What could research do for the futures of family farming?

• 1. 1 What could research do for the futures of family farming? International Encounters Family Farming and Research Montpellier 02/06/2014 Robin Bourgeois Global Forum on Agricultural Research

2. What can we learn from Futures Studies about the futures of family farming? Linking research and family farming? What scientists and research organisations could do? Content 2 3. What can we learn from Futures Studies Drivers and challenges: Policies and societal values Consumers attitudes and behaviors Food insecurity The diversity of theFarming World 3 4. Who will want to farm? Agriculture a valued sector Farming a worthwhile profession Freedom and self-reliance Farming and more Agriculture a fall back position Tough work and poor cashflow Source: Leavy J. and Hossain N. Who wants to farm? Youth aspirations, opportunities and rising prices, IDS Working Paper, 2014(439) 4 5. Future agricultural land uses Agricultural land expansion versus agricultural land reduction Multifunctional use versus specialized use Rural area abandonment versus rural area revitalization (Future) Rural transformations 5 6. Future links between consumption and production Standardized consumption patterns, and food supplied by international markets connected to larger more concentrated agro-industrial agriculture versus Regional and diversified consumption patterns, supplied by local more diversified family agriculture (Future) Rural transformations 6 7. Today Revitalisation of rural areas Abandonment of rural areas Smaller numerous multi-functional systems of activity linked to local markets of diversified products Fewer large agro-industrial systems of activity linked to global markets of standardised products Rural poles Patchworks of nucleus and plasma, clusters? Rural continuums Wealth of family farms ? Rural oases Rural ghettos Urban farming Marginalization of family farms ? Farming Cities Rural stations Concentration of production? 7 8. Causes and effects: research domains Family farming: a complex domain Linking research and family farming? 8 9. certaintyuncertainty present future COMPLICATED Cause and effect are separated in time and space and can be researched Analyze/Guidelines good practice The cause-effect relationship does not repeat and is unpredictable COMPLEX Experiment/Principles emergent practice CAHOTIC No cause-effect relationship can be observed Decide/Vision new practice SIMPLE The cause-effect relationship is repeatable Act/rules best practice 9 Adapted from Cynefin and D. Snowden 10. The cause-effect relationship is repeatable Cause and effect are separated in time and space and can be researched The cause-effect relationship does not repeat and is unpredictable No cause-effect relationship can be observed certaintyuncertainty present future Scientific knowledge Scientific inquiry Societal experimentation good practice emergent practice new practice best practice Situational intelligence 10 11. SIMPLECHAOTIC COMPLEX COMPLICATED The cause-effect relationship is repeatable Cause and effect are separated in time and space and can be researched The cause-effect relationship does not repeat and is unpredictable No cause-effect relationship can be observed certaintyuncertainty present future 11 plants cattle fish forest farming systems livelihood; power socio-economic links shocks and hazards 12. COMPLEX The cause-effect relationship does not repeat and is unpredictable Experiment/Principles certaintyuncertainty present future good practiceemergent practice best practice 12 13. Working for family farming and farmers Scaling up the best practice (which work the same for everyone) ? Adapting some good practices that only works in some circumstances ? Contributing to situational intelligence leading to new practices ? Constructing emergent practices which works in some circumstances, identifying principles for societal experimentation? What scientists and research organisations could do? 13 14. && & & Sharing Values? 14 People goods Well-being profit Sustainability productivity Equity growth