1ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Estimates of Windstorm induced Loss in Europe
RT6, WP 6.2 Meeting
ENSEMBLES GA 2007 – 12 Nov - 16 Nov 2006, Prague
Markus DonatGregor LeckebuschUwe Ulbrich
2ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
FUBs objective:• Estimation of loss potential due to extreme wind storms in the
ENSEMBLES climate model simulations (GCMs and RCMs)• Main topic: estimation of robustness of the scenario changes
considering the different ensemble members
Task 6.2.3: Design of sensitivity analyses based on existing climate projections and some initial performance tests
Task 6.2.5: Development of models for understanding and evaluating the impacts of extremes. These models will operate within a probabilistic framework, incorporating where possible effects of adaptation and acclimatisation to climate change.
Task 6.2.10: Preliminary evaluation of the impacts of extreme events using selected impact models for crops, human health, forest fire, forest damage, intense precipitation, drought, wind and temperature extremes from available climate projections
3ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Data
GCMs in ENSEMBLES:
Model Resolution 20C SRES A1B # runs
MPI-ECHAM5 T63 (ca. 1,9°) 1961-2000 2071-2100 3
DMI-ECHAM5 T63 (ca. 1,9°) 1961-2000 2071-2100 1
IPSL-CM4 2,5x3,75° 1961-2000 2071-2100 1
FUB-EGMAM T30 (ca. 4°) 1961-2000 2081-2100 1 (3)
CNRM-CM3 T42 (ca. 2,2°) 1981-2000 2081-2100 1
BCCR-BCM2 T42 (ca. 2,2°) 1960-1999 2080-2099 1
HadGEM1 1,25x1,875° 1960-1999 2070-2099 1
4ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Large-scale atmospheric circulation
Mean MSLP-Fields (winter ONDJFM)
MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs
5ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Large-scale atmospheric circulation
Jones et al. (1993), Jenkinson and Collison(1977)
Classification of daily (geostrophic) circulation at 50N, 10E
Calculation of
Directional Flow (F)
and Shear Vorticity (Z)
based on MSLP data
on 2.5°x2.5° grid
[unit=hPa per 10°]
Classification into Circulation Weather Types (CWTs)
Types: directional, (anti-) cyclonal, hybrid types, undefined
Additionally: „Gale Days“ (if G=sqrt(F²+(0.5Z)²) > 30)
6ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
CWTs A1B-20C Winter (ONDJFM), signifikant 95%
-9
-6
-3
0
3
6
9
12
C AC NE E SE S SW W NW N undef . gale
Dif
fere
nce
A1B
-20C
[%
]
MPI-ECHAM5_1 MPI-ECHAM5_2 MPI-ECHAM5_3 IPSL-CM4 FUB-EGMAM DMI-ECHAM5 CNRM-CM3 BCCR-BCM2 HadGEM
CWTs 20C and ERA40 (ONDJFM)
0
10
20
30
40
50
C AC NE E SE S SW W NW N undef . gale
freq
uen
cy [
%]
MP I-ECHAM5_1 M P I-ECHAM5_2 M P I-ECHAM5_3 IP SL-CM 4 FUB-EGMAM DM I-ECHAM5 CNRM -CM3 BCCR-BCM2 HadGEM ERA40
Large-scale atmospheric circulation
Daily Circulation Weather Types (CWTs) 20C, winter ONDJFM
Changes in CWT frequencies A1B-20C, 95% significant
7ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Gale days
CWTs on gale days in winter (ONDJFM) ERA40 and 20C
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
25,00
C AC NE E SE S SW W NW N undef .
day
s p
er w
inte
r
MP I-ECHAM5_1 M P I-ECHAM5_2 M P I-ECHAM5_3 IP SL-CM 4 FUB-EGMAM DM I-ECHAM5 CNRM -CM 3 BCCR-BCM 2 HadGEM ERA40
CWTs on gale days in winter (ONDJFM) A1B-20C, significant 95%
-4,00
-2,00
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
C AC NE E SE S SW W NW N undef .
day
s p
er w
inte
r
MP I-ECHAM5_1 M P I-ECHAM5_2 M P I-ECHAM5_3 IP SL-CM 4 FUB-EGMAM DM I-ECHAM5 CNRM -CM3 BCCR-BCM2 HadGEM
8ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Cyclone Tracks
Track Density
MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs
ENSEMBLE MEAN 20C Winter ENSEMBLE MEAN A1B-20C Winter
9ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Cyclone Tracks
Intensity (Lapl. P)
MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs
10ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Extreme Wind Speeds:95th percentile of daily maximum wind
MEAN of 9 ENSEMBLES GCM runs
11ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Storm loss model
Loss estimation based on
Klawa, M. und U. Ulbrich, 2003:
“A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany”
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 3, 725-732.
annual loss ≈
country
region
year
days regionv
dayregionvregionpopc
3
98
max 1)(
),(*)(* for 98max vv
„normed loss velocity“
3
98
98
v
vvfor 98vv
12ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Estimation of storm loss
Loss Ratio 20C-Period [unit: € per 1000€]
Leckebusch et al. (2007), GRL
Climate Change Signal (A2):
Loss ratio
ERA40 HadCM3 HadAM3P ECHAM4/OPYC3
ECHAM5/OM1
GER AVE 16.98 17.16 15.54 12.97 19.56
STD 13.27 12.31 14.65 9.17 14.26
UK AVE 12.77 12.79 12.33 13.55 12.62
STD 9.10 6.8 9.31 6.76 6.85
Loss ratio HadCM3 HadAM3P ECHAM4/OPYC3
ECHAM5/OM1
Ensemble average
Average with adaption
+ 22.4 - 1.9 - 9.1 + 2.8 + 3.6
Average without adaption
+ 79.9 + 8.0 + 20.5 + 38.4 + 36.7
STD with + 113 - 4.8 - 4.6 + 55.9 + 39.9
STD without + 233 + 8.9 + 42.2 + 148 + 108
13ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
1st Analysis of RCM Data
98th percentile of daily maximum wind (ONDJFM)
Data: ERA40 1961-2000; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km)
14ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Estimation of storm lossAnnual Loss Ratio Germany, RCMs (ERA40-driven) wssmax
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Lo
ss R
atio
[‰
]
GdV ERA40 ETHZ-CLM_wssmax CNRM-RM4.5_wssmax MPI-M-REMO_wssmax
KNMI-RACMO2_wssmax CHMI-ALADIN_wssmax DMI-HIRHAM_wssmax SMHI-RCA_wssmax
Data: GdV; ERA- 40 1970-1999; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km)
GdV ERA40
code 49
ERA40
MaxOf4
ETHZ-CLM
CNRM-RM4.5
MPI-M-REMO
KNMI-RACMO2
CHMI-ALADIN
DMI-HIRHAM
SMHI-RCA
Correlation to GdV (1970-2000) 0,89 0,86 0,82 0,79 0,73 0,76 0,75 0,78 0,64
Correlation to ERA40 code49 0,97 0,88 0,72 0,82 0,83 0,70 0,86 0,80
Correlation to ERA40 MO4 0,80 0,62 0,69 0,79 0,71 0,82 0,79
MEAN 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,14 0,15 0,16 0,14 0,16 0,15
STD 0,12 0,12 0,11 0,07 0,09 0,10 0,10 0,09 0,10 0,08
(max. wind speed)
15ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Estimation of storm loss
Data: GdV; ERA- 40 1970-1999; ENSEMBLES RCM-Simulations (ERA40-driven, 50km)
GdV ERA40
code 49
ERA40
MaxOf4
ETHZ-CLM
MPI-M-REMO
KNMI-RACMO2
SMHI-RCA
Correlation to GdV (1970-2000) 0,89 0,86 0,61 0,73 0,72 0,67
Correlation to ERA40 code49 0,97 0,77 0,82 0,85 0,82
Correlation to ERA40 MO4 0,77 0,69 0,82 0,79
MEAN 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,15 0,14 0,15
STD 0,12 0,12 0,11 0,07 0,10 0,08 0,09
Annual Loss Ratio Germany, RCMs (ERA40-driven) wsgsmax
0,0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Lo
ss
Ra
tio
[‰
]
GdV ERA40_code49 ERA40_MaxOf4 ETHZ-CLM_wsgsmax MPI-M-REMO_wsgsmax KNMI-RACMO2_wsgsmax SMHI-RCA_wsgsmax
(max. gust)
16ENSEMBLES GA 2007, Prague – WP6.2 Meeting 12 Nov
Contribution to Deliverables
D6.15: Assessing the uncertainty in projected changes in climate extremes and their impacts on the following sectors: health, forestry, flood risk, property damage, agriculture. Month 48
D6.16: Joint WP 6.2 paper: Impacts of projected changes in climate extremes over Europe to 2100: a review of key sectors. Month 54