World Meteorological Organization WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme and Initiatives in Support of Climate Risk Management By Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.

World Meteorological OrganizationWorld Meteorological Organization

WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme and and

Initiatives in Support of Climate Risk Initiatives in Support of Climate Risk ManagementManagement

By By

Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction Programme

Agenda

• Hydro-meteo hazards and link to climate

• About WMO

• WMO DRR Programme

• WMO Initiative in support of climate adaptation

WMO Mandate related to Natural Hazards

(Weather, Climate and Water)

Primary mandate for: Severe storms, tropical cyclones (hurricanes and typhoons), storm surges, floods, cold spells, heat waves, cold waves, droughts,

volcanic ash transport, air pollution, Sand and dust storms, etc.

Contributing to: Forest fires, locust swarms, health epidemics, tsunami, etc…

Increasing Risks under a Changing Climate

Intensity

Frequency

Heatwaves

Heavy rainfall / Flood

Tropical Cyclones

Coastal Marine Hazards

Strong Wind

Water ResourceWater ResourceManagementManagement

HealthHealth IndustryIndustry

Food Food securitysecurity

TransportTransport

EnergyEnergy

Urban areasUrban areas

Hazards’ intensityand frequencyare increasing

Exposure is increasing !

Need fordisaster riskmanagement

Leveraging WMO networks to improve DRR and climate risk management at national level WMO leverages global, regional, national

cooperation with national development to ensure development and availability of technical

capacities at the national level.

WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection and

Forecasting to Support Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems

Global Telecommunication System

Global Observing System

Coordinated Satellite System

Global Data Processing and Forecasting System

National Meteorological

&

Hydrological

Services

WMO: Coordinates an Operational Global Coordination Network for Hazard Detection

and Forecasting

Global Telecommunication SystemExchanges bulletins, forecasts, and other information

National Meteorological & Hydrological Services developand disseminate authoritativewarnings for the country

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Government and civil defence

authorities

Media Generalpublic

Privatesector

Example: Cyclone Preparedness Programme in Bangladesh

Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeStrategic Foundation

WMO Strategic Plan

2008-2011

Hyogo Framework for Action

2005-2015

WMO Strategic Goals WMO Strategic Goals

in Disaster Risk Reductionin Disaster Risk Reduction

WMO Action Plan in Disaster Risk Management

Risk TransferRisk Identification

Historical hazard data, analysis and changing hazard trends

Exposed assets & vulnerability

Risk quantification

PREPAREDNESS: early warning systems, emergency planning and response capacities

MITIGATION AND PREVENTION: Medium to long term sectoral planning (e.g. building resilient infrastructure)

CAT insurance & bonds

Weather Risk Management

Other emerging products

Risk Reduction

Information and Knowledge SharingEducation and training

Governance and Organizational Coordination and Cooperation

12

3

139 out of 187 Countries responded

24/5254 %

25/3474 %

10/1283 %

18/2282 %

14/1974 %

44/4892 %

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/drr/natRegCap_en.html

National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey (2006) Mapping NMHSs’ Capacities, Gaps and Needs

National DRR Capacity Assessment Survey

(2006) Results (2/2)

Country

Category

Planning & Legislation

Infrastructure

Observation

ForecastingTelecom.

TechnicalCooperatio

n&

Capacities

Partnerships&

ConOps

Needs %

1 × × × ×Need for development along all aspects 12

2

Need for improvements along all aspects

42

Need for improvements

3

Guidance materials neededGenerally support other countries

26

Need for improvements

4

Self sufficient

Support other countries

20

1. Projects to Support Early Warning Systems

Identification of Good Practices

Documentation of Good Practices

Development of Guidelines for EWS

implementation

Implementation of EWS projects and

sharing of good practices

WMO Approach to Assist its Members in Strengthening Their

Early Warning Systems

Effective Early Warning Systems Require Coordination and Collaboration among

Various Stakeholders at National to Local Levels

Media

Academia and

Research

Other Ministries(e.g. health, agriculture,

environment, etc

Disaster Risk Management Agency

and ministry in chargeNational to local levels

Non-governmental organizations,

private sector, etc (e.g. Red Cross

and Red Crescent Societies)

Scientific and Technical Services

(e.g. Meteorological & Hydrological

Services

CoordinationCollaborations

Project TypesCountry Category

Cat 1 Cat 2 Cat 3 Cat 4

Modernisation of Meteorological and Hydrological Infrastructure

Technical Capacity Development of Meteorlogical and Hydrological Services

•Severe Weather Forecast Demonstration Project (SWFDP)

•Flash Flood Guidance (FFG)

•Sand and Dust Storm (SDS)

•Drought

•Storm Surge

•Heat Health

National EWS Partnerships & Concept of Operations with Disaster Risk Management Agencies

Guidelines and Documentation of Good practices

Strengthening of National EWS through National Projects

Project Types and Link with Country Categories

Strengthening of National Early Warning Systems

Projects Mapping

Technical Capacity Development of NMHS

Modernisation of NMHS infrastructures

Guidelines & Documentation of good practices in EWS

Technical Capacity Development of NMHS

Guidelines & Documentation of good practices in EWS (DRR)

National EWS Partnerships & Conops

Modernisation of NMHS infrastructures (WB/ISDR/UNDP/WMO)

Linking Humanitarian Agencies to operational network of Meteorlogical

Services and Regional Specialized Center to access official forecasts and warnings

(up to 10 days lead-time)

Communication channels with official and credible sources of forecasts and

warnings to be established.

Launching an Operational Project with Humanitarian Agencies (March 2009)

Communication and Dissemination

National Meteorological and Hydrological Services

Government and civil defence

authorities

Media Generalpublic

Privatesector

Humanitarian agencies

New

2nd Multi Hazard Early Warning SymposiumMay 5-7, 2009 (Toulouse, France)

1. Discuss four “good practices” in early warning systems presented by a team of national experts from the countries

France Vigilance system Shanghai Emergency Preparedness System Bangladesh Cyclone Preparedness Programme Cuba tropical cyclone early warning system

2. Draft the First Guidelines on “Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems with Focus on Institutional Coordination and Cooperation”, and;

3. Recommendations on concrete initiatives to improve coordination and collaboration among NMHS and disaster risk management agencies for better early warning systems

2. Projects on Hazard Databases and Statistics

Number of NMHS Keeping Hazard Data Archives and Status

• Very few countries maintain impact databases

• Data archived are not standardised

• 90 % of NMHS indicated their need for guidelines and support in hazard analysis, mapping and statistics (WMO 2006 DRR survey)

TOP CONCERNS OF MEMBERS

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140 Data Archived Impacts data (loss of life + economic losses)

1. Hazard data and metadata

2. Hazard analysis and mapping methodologies

3. Capacity development and training

4. Demonstration projects in selected countries

To provide standardization guidelines for Meteorological, Hydrological and climatic-related hazards:

Hazard data and informationNeed to initiate systematic projects…

1. Flood hazard data and mapping guidelines (underway)

2. Drought assessment and mapping (underway)

3. Storm Surge hazard data and mapping (underway)

4. Other meteorological hazard data and mapping guidelines (to be initiated in 2009)

5. Tools to assess evolution of hazard trends in the future …

Hazard data and informationList of Projects

IPCC 4th Assessment Report, 2007

Climate variability and change and their impacts are not uniform

geographically

(IPCC, 2007)

Trends in heavy rainfall

Drou

ghts

Need for production of local climate information…

Highly Resource Intensive!

Trends in Frost and Heat Waves

WB/ISDR/WMO/UNDP Projects,

GRIP & Climate Risk Management (UNDP)

Other probabilistic Risk Assessment (WB)

Provide opportunities to implement hazard guidelines at the national level

3. Support of Weather Risk Management and Catastrophe

Insurance Markets

Role of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services in Financial Risk Transfer Markets

• Availability and accessibility of historical and real-time data

• Data quality assurance, filling data gaps, other value-added services

• Reliable, authoritative and timely data for contract design and settlement

• Forecasts for portfolio management and forward looking risk analysis

• Technical support and service delivery

First Step: Expert Meeting on Role of National Met Services to support Financial Risk Transfer Markets

Dec 2007, WMO Headquarters

• Participants:– World Bank, World Food Programme, Weather Risk Management Association,

8 largest Reinsurers

– 13 National Meteorological Services

– Reps. from climate research community

• Outcomes: – Raised Awareness within WMO and its network

– Discussed role of NMHS in supporting Financial risk transfer markets

– Discussed needs, challenges and emerging opportunities

– Discussed requirements of these markets and role of World Bank, WFP and bi-lateral donors

• All documents and final report available at:http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/dpm/cat-insurance-wrm-markets-2007/index_en.html

Progress with Catastrophe (CAT) Insurance / Bond and Weather Risk Management Markets (through partners)

Drought Risk Management in Ethiopia

Malawi Drought Risk Management

Southeastern and Central European Risk Insurance Facility

UK Flood CAT Bond

CAT Bond Markets post Hurricane Andrew

Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility

Pacific Risk Insurance Facility

Indian Agricultural Risk

European Agricultural Risk

Hydro Electric Power Risk Contracts

Wind Power Risk Contracts

Catastrophe Insurance and Bond Markets

Weather Risk Management Markets (ART)

Heating Degree Day Contracts

Central Asia and Caucasus Disaster

What is Next?

1. Raise awareness among NMHS on the emergence, needs and opportunities

2. Develop a joint work plan with World Bank, WFP and WRMA, and present to WMO governing bodies for endorsement (2009 - 2010)

– National Capacity development projects Modernization of observing networks, Data Rescue Programmes, Data management and archiving systems, technical tools and methodologies

3. Facilitation of National Met Services participation and technical advice

WMO initiative to address the climate information challenge ….

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

Adaptation to Climate Variability and Change

National DevelopmentPolicies

National DevelopmentPoliciesDisaster Risk

Management

Disaster RiskManagement

Climate Information

Decision makers (all climate sensitive sectors)

Climate Service Providers

User InteractionMechanism

Global Framework for Climate Information

Goal:– the development of science-based climate

information for climate risk management and adaptation to climate variability and change throughout the world to support poverty alleviation and sustainable development.

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Operational climate forecasting and analysis systems

Climate research, modelling and tools

Observations, monitoring, and data management

User Sectors(Improved decisions and policies)

Water resource Management

Agriculture

TransportationDisaster Risk Management

Health

Tourism

Energy

Urban infrastructure development

NGOs

UN Agencies

Universities

Aid agencies

Media

Regional Development Institutions Private Sector

(Development and provision of climate services)Retrospective, real time and longer term, including seasonal to multi-decadal prediction

Science-based, and user-driven, based on requirement

User Interaction Mechanism

Network for Climate Services

Global Framework for Climate Services

Legacy of the World Climate Conference I, II, III

World Climate Conference-3Better climate information for a better future

Geneva, Switzerland31 August–4 September

2009

For more information please contact:Maryam Golnaraghi, Ph.D.Chief of Disaster Risk Reduction ProgrammeWorld Meteorological OrganizationTel. 41.22.730.8006Fax. 41.22.730.8023Email. [email protected]

http://www.wmo.int/disasters

Thank You