Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency Economic Research Service Foreign Agricultural Service Farm Service Agency Agricultural Marketing Service World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report of July 12, 2018
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Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee ForecastsWorld Agricultural Outlook Board, Chairing Agency
Economic Research ServiceForeign Agricultural Service
Farm Service AgencyAgricultural Marketing Service
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Report of July 12, 2018
WASDE: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
Secretary's WASDE Briefing Slides
Foreign Ag Service: World Agricultural Production
Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin
Links to the latest WASDE related publicationsOffice of the Chief Economist
World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB)
US Drought Monitor ( in cooperation with NOAA and NDMC)
Consistent with established practices, today’s World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report only considers those trade actions which are in place or have had formal announcement of effective dates as of the time of publication.
Further, unless a formal end date is specified, this report also assumes such actions are in place throughout the time period covered by these forecasts.
World Wheat Production
July 12, 2018
2017/2018 2018/2019
Country or Region EstimateChange from
June 12 ForecastChange from
June 12Change from2017/2018
---------------- Million Tons ----------------World 757.9 -0.3 736.3 -8.4 -21.7United States 47.4 -- 51.2 1.5 3.8
Below-normal rainfall during May hampered wheat planting & early development, with exceptionally dry weather noted in the northeast.
July 12, 2018
Percent of Normal RainfallJune 2018
More abundant rainfall occurred during June, but rainfall was still near to below normal in most growing areas.
July 12, 2018
Total RainfallJuly 1 – 9, 2018
…and the rain carried over into early July, helping to stabilize (east) or improve (west) early-season wheat prospects.
July 12, 2018
13569
21420 21834
27410
29905
22856
2530323743
22275
31819
2130022000
1.08
1.58 1.57
2.032.15
1.76
2.011.92 1.97
2.61
1.741.83
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
Yiel
d to
ns p
er h
ecta
re
Whe
at P
rod'
000
Tons
AS Wheat Prod AS Wheat Yield
Australia Wheat Production and Yield
July 12, 2018Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
July 12, 2018
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
July 12, 2018
Dryness and drought have been prevalent in many key primary winter wheat areassince the middle of spring; 90-day rainfall has tallied a meager 10 to 25 percent of
normal in parts of southern Russia.Winter Wheat
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
June, 2018
July 12, 2018
Furthermore, pronounced warmth has accelerated wheat development following a cold start to the
spring, particularly in southwest Russia.
Winter Wheat
May - Current
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
July 12, 2018
In early June, the VHI appeared to be overall favorable in major winter
wheat areas.
Winter Wheat
Central
Southern
N. Caucasus
Volga
Russia
Ukraine
July 12, 2018
A month later (July 10), the impacts of heat and dryness are readily apparent
as wheat filled and matured.
Winter Wheat
Urals
Volga
Siberia
Kazakhstan
Russia
July 12, 2018
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
Apr 2
1
Apr 2
8
May
5
May
12
May
19
May
26
June
2
June
9
June
16
June
23
1,00
0 he
ctar
esRussia: Spring Wheat Sowing Progress
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
As of June 22, wheat had been planted on 12.2 mha compared to
13.1 mha by the same date last year.
July 12, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
VHI in primary spring wheat areas is currently good to excellent, though
western wheat areas have experienced heat and dryness. Early spring wheat yield
prospects are very good.
July 12, 2018
Spring Wheat
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yiel
d (T
/Ha)
Area
(MH
a) a
nd P
rodu
ctio
n (M
MT)
Russia Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production
The forecast production is decreased from 68.5 to 67.0 mmt based mainly on drought
in the Southern and Volga Districts.
July 12, 2018
Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Yiel
d (T
/Ha)
Area
(MHa
) and
Pro
duct
ion
(MM
T)Ukraine Wheat: Estimated Area, Yield, and Production
Harvested area Output YieldSource: USDA PSD Online
Forecast production is decreased from 26.5 to 25.5 mmt. The estimated yield is down
4% from last month, down 6% from last year, and 2% below the 5-year average.
July 12, 2018Foreign Agricultural ServiceOffice of Global AnalysisIPA Division
July 12, 2018
July 12, 2018
Dryness and drought have been especially pervasive over the past 60 days across north-central Europe’s
major wheat and rapeseed areas.
Crop Travel: Northern France June 18, 2018
July 12, 2018
Europe: MODIS NDVI 8-Day Satellite Vegetation AnomalyComposite: June 26 - July 3, 2018 (Comparison to Average)
Dryness apparent over northern-tier countries
North Sea
July 12, 2018
EU Wheat Production: 145.0 mmtChange from June: -4.4 mmt
Wheat changes in Europe centered around dryness in the Baltic Sea basin. Meanwhile the crop in Spain improved after frequent and above-average rainfall.
UkraineProtracted dryness has hit Ukraine sunflower areas as well
as Russia’s primary corn and sunflower regions.The driest conditions over the past 90 days (since mid-April) are in southeastern Ukraine and Russia’s Southern District.
July 12, 2018
Starting June 20, daytime highs topped 35°C (95°F) on 13 out of 14 days in Stavropol, with
a peak of 39.6°C (103°F) occurring during early tassel. The heat wave ended July 4,
though readings rebounded Monday. Reproductive corn has been subjected to 6
days well above 35°C
Corn
July 12, 2018
Corn
Planting Tassel/Silk Filling
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Russ
ia a
rea
(1,0
00 h
ecta
res)
Dist
rict a
rea
(1,0
00 h
ecta
res)
Russia Corn: Estimated Planted Area by District
Russia Central Southern North Caucasus Volga
Source: Ministry of Agriculture
Final planted area is estimated by FAS at 2.7 million hectares.