,610 PVC 36,000 2,300 6.8% 7.1% 4,002,041
OGC 9,000 - - -2.2% 5,014,620 PVX 6,500 200 3.2% 1.6% 3,878,603
KBC 18,000 300 1.7% 1.1% 4,543,300 SHS 12,500 300 2.5% 5.9% 3,583,214
Top 5 Net Buying on HSX by Foreign Investors Top 5 Net Buying on HNX by Foreign Investors
Code Price Buy Vol. Sell Vol. Net Vol. Net Value Code Price Buy Vol. Sell Vol. Net Vol. Net Value
KBC 18,000 631,550 52,000 579,550 10,337 SHS 12,500 620,600 - 620,600 7,701
DIG 15,000 442,240 - 442,240 6,532 VND 14,100 378,000 20,000 358,000 5,036
MWG 101,000 62,060 670 61,390 6,200 BVS 15,300 158,300 10,000 148,300 2,266
FLC 12,400 500,000 10 499,990 6,070 PLC 33,500 56,000 - 56,000 1,849
VIC 48,800 113,810 17,630 96,180 4,696 SD9 15,300 36,900 - 36,900 560
Top 5 Net Selling on HSX by Foreign Investors Top 5 Net Selling on HNX by Foreign Investors
Code Price Buy Vol. Sell Vol. Net Vol. Net Value Code Price Buy Vol. Sell Vol. Net Vol. Net Value
GAS 106,000 2,100 218,830 (216,730) (22,974) PVS 41,400 - 330,000 (330,000) (13,519
PVD 92,000 13,450 226,240 (212,790) (19,521) PVC 36,000 500 61,000 (60,500) (2,090
VHC 57,000 - 99,390 (99,390) (5,638) PVE 15,700 - 48,000 (48,000) (749
NBB 20,900 - 131,990 (131,990) (2,741) NBC 12,000 - 34,500 (34,500) (414
BVH 38,800 3,060 72,370 (69,310) (2,679) HMH 26,900 900 10,000 (9,100) (241
Value: in VNDmn and Volume: in shares Source: HSX, HNX, Bloomberg
MAJ OR MARKET MOVERS
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Outperforming
Underperforming
Note: We have chosen to present the sector index graphs on an equal weighting basis, whereas the 1-day and 30-day changes in the table
below are on a market-cap weighted basis. We have done this because a few large-cap companies can often dominate the performance
of a sector when measured on a market cap weighted basis, but this does not give investors an accurate picture of the investment
opportunities available there.
GICS SECTORS Market Cap Weighted Change 1D (%) Change 30D (%) P/E P/
Consumer Staples 23.8% -0.28% -1.81% 20.9 1
Energy 3.5% 0.35% -2.94% 16.4 2
Financials 34.2% 0.44% 0.92% 13.8 1
Health Care 1.5% 0.02% 4.52% 14.8 1
Industrials 7.3% 0.84% 1.69% 14.8 2
Information Technology 1.8% -0.54% -2.15% 16.5 2
Materials 6.5% -0.04% 1.40% 12.0 1
Utilities 21.3% -0.80% -1.86% 10.3 1
Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collecte
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
11/13 12/13 01/14 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
HSX (Equal Weighted) Energy Technology
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
11/13 12/13 01/14 02/14 03/14 04/14 05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
HSX (Equal Weighted) Consumer Financials
Health Care Industrials Materials
Utilities
HSX SECTOR PERFORMANCE
i/
(L
s
ain/(Lo
s
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Outperforming Sectors on HSX
Technology Energy
Code P/E P/B ROEMarket Cap.
(VNDbn)Change 30D Code P/E P/B ROE
Market Cap.(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Average 16.5 2.1 16.5% -2.2% Average 16.4 2.1 29.5% -2.9%
FPT 10.5 2.3 23% 17,367 -2.9% GAS 18.0 5.7 0.3 200,870 -6.2%
ELC 14.3 0.9 6% 539 -0.7% PVD 10.9 2.5 25% 27,879 -8.9%
CMG 16.9 1.1 7% 682 6.2% PGD 12.3 1.7 14% 2,064 -4.2%
SGT 17.2 0.9 5% 355 9.1% CNG 8.7 2.5 29% 1,023 -1.8%
TIE 3.1 0.6 19% 152 -6.5% PGC 9.8 1.2 12% 754 -0.7%
Underperforming Sectors on HSX
Health Care Financials
Code P/E P/B ROEMarket Cap.
(VNDbn)Change 30D Code P/E P/B ROE
Market Cap.(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Average 14.8 1.7 16.0% 4.5% Average 13.8 1.1 10.6% 0.9%DHG 15.4 3.9 28% 8,498 3.7% VCB 15.3 1.4 11% 72,755 1.1%
TRA 14.1 2.7 22% 1,875 0.0% CTG 9.2 1.0 11% 53,617 -1.4%
J VC 19.0 1.2 7% 2,025 4.3% VIC 13.4 3.8 29% 70,982 0.4%
OPC 14.3 2.0 15% 791 1.7% BVH 21.8 2.3 10% 26,402 -4.0%
DMC 9.1 1.7 19% 1,149 1.2% STB 8.9 1.3 14% 21,822 1.6%
Industrials Consumers
Code P/E P/B ROEMarket Cap.
(VNDbn)Change 30D Code P/E P/B ROE
Market Cap.(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Average 14.8 1.1 8.1% 1.7% Average 20.9 1.5 15.2% -1.8%
REE 9.2 1.4 0.2 7,624 -4.0% VNM 18.3 5.7 33% 104,012 -5.5%ITA 67.9 0.8 1% 6,614 3.4% MSN - 4.3 - 61,072 1.8%
GMD 6.8 0.8 13% 3,995 -3.6% KDC 26.4 2.3 9% 15,692 5.1%
BMP 8.2 1.9 25% 3,024 -3.6% VCF 14.3 4.3 34% 5,316 3.1%
PVT 15.9 1.4 8% 4,580 -0.6% DRC 14.8 3.5 25% 4,943 -3.3%
Utilities Materials
Code P/E P/B ROEMarket Cap.
(VNDbn)Change 30D Code P/E P/B ROE
Market Cap.(VNDbn)
Change 30D
Average 10.3 1.4 13.3% -1.9% Average 12.0 1.0 11.9% 1.4%
PPC 10.9 1.5 14% 8,081 2.8% HPG 8.8 2.4 31% 27,710 -1.7%
VSH 12.2 1.1 8% 3,011 0.7% DPM 9.5 1.2 12% 11,398 -2.6%
TMP 9.2 2.0 23% 1,785 7.1% HSG 15.1 2.1 14% 4,864 5.0%
TBC 12.0 1.7 15% 1,600 6.3% POM - 0.7 -2% 1,733 -3.1%
BTP 10.0 0.9 9% 895 3.5% DPR 5.9 0.8 13% 1,605 -8.3%
Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected
TOP 5 (BY MARKET CAP) FOR EACH SECTOR
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ETF TRADING
Ticker NAVDaily
changeNAV
SharesOutstanding
DailyChange in
ShareOutstanding
Lastprice
DailyChange
price
Premium/Discount
Date ofannouncements
VNM $ 21.20 -0.24% 25,850,000 0 $ 21.07 -0.14% -0.62% Price at 11/11/2014NAV at 11/11/2014
FTSE Vietnam $29.54 -0.22% 14,566,400 0 $ 29.53 0.00% -0.03%Price at 11/11/2014NAV at 11/11/2014
Market Vec tor Vietnam ETF FTSE Vietnam ETF
Total Share Outstanding
Difference between Price and NAV (%) Difference between Price and NAV (%)
Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collected
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
2627
28
29
05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
11
12
13
14
15
05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
-3%
-3%
-2%
-2%
-1%
-1%
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
05/14 06/14 07/14 08/14 09/14 10/14
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Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collecte
Dow Jones 17,614.90 0.01% Nasdaq 4,660.56 0.19%
FTSE 6,598.94 -0.43% DAX 9,271.99 -1.04%
NIKKEI 225 17,197.05 0.43% SHANGHAI 2,494.48 1.00%
7,500
8,000
8,500
9,000
9,500
10,000
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
2,000
2,100
2,200
2,300
2,400
2,500
2,600
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
12,800
13,600
14,400
15,200
16,000
16,800
17,600
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
3,910
4,080
4,250
4,420
4,590
4,760
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
5,800
6,000
6,200
6,400
6,600
6,800
7,000
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
15,000
15,500
16,000
16,500
17,000
17,500
18,000
08/14 09/14 10/14 11/14
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
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78
88
98
108
118
128
138
148
11/13 01/14 03/14 05/14 07/14 09/14 11/1
Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange MSCI EFM ASIA Index Bangkok Stock Exchange
Jakarta Stock Exchange Philippines Stock Exchange
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
P/E P/B ROE ROA
Bangkok Stock Exchange Jakarta Stock Exchange
Philippines Stock Exchange Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange
MarketBangkok
StockExchange
J akartaStock
Exchange
PhilippinesStock
Exchange
Ho ChiMinh StocExchang
P/E 18.5 19.5 20.9 14
P/B 2.2 2.5 2.9 2
ROE 12.7 12.7 14.5 13
ROA 3.0 3.1 3.3 2
Market Cap.(USDbn)
436.4 386.8 182.0 51
Foreign Net Inflow- YTD (USDmn)
(446.2) 4,042.6 786.4 178
Foreign Net Inflow- 5D (USDmn)
133.9 74.0 14.3 2
GDP Growth(%yoy)
2.9 5.8 7.2 5
Source: Bloomberg, VPBS collecte
NEIGHBORING MARKETS
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C ONTAC T INFORMA TION
For further information regarding this report, please contact the f ollow ing mem bers of the VPBSresearch department:
Barry David WeisblattHead of [email protected]
Nguyen Thi Thuy LinhDirector M acro & [email protected]
Vu Minh Duc Director - Technical [email protected]
Nguyen Ba HoanSenior [email protected]
C ao Tien CuongJ unior [email protected]
Hoang Thuy LuongResearch [email protected]
For any questions regarding your account, please contact the following:
Marc Djandji, C FAHead of Institutional Sales & Brokerage& Foreign [email protected]+848 3823 8608 Ext: 158
Ly Dac DungDirector of Retail Sales & [email protected]+ 844 3974 3655 Ext: 335
Vo Van PhuongVice President of Retail Sales &[email protected]+848 6296 4210 Ext: 130
DomaluxVice President of Retail Sales &[email protected]+848 6296 4210 Ext: 128
Tran Duc VinhVice President of Retail Sales &[email protected]+848 3835 6688 Ext: 369
Nguyen Danh V inhAssociate Vice President of RetailSales & [email protected]+848 3823 8608 Ext: 146
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