Welcome and Overview CARBOOCEAN (30 minutes) EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment” 5 th Annual & Final Meeting – Solstrand Hotel Norway 5-9 October 2009
Welcome and Overview CARBOOCEAN
(30 minutes)
EU FP6 Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN ”Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment”
5th Annual & Final Meeting – Solstrand Hotel Norway 5-9 October 2009
EU Integrated Project CARBOOCEAN – Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment, 35 partners, 50 groups, Europe, Morocco, USA, Canada, IOC/IOCCP, 2005-2009
www.carboocean.org
Overall goal and mission
CARBOOCEAN IP (= CarboOcean Integrated Project) aims at an accurate scientific as-sessment of the marine carbon sources and sinks within space and time. It focuses on the Atlantic and Southern Oceans and a time interval of -200 to +200 years from now.
CARBOOCEAN determines the ocean’s quantitative role for uptake of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2), the most important manageable driving agent for climate change.
CARBOOCEAN creates scientific knowledge, which is essential to a quantitative risk/uncertainty judgement on the expected consequences of rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Based on this judgement, it will be possible to guide the development of appropriate mitigation actions, such as management of CO2 emission reductions within a global context (e.g., Kyoto Protocol, United Nations, 1997; post-Kyoto negotiations).
CARBOOCEAN combines the key European experts and scientific resources in the field through an integrated research effort.
Objectives of CARBOOCEAN IPGuiding sustainable
development management
CO2
emissionsObjective 5:Prediction, future assessment
Initial conditions
Objective 1: Short-term assessment
System dynamics Boundary conditions
Objective 3:Assessment of
Regional EuropeanContribution
Objective 2:Long term
assessment
Objective 4:Assessment of
feedbacks
Core Theme 1: North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO 2 air-sea exchange
Core Theme 2: Detection of decadal-centennial Atlantic and Southern Ocean carbon inventory changes
Core Theme 3:Carbon uptake and release at European regional scales
Core Theme 4: Biogeochemical feedback on the oceanic carbon sinks
Core Theme 5: Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Over-arching activity: Prediction
Over-arching activity: Long-term assessment
Over-arching activity: Short-term assessment
Final W
orkshop
Kick-O
ff Meeting
MonthPhase:
0 19 37 55 60Understanding Nowcast and
Prediction Synopsis and Sustainment
Description
Expression of Interest:
PI meeting (ca. 20 persons) in Amsterdam April 2002
EoI ”MARCASSA” June 2002
Marine carbon sources and sinks assessment
this is a „marcassin“ (French)
Bergen October 2003 submission of stage 1 proposal among 30 out of 300 proposals
Paris January 2004 writing meeting with core theme leaders
Bergen February 2004 submission of stage 2 proposal no. 4 out of 30/300
July 2004 – start of negotiations
January 1, 2005 – start of CARBOOCEAN
Travel effort for proposal preparation:
Ca. 130 x 1000 EUR = 130,000 EUR expenses
+ equiv. 1 person year 90,000 EUR
Person effort for proposal preparation:
min. 1.5 person year for 130,000 EUR
Meeting costs, advisor costs:
50,000 EUR
400,000 EUR costs invested only for the writing and negotiation of the proposal.
Results beyond the state of the art – a selection:
Air-sea carbon fluxes are regionally considerably more variable as previously thought.
A North Atlantic carbon observing system has been built up which delivers high accuracy basin-wide air-sea CO2 flux measurements
In considerable areas of the Atlantic and the Southern Ocean the surface CO2 partial pressure has increased faster than that in the atmosphere – this potential decrease in CO2 sink must be observed further
The pH value of seawater is sinking (time series measurements, surface and deep). Model results show consequences of ocean acidification at the ocean floor. Mesocosm experiments show the reaction of ecosystems for sinking pH.
Cutting edge global surface ocean CO2 (most comprehensive in the world!) and Atlantic 3-D carbon data syntheses have been carried out with international colleagues.
Future scenarios on show that the carbon cycle re-enforces climate change (positive feedback). Emission targets need to be adjusted accordingly.
SOCAT – Surface Ocean CO2 Atlas
Data worth > 20 million Euros can be used to it’s full potentialData worth > 20 million Euros can be used to it’s full potential
SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation of the ocean CO2 sink and it’s variability
SOCAT will allow a more accurate estimation of the ocean CO2 sink and it’s variability
International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP International effort coordinated by UNESCO/IOCCP
All data is available in the same format for the first time which is essential for science related to climate research!All data is available in the same format for the first time which is essential for science related to climate research!
Quality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technologyQuality controlled by regional experts using state-of-the-art technology
World largest CO2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years> 7,5 million CO2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements
World largest CO2 database: covers 2150 cruises over 40 years> 7,5 million CO2, > 10 million temperature, > 9 million salinity measurements
Core theme 1 - North Atlantic and Southern Ocean CO2 air-sea exchange on a seasonal-to-interannualscale
CARINA - Carbon dioxide in the Atlantic Ocean
Will allow for improved estimates of ocean carbon inventory and transport
Will allow for improved estimates of ocean carbon inventory and transport
Data rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients dataData rescue project for deep sea carbon dioxide and nutrients data
Collaborative effort between US and EUROPECollaborative effort between US and EUROPE
Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises with approx. 16.000 stations)Largest high quality dataset of the entire Atlantic Ocean (188 cruises with approx. 16.000 stations)
Data with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescuedData with an estimated value of > 50 million Euros was rescued
Core theme 2 - Detection of decadal-to-centennial ocean carbon inventorychanges
Core theme 3 - Carbon uptake and release at European regional scale
Huertas et al. (2009)
Core theme 4 - Biogeochemical feedbacks on the oceanic carbon sink
Heinze, pers. Communication (talked to myself…)
Core theme 5 - Future scenarios for marine carbon sources and sinks
Tjiputra, Assmann, Bentsen et al.
CarboOcean‘s and CarboEurope‘s outreach project „CarboSchools“
Experimentation projects Processing scientific data Field trips and expeditions Observation and measurements
Publications
• 1. Educ. booklet:What we have learned, What we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change
•2. Educ. booklet:What we have learned, what we still don’t know and what we must do to combat climate change
•3. Educ. booklet:in prep.
• CarboSchools regional operators’ handbook
•Teacher/scientist partnership guide
Online resources
CarboSchools website:www.carboschools.org
- materials - publications - SchoolCO2web
• Regional websites (native languages)
60 European schools, 65 projects, 1450 pupils, x teachers, x scientists…
Volbers et al.
EU publication
Joint effort of marine and terrestrial carbon research community
http://cordis.europa.eu/fetch?CALLER=PUBL_LIB_FP6&ACTION=D&DOC=1&CAT=PUBL&QUERY=0120470ebee7:cc11:5add4443&RCN=200910237
CarboOcean Info-film
Univisjon and many helping hands
So – what is the importance of all this?
Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm
Preindustrial niveau 278 ppm
15 μm
4.3 μm
7.2 μm
(Barrett, 2005)
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.22.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Anthropogenic forcing
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.22.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Anthropogenic forcing
Variability ranges??
Anthropogenic forcing
Raupach et al., 2007, PNAS, additions by P.Canadell
20062005
CO2 is most important and managable agent of human induced climate change:
”How much CO2 is leaving the atmosphere where and when?” ”What is going to happen – what forcing?” ”Not leaving the world view to others!”
Water column inventory of man made CO2
for year 1994
mole m-2
Sabine et al., Science, 2004
Integrated CO2 uptake: 1750-1994, ca. 50% of human-produced emissions
Annual CO2 uptake at present: 25% of human-produced emissions ONLY!
Water column inventory of man made CO2
for year 1994
mole m-2
Sabine et al., Science, 2004
Watson, Schuster et al., UEA
The ocean carbon sink is regionally more variable than previously thought!
Schuster et al. (2009) DSR II
Air-sea CO2 flux changes also in Southern Ocean!
obs. atm. CO2 + ocean impulse response uptake
constant 1967 forcingdaily NCEP forcing
From:LeQuéré et al., 2007, Science, Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO2 sink due to recent climate change
Sink decrease inferred from observations and modelling !
TCO2 from a model (HAMOOC4)
Pre-industrial 1990 2004
Atlantic Ocean
The actual TCO2 and the anthropogenic TCO2 have completely different patterns. Only the ”actual” can readily be observed. Oceanic antropogenic CO2 is tiny on huge background.
Figure 7.3
IPCC AR4, ch. 7, modified from Sarmiento and Gruber, 2006, with changes in pool sizes from Sabine et al., 2004a
Challenge: the net fluxes are also tiny on background of huge gross fluxes
WHAT TO DO NEXT?
Key processes – identification & quantification
Sustained observations – follow the non-steady state
Calibrated models – train models with memory of the past and present
Tell policy makers the most feasible pathway for mitigation
Apollo 17, NASA
Odum‘s analogue: space ship Earth