2006 Elections, Recent Public Opinion Findings
By Dan Nataf, Ph.D.Director, Center for the Study of Local Issues
Anne Arundel Community Collegewww2.aacc.edu/csli
Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s 2002 victory – the ascendance of ‘red’ Maryland over ‘blue’
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
Contrast past with present: Ehrlich’s vote in 2006
Composite Picture – 2006
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
Party Registration in Maryland, 2000-06
57.00% 56.40% 56.00% 55.80% 55.30% 55.00%
29.60% 29.90% 30.00% 30.00% 29.30% 29.30%
13.20% 13.10% 13.00% 13.20% 13.90% 14.00%
Dem, 55.10%
Rep, 28.90%
Unaffil, 13.90%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Dem
Rep
Unaffil
Trends in Party Registration - Statewide
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages?
Democratic defectors hold the key to Ehrlich success in 2002:
All Rep and unaffiliated voters = 731128
Ehrlich ’02 vote = 879592
Democratic defections (and other party registrants):
2002 -148464
2006 - 11927
979740
1095069
561884614704
169244198833
731128
813537
879592825464
148464
11927
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
Dem Voters Rep Voters UnaffiliatedVoters
TotalRep+Unaffil.
Ehrlich Vote Dem Defectors -Min
Statewide Party Registration and Ehrlich Vote '02, '06
2002
2006
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
Anne Arundel Only ResultsExit Poll
66972
-2254
-28743
-20788
-53215
-27581
-60000
-40000
-20000
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006
Govr's Races: Dem-Rep Votes
Schaeffer vs. Mooney83%, 17%
Schaeffer vs. Shepard, 49%, 51%
Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 40%, 60%
Glendening vs. Sauerbrey, 43%, 57%
Townsend vs Ehrlich, 35%, 65%
O'Malley vs. Ehrlich, 42%, 57%
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
Anne Arundel Consistently supports Rep. Gubernatorial Candidates
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
134500
118200
54300
7801074466
24435
78428
106145
82159
100403
9008487978
9022690129
89180
9301894392
83217
90368
8311978440
91399
59905
106970
66463
90967
66807
84603
67422
8148079060
91619 89095
87688
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
130000
140000
Anne Arundel County Only - Major Races by Party
Dem
Rep
Unaffiliated
Anne Arundel
How do Republican Candidates Win without Party Registration Advantages – Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll
Democratic defectors more numerous (17%) than Republican defectors (10%)
Unaffiliated voted disproportionately for Ehrlich (54%)
Party Registration
Ehrlich O’Malley Others Didn’t vote
Cases
Democrats 17 79 3 6 180
Republicans 89 10 0 1 167
Unaffiliated 54 40 6 0 50
Other 83 8 0 8 12
2006 Elections: Party Defections – Govr’s Race Anne Arundel County Results
How informed? Govr
Cty Exec.
Very 56 34
Somewhat 37 45
Not very 7 21
Total 100 100
Informed about Governor/County Executives Candidates’ Stands on Issues?
Anne Arundel Only Results
Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll
42% Overall
40% 51-60
61% African-Americans
45% 31-40
37% 41-50
47% 18-30+
37% Whites36% Men
49% Women
32% $75-110k
50% Postgrad50% 61-70
56% 70+
38% >$110k+
49% <$50k47% $50-75k
50% Some Coll.
38% Bachelor’s
36% HS or less
Anne Arundel County Only Results
Demographics of O’Malley Vote – Exit Poll
42% Overall
65% Jewish
93% Strong Dem78% Weak Dem
38% Independent
5% Weak Rep
60% “Other”
48% Protestant
46% “Non-practicing”
36% Catholic
27% Evangelical
2% Strong Rep
What issues were salient in Governor’s Race in 2006? Data from Anne Arundel County Exit Poll
Depends how you ask the question!
Closed-ended:
Economy -21%
Education – 18%
Taxes – 16%
Crime - 13
Open-ended:
Education – 18%
Taxes – 8%
Economy – 5%
Crime -4%
Issue Type of Poll -% Mentioning
Closed-ended results by candidate
Issue Closed Open Ehrlich O’Malley
Economy 21 5 53 44
Education 18 18 43 57
Taxes 16 8 69 31
Crime 13 4 55 40
Growth 8 3 62 39
Cost of living 6 3 50 50
Slots 6 3 80 20
Healthcare 5 0 13 88
Environment 3 3 40 60
Work with legislature
3 0 25 75
College tuition 3 2 60 40
Nothing cited 0 51
Total 100 100
2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Issues in AA County
Type of Survey - % citing
Closed-ended by candidate
Traits Open Closed Ehrlich O’Malley
Honesty, trustworthy 33 10 44 56All others 21 0 -- --Party 7 0 -- --Leadership, competence, has a plan 7 22 55 45Clear, straightforward, forthright 6 0 -- --Generally likeable character 6 0 -- --Persistent, consistent 5 0 -- --Right experience 4 25 69 31Past record 3 0 -- --Integrity/right moral outlook 3 21 73 22Overall beliefs 3 0 -- --Family man 2 6 10 90Understand the needs of others 0 12 20 75Works well with others 0 4 14 86Total 100 100
Traits Motivating Vote for Governor – Exit Poll
2006 Elections: Govr’s Race – Candidate Traits Motivating Voters in A A County
10556
8842
1103275
16518
5036
681
20014
5188
13593
9303
826
8975
24044
1229
16325
11636
1335
9500
15350
1302
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
COUNTYCOUNCIL 1
COUNTYCOUNCIL 2
COUNTYCOUNCIL 3
COUNTYCOUNCIL 4
COUNTYCOUNCIL 5
COUNTYCOUNCIL 6
COUNTYCOUNCIL 7
Dem, Rep and Blank Votes by Council District '06
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Council District
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Only
8178782155
43400
128890
38399
71937
80754
15639
83017
73570
11674
71807
94053
642
8273179364
5933
8245677644
8188
75047
89009
12780
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
Dem, Rep and Blank Votes - Countywide Offices 2006
Dem
Rep
Blank
Anne Arundel County Voting Quirks – Blank Votes by Countywide Races
65.1%62.1%
58.1%59.5%60.0%
55.1%57.2%
62.8%
68.8%66.2%64.8%64.2%
61.9%
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
2006 Elections: Maryland and Anne Arundel County
More Voting Quirks: Republican % of Absentee/Provisional Ballots
54899
57615
87676
63879
89456
83305
89613
93533
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
1994 1998 2002 2006
AA County Executive Races 1994-2006
Dem
Rep
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
County Executive Results
Vote for County Executive/County Executive by Party
Republicans Democrats Didn’t Vote
Ehrlich Leopold O’Malley Johnson Govr. County Exec.
Cases
Democrats 17 22 79 74 6 4 180
Republicans 89 80 10 14 1 5 167
Unaffiliated 54 39 40 55 0 6 50
Other 83 42 8 42 8 17 12
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
More defections in County Executive race; unaffiliated voters move from Republican to Democratic support
Anne Arundel County Results
Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll
49% Overall
41% 51-60
61% African-Americans
55% 31-40
45% 41-50
52% 18-30+
37% Whites
50% Women/Men
39% $75-110k
54% Postgrad
50% 61-70
53% 70+
51% >$110k+52% <$50k
60% $50-75k
55% Some Coll.
43% Bachelor’s44% HS or less
Anne Arundel County Results
Demographics of Johnson Vote – Exit Poll
49% Overall
60% Jewish
89% Strong Dem79% Weak Dem
53% Independent
15% Weak Rep
56% “Other”
52% Protestant
66% “Non-practicing”
46% Catholic
28% Evangelical
12% Strong Rep
County Executive Candidates: Issues
48
66
20
36
49 49
81
40
4951
35
80
65
43
52
19
60
52
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Johnson
Leopold
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
County Executive Candidates: Candidate Traits
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
43
5047
63
29
57
5053
30
71
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Honesty Strong leader Experience Understandsneeds of people
like me
Intelligence
Johnson
Leopold
Factors Influencing the Vote for County Executive by Candidate
Influence Overall Leopold Johnson Cases
The candidate or a representative came to my door to introduce him/herself
13 80 20 20
Information from the Internet 13 65 30 20
Literature received in the mail 15 63 33 24
Endorsed by a newspaper like the Capital, Washington Post or the Sun
14 57 44 23
Newspaper stories about candidate 20 47 50 32
Conversations with friends or family 22 41 51 37
I saw the candidate speak at a public forum 11 41 53 17
Endorsed by some person or group I respect 33 39 59 54
Paid ads in the newspapers 5 38 63 8
Candidate’s name from signs along major roads 5 38 50 8
Paid ads on TV 15 29 67 24
I personally knew the candidate from church, civic/sports association, etc.
8 27 73 11
2006 Elections: Anne Arundel County Results
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007
Since the Elections: Schools and Taxes
Visions for Anne Arundel County Public Schools %
I favor a school system which is absolutely top quality regardless of the cost.
50
I favor a school system which is of good quality but doesn’t increase my taxes.
36
Other volunteered answer 7
No answer 7
Total 100
Support for Superintendent’s Request for a 17% School Budget Increase?
Position %
Fully fund this proposal by raising some County taxes. 25
Fully fund this proposal by reducing other County services 20
Partially fund this proposal to the extent possible without increasing taxes or reducing other County services.
43
Other volunteered answer 6
No answer 7
Total 100
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007
Since the Elections: How to Pay for Looming County Expenses?
Response Percent
The county should pay for these expenses without raising any taxes or fees, even if it has to cut back on other public services
31
The county should pay for these expenses by a combination of cost reductions and tax increases
55
Some other volunteered answer 8
No answer 7
Total 101
The County will be facing several budget challenges over the next few years including funding public schools, roads, changes in accounting rules, and increasing salaries to help recruit qualified government employees. Which of the following best reflects your views about how the County should deal with these challenges:
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007
Since the Elections: Taxes and Spending Balance
Generally, do you trust the County to find the right balance between paying for these expenses and keeping taxes as low as possible?
No, 52
No answer, 6
Yes, 42
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007Heard about BRAC? Positive or Negative Impact?
Since the Elections: BRAC
69
25
52
55
23
10 8
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Yes/Positive No/Negative Unsure No answer
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007How to deal with influx of new workers and the demand for housing?
Since the Elections: BRAC
Response Agree Disagree No Answer
Make it possible to build new housing more quickly by reducing the time it takes to get building permits.
45 48 7
Increase the maximum number of units that can be built on land – for example allowing condominiums to be built instead of single family houses.
37 57 7
Focus on providing more resources to the redevelopment of older northern and western areas of the County.
75 14 12
Spend more on increasing public transportation to the area rather than improving the roads.
46 46 7
Increase impact fees so that new housing construction will help pay for new roads, schools and other services.
69 26 5
“Many of these new workers may seek to find housing in Anne Arundel County. Do you agree or disagree with the following proposals meant to accommodate such new workers?”
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007
Since the Elections: Various State and Local Legislative Proposals
Proposal Agree Disagree No answer
Banning all roadside solicitation on County roads 76 21 3
Increasing the cigarette tax by one dollar to help pay for increasing health insurance coverage to the uninsured.
72 27 1
Banning smoking in all restaurants and bars 68 29 3
Forcing all new cars sold in Maryland to comply with California pollution standards
51 40 9
Repealing the death penalty in Maryland 33 58 9
CSLI Semi-annual Poll – March 5-8, 2007
Since the Elections: President Bush’s Job Approval
4145
54 5558
78
7 7
3537
36
3437 39
48
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Fall '05 Sp '06 Fall '06 Sp '07
Gallup Approve
Approve
Disapprove
No answer
DEM Presidential Primaries: National Trends
Rasmussen Dem Candidates Jan-July 2007
22%
31%
33%34%
28%28%
37%
34%
38%
35%
37%
33%34%
32%32%
30%
34%35%35%35%
34%
37%38%
37%
39%38%38%
21%
24%
19%18%
23%24%
26%26%26%
30%
25%26%
29%30%
32%32%
26%
33%
25%26%26%
25%
27%
25%26% 26%
25%
15%
12%
10%10%
13%
11%
13%
15%15%
11%
17%17%
15%16%
17%17%16%
14%
18%
14%15%
11%
16%
13%13% 13%13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1/17
/200
7
1/24
/200
7
1/31
/200
7
2/7/
2007
2/14
/200
7
2/21
/200
7
2/28
/200
7
3/7/
2007
3/14
/200
7
3/21
/200
7
3/28
/200
7
4/4/
2007
4/11
/200
7
4/18
/200
7
4/25
/200
7
5/2/
2007
5/9/
2007
5/16
/200
7
5/23
/200
7
5/30
/200
7
6/6/
2007
6/13
/200
7
6/20
/200
7
6/27
/200
7
7/4/
2007
7/11
/200
7
Clinton
Obama
Edwards
Dem Primary States (American Research Group - 6-30-07)
3234
37
40
3638
42
13
25
21
16
19
25 26
29
11
22
16
20
13
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Ra
smu
sse
n7
/16
/20
07
Ga
llup
7-8
-0
7
Iowa NewHampsh.
S. Carol. Nevada 4 StatesAv.
National Ave.
ClintonObamaEdwards
DEM Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
REP Presidential Primaries: National Trends
Rasmussen: Republican Presidential Primary 2007
0%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
14% 14%13%
12%
14%
16%15%
14%
12%
17%
24%
28%27% 27%
25%24%
28%
30%29%
27%
32%33% 33%
34%
37%
33%
35%
26%27%
33%
28%
30%
25% 25%26%
25%
23%24%
27%
23%24% 24%
23%
8%
10%
8%9%
8% 8%
10%9%
10% 10%
8% 8%
12% 12%
10%11%
12% 12%
15%16%
15%
11%10%
12%13%
12%12%
20%
22%
19% 19%18%
19%
17%
19%
16%15% 15%
16% 16%
19%
15%14%
17%18% 18%
15%14%
11%10%
11%12% 12%12%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
1/18
/200
7
1/25
/200
7
2/1/
2007
2/8/
2007
2/15
/200
7
2/22
/200
7
3/1/
2007
3/8/
2007
3/15
/200
7
3/22
/200
7
3/29
/200
7
4/5/
2007
4/12
/200
7
4/19
/200
7
4/26
/200
7
5/3/
2007
5/10
/200
7
5/17
/200
7
5/24
/200
7
5/31
/200
7
6/7/
2007
6/14
/200
7
6/21
/200
7
6/28
/200
7
7/5/
2007
7/12
/200
7
Thom.
Giul.
Romn.
McCain
REP Presidential Primaries: Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada
1819
2221
20
23
25
13
21
23
16
18
1213
25
27
8
23
21
12
10
14
10
19
16
15
24
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Rasmussen7/16/2007
RCP 7-15
Iowa NewHampsh.
S. Carol. Nevada 4 States Av. National Ave.
Guiliani
McCain
Romney
Thompson
Presidential Primaries: Head to Head Match-ups
Based on Zogby 7-18-07
5
4
3
2
3
0
6
8
6
10
14
9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Guiliani McCain Thompson Romney
Dem Advantage over Rep
ClintonObamaEdwards