Top Banner
www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond James Investment Services Limited (RJIS). Registered in England and Wales number 3779657. Registered office 77 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3QQ RJIS is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. www.rjis.co.uk
29

Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

Dec 27, 2015

Download

Documents

Randolf Burke
Welcome message from author
This document is posted to help you gain knowledge. Please leave a comment to let me know what you think about it! Share it to your friends and learn new things together.
Transcript
Page 1: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS

MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD

AUGUST 2011

iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond James Investment Services Limited (RJIS). Registered in England and Wales number 3779657. Registered office 77 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3QQ RJIS is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. www.rjis.co.uk

Page 2: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

AGENDA

Page 3: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

To obtain the best return from the assets commensurate with the level of risk the

customer is prepared to accept

OBJECTIVE

Page 4: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

VIX (implied volatility) Index.Vertical axis is the 30 day volatility implied by the pricing of S&P 500 index options

RISK IS NOT STATIC

2/1/04 29/7/11'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul Jul

VIX New Methodology Index

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

Page 5: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

UKX31/12/07 31/12/08Apr Jul Oct

FTSE 100 & FTSE Eurotop 100

Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov

Index

7500 7500

7000 7000

6500 6500

6000 6000

5500 5500

5000 5000

4500 4500

4000 4000

3500 3500

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

FTSE Japan 40

FTSE 100

S&P 500

FTSE Eurotop 100

RISK IS NOT SPECIFIC TO GEOGRAPHY

Page 6: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

UK Government GiltsDown 18% in 1994

Rated Corporate Bonds Down 35% From Jan 06SLXX

3/4/06 1/4/09'09'07 '08

iShares iBoxx £ Corporate Bond

Jul Jul Jul

Pounds ETF

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

145

140

135

130

125

120

115

110

105

100

95

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

3/1/94 30/12/94Apr Jul Oct

D. Barclays Capital UK Gilt >15Yrs Sterling Bond I

Feb Mar May Jun Aug Sep Nov

Pence

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

90

88

86

84

82

80

78

76

74

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

RISK IS NOT SPECIFIC TO ASSET CLASS

Page 7: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

21.66 70.55 42.91 8.32 20.64 36.67 13.90 45.41 13.45 34.67 14.86 74.14 22.12

18.60 37.34 7.68 7.62 9.91 18.36 9.94 37.25 13.15 20.53 4.67 24.06 14.0

13.02 30.40 5.98 5.08 8.35 16.56 9.21 20.55 4.65 6.51 -13.04 22.96 13.7

10.90 21.25 5.98 -2.48 4.00 11.98 7.84 18.10 2.71 5.97 -18.68 14.8 12.8

7.21 5.33 -6.97 -15.41 -16.87 9.44 6.28 8.93 1.57 5.52 -20.73 10.09 11.33

-28.46 0.07 -7.97 -15.94 -24.97 3.69 4.65 7.59 0.00 2.03 -32.78 12.12 4.09

-28.73 -3.39 -26.09 -19.75 -29.05 2.14 4.40 4.65 -14.68 1.83 -38.00 0.50 0.50

Green=FTSE All Share (ex divs, source: Sharescope)Orange=MSCI Emerging Markets (ex Divs, source: MSCI)Blue=MSCI World (ex divs, source: MSCI)Mauve= Cash (BOE Base month average, source Bank of England)

Black=UK Govt Gilts 5-15 yrs (source: Barclays Capital)Grey=UK Corporate BBB 5-15yrs (source: Barclays Capital)Red=RJ CRB Total Return (source: Reuters Jefferies)

ANNUAL VARIATIONS IN ASSET CLASSPERFORMANCE

Page 8: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Fixing asset allocation will from time to time lead to an allocation to assets

underperforming the required rate of return

• Exposure through individual shares may be too risky for majority of clients

• Exposure through actively managed funds is expensive relative to other vehicles

that are now available and it doesn’t guarantee superior results

• Risk is traditionally adjusted by increasing the fixed interest content or other

perceived low risk assets

• Cash is an asset class in its own right

OBSERVATIONS

Page 9: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Reduce risk through asset diversification

• Reduce risk through continuous analysis of relative asset volatility

• Use low cost indexed vehicles for stock selection

Aim to deliver an absolute return commensurate with each client’s individual risk

profile, while recognising this approach may under perform recognised

commercial benchmarks

iFUNDS APPROACH

Page 10: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Which asset classes represent the best value?

• Allocation to each asset class calculated based on risk

• Use index tracking ETFs to manage the portfolio

THE INVESTMENT PROCESS

Page 11: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

BEST VALUE ASSET CLASS?

Page 12: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

EQUITIES COMMODITIES REAL ESTATE CORPORATE BONDS

UK FIXED GILTS

INDEX LINKED GILTS

CASH AND SHORT GILTS

UKUS

EuropeAsia

PacificLatin America

EnergyGrains

Industrial MetalsLivestock

Precious MetalsSofts

All Commodities

Asia

Europe

America

UK >15 yrs UK >15 yrs UK > 15 yrsCash

UK Gilts 1-5 yrs

Large CapMid Cap

Small Cap- - - - - -

LongShort

LongShort - - - - -

Currency(USD, GBP,

Euro)- - - - - -

THE ASSET CLASSES CONSIDERED

Page 13: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Consider everything in sterling return terms

• Adjust prices to reflect recent volatility

• Compare each asset class with every other asset class

• Produce a “league table” of relative positions

• Table shows which asset class provides best return for a unit of risk

• Calculations run on a daily basis

• Material changes in position tend to take place over weeks/months

RANKING THE ASSET CLASSES

Page 14: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

RANKING 1st AUGUST 2011 RANKING01/07/11

1 UK Gilts (Short Dated) (1)

2 UK Gilts (Inflation Linked) (2)

3 European Large Cap Equities (Inverse) (17)

4 Precious Metals (8)

5 Asia Equities (Dividend) (14)

6 US Property (3)

7 UK Gilts (Long Dated) (5)

8 UK Corporate Bonds (Long Dated) (22)

BUFFER ZONE

9 Japanese Small Cap Equities (23)

10 Asia Large Cap Equities (Emerging Markets) (25)

TOP RANKED ASSET CLASSES

Page 15: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

RISK BASED ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 16: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Size of each investment in the portfolio is dependent on its recent historical risk profile, combined with the portfolio type selected i.e. the higher the portfolio risk, the greater the exposure to the riskier assets available

• Risk Tolerance is the expected immediate loss (or gain) on the overall fund as a result of the price of one individual holding changing by one standard deviation

Example

£1,000,000 ‘Yellow’ portfolio. Risk tolerance = 0.5%.(ie expected immediate loss or gain = £5000 (0.5% x £1m))

Volatility* Position Size

20% £5000 / 0.2 = £25,000

15% £5000 / 0.15 = £33,333

10% £5000 / 0.1 = £50,000

*200 day moving average standard deviation

RISK BASED ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 17: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

PORTFOLIO ANNUAL RETURNS

ANNUAL VOLATILITY

RISK TOLERANCE

ORANGE 10.7% pa 8.4% pa 0.65%

YELLOW 9.5% pa 7.4% pa 0.50%

GREEN 8.6% pa 6.3% pa 0.40%

BLUE 8.0% pa 5.8% pa 0.35%

INDIGO 6.8% pa 4.6% pa 0.25%

• Annual returns are average gross return per annum (transaction costs accounted for but consideration should be given to the impact of management fees)

• Volatility: A measure of how risky an asset is – the higher the figure the more risky the asset• Risk Tolerance is the overall fund loss due to expected negative performance per investment (as per example from previous slide)

SPECTRUM FUNDS

Page 18: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Note: This chart represents simulated performance and the past results are not indicative of future performance. Figures used are net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees. Source: iFunds/National Office of Statistics

SPECTRUM RETURNS V INFLATION

Page 19: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• Note: This chart shows simulated performance of the iFunds Spectrum range and actual performance of the Retail Price Index (RPI). Spectrum figures used are net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees. Past results are not indicative of future performance. All performance figures shown are annualised (geometric) average three year period returns (ending 31 st December for each year shown). Data sources: iFunds and National Office of Statistics.

SPECTRUM RETURNS V INFLATION

Page 20: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

ASSET ALLOCATION 1 AUGUST 2011

Page 21: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

CHANGES IN ASSET ALLOCATION

Page 22: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

USE EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS

• Index Trackers• Low Total Expense Ratios (TERs) of 0.40% versus 1.80% for active managed funds• Low ‘frictional costs’ e.g. Bid/offer spreads• Real time dealing• Liquidity• Low tracking error• Transparency of holdings• Wide range• Suit active management• No outperformance or underperformance relative to index tracked

*Source: Barclays ETF Study, June 2010, European Funds

STOCK SELECTION

Page 23: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

BLUE PORTFOLIO SIMULATED RETURNS SINCE 1997

Note: This chart represents simulated performance and the past results are not indicative of future performance. Figures used are net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees.

9/9/97 29/7/11'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

FTSE APCIMS Stock Market Balanced Portfolio & Z. Spectrum03.5Blue6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

6000

5500

5000

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2000

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

Page 24: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

GREEN PORTFOLIO SIMULATED RETURNS SINCE 1997

Note: This chart represents simulated performance and the past results are not indicative of future performance. Figures used are net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees.

9/9/97 29/7/11'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

FTSE APCIMS Stock Market Balanced Portfolio & Z. Spectrum04.0Green

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

Page 25: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

YELLOW PORTFOLIO SIMULATED RETURNS SINCE 1997

Note: This chart represents simulated performance and the past results are not indicative of future performance. Figures used are net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees.

9/9/97 29/7/11'99 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10

FTSE APCIMS Stock Market Balanced Portfolio & Z. Spectrum05.0Yellow

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

7000

6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

ScopeShareChart (c) www.sharescope.co.uk

Page 26: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• A multi- asset class investment process tailored to each customer’s individual risk profile

• Use of collective index trackers to reduce stock specific risk

• A focus on absolute real returns above RPI

• Targeted portfolio risk profiles

SUMMARY

Page 27: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

WHO CAN BENEFIT FROM IFUNDS APPROACH?

• Clients with a specific risk/return objective in mind

• Clients who are not concerned with performance relative to a commercial benchmark (e.g. FTSE 100), as long as their personal long term risk/reward objective is achieved

SUMMARY

Page 28: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

• iFunds founded 2002 with

• Over 60 years combined investment experience

• Total iFunds assets under management £140m*

• iFunds is a trading name of Raymond James Investment Services Limited, part of Raymond James Financial Inc. (RJF)

• RJIS assets £2.6bn*

• RJF global assets exceed $278bn*

• Relationship provides:

- Platform for active investment management- Direct stock market access- Safe custody – all assets held by Pershing Securities Limited.- Financial stability-Economies of scale

* As at 30 June 2011

iFUNDS AND RAYMOND JAMES

Page 29: Www.ifunds.co.uk SPECTRUM PORTFOLIOS MANAGING RISK IN A VOLATILE WORLD AUGUST 2011 iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond.

www.ifunds.co.uk

Volatility is the annualised standard deviation based on monthly performance figures

Return figures based on bid price at close of business on last day of the month

Returns for simulations are calculated net of transaction costs but gross of annual management fees

iFunds is a registered trade mark used under sub-licence from Raymond James Investment Services Limited (RJIS). Registered in England and Wales number 3779657. Registered office 77 Cornhill, London, EC3V 3QQ

RJIS is a member of the London Stock Exchange and is authorised and regulated by the Financial Services Authority. www.rjis.co.uk

Performance

This document is issued by iFunds. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Quoted yields are not guaranteed. Except where otherwise indicated performance numbers are sourced from iFunds. We reasonably believe that the information contained herein is accurate as at the date of publication. This document must not be relied on for purposes of any investment decisions. This document may include simulations which are based on our current investment processes. We undertake no obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements. Actual results could differ materially from those simulated.

The value of investments, and the income from them, can do down as well as up and you may not recover the amount of your original investment. Where an investment involves exposure to a foreign currency, changes in rates of exchange may cause the value of the investment, and the income from it, to go up or down.

DISCLOSURES