WhatIf? Modelling Tools Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. Simulation modelling.

whatIf? Modelling Tools

Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues.

• Simulation modelling• Case study: Victoria WAS• Scenarios• Discussion

• Questions throughout please!


www.whatiftechnologies.com

What is Simulation Modelling and why use it?

Try something out ahead of time…

• To learn the impact of various actions

• To play out different scenarios

• To gain understanding and insight

…make better plans and decisions.



whatIf? Physical Economy Modelling Approach

• Whole system modelling

• Process as fundamental concept

• Physical substrate

• Behaviour/Control

• Stocks and Flows

• Coherence (user imputed causality)



Model Builder

modelling suite



Model Building Overview

design

model coding

calibration anddata assembly

scenariobuilding

• Interactive process for designing and building models

• Build a customized model specific to analytical needs

• Technology transfer may occur throughout



whatIf? Benefits

• Transparency

• Corporate Memory

• Scenario Management



We have linked physical whole-economy models

• Australian Stocks and Flows Framework (ASFF) all economy energy end-use (residential, industrial…) materials flows

• Victorian Regional Stocks and Flows Framework (VRSFF) demography land-use (~12 types, built and non-built by ~2,600 areas) electricity generation

• Water Accounting System (WAS) water requirements water provision energy for water system



• Demographics

• Land-use

• Electricity production

• Water resources and use a complete

water account

Drivers and Interactions



Water Account System compares ‘demand’ & ‘supply’• ‘Flow’ of physical implications

integrates use and availability inputs taken from ASFF and VRSFF



Geographic Context

• Victoria is in southern Australia• Melbourne is the capital city of ~4

million people• 3 key dams (each >106 Gl)

Dartmouth (NE) Eildon (N) Thomson (SE)

• supplies most of Melbourne

• Murray-Darling Basin and Victoria overlap

Melbourne



Victorian historical data sources• Water

DWRV Water Resource Handbook BRS 1985 Review ABS Water Accounts (1994-97, 2001, 2005) DSE State Water Report 2003 SoE 1988 MDBC reports – flows, dam levels BoM rainfall; Melbourne Water; NLWRA catchment flows Energy intensity of water services; Energy used

• Demography Census 1966-2001; education statistics; health statistics

• Land-use Zoning Plan historical maps of Melbourne Census (2001)

• Energy ESAA generation/production capacity ~ 1995-2004 ABS Energy Accounts 1982-1991 specific energy consumption data 1974-1995 Yallourn & Loy Yang data & Electricity Commission data ~1920-2004



Water Account System - Description•“Design Approach” [Gault et al, Futures, 1987]

“supply v demand” structure traceable physical relationships (coordination)



Water Account System - Requirements

• water requirements by ~14 sectors in 79 Local Government Areas



Water Account System - Availability• water availability

in 29 major river basins across 14 land use types into surface, aquifers, evapo-transpiration



Water Account System - Disposition• water puts and takes

into/from rivers, dams, aquifers centralised or self-extracted desalination option quality: unpolluted, storm-, grey-, black-water treatment to primary, secondary, tertiary levels transfers between the 29 river basins



Water Account System – Dam/River Balance

• water storage stock and river flows all additions and extractions

brought together diversions from river to dam release of storage down river river network included



Water Account System – Energy Required• energy for water services

potable treatment & pumping treatment & pumping for recycling

(sewage, other discharges, stormwater)

local re-use desalination inter-region transfers



Key common assumptions

• population growth 4.9 million by 2050 Victoria in Future

• climate change “medium” scenario = 1.5 C change (rel to 1990) by 2050 CSIRO

• intensity of water use marginal increase response to climate change

• irrigated agriculture, and residential outdoor DSE

• electricity consumption / generation growth at 2% pa per capita unchanged technology



Other key scenario assumptions• water end-use

no change (2a, 2b) solar HWS, efficient shower, wash machine (1a, 1b, 2c, 2d)

• in 80% new dwellings, 20% existing dwellings• water services

conventional catchment (1a, 2a, 2c) desalination (to meet new demand) (2b, 2d) alternative (1b)

• rainwater tanks– in 20% dwellings– 1 kL

• re-use of industrial wastewater– 20% of flow

• re-use of wastewater at central treatment– 20% of flow

WhatIf? Modelling Tools Providing quantitative decision support tools and services to address complex organizational and societal issues. Simulation modelling.

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