What would farmers do

What would farmers do? Adaptive management intentions of Corn Belt farmers given a climate

change scenario

Gabrielle Roesch-McNally, J. Gordon Arbuckle Jr., and John Tyndall

“The vulnerability of agriculture to climate change is strongly dependent not just on ...biophysical effects...,

but also on the responses taken by humans to moderate those effects…”(Walthall et al. 2013, p.13)

This research is part of a regional collaborative project supported by the USDA-NIFA, Award No. 2011-68002-30190:Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project: Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems

Project Web site: sustainablecorn.org

@G_Roesch

Roadmap• Study Details• Context: Climate Change & Agriculture;

Adaptation & Resilience• Analysis• Next Steps

Survey Scope & Scale

Survey details: n = 4,778 (26% response rate) • Survey administered by USDA NASS• Sample stratified by 22 HUC 6 watersheds

~ 60% of U.S. corn production• Larger-scale farmers: $100k+ Gross Revenue,

~ 80% of farmland in Corn Belt

Research Questions– What factors influence farmers’ predicted

adaptive response to climate change?

– What types of practices do farmers anticipate utilizing or increasing?

– Are there differences between farmer characteristics and adaptive response?

Predicted Climate Change Impacts: US Corn Belt

• Potential (short-term) benefits from longer growing season and increased CO2

• More frequent extreme weather events (flooding to drought conditions)

• Changes in hydrology (timing, intensity and erosivity of precipitation events)

• Increased weed, disease and pest pressures

Climate Change Belief“Please select the statement that best reflects your beliefs about climate change”

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by human activities 8%

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused more or less equally by natural changes in the environment and human activities 33%

Climate change is occurring, and it is caused mostly by natural changes in the environment 25%

There is not sufficient evidence to know with certainty whether climate change is occurring or not 31%

Climate change is not occurring 4%

Adaptation on the Farm

“The process or adjustment to actual or expected climate and its effects...Adaptation seeks to moderate or avoid harm or exploit beneficial

opportunities.” (IPCC 2014)

“Farming is weather and weather is farming so, you know…one year is not like the

next…” (MI farmer)

Farmer as Adapter

Adaptation as Sustainability?

Figure:  Jackson et al. 2010, Biodiversity and agricultural sustainability: from assessment to adaptive management

Farmers’ adaptation 

processes are “embedded in 

intertwined social, technical & ecological contexts”

(Crane et al. 2011)

A Resilient Farm“The capacity of... systems to cope with a hazardous event or trend or disturbance,

responding in ways that maintain their essential function, identity, & structure, while also

maintaining the capacity for adaptation, learning & transformation.” (IPCC 2014)

Adoption of key conservation practices one tool in building more resilient agricultural systems.

Managing Production & Environmental Risk

• In field (“Cultural”) Practices– Reduced (no) tillage– Manure, fertilizer management/reduction– Cover crops, – Rotation and or cropping changes– Land retirement  

• Structural Practices– Buffers, prairie strips– Grassed Waterways– Terraces– Restored/ reconstructed wetlands – Denitrification bioreactors– Controlled drainage– Wetland restoration– Tree planting

We examined different actions farmers can take at the field/farm scale: 

The Scenario • Violent storms/extreme rain events will become more frequent,

particularly in the spring.

• More extreme rain events will increase likelihood of flooding & saturated soils.

• Periods between rains will be longer, increasing likelihood of drought.

• Changes in the weather patterns will increase crop insect, weed & disease problems.

The Question If you knew with certainty that the above conditions would occur, would the following practices on the cropland you own and rent decrease, increase, or stay the same?

Behavioral Intentions Under Climate Change Scenario

No‐till

Tile Drainage

Cover Crop

Example Practices

% Decrease 

% Stay the Same

% Increase

% Don't Know

No‐till 2 48 24 13

Cover Crops 1 38 22 25

Subsurface tile or other drainage

1 32 43 11

Adaptation Intentions in Response to Increased Extremes

Conceptual Model of Adaptation: Focus on farm practices

Logistic Regression: Increase vs. Stay the Same

PredictedAdaptiveResponse

Stay the same (ref.)

Increase

Predictor Variables

Norms: Current Practices

Climate Change Belief

Risk Perception: Weather

Risk Management 

Farmer Characteristics

Social Networks

Productivist/Steward Identity

Self‐efficacy

Watershed/State differences

All Dependent Variables Used (22) Parameters significant in some/all models

Current Practices Current Cover Crop Use 0/3(prior knowledge) Current no‐till use  2/3

Current Reduced tillage use  0/3Current diversified rotations use  2/3Current Drainage Water Mgt. use  0/3

Beliefs CCBELIEF 0/3My operation will be harmed by climate change  1/3

Perceived Risks Increased soil erosion concern 2/3Flooding concern  0/3Extreme rains concern  2/3Drought concern 1/3Too much uncertainty  3/3

Risk Management Strategies EdgefieldCons 0/3Infield Cons 1/3Crop Insurance 0/3Diversifying  0/3

Demographics Age  2/3Education level  1/3

Identity F_productivist identity 1/3F_steward identity  1/3

Self‐efficacy Confidence in current practices  3/3I have knowledge and skills to deal with climate change  1/3

Networks Visit other farmers   3/3

What the probability of increasing use of cover crops? (All significant @ p ≤ 0.05)

• using no-till• using diversified rotations• perceived risk of soil erosion & extreme rains• using infield conservation as a risk mgmt. strategy• more educated farmers• those with a stewardship identity• those whose networks of other farmers are

important • younger farmers• less uncertainty about climate change impacts • less of a sense of self-efficacy

Preliminary findings…

=  pi/(1‐pi) = eb0 + b1x1i+… bkXkiFarmer

increasing use of Cover crops

Model fit: • Nagelkerke pR2 = 0.19• Hosmer ‐ Lemshow GFI = 3.01 (NS)

What the probability of increasing the use of no-till? (All significant @ p ≤ 0.05)

• farmer currently uses no-till• farmer believes that climate change might harm

their operation• certainty concerning climate change risks• farmer is concerned about increased soil erosion

risk• farmers who value networks with other farmers• less confidence in current practices

Preliminary findings…

=  pi/(1‐pi) = eb0 + b1x1i+… bkXkiFarmer increasing

use of no-till

Model fit: • Nagelkerke pR2 = 0.08• Hosmer ‐ Lemshow GFI = 6.5 (NS)

What the probability of increasing use of tile drainage? (All significant @ p ≤ 0.05)

• farmer is concerned about flooding risk• farmer is concerned about extreme rain risks• farmer is uncertain about impacts of climate

change• farmer who values networks with other farmers• not as concerned about drought risk• younger farmers• less confidence in current practices• if farmer is not sure that they currently have the

knowledge and skills to deal with climate change risks

Preliminary findings…

=  pi/(1‐pi) = eb0 + b1x1i+… bkXkiFarmer increasing use of tile drainage

Model fit: • Nagelkerke pR2 = 0.1• Hosmer ‐ Lemshow GFI = 9.1 (NS)

• Further analysis might lead to SEM or other regression model(s)

• Multi-level model (structural components) “agency” within larger agricultural system in the Corn Belt

• In-depth interviews (n=159): deepen and explore adaptation and climate change belief

Next Steps

This research is part of a regional collaborative project supported by the USDA-NIFA, Award No. 2011-68002-30190:Cropping Systems Coordinated Agricultural Project: Climate Change, Mitigation, and Adaptation in Corn-based Cropping Systems

Project Web site: sustainablecorn.org

“The greatest barrier to public recognition of human-made climate change is probably the

natural vulnerability of local climate. How can a person discern long-term climate change,

given the notorious variability of local weather and climate from day to day & year to year?”

(Hansen, Sato & Ruedy 2012, p. 1)Photo by Anna MacDonald