1
Climate Change Workshop 2009 USACE Infrastructure ConferenceJuly 22, 2009
Robert WebbChief, Climate Analysis BranchNOAA OAR Earth System Research LaboratoryBoulder, Colorado
Climate Change, Climate Variability Climate Change, Climate Variability & Plans to enhance & Plans to enhance
NOAA climate servicesNOAA climate services
2
The nation has made progress in understanding climate variability
and change
3
Global Climate Change Impacts
in the United StatesHow has climate already changed?How is it likely to change in the future?How is climate change affecting us now where we live and work?How is it likely to affect us in the future?What are options for responding?
4
This report provides information
to make good decisions at the national, regional, and local levels to avoid already occurring impacts to better understand the consequences of our decisions about emissions as well as adaptation
5
Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced
Separating Human and Natural Influences on Climate
Human fingerprints have been identified in many aspects of climate change
•Temperature•Precipitation•Ocean heat content•Atmospheric moisture•Arctic sea ice
Moving Outside the Range of Historical Variation
800,000 Year Record of CO2 Concentration
6
Global Average Temperature, 1900 to 2100
Temperatures will continue to rise − how much depends on the amount of heat-trapping gases in the atmosphere
7
Temperature riseSea-level riseEarlier snowmelt Changes in river flowsRapidly retreating glaciersThawing permafrostLonger growing seasonIncrease in heavy downpours Longer ice-free season in the ocean, on lakes, and on rivers
Climate changes are underway in the U.S. and are projected to grow
8
Number of Days Over 100ºF
Increases in very high temperatures will have wide-ranging effects.
Recent Past, 1961-1979
Higher Emissions Scenario, 2080-99
Lower Emissions Scenario, 2080-99
9
Projected Change in Precipitation Intensity(2080-2099)
Observed Increases in Very Heavy Precipitation
(1958 to 2007)
Hydroclimatic changes are underway in the U.S. and are expected to increase
10
Projected Change in Precipitation by 2080-2099
Water resource changes are underway and will be affected by changing precipitation patterns and increasing temperatures
Confidence in precipitation projections lower than for temperature
Good confidence in overall pattern (wet north vs dry south)
Less confidence in exact location of transition
Winter
Summer
Spring
Fall
11
Less snow, more rainWet areas get wetter – floodsDry areas get drier – droughtDeclines in mountain snowpackIncreased competition for water
Climate change will stress water resources
Projected Changes in Annual Runoff Pattern
In snowmelt-dominated streams, runoff peak will shift
to earlier in the spring and late summer flows will be lower.
12
Coastal areas are increasingly at risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Projected Sea-Level Rise Areas in Florida under water with 3 foot sea level rise
Gulf Coast Roads at Risk from Sea-Level Rise
13
Land Lost During 2005 Hurricanes
Coastal areas are at increasing risk from sea-level rise and storm surge
Chandeleur Islands, east of New Orleans, before and after the 2005 hurricanes
217 square miles, 85% of the island’s land mass was lost
14
Response Strategies
“Mitigation” – reducing the amount of climate change, for example, by reducing heat-trapping emissions or increasing their removal from the atmosphere
“Adaptation” – improving our ability to cope with or avoid harmful impacts or taking advantage of newly favorable conditions
Both will be needed.
15
Elevate roads, buildings, and facilities Improve flood control structure designBuild hard structures such as levees and dikes (although this can actually increase future risks by destroying wetlands and also by creating a false sense of security that causes more development in vulnerable areas)Enhance wetlandsAccommodate inland movement through planned retreatRequire setbacks for constructionImprove evacuation planning
Adaptation Example
Responding to Sea-Level Rise and Storm Surge
16
Completion of perimeter road on US-affiliated island altered in response to projected climate changeRoad placed higher to account for sea-level riseImproved drainage system installed to handle heavier rainfallAccumulated costs, including capital costs and repairs and maintenance show the alterations to be cost effective
Adaptation ExampleClimate-Proofing a Road
17
Water
Sustainable Food
CoastalInundatio
n
Security And Many Others
Air Quality
Ocean Life & Ecosystems
Weather (Extreme Events)
Impacts Are Why Climate Matters
It’s the impacts stupid
18
…that will serve and provide authoritative climate information and services to assist the nation’s citizens in making climate-related decisions that enhance their lives and livelihoods.
Thus, our nation needs a climate service
“Decision makers at all levels of government and in the private sector need reliable and timely information to understand the possible impacts and corresponding vulnerabilities that are posed by climate change so that they can plan and respond accordingly.” – Western Governor Association statement to the House Committee on Science and Technology, May 3, 2007
19
Observations/Monitoring
The National Climate Service Partnership - no single agency can address the climate challenge
on its own
National Climate Service
Research, Modeling & Assessments
Resource Risk Management Adaptation & Mitigation
20
National Climate ServiceCongressional Interest
• HR 2454 – Sec. 452/Interagency– OSTP-led process; initiate within 30 days– Plan in two years; establish an NCS in three years
• HR 2454—Sec. 452/NOAA– Establish Climate Service Office– Network of regional and local partnerships– Utilize assets of all NOAA programs & partners
• Senate– Six Committees to act by end of Sept. 09– Commerce Committee hearing late July
2121
NOAA's contribution: Building on a strong foundationUnique breadth of mandates and responsibilities
for managing coastal and marine ecosystems, and resources and communities
A long history of building sustained partnerships with other federal agencies, the private sector, all levels of government, NGOs and the public
A commitment to and demonstrated leadership in the science underpinning a service including: observing; data management and delivery; problem focused and fundamental climate research; climate modeling, predictions and projections; and local, regional, national and international assessments
22
Some Important AttributesProvide balanced, credible,
cutting edge scientific and technical informationEngage a diversity of users in meaningful ways to ensure their needs are being met
Link human-caused climate change and changes in natural variability to meet user needs
Provide and contribute to science-based products and services to minimize climate-related risks
Strengthen observations, standards, and data stewardship
Ensure timely assessments
Improve regional and local projections of climate change
Inform policy options, decisions and management options of others
Foster climate literacy and workforce development
Provide predictions and projections of climate at scales relevant to decision support
23
• Solution and problem focused:– Sea level – Precipitation patterns and associated effects
on freshwater, nutrient, and sediment flow– Ocean temperature – Circulation patterns– Frequency, track and intensity of storms– Atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidification
Climate Service Case Study:Coastal Regions
23
24
• Problem and People focused:– Drought– Floods– Changes in snowpack (quantity and timing)– River stream flow– Fire outlooks– Physical Infrastructure
(dams, reservoirs, delivery systems)– Planning (urban, agriculture, health)
Climate Service Case Study:Water
24
25
Next steps…An interactive process that engages federal agencies, states, partner institutions and individuals from across the spectrum of climate research, service provision, users, partners and stakeholders.
A critical issue that must be addressed in these processes is the best arrangement for federal agencies to work in partnership to maximize delivery of climate services to the nation.
NOAA looks forward to engaging in these dialogues.