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Climate Services in the Philippines WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) (Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011) VB MALANO
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WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast

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Page 1: WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN … · WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V (SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC) ... Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast

Climate Services in the Philippines

WMO REGIONAL SEMINAR ON CLIMATE SERVICES IN REGIONAL ASSOCIATION V

(SOUTH-WEST PACIFIC)(Honiara, Solomon Islands, 1-4 November 2011)

VB MALANO

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Presentation Outline

1. Climate of the Philippines2. PAGASA Climate Services3. Climate Research Activities4. Use of Regional/Global Products

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� Philippine Geography and Topography

� Principal Air Streams

� Semi-permanent cyclones and anti-cyclones

� Ocean currents

The climate of the Philippines is influenced by the complex interactions of the various factors such as :

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Topographic map of thePhilippines

Height scale are in meters

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� Two seasons – Wet and Dry season

� Mean Annual Temperature – 26.6o C

- coolest month is in January (mean 25.5oC)

- warmest month is in May (mean 28.3oC)

� Mean Annual Rainfall range – 965 to 4064 mm

� Relative Humidity range – 71 % to 85 %

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January

July

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Winds and Seasonal Rainfall are Closely LinkedRelated to the large scale monsoons andlocal air-land interactions

JJA

DJF

B.Lyon

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Philippine Climate Type

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Climate Type I

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Climate Type II

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Climate Type III

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Climate Type IV

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Average tropical

cyclone tracks

for 1st Qtr

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Average tropical

cyclone tracks

2nd Qtr

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Average Tropical

Cyclone Tracks

for 3rd Qtr.

This period is the peak of the SW monsoon. Strong SW influence T.C. movement to the North West or over the Northern/ Extreme Northern Luzon.

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Average Tropical

Cyclone Tracks

for 4th Qtr.The period covers the first half of the NE monsoon season. Tracks of tropical cyclone during this period are likely across central and southern parts of Luzon, and Visayaswith secondary tracks over Northern Mindanao.

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Annual frequency of T.C. entering the PAR and crossing

the Philippines (1948-2006)

Total = 1148, Mean = 19 to 20 , Std. Dev. = 4, Max = 32 , Min = 11528 T.C. or 46% crossed /land fall in the CountryAverage crossing = 9 T.C.

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06

Not Crossing the Philippines

Land falling/Crossing the Philippines

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PAGASA Climate Services

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6. Farm Weather Forecast and Advisories5. Agri Weather Services

4. ENSO Advisory

8. Press releases

3. Climate Impact Assessment for Agriculture

1. Seasonal Climate Outlook2. Monthly weather review and outlook

7. Angat Dam monthly/seasonal forecast inflow

PAGASA Climate Services

9. Latest rainfall forecast

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1. Agriculture Sector2. Water Sector3. Power Sector4. Local Government Unit5. Transport Sector6. Trade and Industry7. Others

Climate Information Users(Demand for Climate Services is increasing)

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Angat Multi-purpose Dam

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November 2011November 2011November 2011November 2011

Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal

Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)

(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011

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December 2011December 2011December 2011December 2011

Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal

Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)

(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011

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January 2012January 2012January 2012January 2012

Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal

Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)

(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011

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February 2012February 2012February 2012February 2012

Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal

Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)

(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011

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March 2012March 2012March 2012March 2012

Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm)Forecast (mm) % Normal% Normal% Normal% Normal

Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)Normal (mm)

(1971(1971(1971(1971----2000)2000)2000)2000)

Monthly Rainfall ForecastUpdated: Oct. 7,2011

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PROVINCE %N_NOV %N_DEC %N_JAN %N_FEB %N_MAR

CORDILLERA ADMINISTRATIVE REGION (CAR)

ABRA 136.2 180.3 126.1 209.6 324.6

BENGUET 114.2 160.9 143.8 163.9 177.8

IFUGAO 122.4 155.6 135.5 151.0 183.1

KALINGA 125.5 133.1 121.5 131.2 115.2

APAYAO 138.7 163.4 106.0 243.5 235.5

MOUNTAIN PROVINCE 126.5 159.7 135.0 159.9 215.3

REGION I

ILOCOS NORTE 144.8 201.4 89.3 361.3 354.5

ILOCOS SUR 129.1 182.0 139.1 173.1 326.8

LA UNION 115.3 170.3 140.2 181.1 211.4

PANGASINAN 115.1 175.1 127.7 207.9 156.0

REGION II

BATANES 125.5 125.3 88.5 128.0 109.3

CAGAYAN 133.0 128.1 115.7 146.7 119.1

ISABELA 125.5 133.1 121.5 131.2 115.2

NUEVA VIZCAYA 117.1 154.1 134.7 140.7 141.3

QUIRINO 118.1 147.8 120.8 125.7 126.6

REGION III (CENTRAL LUZON)

BATAAN 120.5 158.4 119.3 163.6 125.2

BULACAN 120.6 137.4 125.1 138.0 120.5

NUEVA ECIJA 122.3 152.4 147.8 140.7 124.8

PAMPANGA 120.6 157.2 130.4 158.0 123.7

TARLAC 118.8 170.9 137.1 175.1 125.6

ZAMBALES 115.7 188.8 123.1 183.6 131.2

AURORA 118.1 144.8 117.2 115.2 113.2

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION

METRO MANILA 116.8 127.6 106.4 147.5 122.0

REGION IV-A (CALABARZON)

BATANGAS 117.2 136.6 125.0 139.6 114.1

CAVITE 117.7 137.5 123.1 152.0 119.9

LAGUNA 108.7 126.1 113.6 133.2 115.1

RIZAL 115.4 124.8 111.3 131.1 116.4

QUEZON 110.7 123.6 108.6 121.2 113.8

REGION IV-B (MIMAROPA)

MARINDUQUE 115.4 125.4 108.1 129.1 113.2

OCCIDENTAL MINDORO 138.3 134.3 119.4 151.3 120.4

ORIENTAL MINDORO 131.7 131.8 116.9 142.9 114.6

ROMBLON 126.9 125.6 122.4 153.8 121.5

PALAWAN 130.9 147.1 133.1 149.6 175.9

REGION V (BICOL)

ALBAY 108.7 114.6 111.7 126.8 113.6

CAMARINES NORTE 112.9 125.1 113.0 123.2 120.4

CAMARINES SUR 111.4 122.8 114.8 127.9 118.6

CATANDUANES 106.0 129.8 120.7 130.3 118.4

MASBATE 114.4 113.2 119.4 125.6 116.1

SORSOGON 107.0 111.1 113.4 123.8 112.0

P R O V IN C E % N _ N O V % N _ D EC % N _ J A N % N _ F EB % N _ M A R

R EG IO N V I ( W ES T ER N V IS A Y A S )

A K L A N 1 3 1 .2 1 2 3 .0 1 2 7 .3 1 9 6 .8 1 4 2 .3

A N T IQ U E 1 2 8 .4 1 2 1 .2 1 3 2 .8 2 2 5 .2 1 2 9 .0

C A P IZ 1 2 9 .7 1 2 1 .5 1 2 4 .2 1 6 4 .6 1 4 9 .7

G U IM A R A S 1 2 3 .4 1 2 0 .2 1 2 6 .8 1 3 9 .9 1 1 4 .7

IL O IL O 1 2 6 .6 1 2 0 .2 1 2 6 .4 1 5 9 .9 1 3 1 .0

N EG R O S O C C ID EN T A L 1 2 4 .3 1 2 1 .3 1 2 2 .3 1 3 0 .9 1 2 6 .6

R EG IO N V I I ( C EN T R A L V IS A Y A S )

B O H O L 1 2 2 .4 1 1 4 .6 1 1 1 .5 9 7 .5 1 1 5 .2

C EB U 1 2 6 .3 1 1 7 .2 1 1 5 .8 1 0 2 .4 1 2 2 .1

N EG R O S O R IEN T A L 1 1 9 .5 1 2 6 .7 1 2 0 .5 1 2 7 .6 1 2 9 .6

S IQ U IJ O R 1 1 4 .1 1 2 7 .0 1 1 4 .9 1 0 5 .9 1 1 9 .1

R EG IO N V I I I ( EA S T ER N V IS A Y A S )

B IL IR A N 1 1 2 .7 1 1 6 .8 1 1 3 .7 1 2 5 .1 1 1 7 .5

EA S T ER N S A M A R 1 0 2 .6 1 1 7 .1 1 0 9 .8 1 2 1 .9 1 1 0 .0

L EY T E 1 1 2 .6 1 1 3 .3 1 1 1 .3 1 1 4 .2 1 1 1 .4

N O R T H ER N S A M A R 1 0 3 .5 1 1 3 .1 1 1 2 .5 1 2 2 .7 1 1 7 .6

S A M A R ( W ES T ER N S A M A R ) 1 0 6 .0 1 1 8 .3 1 1 1 .5 1 2 6 .2 1 1 5 .1

S O U T H ER N L EY T E 1 1 1 .0 1 1 3 .7 1 1 0 .8 1 0 3 .4 1 0 4 .2

R EG IO N IX ( Z A M B O A N G A P EN IN S U L A )

Z A M B O A N G A D EL N O R T E 1 0 6 .9 1 3 2 .8 1 2 2 .9 1 6 1 .0 1 9 5 .4

Z A M B O A N G A D EL S U R 1 0 4 .8 1 3 4 .4 1 2 3 .8 1 5 1 .3 1 9 9 .7

Z A M B O A N G A S IB U G A Y

R EG IO N X ( N O R T H ER N M IN D A N A O )

B U K ID N O N 1 0 8 .1 9 9 .7 9 8 .1 9 5 .9 9 7 .4

C A M IG U IN 1 1 2 .3 1 0 7 .3 1 0 4 .5 9 7 .0 1 0 4 .6

L A N A O D EL N O R T E 9 9 .7 1 2 8 .0 1 1 8 .1 1 0 8 .6 1 1 0 .5

M IS A M IS O C C ID EN T A L 1 0 1 .3 1 3 1 .5 1 1 8 .6 1 1 5 .3 1 1 8 .8

M IS A M IS O R IEN T A L 1 0 9 .2 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .6 9 6 .4 9 9 .9

R EG IO N X I ( D A V A O R EG IO N )

C A M P O S T EL A V A L L EY

D A V A O 1 0 5 .3 1 1 3 .2 1 0 4 .2 1 0 3 .5 1 0 9 .4

D A V A O D EL S U R 1 1 1 .7 1 2 6 .2 1 1 3 .5 1 0 9 .9 1 1 2 .1

D A V A O O R IEN T A L 1 0 5 .7 1 1 8 .9 1 0 7 .8 1 0 4 .0 1 0 4 .5

R EG IO N X II ( S O C C S K S A R G EN )

S O U T H C O T A B A T O 1 1 3 .7 1 3 5 .8 1 2 2 .9 1 1 8 .3 1 2 5 .0

C O T A B A T O 1 0 1 .1 1 3 0 .5 1 1 9 .8 1 0 3 .5 9 9 .6

S A R A N G A N I 1 1 8 .7 1 3 2 .4 1 1 9 .0 1 1 9 .4 1 2 8 .0

S U L T A N K U D A R A T 1 0 5 .4 1 4 1 .0 1 2 8 .0 1 1 7 .6 1 2 6 .2

R EG IO N X II I - C A R A G A

A G U S A N D EL N O R T E 1 0 7 .1 1 0 2 .5 1 0 1 .7 9 6 .1 9 7 .7

A G U S A N D EL S U R 1 0 6 .6 9 9 .9 9 9 .2 9 6 .8 1 0 0 .9

S U R IG A O D EL N O R T E 1 0 4 .1 1 1 1 .7 1 0 8 .4 9 9 .8 9 6 .4

S U R IG A O D EL S U R 1 0 3 .3 1 0 5 .9 1 0 4 .7 9 8 .2 9 9 .2

A R M M

B A S IL A N 1 1 7 .0 1 2 8 .0 1 2 0 .9 1 8 9 .1 3 3 5 .6

M A G U IN D A N A O 9 8 .8 1 4 3 .6 1 3 0 .7 1 1 0 .2 1 0 9 .9

L A N A O D EL S U R 9 8 .7 1 2 6 .5 1 1 8 .0 1 0 2 .4 9 9 .3

S U L U 1 1 7 .2 1 3 9 .4 1 2 2 .3 1 5 8 .6 3 4 8 .0

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in Percent of Normal ( NOV 2011 - MAR 2012)

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P R O V IN C E N O V D EC J A N F EB M A R

C O R D IL L ER A A D M IN IS T R A T IV E R EG IO N ( C A R )

A B R A 1 3 8 .0 6 3 .7 2 1 .7 1 6 .7 2 5 .8

B EN G U ET 1 5 3 .5 6 3 .3 2 6 .9 2 7 .0 5 1 .2

IF U G A O 2 6 9 .9 1 7 9 .3 6 7 .7 5 7 .6 7 7 .2

K A L IN G A 4 9 8 .9 4 1 3 .9 1 6 2 .3 1 2 1 .4 1 2 7 .3

A P A Y A O 2 4 0 .2 1 0 8 .7 4 9 .0 2 7 .4 2 4 .5

M O U N T A IN P R O V IN C E 2 3 2 .6 1 3 8 .6 4 7 .2 4 0 .0 5 6 .0

R EG IO N I

IL O C O S N O R T E 9 6 .4 3 2 .1 1 6 .8 1 2 .1 1 4 .2

IL O C O S S U R 9 1 .1 2 8 .6 1 0 .2 1 1 .2 2 6 .6

L A U N IO N 8 6 .3 9 .8 5 .0 9 .7 3 1 .1

P A N G A S IN A N 6 9 .1 2 6 .9 1 0 .6 1 3 .0 2 4 .0

R EG IO N I I

B A T A N ES 3 3 4 .8 2 3 3 .6 1 6 1 .5 1 0 9 .4 7 7 .7

C A G A Y A N 4 0 1 .1 2 3 2 .6 9 9 .7 5 9 .3 4 9 .7

IS A B EL A 4 9 8 .9 4 1 3 .9 1 6 2 .3 1 2 1 .4 1 2 7 .3

N U EV A V IZ C A Y A 2 9 3 .4 2 1 2 .4 9 1 .4 8 0 .5 1 0 6 .2

Q U IR IN O 4 5 6 .5 3 9 9 .4 1 7 1 .9 1 4 1 .3 1 6 3 .7

R EG IO N I I I ( C EN T R A L L U Z O N )

B A T A A N 7 0 .4 4 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .2

B U L A C A N 2 5 3 .2 2 2 7 .6 9 0 .7 6 0 .0 5 6 .4

N U EV A EC IJ A 2 1 3 .5 1 5 0 .1 6 1 .0 5 1 .5 6 5 .5

P A M P A N G A 1 1 1 .0 5 0 .5 9 .4 7 .2 1 2 .7

T A R L A C 9 0 .9 2 9 .2 3 .3 7 .3 1 6 .9

Z A M B A L ES 5 9 .8 8 .5 0 .2 2 .3 9 .6

A U R O R A 5 0 5 .9 4 7 7 .5 2 1 1 .4 1 6 6 .9 1 8 3 .7

N A T IO N A L C A P IT A L R EG IO N

M ET R O M A N IL A 2 1 3 .3 1 7 5 .6 5 5 .9 3 5 .8 3 4 .1

R EG IO N IV - A ( C A L A B A R Z O N )

B A T A N G A S 2 4 3 .0 1 9 9 .4 5 1 .4 3 6 .1 4 4 .9

C A V IT E 1 3 8 .7 8 0 .7 9 .4 4 .5 1 2 .2

L A G U N A 4 0 5 .6 4 0 1 .9 1 3 1 .4 9 3 .2 8 7 .7

R IZ A L 3 8 3 .0 4 0 0 .2 1 6 3 .0 1 0 4 .2 8 8 .5

Q U EZ O N 5 6 6 .6 6 3 5 .3 2 4 7 .5 1 7 0 .4 1 4 8 .9

R EG IO N IV - B ( M IM A R O P A )

M A R IN D U Q U E 4 4 8 .7 4 6 4 .8 1 6 7 .9 1 2 1 .7 1 0 6 .9

O C C ID EN T A L M IN D O R O 2 2 8 .2 1 7 5 .2 6 1 .7 3 9 .5 4 2 .8

O R IEN T A L M IN D O R O 2 8 7 .3 2 4 9 .7 9 3 .0 6 1 .8 6 2 .1

R O M B L O N 2 9 8 .1 2 5 6 .4 1 1 6 .8 7 7 .1 6 3 .0

P A L A W A N 1 9 4 .2 1 5 6 .4 1 6 .3 1 5 .5 4 3 .2

R EG IO N V ( B IC O L )

A L B A Y 5 0 2 .2 6 0 3 .2 3 1 5 .7 2 2 9 .2 1 8 4 .8

C A M A R IN ES N O R T E 6 2 1 .8 7 7 5 .0 3 0 5 .0 2 0 3 .1 1 8 0 .8

C A M A R IN ES S U R 5 4 8 .1 6 8 0 .9 2 9 6 .1 2 0 1 .7 1 7 3 .9

C A T A N D U A N ES 5 2 6 .8 6 5 7 .2 3 0 0 .2 1 8 4 .9 1 7 2 .2

M A S B A T E 3 1 5 .6 3 2 4 .7 2 0 7 .3 1 3 3 .9 1 0 9 .3

S O R S O G O N 4 6 2 .7 5 4 0 .9 3 3 6 .7 2 3 4 .1 1 8 8 .1

P R O V IN C E N O V D EC J A N F EB M A R

R EG IO N V I ( W ES T ER N V IS A Y A S )

A K L A N 2 8 3 .0 1 8 3 .9 8 0 .8 5 4 .5 6 5 .5

A N T IQ U E 2 3 9 .0 1 3 8 .1 5 4 .7 3 8 .4 4 9 .7

C A P IZ 2 9 1 .4 1 8 5 .2 8 8 .9 6 0 .9 7 7 .6

G U IM A R A S 2 0 4 .1 1 1 7 .8 4 9 .0 3 6 .9 4 4 .2

IL O IL O 2 4 6 .9 1 5 0 .5 6 8 .6 4 9 .1 6 0 .7

N EG R O S O C C ID EN T A L 2 0 0 .8 1 2 7 .3 6 7 .4 4 5 .8 5 1 .1

R EG IO N V II ( C EN T R A L V IS A Y A S )

B O H O L 2 4 6 .7 2 3 3 .4 2 1 5 .6 1 3 9 .6 1 1 0 .5

C EB U 2 0 8 .7 1 6 2 .6 1 2 2 .1 7 9 .3 7 1 .6

N EG R O S O R IEN T A L 1 8 5 .6 1 3 1 .3 7 5 .9 4 9 .7 4 9 .1

S IQ U IJ O R 2 2 3 .2 1 8 8 .7 1 3 1 .7 8 2 .8 6 9 .2

R EG IO N V II I ( EA S T ER N V IS A Y A S )

B IL IR A N 3 1 7 .1 3 3 0 .2 2 3 9 .4 1 8 9 .3 1 4 9 .5

EA S T ER N S A M A R 4 2 7 .4 5 3 1 .1 4 3 4 .5 3 2 7 .2 2 5 0 .4

L EY T E 3 0 7 .9 3 5 7 .6 3 0 0 .8 2 2 9 .4 1 7 0 .8

N O R T H ER N S A M A R 5 0 3 .7 5 8 0 .1 4 5 1 .0 3 1 1 .2 2 5 3 .5

S A M A R ( W ES T ER N S A M A R ) 4 0 3 .0 4 6 0 .1 3 4 9 .8 2 6 9 .2 2 1 0 .6

S O U T H ER N L EY T E 3 6 2 .7 4 4 7 .9 4 4 6 .8 3 0 8 .8 2 2 4 .7

R EG IO N IX ( Z A M B O A N G A P EN IN S U L A )

Z A M B O A N G A D EL N O R T E 2 8 2 .2 2 1 1 .9 1 0 6 .6 9 3 .9 1 0 2 .2

Z A M B O A N G A D EL S U R 2 6 2 .0 1 9 2 .4 1 0 3 .6 9 7 .0 1 1 2 .5

Z A M B O A N G A S IB U G A Y

R EG IO N X ( N O R T H ER N M IN D A N A O )

B U K ID N O N 2 2 0 .8 1 7 3 .3 1 7 2 .1 1 2 9 .0 1 2 9 .8

C A M IG U IN 3 1 5 .5 3 3 2 .5 3 3 8 .8 2 2 5 .4 1 7 9 .0

L A N A O D EL N O R T E 2 7 8 .3 2 1 2 .5 1 3 9 .6 1 0 0 .4 1 0 5 .2

M IS A M IS O C C ID EN T A L 3 2 9 .7 2 6 6 .4 1 5 5 .0 1 0 4 .9 9 6 .8

M IS A M IS O R IEN T A L 2 9 3 .3 2 8 1 .0 2 8 1 .2 1 9 2 .4 1 6 6 .5

R EG IO N X I ( D A V A O R EG IO N )

C A M P O S T EL A V A L L EY

D A V A O 2 0 3 .9 2 2 4 .5 2 7 3 .9 1 9 5 .8 1 8 5 .7

D A V A O D EL S U R 1 2 7 .5 1 0 7 .7 1 0 6 .4 8 8 .6 8 1 .7

D A V A O O R IEN T A L 2 1 6 .0 2 8 4 .1 3 6 5 .9 2 5 2 .8 2 2 6 .4

R EG IO N X II ( S O C C S K S A R G EN )

S O U T H C O T A B A T O 1 1 5 .9 8 3 .5 6 5 .3 6 3 .4 6 0 .4

C O T A B A T O 1 6 9 .6 1 1 5 .2 9 1 .3 7 5 .3 8 9 .4

S A R A N G A N I 1 0 2 .6 8 8 .7 8 5 .6 7 7 .2 6 3 .2

S U L T A N K U D A R A T 1 4 0 .7 9 3 .0 6 6 .4 6 3 .9 7 5 .9

R EG IO N X II I - C A R A G A

A G U S A N D EL N O R T E 3 7 4 .9 4 6 3 .1 5 4 0 .9 3 6 0 .5 2 9 3 .9

A G U S A N D EL S U R 3 2 0 .9 3 9 4 .6 4 9 2 .0 3 3 1 .6 2 9 4 .5

S U R IG A O D EL N O R T E 4 5 8 .2 6 1 0 .9 6 9 2 .0 4 5 9 .7 3 4 7 .6

S U R IG A O D EL S U R 4 0 4 .7 5 6 1 .0 7 0 7 .7 4 6 8 .3 3 9 9 .5

A R M M

B A S IL A N 1 2 7 .4 6 0 .7 2 6 .5 9 0 .7 1 3 5 .6

M A G U IN D A N A O 1 6 4 .6 1 0 9 .2 7 8 .1 6 7 .4 8 6 .4

L A N A O D EL S U R 2 4 0 .8 1 7 3 .5 1 2 3 .8 9 2 .1 1 0 4 .7

S U L U 9 0 .8 2 8 .8 1 .1 4 4 .4 9 3 .4

Forecast Rainfall Analysis in millimeter ( NOV 2011 - MAR 2012)

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Current Research Activities:

PAGASA has collaborative climate research studies with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society.

Published -

Title: Spatio-temporal variability and predictability of summer monsoon onset over the Philippines. Clim Dyn, doi:10.1007/s00382-008-0520-5

Authored by:Moron V, Lucero A, Hilario F, Robertson AW, Lyon B, De Witt D (2009)

Currently on press -

MWR-D-11-00177Monthly Weather Review

Title: Downscaling of Seasonal Rainfall Over the Philippines: Dynamical vs. Statistical Approaches .

Authored by:Andrew Robertson; Jian-Hua Qian; Michael K Tippett; Vincent Moron;

Anthony Lucero

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Use of regional/global Products:

PAGASA uses the following global information forreference and/or input in preparing seasonal climateforecast:

CPC/NCEP -CFS Forecast of Seasonal Climate Anomalies on Sea Surface Temperature

Monsoon MonitoringENSO Diagnostic Discussion

International Research Institute for Climate and SocietyECHAM4.5 – monthly rainfall forecast from IRI data libraryIRI ENSO Update and Forecast

Bureau of Meteorology’sAn All-season Real-time Multivariate MJO Index

Seasonal Outlook

Japan Meteorological Agency’s Climate System MonitoringEl Nino/La Nina MonitoringNWP Model Prediction

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NGO initiated Climate Field Schoolin the Philippines

A replication of the Climate Field School model in the Province of Iloilo.

Two (2) Local Government Unit co-sponsored the CFS –

1. The Municipality of Irosin in the Province of Sorsogon and,

2. The Municipality of Gerona in the Province of Tarlac.

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Irosin, SorsogonGerona, Tarlac

Site location of CFS project

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For more information, VISIT us at

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph

Thank you