What to Consider What to Consider with Cellulosic with Cellulosic Biomass Harvest Biomass Harvest Daniel O’Brien & Troy Daniel O’Brien & Troy Dumler Dumler Extension Agricultural Extension Agricultural Economists Economists Ron Madl, BIVAP Director Ron Madl, BIVAP Director K-State Research and K-State Research and 2009 Kansas Wheat District Seminars
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What to Consider with Cellulosic Biomass Harvest Daniel OBrien & Troy Dumler Extension Agricultural Economists Ron Madl, BIVAP Director K-State Research.
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What to Consider with What to Consider with Cellulosic Biomass Cellulosic Biomass
K-State Research and ExtensionK-State Research and Extension
2009 Kansas Wheat District Seminars
A Decision Making Model for A Decision Making Model for Cellulosic Biomass ContractsCellulosic Biomass Contracts
Effort funded by Kansas Wheat-KAWGEffort funded by Kansas Wheat-KAWG• K-State, Oklahoma State & NRCS working togetherK-State, Oklahoma State & NRCS working together
PurposePurpose: To develop a biomass : To develop a biomass contract sales decision making model contract sales decision making model for Farmers for Farmers
– To help Kansas Farmers determine whether To help Kansas Farmers determine whether it is profitable to sell their crop biomass on it is profitable to sell their crop biomass on contract for cellulosic ethanol productioncontract for cellulosic ethanol production
Biomass Base Contract Payment Biomass Base Contract Payment $2.00 /acre$2.00 /acre
Biomass Production Payment Biomass Production Payment $5.00 /ton$5.00 /ton
Compensation for Crop Nutrient RemovalCompensation for Crop Nutrient Removal– @ Estimated Replacement Cost@ Estimated Replacement Cost $8.00 /ton $8.00 /ton
In-Field Storage Site & Carbon Credit Payments?In-Field Storage Site & Carbon Credit Payments?
BB. Cost . Cost DecreasesDecreases
In-Field Baled Biomass Storage Site (?)In-Field Baled Biomass Storage Site (?)
– Effect of non-producing acres used for in-Effect of non-producing acres used for in-field storage would be “field storage would be “proratedprorated” over all ” over all acres from which biomass was harvestedacres from which biomass was harvested
Wind & Water Erosion Wind & Water Erosion Yield Effects Yield Effects– NRCS determines allowable biomass harvest NRCS determines allowable biomass harvest – Impact accumulates over time Impact accumulates over time $/acre$/acre
Soil Moisture Depletion Caused by Crop Soil Moisture Depletion Caused by Crop Residue Removal Residue Removal Crop Yield Effects Crop Yield Effects Crop Income from soil moisture loss Crop Income from soil moisture loss $/acre$/acre
In-Field Storage Site Crop Losses In-Field Storage Site Crop Losses $/acre$/acre
Crop Nutrient Replacement CostsCrop Nutrient Replacement Costs Fertilizer costs to replace nutrients lost in Fertilizer costs to replace nutrients lost in
In-Field Storage Site Preparation CostIn-Field Storage Site Preparation Cost $/acre$/acre
Biomass ProductionBiomass Production
Figuring Crop Stover ProductionFiguring Crop Stover ProductionCrop YieldCrop Yield (bushels per acre)(bushels per acre)
x Crop Weightx Crop Weight (pounds per bushel)(pounds per bushel)
x Stover Production Efficiencyx Stover Production Efficiency (lb stover / lb grain)(lb stover / lb grain) = Stover Production= Stover Production (pounds per acre)(pounds per acre)
Corn Stover for Biomass HarvestCorn Stover for Biomass Harvest200 bu Irrig., 1.00 Stover Production Efficiency200 bu Irrig., 1.00 Stover Production Efficiency
ScenariScenarioo
Residue Residue ProductioProductio
nn
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
tons/acretons/acre
Residue Residue RemaininRemainin
gg
%%
AA 11,20011,200 1,0001,000 0.500.50 ton ton 91 91 %%
BB 11,20011,200 2,0002,000 1.001.00 ton ton 82 82 %%
CC 11,20011,200 3,0003,000 1.501.50 ton ton 73 73 %%
DD 11,20011,200 4,0004,000 2.002.00 ton ton 64 64 %%
EE 11,20011,200 5,0005,000 2.502.50 ton ton 55 55 %%
Wheat Straw for Biomass Wheat Straw for Biomass HarvestHarvest
45 bu, 1.67 Stover Production Efficiency45 bu, 1.67 Stover Production Efficiency
ScenariScenarioo
Residue Residue ProductioProductio
nn
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
tons/acretons/acre
Residue Residue RemaininRemainin
gg
%%
AA 4,5004,500 500500 0.250.25 ton ton 89 89 %%
BB 4,5004,500 1,0001,000 0.500.50 ton ton 78 78 %%
CC 4,5004,500 1,5001,500 0.750.75 ton ton 67 67 %%
DD 4,5004,500 2,0002,000 1.001.00 ton ton 56 56 %%
EE 4,5004,500 2,5002,500 1.251.25 ton ton 44 44 %%
Milo Stover for Biomass HarvestMilo Stover for Biomass Harvest125 bu Irrig., 1.00 Stover Production Efficiency125 bu Irrig., 1.00 Stover Production Efficiency
ScenariScenarioo
Residue Residue ProductioProductio
nn
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
lbs/acrelbs/acre
Residue Residue HarvesteHarveste
dd
tons/acretons/acre
Residue Residue RemaininRemainin
gg
%%
AA 7,0007,000 500500 0.250.25 ton ton 93 93 %%
BB 7,0007,000 1,0001,000 0.500.50 ton ton 86 86 %%
CC 7,0007,000 1,5001,500 0.750.75 ton ton 79 79 %%
DD 7,0007,000 2,0002,000 1.001.00 ton ton 71 71 %%
EE 7,0007,000 2,5002,500 1.251.25 ton ton 64 64 %%
In-Field OperationsIn-Field Operations– Chopping Stalks ? Chopping Stalks ? – Raking Stover ?Raking Stover ?– Swathing Stover?Swathing Stover?– Baling (Large Square vs Large Round Baling (Large Square vs Large Round
Bales) ?Bales) ?– Hauling to edge of the Field ?Hauling to edge of the Field ?– Short-term Storage of Bales at edge of Short-term Storage of Bales at edge of
Field ?Field ?
Custom Rates Used for Cost Estimates Custom Rates Used for Cost Estimates
Crop Yield Losses from Crop Yield Losses from Decreased Soil MoistureDecreased Soil Moisture
In Grain Producing Stages of Growth, 1 In Grain Producing Stages of Growth, 1 inch of available water produces…inch of available water produces…– 12 bu. of 12 bu. of CornCorn per acre per acre– 11 bu. of 11 bu. of Grain SorghumGrain Sorghum (Milo)(Milo) per acre per acre– 5 bu. of 5 bu. of WheatWheat per acre per acre
$Value of 1 inch H$Value of 1 inch H220 in deficit conditions0 in deficit conditions– Corn: Corn: $42 /acre$42 /acre @ $3.50 /bu. @ $3.50 /bu.– Milo: Milo: $35 /acre$35 /acre @ $3.15 /bu @ $3.15 /bu– Wheat: Wheat: $25 /acre$25 /acre @ $5.00 /bu. @ $5.00 /bu.
irrigation needs irrigation needs No effect on YieldsNo effect on Yields
3)3) Deficit Soil Water SuppliesDeficit Soil Water Supplies• Crop water needs exceed soil moisture Crop water needs exceed soil moisture
plus irrigation plus irrigation Lower YieldsLower Yields
Irrigation Moisture-Yield ImpactsIrrigation Moisture-Yield Impacts$ Impact of “Increased” & “Deficit” Scenarios$ Impact of “Increased” & “Deficit” Scenarios
2)2) ““Increased Irrigation” ScenarioIncreased Irrigation” Scenario• $Impact =$Impact = Cost to applied added water Cost to applied added water
$5.80/acre inch of water $5.80/acre inch of water (KSU pumping cost est.)(KSU pumping cost est.)
x Inches per acre of additional water appliedx Inches per acre of additional water applied
3)3) ““Deficit Soil Water” ScenarioDeficit Soil Water” Scenario• $Impact =$Impact = $Value of lost crop $Value of lost crop
productionproductionDeficit Water (inches/acre water deficit) Deficit Water (inches/acre water deficit) x Yield response (bushels/acre/inch of water)x Yield response (bushels/acre/inch of water)