Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of December 11, 2018
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World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates · World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates ... U.S. Rice Supply and Demand December 11, 2018 Item 2017/2018 estimate 2018/2019
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Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency
Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service
Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Report of December 11, 2018
WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides
Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production
Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist
World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)
During the past 9 months, rainfall has averaged approximately 50% of normal in major rice producing areas, leading to a steady reduction in irrigation supplies.
Percent of Normal RainfallMar – Nov, 2018
December 11, 2018
Water storages in the Murray-Darling Basin (NSW, Victoria and Queensland)
MDB Water storage : August 2012 to November 28, 2018
Nov 282017
Nov 282018
Water storage levels in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) decreased during the week ending 29 November 2018 by 136 gigalitres (GL) to 10,537 GL and are at 47 per cent of total capacity. This is 22 percent (5,029 GL) less than at the same time last year.
Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Weekly Water Update
- 22%
December 11, 2018
Surface water trade activity, Southern Murray-Darling BasinNovember 26, 2009 to November 19, 2018
Nov 19, 2017
Nov 19, 2018
The trades shown reflect estimated market activity and do not encompass all register trades. The price line reflects value weighted average prices for the entire southern Murray-Darling Basin. Data shown is current until Thursday 19 November 2018. The data source has changed for this output. Data is now sourced from the BOM water dashboard
Source: Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES) Weekly Water Update
Nov 26, 2009
Volume weighted average price ($/ML)Volume traded
December 11, 2018
New South Wales
Victoria
New South Wales
Victoria
Australia Rice Irrigated Fields: 2017 vs 2018 2017-11-30 2018-11-30
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
irrigated fields severe reduction in irrigations
December 11, 2018
147
46
66
51
102
20
27
19
76
103
114
7570
27
82
6055
15
8.45
9.52
8.36
6.67
9.81
8.20
9.008.71
10.37
9.53
8.92
10.18
10.92
9.8610.15
9.84
10.52 10.35 10.20
-1.00
1.00
3.00
5.00
7.00
9.00
11.00
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Yiel
d to
ns p
er h
ecta
re
Rice
P,A
'00
0
AS Rice Area
AS Rice Yield
Australia Rice Area and Yield
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division December 11, 2018
South Africa 13.5 12.0 -1.0 -1.5China 259.1 256.0 -- -3.1India 28.7 26.0 -- -2.7
-- No change.
---------------- Million Tons ----------------
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisInternational Production Assessment Division
South Africa Corn Production
Data Sources: 1). Percentage value indicates percent province production of total average production (2011-2015). 2). District corn production from 2007 Census of Commercial Agriculture, Statistics South Africa.
Major Production Region (along Northwest/Free State border)
December 11, 2018
Average
2017/18
2018/19
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2018
Average
2017/18
2018/19
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisInternational Production Assessment Division
Optimal Maize Planting Window
Data Source: Optimal Maize Planting Window; https://twitter.com/WandileSihlobo/status/940142945075912705
a – Cearab – Rio Grande do Nortec – Paraibad – Pernambucoe – Alagoasf – Sergipeh – Espirito Santoi – Rio de Janeiro
abc
de
f
h
i
Para
Amazonas
Rondonia
Roraima
Amapa
Acre
HarvestingJAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JULAUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
Soybean crop calendar for most of BrazilPlanting
FillFlower
Source: IBGE Brazil
* State-Level Production(as % of total)
Mato GrossoParanaRio Grande do SulGoiasMato Grosso do SulMinas GeraisBahiaSao PauloMaranhaoSanta CatarinaTocantinsOther
301914117442222
~3
* 2009 to 2013 Average Cr: Subtropical Rain
Aw: Tropical wet and dry
~40%
~60%
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
1,92
01,
159
658
1,24
01,
100
118
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,00019
77/7
819
78/7
919
79/8
019
80/8
119
81/8
219
82/8
319
83/8
419
84/8
519
85/8
619
86/8
719
87/8
819
88/8
919
89/9
019
90/9
119
91/9
219
92/9
319
93/9
419
94/9
519
95/9
619
96/9
719
97/9
819
98/9
919
99/0
020
00/0
120
01/0
220
02/0
320
03/0
420
04/0
520
05/0
620
06/0
720
07/0
820
08/0
920
09/1
020
10/1
120
11/1
220
12/1
320
13/1
420
14/1
520
15/1
620
16/1
720
17/1
8*2
018/
19
Thou
sand
Hec
tare
sBrazil: Annual Area Changes for Soybeans and Corn
Soybeans
Corn (1st crop)
Sources: CONAB, *USDA Forecast
December 11, 2018
ReducedData Sample
Southeast, 20% of Mato Grosso Production (IMEA)
Northeast, 16% of Mato Grosso Production (IMEA)
Cumulative Rainfall in eastern Mato GrossoOct 1 to Dec 31
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Soybean Production 2014-16 average (tons)
MODIS NDVI (8-day) AnomalyNov 25-Dec 2 2018
Source: World Meteorological OrganizationSource: MODIS NDVI 8-day & SPAM-IIASA 2005 Soybean Mask,NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD
MODIS 8-day NDVI and Rainfall for Soybean Areas of BrazilEastern Mato Grosso (37% of Mato Grosso’s soybean production)
• Cumulative rainfall is above normal since early November, and has surpassed 2017/18 season. Planting rate was similar to rest of the state in the southeast and slower in the northeast.
• NDVI indicates that since the start of the season crop is developing ahead of last year and ahead of average.
December 11, 2018
Rio Grande do Sul, 14% of Brazil Soybean Production
Cumulative Rainfall in Rio Grande do SulOct 1 to Dec 31
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Soybean Production 2014-16 average (tons)
Rio Grande do Sul (14% of Brazil soybean production)• Cumulative rainfall is above normal since early November, and has
surpassed 2017/18 season.• Planting rate was similar to rest of the state in the southeast and
slower in the northeast.• NDVI indicates that since the start of the season crop is developing
ahead of last year and ahead of average.
MODIS NDVI (8-day) AnomalyNov 25-Dec 2 2018
Source: World Meteorological Organization
Source: MODIS NDVI 8-day & SPAM-IIASA 2005 Soybean Mask,NASA/GSFC/GIMMS, USDA/FAS/IPAD
MODIS 8-day NDVI and Rainfall for Soybean Areas of Brazil
December 11, 2018
2.66
2.94
3.11
2.66
2.96 2.883.03
2.90
3.38 3.423.37
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.60
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.40
3.60
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19F
Met
ric To
n/H
ecta
re
Thou
sand
Hec
tare
s or M
etric
Tons
Brazil Soybeans
Area Production Yield Source: USDA FAS PSD
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Record production forecast for 2018/19 due to higher yield
AREA 36.2 mha (RECORD)YIELD 3.37 mt/ha PROD 122.0 mmt (RECORD)
December 11, 2018
Agricultural Weather AssessmentsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board December 11, 2018
~ 10 Days
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
v
Source: Safras e MercadoCrop Signal Data Mgmt and Modeling by GDA Corp
Cropsignal chart planting and harvest by area rather than %
Equivalent production end Jan, end Feb, end Mar
Brazil Soybeans – 2016/17-2018/19 Planting (Percent Completed)Pe
rcen
t Pla
nted
December 11, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
0.02.4
3.76.1
11.6
22.0
30.5
0.0 0.0 1.0
4.1
7.3
15.9
22.9
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Jan 04 Jan 11 Jan 18 Jan 25 Feb 01 Feb 08 Feb 15
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
2019 Projected Output based on harvest rate in 2017 (analog year for planting rate)
2019 Projected Output based on 5-year average (2014-2018) harvest rate
Brazil SoybeansProjected 2019 Weekly Harvest Output (Jan to mid-Feb)
Source: USDA FAS, Historical Harvest Progress Data by Safras e Mercado, Data Mgmt by GDA Corp
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Brazil: Cotton Production
December 11, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Cotton Planting Start Dates (2018)
Nov 20Dec 1
Dec 1
Nov 10 – Jan 20*
*Start date varies
by location
Nov 20
Oct 10
Nov 1Source: CONAB
Crop Signal Data Mgmt and Modeling by GDA Corp
December 11, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
16261708 1711
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1992
/93
1993
/94
1994
/95
1995
/96
1996
/97
1997
/98
1998
/99
1999
/00
2000
/01
2001
/02
2002
/03
2003
/04
2004
/05
2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19F
Kilo
gram
/hec
tare
Thou
sand
Hec
tare
sBrazil Cotton Area and Yield
Mato Grosso Area (CONAB) Bahia Area (CONAB)
Brazil Area (USD PSD) Brazil Yield (USDA PSD)Sources: USDA FAS PSD, CONAB (State Area Estimates),
Mato Grosso and Bahia produce nearly 88 percent of Brazil Cotton. Mato Grosso is expected to surpass last year’s record, rising for the 4th consecutive year. Bahia is forecast to have the highest area in 6 years. Brazil Cotton Area is forecast at 1.4 million hectares, the highest in 8 years; yield is forecast at 1711 kg/ha, above the record high set last year.