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Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus
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Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Dec 31, 2015

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Page 1: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade?

Seppo Suominenlecturer, economicsHH Malmi Campus

Page 2: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Why international business?

to expand sales to acquire resources to diversify sources of sales and supplies to minimize competitive risk

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Page 3: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Why international trade theory?

to understand what products should a company import and export

to understand how much trade is reasonable to understand with whom should a company

trade

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Page 4: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Why countries exchange goods and services? it is useful David Ricardo (1817): comparative advantage Note: at that time, exchange rates were fixed,

i.e. gold standard or silver standard In Finland (in 1809-1917, part of Russia, as

Grand Duchy) during 1865-1877 1 FIM (Finnish markka = ¼ Russian ruble = 4,45 gm of silver = 0,00445 kg

During 1878-1915 1 FIM = 0,290 gm of gold

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Laissez-Faire versus Interventionist Approaches to Exports & Imports Interventionist:

Mercantilism Neomercantilism

Free-trade theories: Absolute advantage Comparative advantage

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Theories of Trade Patterns

Explaining trade patterns: Country size Factor proportions Country similarity

Trade competitiveness: Product life cycle theory Porter diamond

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Mercantilist Theory

Mercantilist theory proposed that a country should try to achieve a favorable balance of trade (export more than it imports)

Neomercantilist policy also seeks a favorable balance of trade, but its purpose is to achieve some social or political objective

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Theory of Absolute Advantage

Suggests specialization through free trade because consumers will be better off if they can buy foreign-made products that are priced more cheaply than domestic ones

A country may produce goods more efficiently because of a natural advantage or because of an acquired advantage

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Theory of Comparative Advantage Also proposes specialization through free trade

because it says that total global output can increase even if one country has an absolute advantage in the production of all products

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Theory Of Country Size

Countries with large land areas are apt to have varied climates and natural resources

They are generally more self-sufficient than smaller countries are

Large countries’ production and market centers are more likely to be located at a greater distance from other countries, raising the transport costs of foreign trade

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Factor-Proportions Theory   

A country’s relative endowments of land, labor, and capital will determine the relative costs of these factors

Factor costs will determine which goods the country can produce most efficiently

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Country-similarity Theory

Most trade today occurs among high-income countries because they share similar market segments and because they produce and consume so much more than emerging economies

Much of the pattern of two-way trading partners may be explained by cultural similarity between the countries, political and economic agreements, and by the distance between them

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

Product Life Cycle (PLC) Theory

Companies will manufacture products first in the countries in which they were researched and developed, almost always developed countries

Over the product’s life cycle, production will shift to foreign locations, especially to developing economies as the product reaches the stages of maturity and decline

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Copyright © 2009 Pearson

Education, Inc.

publishing as Prentice

Hall

The Porter Diamond

Four conditions as important for competitive superiority: demand conditions factor conditions related and supporting industries firm strategy, structure, and rivalry

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http://www.stat.fi/tup/suoluk/suoluk_kansantalous_en.html#Nationalbalance

http://www.tulli.fi/en/03_Foreign_trade_statistics/06_statistics/01_timeseries/index.jsp

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/its2006_e/its06_longterm_e.pdf

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Page 16: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

Trade is important or vital for Finland Export/production = 82,2/179,9 = 45 % Export/supply = export/(production + import) =

33 %

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Page 17: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

There are large changes in export or import numbers

Sometimes + 42%, sometimes – 8 % But on average: + 6 % p.a. while production + 3

%

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Page 21: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

“Newton’s gravity theory”

  trade = C•m1•m2/d2

where C = some constant, parameter, m1 and m2 are “masses” of the trading countries and d is distance between the countries

hence trade is large when a) the countries are close b) the countries are large, big (population, gdp), and c) the standard of living is high (gdp/capita)

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Page 22: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

See: Trade statistics, pocket2007 p. 10-13 and 20-21

http://www.tulli.fi/fi/05_Ulkomaankauppatilastot/05_Tilastokatsaukset/pdf/2008/pocket2007.pdf

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Page 23: Why Germany is no longer #1 in Finnish foreign trade? Seppo Suominen lecturer, economics HH Malmi Campus.

http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2008/01/pdf/text.pdf

Pages 240- http://maps.google.ru/

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