Transcript KERRY O'BRIEN, PRESENTER: In the past two days in Washington, Prime inister Ke!in R"dd has had e#tensi!e ta$%s with President Bara&% Oama, Se&retary o( State )i$ary *$inton, and +e(ense Se&retary Roert ates- .nd .(ghanistan (eat"red in a$$ three &on!ersations - We' re to$d .meri&a hasn't yet (orma$$y as%ed (or a igger ."stra$ian &ommitment to the &aign against Ta$ian and a$ /aeda ins"rgents there, "t it seems it's 0"st a matter o( time- President Oama is ao"t to "n!ei$ his new po$i&y in .(ghanistan ased on an e#ha"sti!e re!iew- .nd one man with signi(i&ant inp"t to that re!iew was an ."stra$ian &o"nter1 ins"rgen&y e#pert named +a!id Ki$&"$$en, regarded in Washington as one o( the wor$d's most in($"entia$ e#perts on g"erri$$a war(are- )e was senior ad!iser to enera$ +a!id Petrae" s d"ring $ast year's s"rge in Ira2, and to *ondo$ee33a Ri&e- .t a time when ."stra$ia's +e(en&e inister 4oe$ 5it3gion appears to e spe&ta&"$ar$y o((side with his department, +a!id Ki$&"$$en is warning that ."stra$ian troops are ao"t to e#posed to greater ris% against the Ta$ian, and that the &on($i&t &o"$d $ast a de&ade- +a!id Ki$&"$$en has 0"st &omp$eted an e#ha"sti!e oo% on &o"nter1ins"rgen&y &a$$ed the '.&&identa$ "erri$$a', and I spo%e with him today o"t o( Washington- +a!id Ki$&"$$en, yo"' !e twi&e $ed 6S (ie$d assessment teams in 7889 and $ast year to re!iew the .( ghan &aign- What do yo" thin% President Oama's $atest re!iew wi$$ re&ommend+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: I thin% what we're $i%e$y to see is a meas"red in&rease in oth &i!i$ian and mi$itary assets in .(ghanistan and I thin% primari$y it's going to e a training rigade and a &o"p$e o( additiona$ &omat rigades into the so"th o( .(ghanistan- KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd is that what yo" thin% sho"$d e re&ommended+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: The re!iew's een !ery &omprehensi!e and in (a&t one o( the interesting things that oth ;i&e President Biden and Ri&hard )o$roo% ha!e said p"$i&$y is that we need to e (o&"sing on a&hie!a$e o0e&ti!es and ade2"ate reso"r&es- I thin% that's a !ery sensi$e way to approa&h the re!iew and they'!e "i$t on a n"mer o( re!iews that were done y the B"sh administration in the $ast twe$!e months- .nd I thin% one o( the %ey re&ommendations that's di((erent (rom 0"st troop n"mers or 0"st assets wi$$ e ao"t (o&"sing on prote&ting the .(ghan pop"$ation where it $i!es primari$y in &ities and sma$$ !i$$ages- That's proa$y the main shi(t that I thin% we=re going to see 0"st aside (rom the sheer n"mers- KERRY O'BRIEN: Yo"'!e written in the '.&&identa$ "erri$$a' that the .(ghan &aign may e approa&hing a tipping point, and a$tho"gh the &on($i&t might e winna$e, the o!era$$ trend is e#treme$y negati!e- What e!iden&e do yo" ase that on+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN : Three years sin&e 788> we'!e see ao"t a >88 per &ent in&rease in !io$en&e in .(ghanistan- In the same time(rame, the area that's a((e&ted y the ins"rgen&y has more than do"$ed- The &o"nter nar&oti&s &aign has, I wo"$d say, sta$$ed- Nar&oti&s hasn't got worse "t it's sti$$ sti&%ing at s"&h a high $e!e$ that )e$$man pro!in&e, the British pro!in&e, whi&h they are se&"ring, is now the wor$d &apita$ (or opi"m and heroin prod"&tion -
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.nd we'!e a$so seen a drop in s"pport (or oth the internationa$ presen&e and
the Kar3ai go!ernment o( 78 or ?8 per&entage points in that time (rame- So I
thin% o!era$$ we'd ha!e to say it's not going we$$-
KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd yo" point that a$$ the time the &on($i&t has een going on,
the Ta$ian ha!e een "i$ding the 2"a$ity and sophisti&ation and n"mers o(
their weapons arsena$-
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, they are getting etter-
KERRY O'BRIEN: In yo"r oo% yo" des&rie one att$e in a mo"ntain !a$$ey in
6r"3gan in 7889 to ma%e a point ao"t a&&identa$ g"erri$$as and the ris% o(
p$aying into the hands o( what yo" &a$$ an a$ /aeda e#ha"stion strategy- *an
yo" rie($y e#p$ain that point
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: The 1 we$$, two things- The (irst one is the att$e whi&h too%
p$a&e @Ath o( ay, 7889- It was a patro$ (rom third Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p- The
third atta$ion o( Spe&ia$ 5or&es gro"p, I sho"$d say, o"t o( 5ort Bragg, North
*aro$ina- They were mo!ing thro"gh a !a$$ey in northern 6r"3gan when they
were am"shed y ao"t @>8 Ta$ian- They were pinned down (or ao"t si#
ho"rs and one .meri&an was %i$$ed, se!en were wo"nded, and it too% them
&a$$ing "p (ighter 0ets to e#a&t$y e#tra&t themse$!es (rom the (ight- Theinteresting thing, tho"gh, was the reason they were pinned down was not so
m"&h the Ta$ian, it was e&a"se the $o&a$ peop$e in the !a$$ey went home to
their !i$$ages, got their weapons and &ame a&% and 0oined in 1 and assisted in
(ighting the patro$-
.(ter the att$e, we as%ed a $ot o( the $o&a$s, yo" %now, Why did yo" s"pport
the Ta$ian We didn't thin% yo" were on the Ta$ian side- .nd they said, We$$,
we're not- B"t they said, yo" %now, This is the most e#&iting thing that's
happened in o"r !a$$ey (or ao"t 78 years- .nd we &o"$dn't sit it o"t, that
wo"$d'!e een dishono"ra$e- .nd i( we're going to 0oin in, we're going to 0oin in
on the side o( the $o&a$ g"y, not the side o( the (oreigner-
.nd so this to me is a &$assi& e#amp$e o( what I &a$$ the a&&identa$ g"erri$$asyndrome, where a $ot o( the peop$e that are (ighting "s aren't (ighting "s
e&a"se they're ideo$ogi&a$$y &ommitted to a$ /aeda or to the Ta$ian or any o(
the other e#tremist gro"p, they're (ighting "s e&a"se we 0"st t"rned "p in their
!a$$ey and sort o( p"shed them into the arms o( a $o&a$ enemy-
thro"gho"t so"thern .(ghanistan to show how e((e&ti!e$y the Ta$ian is
spreading its in($"en&e- *an yo" e$aorate on the point
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes, right now we ha!e ao"t @? Shari'ah $aw &o"rts
r"nning a&ross !ario"s parts o( the so"th o( .(ghanistan- .nd when yo" hear
the term Shari'ah $aw &o"rt, yo" thin%, yo" %now, women getting stoned (or
ad"$tery and hands getting &"t o(( and so on- .nd that does happen, "tinteresting$y ao"t A> per &ent o( the wor% o( these &o"rts are what we wo"$d
&a$$ &i!i$ or &ommer&ia$ $aw- They do property disp"tes, &on!eyan&ing,
inheritan&e, di!or&e $aw- They do a "n&h o( things that re$ated to water and
gra3ing and essentia$$y they're pro!iding disp"te reso$"tion and mediation
ser!i&es at the $o&a$ $e!e$ (or !i$$ages a&ross the so"th o( .(ghanistan-
Now the reason that they are doing it and not the go!ernment is two1(o$d-
5irst$y, the internationa$ &omm"nity spent a $ot o( e((ort "i$ding instit"tions at
the nationa$ $e!e$- So we went in and "i$t &o"rts and S"preme *o"rt 0"dges
and a po$i&e head2"arters in Ka"$ and so on- B"t the Ta$ian (o&"sed on the
$o&a$ $e!e$-
.nd se&ond$y, the other ma0or reason why it's een so e((e&ti!e (or them is thatthey (i$$ed a gap that we'!e &reated y sending the po$i&e to (ight the ins"rgents
rather than %eeping them with the peop$e to prote&t the pop"$ation-
KERRY O'BRIEN: .nd in the pro&ess, are they gi!ing themse$!es a sense o(
$egitima&y in the eyes o( the peop$e .nd an i$$"sion o( go!ernment
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: That's right to some e#tent- The most re&ent po$$ing in
.(ghanistan s"ggested that ao"t CC per &ent o( the .(ghan pop"$ation sti$$
(ears and dis$i%es the Ta$ian- On$y ao"t (o"r per &ent o( them want to see the
Ta$ian ta%e o!er- B"t o"r e#perien&e in Ira2 parti&"$ar$y and in a$so the
eastern1so"th o( .(ghanistan is that when p"sh &omes to sho!e, the pop"$ation
wi$$ go with whoe!er &an pro!ide them a sense o( predi&tai$ity and order and a
sense o( sa(ety, whi&h &omes (rom that order- .nd in the &ase o( a $ot o( !i$$ages
in the so"th o( .(ghanistan, that's the Ta$ian-
Now, one o( the things I do is when I go in the (ie$d, I as% peop$e a "n&h o(
2"estions designed to (ig"re o"t, yo" %now, where their $oya$ties $ie and what
they thin% ao"t the sit"ation- .nd I o(ten say to peop$e in .(ghanistan, I(
someone sto$e yo"r i&y&$e and one o( yo"r $i!esto&%, who wo"$d yo" report it
Wo"$d yo" report it to the po$i&e or wo"$d yo" report it to someone e$se .nd
they $a"gh when yo" s"ggest that they wo"$d report it to the po$i&e, they say,
They'd 0"st eat "s "p (or othering them- B"t i( we report it to the Ta$ian, we
%now we'd get it a&%- So that to me is an indi&ation o(, yo" %now, peop$e
don't ne&essari$y $i%e the Ta$ian, "t they tr"st in their ai$ity to de$i!er
se&"rity at the $o&a$ $e!e$-
KERRY O'BRIEN: +oes it rea$$y matter anymore whether Osama Bin <aden is
&a"ght or not
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$, Osama Bin <aden's in Pa%istan, and it's good to ring
that "p e&a"se i( yo" were to ta%e the pop"$ation o( Ira2 and the pop"$ation o(
Pa%istan, smash them together, yo" sti$$ add "p to on$y ao"t a third o( the
pop"$ation o( Pa%istan- Pa%istan's got @D? mi$$ion peop$e, it has @88 n"&$ear
weapons, it has an army $arger than the 6S army and it has a$ /aeda
head2"arters sitting there, right there in the two thirds o( the &o"ntry that the
go!ernment doesn't &ontro$- So i( Pa%istan were to &o$$apse and we were to see
an a$ /aeda ta%eo!er, that wo"$d e a pro$em that wo"$d dwar( anything we'!e
seen sin&e A@@ in terms o( s&a$e and se!erity- So I thin%, rea$$y, the (o&"s thatwe need to e p"tting in terms o( $ong1term iss"es in what we "sed to &a$$ the
war on terrorism is primari$y Pa%istan-
KERRY O'BRIEN: Yo" a$so ta$% ao"t the ease with whi&h ins"rgents &ross
etween Pa%istan and .(ghanistan, sometimes in road day$ight "nder the
noses o( Pa%istani mi$itary &he&%points- Pa%istan at the moment &$ear$y doesn't
ha!e the wi$$ or the &apa&ity to do m"&h ao"t that- B"t what &an .meri&a do,
rea$$y, to &hange the sit"ation
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: We$$, this is easy to say "t e#treme$y hard to e#e&"te-
What we'!e done in re$ation to Pa%istan in the past has primari$y een (o&"sed
on %i$$ing or &apt"ring the senior $eadership o( a$ /aeda and the Ta$ian- We'!e
had %ind o( an instr"menta$ re$ationship with the Pa%istanis where we want atransa&tion where they de$i!er a$ /aeda and the Ta$ian and we pat them on
the heads and say they're good oys-
That is not where the Pa%istanis are at- The Pa%istanis ha!e a $ong history o(
s"pporting the Ta$ian as an "n&on!entiona$ &o"nterweight to Indian regiona$
in($"en&e- They are &ontin"ing to do that and I don't ta$% here ao"t the
Pa%istani &i!i$ian $eadership, whi&h is demo&rati&a$$y e$e&ted and genera$$y
(a!o"ra$e to internationa$ &omm"nity e((ort in .(ghanistan- I'm ta$%ing ao"t
se&tions within the mi$itary and the inte$$igen&e &omm"nity-
KERRY O'BRIEN: Whi&h yo" ta$% ao"t as a mi$itary state within a state-
+.;I+ KI<*6<<EN: Yes and a rog"e state within a state at that- It doesn't(o$$ow the dire&tion o( the e$e&ted po$iti&ian- Yo" on$y ha!e to $oo% at what
happened a(ter the "mai atta&% in No!emer $ast year when President .si(
.$i Fardari, the president o( Pa%istan, to$d the Indians that enera$ Pasha, the