Worthy of a Great Nation? NASA's New Direction

Worthy of a Great Nation?NASA’s New Direction

Mary HaleySUNY Buffalo

LAI 531 Science Curricula

Obama Administration Original Plan

• In February 2010, President Obama put forth a new plan for NASA

• Highlights of the FY 2011 plan:– Cancels Constellation program – Extends International Space Station (ISS) to 2020– Confirms Space Shuttle retirement in 2010– Heavily invests in R&D– Encourages/supports commercial space flight – Establishes the Summer of Innovation education program

• Minor changes announced on April 15, 2010

NASA’s Current Program

• President Bush’s Vision for Space Exploration 2004– Return to Moon with Mars as ultimate goal– Retire ISS in 2016– Retire Space Shuttle by 2010– Established COTS (Commercial Orbital Transportation

Services) program– Creation of Constellation program

• Uses funds from Shuttle and ISS programs• Manned mission by 2014• Return to Moon by 2020• Use Moon experience for future Mars mission

Constellation Program

• Ares I and V rockets– Ares I—low Earth orbit– Ares V—beyond low Earth orbit– Current development state

• Orion capsule– Current development state– Cost/schedule overruns

• Altair Lander – Current development state– funding

Issues with 2004 Vision

• Goals exceed budget• NASA has funds to create new system or explore, but not both • Missed schedules and cost overruns• Orion redesigns• Cannot develop Ares V until Ares I complete• Underuses ISS capabilities• Focus on destinations, not overall goals

Obama Administration and New Policy Choices

• According to GAO (Government Accountability Office), space exploration was a top priority for new administration

• White House Office of Science and Technology Policy called for a review of human spaceflight

• Administration recommended formation of Review of United States Human Spaceflight Plans committee– Chosen by NASA administrator– Honest brokers of policy

Review Committee

• Known as Augustine Committee• Produced report titled Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program

Worthy of a Great Nation (Oct. 2009)• About the committee

– Qualifications– Time-frame– Research

Augustine Committee Research

• What did the committee consider?– Program sustainability, cost, international standing,

workforce effect, commercial transport, scientific value, exploration, safety, and public engagement

– Formulated 5 questions:1 What should be the future of the Space Shuttle?2 What should be the future of the ISS?3 On what should the next heavy-lift launch vehicle be based?4 How should crews be carried to low Earth orbit?5 What is the most practicable strategy for exploration beyond

low Earth orbit?

Question 1: What should be the future of the Space Shuttle?

• Retire shuttle in 2010– Fund it adequately– Seats on Russian spacecraft

• Continuation of shuttle– Limited missions– Safety concerns– Highly unlikely scenario

Question 2: What should be the future of the ISS?

• Recommend ISS to continue to 2020– Investment returns– 25 years of development and 5 years of use under 2004

Vision• Full research capability not yet realized

– International relations• Most important benefit as cited by the committee• Needs US funds

Question 3: On what should the next heavy lift launch vehicle be based?

• NASA- heritage vehicle– Ares I with Ares V – Ares V dual-lite

• EELV-heritage super heavy-lift vehicle– EELV=evolved expendable launch vehicle– Delta and Atlas rockets– Used for DOD, intelligence, weather, science experiments

• Shuttle-derived vehicle

Question 4: How should crews be carried to low Earth orbit?

• International Partners– Russia to ferry astronauts for $51 million per seat

• U.S. government systems• Ares rocket & NASA

• Delta/Atlas rockets• Commercial Carriers

– SpaceX & Orbital Sciences

Commercial SpacecraftSpaceX

• COTS Award/CRS (Commercial Resupply Svcs)– 12 missions to ferry supplies to ISS

• Falcon 9 rocket to launch in May 2010• Falcon 9 heavy-lift in development

– Dragon capsule• Slated to fly after test of Falcon 9• Will be used for ISS supply missions w/ later human

rating• 7 passenger capsule

Commercial SpacecraftOrbital Sciences

• COTS Award– contracted for 8 supply missions to ISS

• Extensive flight history– Flown 55 missions since 1990– Taurus II to fly in 2011– Cygnus spacecraft

• Supplies only

Question 5: What is the most practicable strategy for exploration beyond low Earth orbit?

• Moon first • Flexible Path to asteroids, spent comets, Lagrange points, moons of

Mars, and Mars/Moon• Robotics in deep space• Study for signs of life, water, and resources• Moon as practice point

• Why not Mars first?• Committee’s 5 possible options

– First two options required to use existing budget

Option 1Existing Budget

• Retire shuttle in 2010• Decommission ISS in 2016• Ares I/Orion not ready for ISS

– 2017 delivery date• Ares V late in 2020• Altair in 2030s?• Moon return in 2020s but no lander

Option 2Existing Budget

• Retire Space Shuttle 2010• Extends ISS to 2020• Lunar exploration with Ares V lite• Technology development program• Encourage commercial programs to low Earth orbit• No heavy lift rocket until 2020s• No lunar lander (Altair)

Option 3Executable Version of Program

• Budget different, program the same• Retire shuttle in 2010• De-orbit ISS in 2016• Develop Orion, Ares I and Ares V

– 2017 earliest date for Orion/Ares I• Lunar return in 2020s• Build Altair lander

Option 4 Moon First

• Extend ISS to 2020• Develop Orion, Ares I and V, Altair and Lunar surface systems• Fund technology program• Commercial vehicles to low Earth orbit (2016)• Lunar return 2020s

– Option 4A• Retire shuttle 2010• Develop Ares V lite—one for Altair and one for Orion

– Option 4B• Extend shuttle to 2015• Heavy-lift design more shuttle like

Option 5Flexible Path

• Explore asteroids, spent comets, Moon, Mars orbit, Mars moons, Lagrange points

• Retire Shuttle in 2010• Extend ISS to 2020• Fund technology program• Exploration to begin in 2020s• Public engagement--one event per year

– Option 5a• Ares V lite

– Option 5b• EELV-heritage commercial heavy-lift launcher

– Option 5c• Shuttle derived heavy-lift launcher

Committee Recommendations

• Moon first and flexible options most viable• NASA to encourage commercial space industry through

competition – Develop backup rocket in case of failure to deliver– Moon landing options

• Fund technology development• Continue development on Orion and heavy-lift vehicle• Congress to appropriate funds but then allow for administrator

to allocate as necessary• Should focus on goals and not destination• Issue advocates?

Obama Administration Original Plan

• Most similar to flexible path • Cancel all of Constellation program• Retire Space Shuttle 2010• Extend ISS to 2020• Invest in technology development• Robotic precursor missions to points of exploration• Modernize Kennedy Space Center• Create new competition to grow commercial space industry

– developing new craft and human-rating existing vehicles– additional incentives to current domestic cargo providers

(FY 2011)

Obama Administration Plan

• Planetary Science and Heliophysics– Several planetary missions including those to the moon,

Mars, Jupiter– Several studies of the sun and its outer reaches

• Climate Change research and green aviation• NextGen research • Education initiatives and the Summer of Innovation program

Changes to President Obama’s Plan

• Decision on new heavy-lift vehicle by 2015– Development of spacecraft by 2025 for beyond LEO– Send astronauts to an asteroid first– Mid 2030s orbit Mars with later landing

• Orion capsule to be sent to ISS as emergency escape• Plan to add 2500 more jobs

• commercial industry, KSC modernization• $40 million for job creation plan

• KSC to lose around 9,000 jobs• 14,000 jobs lost in related industries

Congressional Hearings

• Hearings on February 25 and March 23 for Congress• Hearing on February 24 for Senate• Will budget make commercial companies too important to fail?• Is commercial industry ready?

– Bolden, “Every shuttle is a commercial vehicle built by a commercial vendor…”

• $9 billion invested in Constellation • Competition and international standing• Defense/classified materials concerns • Reduction in workforce and safety

Congressional Hearings

• Rep. Fudge, “…fails to inspire the future generation of scientists and astronauts, something that is so critical at this point in American history when we are talking about the need for more students to be excited about careers in STEM fields.”

• Rep. Wolf requested an alternative in a letter to General Bolden—compromise?– 30 days to respond– Bolden says no Plan B

Possible Outcomes

• Compromise a strong possibility– Flexible path using Atlas V lite– Low Earth orbit to commercial– Focus on exploration, not destination

• High uncertainty about international standing, the future of space travel in the United States

• No vote yet on budget and direction of NASA

References• Achenbach, Joel. “NASA Budget for 2011 Eliminates Funds for Manned Lunar Missions.” The Washington Post. Web. 1

February 2010.http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2010/01/31/AR2010013101058.html?nav=emailpage

• Borenstein, Seth. “For NASA No Easy Answer for Next Space Destination.” U.S. News & World Report. Web. 23 February 2010.

http://www.usnews.com/science/articles/2010/02/23/for-nasa-no-easy-answer-for-next-space-destination.html• Dowd, Alan W. “Surrendering Outer Space.” Policy Review 156 (Aug/Sept 2009): 55-66.• Huntley, Wade L., Bock, Joseph G., and Weingartner, Miranda. “Planning the Unplannable: Scenarios on the future of

Space.” Space Policy 26 (2010): 25-38.• Loston, Adena Williams, Steffen, Peggy L., and McGee, Steven. “NASA Education: Using Inquiry in the Classroom so that

Students See Learning in a Whole New Light.” Jrnl of Science Education & Technology 14:2 (June 2005): 147-156• NASA.“NASA Supports the President’s Educate to Innovate Campaign with Summer of Innovation to Bring Students the

Universe.” NASA , 2010. Web. 6 January 2010• http://www.nasa.gov/topics/nasalife/summer_of_innovation.html.• NASA. “President Bush Offers New Vision for NASA.” NASA, 2004. Web. 14 January 2004

http://www.nasa.gov/missions/solarsystem/bush_vision.html.• NASA. “NASA & the Next Generation Air Transportation System (Nextgen).” NASA, 2007. Web 6 June 2007

http://www.aeronautics.nasa.gov/docs/nextgen_whitepaper_06_26_07.pdf• NASA. “Fiscal Year 2011 Budget Estimates.” NASA, 2010. Web. 1 February 2010• http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/420990main_FY_201_%20Budget_Overview_1_Feb_2010.pdf

References

• NASA. “Home on Lagrange.” NASA, 2004. Web. 18 February 2004. http://www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/f-lagrange.html

• Review of U.S. Human Spaceflight Plans Committee. “Seeking a Human Spaceflight Program Worthy of a Great Nation.” 22 October 2009. http://www.nasa.gov/pdf/396093main_HSF_Cmte_FinalReport.pdf

• Sadeh, Eligar. “Space Policy Challenges Facing the Barack Obama Administration.” Space Policy 25 (2009): 109-116.• Shiga, David. “NASA’s at the Crossroads, Tryin’ to Flag a Ride.” New Scientist 202.2705 (2009): 6-7. • United States. House of Representatives. Science and Technology Committee. Representative Bart Gordon Holds a

Hearing on the NASA Budget Request. FDCH Political Transcripts. Washington: 25 February 2010. • United States. House of Representatives. Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on Commerce, Justics, Science

and Related Agencies. Representative Alan B. Mollohan Holds a Hearing on the NASA Budget Overview. FDCH Political Transcripts. Washington: 23 March 2010.

• United States Senate. Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation. Senator Jay Rockefeller Holds a Hearing on the NASA budget. FDCH Political Transcripts. Washington: 24 February 2010.

• White House Office of the Press Secretary. “President Barack Obama on Space Exploration in the 21st Century.” National Aeronautics and Space Administration, 2010. Web. 15 April 2010. http://www.nasa.gov/news/media/trans/obama_ksc_trans.html