What is statistics? Data Analysis Trends Proof Hypothesis Represent Interpret.

What is statistics?

• Data• Analysis• Trends• Proof• Hypothesis• Represent• Interpret

The History of Statistics

• Early statistics 5th Century BC

• 17th Century – Blaise Pascal, Pierre de Fermat

• 19th Century – Sir Francis Galton & Karl Pearson

• 21st Century – The age of the computer

Famous Statistician

Who uses statistics?

Who uses statistics?• Geographers

– Climatologists– Oceanographers– Politicians

• Economists– Travel and Transport advisors

• Car Park Planning• Speed Cameras • Development of new roads, train lines, airports

– Retailers– Insurance Brokers– World Health Organisation– Scientists

• Drug Trials• Medical Treatments• Disease Control / Prevention

Graphical Representations

Can you name / sketch 8 different types of graphs and charts?

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful

Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

Beautiful Statistics

What is Global Warming?

What is Climate Change?

How could we answer the following questions?

In your lifetime (the last 14 years) have temperatures in the UK• Increased• Decreased • Or remained stable ?

In your lifetime (the last 14 years) has rainfall in the UK• Increased• Decreased • Or remained stable ?

Using historical data to identify trends and make predictions.

The met office has been collecting and collating data since 1914. Their website enables you to view data from any of

their stations indicated with the red dot.

Using historical data to identify trends and make predictions.

We will now look at the mean maximum

temperature data collected by the Lowestoft

station since 2000.

What does the graph suggest?Quarter Average Max

Temp

2000 1st 9.1

2000 2nd 15.4

2000 3rd 19.42000 4th 10.6

2001 1st 7.4

2001 2nd 15.0

2001 3rd 19.9

2001 4th 11.32002 1st 9.0

2002 2nd 20.1

2002 3rd 20.6

2002 4th 11.0

2003 1st 7.62003 2nd 16.8

2003 3rd 20.5

2003 4th 11.0

2004 1st 8.22004 2nd 16.1

2004 3rd 19.82004 4th 11.1

2005 1st 8.3

2005 2nd 15.8

2005 3rd 19.9

2005 4th 11.42006 1st 6.9

2006 2nd 15.7

2006 3rd 23.7

2006 4th 12.7

2007 1st 10.0

2007 2nd 16.72007 3rd 19.7

2007 4th 11.1

2008 1st 9.3

2008 2nd 15.9

2008 3rd 20.22008 4th 10.3

2009 1st 7.9

2009 2nd 16.1

2009 3rd 21.2

2009 4th 11.62010 1st 6.4

2010 2nd 15.4

2010 3rd 20.7

2010 4th 9.1

2011 1st 8.6

2011 2nd 17.82011 3rd 20.1

2011 4th 13.0

2012 1st 9.0

2012 2nd 14.6

2012 3rd 20.42012 4th 10.7

2013 1st 5.5

2013 2nd 14.4

2013 3rd 20.7

2013 4th 11.7

Moving AveragesQuarter Average Max

Temp

2000 1st 9.1

2000 2nd 15.4

2000 3rd 19.4

2000 4th 10.6

2001 1st 7.4

2001 2nd 15.0

2001 3rd 19.9

2001 4th 11.3

2002 1st 9.0

2002 2nd 20.1

2002 3rd 20.6

2002 4th 11.0

2003 1st 7.6

2003 2nd 16.8

2003 3rd 20.5

2003 4th 11.0

2004 1st 8.2

2004 2nd 16.1

2004 3rd 19.8

2004 4th 11.1

2005 1st 8.3

2005 2nd 15.8

2005 3rd 19.9

2005 4th 11.4

2006 1st 6.9

2006 2nd 15.7

2006 3rd 23.7

2006 4th 12.7

2007 1st 10.0

2007 2nd 16.7

2007 3rd 19.7

2007 4th 11.1

2008 1st 9.3

2008 2nd 15.9

2008 3rd 20.2

2008 4th 10.3

2009 1st 7.9

2009 2nd 16.1

2009 3rd 21.2

2009 4th 11.6

2010 1st 6.4

2010 2nd 15.4

2010 3rd 20.7

2010 4th 9.1

2011 1st 8.6

2011 2nd 17.8

2011 3rd 20.1

2011 4th 13.0

2012 1st 9.0

2012 2nd 14.6

2012 3rd 20.4

2012 4th 10.7

2013 1st 5.5

2013 2nd 14.4

2013 3rd 20.7

2013 4th 11.7

Year and Quarter Average Max Temp

2000 1st 9.1

2000 2nd 15.413.62000 3rd 19.413.22000 4th 10.613.12001 1st 7.4

2001 2nd 15.0 2001 3rd 19.9 2001 4th 11.3 2002 1st 9.0 2002 2nd 20.1 2002 3rd 20.6 2002 4th 11.0 2003 1st 7.6 2003 2nd 16.8 2003 3rd 20.5 2003 4th 11 2004 1st 8.2

2004 2nd 16.1

Adding a trend line. What does the trend line tell us about average temperatures since 2000?

The bigger picture

The bigger picture

Average rainfall in the UK past 100 years

Could the recent flooding have been predicted?

• Changes to the rainfall pattern have been observed - these are sometimes more extreme (which means that locations are either a lot wetter or a lot drier than they used to be). At other times the rainfall pattern is out of season. The extreme rainfall in the UK during the summer of 2007 is an example of this. However, in general, UK summers are getting drier and winters are getting wetter.

Climatic Investigations

• Should we expect a hot summer this year?

• What could indicate a hot summer is on the way?

Weather Forecast for 2014

• Perhaps hard to believe during the wettest winter in a hundred years, but scientists are 75 per cent certain that 2014 will be the hottest summer on record.

• The weather is being linked to the El Niño pattern, which occurs when waters on the Pacific equator are unusually warm, which can lead to disruptive changes in ocean and wind currents across the world.

• The researchers hope that the longer forecasts could be used to help countries prepare more effectively for the potentially turbulent weather changes El Niño can bring.

El Niño

El Niño is a set of phenomena caused by periodic changes in the ocean atmosphere system in the tropical Pacific Ocean. During El Niño, the trade winds, which usually blow warm surface waters to the west, die down or even reverse. When the wind stops blowing the warm water to the west, the warm water pools in the east, triggering a number of effects in the atmosphere and ocean.

In your own words

Read the information about El Niño in your booklets.

Work with your group to write your own definition in no more that 30 words.

Prizes on offer for the best definition!

Detecting El Niño

One way to detect El Niño is to look at sea surface temperature (SST). The US Ocean and

Coastal and Observation system maintains numerous data sets that can be used to study

El Niño.

We are going to look at some today!

Collecting and recording data

Collecting and recording data

Can you identify the El Niño years?

Can you identify the El Niño years?

ENSO Cycle: Recent Evolution, Current Status

and Predictions

Update prepared byClimate Prediction Center / NCEP

18 February 2014

SST Departures (oC) in the Tropical Pacific During the Last 4 Weeks

During the last 4-weeks, equatorial SSTs were above average in the western Pacific and below-average across the central and eastern Pacific.

SST Outlook: NCEP CFS.v2 Forecast Issued 18 February 2014

The CFS.v2 ensemble mean (black dashed line) predicts ENSO-neutral through the N.H. spring 2014 followed by El Niño starting in May-July (MJJ) 2014

How can we use this data to influence behaviour

• What are the benefits of predicting weather events?

REVIEW

• The History of Statistics• Beautiful Statistics• Village of 100 people• Temperature changes• Using Moving Averages• Rainfall changes• Interpreting Data with care• El Niño• Forecast for 2014• How can statistics influence behaviour changes• Competition !