“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat. “That depends a good deal on where you want to get.

Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation

Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury

http://io.ssc.govt.nz/pathfinder

1 July 2003

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat.

“That depends a good deal on where you want to get to” said the Cat.

“I don't much care where” said Alice.

“Then it doesn't matter which way you walk” said the Cat.

“--so long as I get somewhere” Alice added as an explanation.

“Oh, you're sure to do that” said the Cat, “if you only walk long enough!”

Outcomes: A Way of Walking

Map of Presentation

• Making strategic choices: macro & micro• Continuous improvement models• Interventions: planning for performance• Demonstrating value• Building a better future: management & culture

“From not really knowing … to reasonable confidence” (J. Mayne) “It is better to roughly right, than perfectly ignorant” (H. Hatry)

Why Focus on Outcomes?Why Focus on Outcomes? One Reason … Three Threads

1. Outcomes – by definition – matter to New Zealanders

2. Value to citizens, residents, people

3. Taonga – what the public treasures

Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based Goal: Strengthen outcome-focussed, evidence-based governance, at all levels of Governmentgovernance, at all levels of Government

Why Pathfinder ?

Build NZ Capability to Deliver Results - at Programme, Agency, Sector and ‘Joined Up’ Levels

PATHFINDER

Managing forOutcomes(SOI / MfO)

Value-for-Money(VfM)

DECISION MAKING SYSTEMS; TOOLBOX;CAPABILITY DEVELOPMENT

STRATEGY,CAPABILITY,

PERFORMANCE

TRADE-OFFS,TRANSFERS

Review of the Centre(ROC)

Pathfinder’s Raison D’etre

After 10+ yrs, output funding has delivered

Quantum gains requires modified approach

Keep what works (output focus), but …

Complete public sector management modelLink outcomes (through outputs) to inputs

Meet requirements of legislation, parliament, etc

Ensure we deliver to citizens, taxpayers, people

Develop capability & management approach

1. Strategy, Policy & Planning Strategy links outcomes to actions & resources Build mgmt systems (not measurement systems) Five step continuous improvement model Robust intervention design & monitoring systems

Using performance data in case mgmt systems Faster course correction during implementation Improve information on likely impact vs. cost

2. Managing Interventions

Accentuate the positive - Eliminate the negative- - - - Mary Poppins School of Management - - - -

Using Evidence to Improve Outcomes

Who Makes Strategic Choices?

• The Minister or Ministers?• The Boss of Bosses? • General Managers? • Managers? • Planners & Policy Wonks?• Delivery Staff?• Business Analysts & Evaluators?

Good operators should - in their areas of responsibility We also influence strategic choices made around us

Organisational Models

Source: Department of Conservation, NZStratified Systems Theory - Jacques

Pathfinder’s Building Blocks• Strategic Planning• State Indicators• Intervention Logic • Impact Assessment • Optimising the Intervention Mix• Benchmarking• Operational Decision-making• Working Across Agencies

Use Building Blocks to Build Management SystemsUse Building Blocks to Build Management Systems

Living documents:Summary & guidance on


STRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYSTRATEGIC PLANNING & CAPABILITYCore Outcomes

of AgencyDefined

StateIndicators

ImpactMeasures

Risk-basedTargeting

Tools

StrategicPriorities &

Planning

Benchmarking& Best Practice

MaximisingBenefits from

Intervention Mix

BusinessProcess Design

ManagementApplications

Linked OutcomeMeasures

After a business model used by the Department of Corrections

Strategic Decision Making in an MfO Envionment

ContinuousImprovement

EnvironmentalScan; Identify

Outcomes

Measure StateIndicators

AssessOutputs &

Impact

ID Options;Deliver 'Best'Interventions

ID Major Areasfor Change(& Goals)

Where are we?(Did we get there?)

Where do wewant to go?

How do weget there?

How did we do?

AKA - “The Five Step Continuous

Improvement Model”

Where are we?Where do we go?

0

1

2

3

4

5

15-

19

20-

24

25-

29

30-

34

35-

39

40-

44

45-

49

50-

54

55-

59

60-

64

65-

69

70-

74

75-

79

Age of driver

Dri

ver

fata

litie

s p

er

10

0 m

illio

n k

m

1989/901997/98

? FOCUS AREAS ?




Outcomes


AssessOutputs &

Impact





How do weget there?

How did we do?



How Do We Get There?(Linking Outcomes to Funding Decisions)

Logic models provide a structured tool for working through an agencies intervention choices:

Which outcomes matter most Value of intervention options Define agency output mix ID poorly aligned effort / $$$

Individual interventions: Clarify objectives / design Identify & manage risk Gauge success

Outputs

Activities

Inputs

End/Final Outcomes

Intermediate Outcomes

Immediate Results

O2

A2

I2

O3

A3

I3

O4

A4

I4

IO

IR

Etc

Etc

Etc

Planning for PerformancePlanning for Performance Policy … Design … Planning for Feedback … then Action

Plan(where do we want to go?)

Measures(how will we know when

we get there?)

Activities(to implement the plan)

Reports(did we reach our goal?)

The Policy Management Cycle: After Heather Daynard, Prospect Management Enterprises Inc, Canada




Outcomes


AssessOutputs &

Impact





How do weget there?

How did we do?



Influence DiagramsMap problem chain (cause, effect & influences)

Logic ModelsIntervention design, ‘theory of impact’, risk

management & performance monitoring

Logical Policy, Design & Monitoring

Outputs

Coverage

Near-term Results

Intermediate Outcomes

End Outcomes

To improve the lives of our people

Generate significant change …

Affect knowledge & behaviours …

Reaching intended areas & people …

Of integrity & right quantity …

OUTPUT

IMMEDIATEIMPACT

INTERMEDIATEOUTCOME

ENDOUTCOME

thenif …

if …

if …

One Grand Hypothesis breaks into …

Three or more Mini-hypotheses (some of which can be tested)

then

then

From: Karen Baehler, Victoria University of Wellington

Managing PerformanceManaging PerformanceOutputs … Coverage … Outcomes … Decision cycles

Time Delays

OUTPUTS OUTCOMES

QUANTITY& QUALITY

COVERAGENEAR-TERM

RESULTSINTERMEDIATE

OUTCOMESAGENCY ENDOUTCOMES

HIGH

LOW

MeasurementCosts

MeasurementChallenges

LINKAGE TOOUR ACTIONS

VALUE TOTHE NATION

RE

LA

TIV

E M

AG

NIT

UD

E

Matching Measures to Uses

Long-Term Near-Term OutputsOutcomes Results

External UseAccountability to

Political Level

Program Advocacy

Budget Review

Public Communication

Internal UseStrategic Planning

Program Evaluation

Operational Planning

and Control

PerformanceAppraisal

Adapted by Heather Daynard & Roger Waite from: John R. Allen, Management Consultant

NZ

NZ

NZ

NZ

Output Measures, Proxies, Predictors

(include with caveats)

Few Outcome

Measures Available

or Required

Ideal

Performance

Measures

Descriptive Statistics

(planning information)

LOW HIGH

HIGH

LOW

Degree of Control/Accountability

Degree of Measurabilit

y of Outcomes

From: Performance-Based Management at Forest Renewal BC

Measurability & Control

Building a Better FutureBuilding a Better Future Focus effort … Demonstrate results … Learn & re-orientate



AssessOutputs &

Impact




Where do we want to go?

How do we get there?How did we do?

• Manage cycles of change – not one-off gains

• Improve state indicators & targeting of effort

• Up-front policy / design – w. focus on monitoring

• Building evidence-base• Cultivation & weeding:

making hard decisions

‘‘New’ Intervention ParadigmsNew’ Intervention Paradigms

• Changing the world (not just recipients of services)• Careful specification of problem chain • Balancing ‘what works’ vs. innovation• Ex ante design: outputs & getting performance info• Ex post analysis & redesign of interventions• Reallocation of resources

Policy staff / intervention designers responsibilities:

[a] Specify coherent intervention approach; & also [b] Designing systems to monitor key results

Organisation & CultureAccentuating the Positive

Accept responsibility for achieving outcomes Renew intellectual capacity & agency creativity Integrated set of initiatives – backed by evidence (add

new initiatives to build on momentum / gains)

Analytical rigour / honesty, not mgmt. paraphernalia Reduce real complexity to ‘workable dimensions’ Active risk-taking, not passive risk avoidance

Build sector-wide knowledge, people, teams

From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank

Eliminating the negative

Senior ManagementAccentuating the Positive

Strong leadership - Ambitious vision & targetsUnderstanding output-outcome links & the limits of

performance; set direction to surpass those limits (limits set by institutional & production frontiers)

Fund portfolio of investments & near-term outputsBacking evidence, esp. vs. conventional wisdomManaging productive multi-agency partnerships,

coordinated at senior levels (often CEO to CEO)

From Tony Bliss, LTSA (NZ) & World Bank

Systems that Build on Positive Results – and Eliminate the Negative

Better Results for Citizens: Strategy, Planning & Implementation

Dr Roger WaiteProject Manager, Pathfinder Project; NZ Treasury


1 July 2003

“Would you tell me, please, which way I ought to walk from here?” asked Alice of the Cheshire Cat. “That depends a good deal on where you want to get.

Documents

management culturefrom

better results

cheshire cat

output focus

nz capability

better future

way of walkingmap

asked alice