WIOD 2010 28.05.2010, Vienna, Austria CO 2 Embodied in International Trade Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005 Martin Bruckner,

WIOD 201028.05.2010, Vienna, Austria

www.seri.atwww.seri.at

CO2 Embodied in International Trade

Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005Evidence for carbon leakage between 1995 and 2005

Martin Bruckner, Stefan Giljum, Christine Polzin (SERI), Christian Lutz, Kirsten Svenja Wiebe (GWS mbH)

2WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Production vs. consumption based

• Model and data

• Results

Outline

3WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Production vs. consumption based

• Model and data

• Results

Outline

4WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Production based (territorial) accounting Advantage: data availability

UNFCCC (e.g. Kyoto Protocol)

• Consumption based accounting Modelling required

Consumer responsibility and climate justice

Consistency of climate policies

Production vs. consumption based

5WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Production vs. consumption based

• Model and data

• Results

Outline

6WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

Model:

• True multi-regional IO-model

• Multi-directional trade

• 40 + 13 countries, 2 regions (OPEC, RoW)

• 48 sectors

Global Resource Accounting Model

7WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

Data:

1. CO2 emissions (IEA)

2. IO tables (OECD)

3. Trade data (OECD)

Global Resource Accounting Model

8WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

1. CO2 emissions (IEA)

• IEA Energy Balances

• Emissions from fuel combustion

• Austria: 80% of GHG emissions

Global Resource Accounting Model

9WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

2. IO tables (OECD)• IO tables for 29 OECD countries and 11 non-OECD countries

• Assumption of equal IO structures for 14 countries (where

bilateral trade data were available)

• OPEC (structure of Indonesia), RoW (structure of Argentina)

• around the years 1995, 2000 and 2005

• Data are interpolated for the years in between

Global Resource Accounting Model

10WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

3. Trade data (OECD)

• STAN Bilateral trade data (BTD)

• Trade shares for 61 trade partners

• 25 commodities + services

Global Resource Accounting Model

11WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Production vs. consumption based

• Model and data

• Results

Outline

12WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Strong carbon leakage Share of increase of emissions in non-Annex-B countries in the

emission reductions in Annex-B countries (IPCC)

• Weak carbon leakage Emission imports from Annex-B to non-Annex-B countries (Peters

and Hertwich 2008)

• Changes over time

Carbon leakage

13WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

• Replacement of industries to countries with less

strict environmental regulations

• Satisfaction of increased demand by countries with

lower production costs

Reasons for carbon leakage

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Carbon leakage

1995 2005 Changes

Carbon leakage (ktonnes) 2,095,569 3,602,590 1,507,021

Share in global CO2 emissions 9.6% 12.8% 24.0%

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Imports and exports

Top 3 Net-Importers and Exporters of carbon emissions

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Consumption based emissions

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Carbon trade balances

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1. Carbon leakage is increasing rapidly

2. Global targets of emission reduction will not be fulfilled without sharing responsibility between producers and consumers.

3. International co-operation will depend on accepting consumer responsibility.

Conclusions and policy recommendations

19WIOD 2010Martin Bruckner

Thank you!

Contact detailse-mail: [email protected]: www.seri.at/GRAM-CO2