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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES SWITZERLAND Weekly publication of the Specialised Portfolio Management Team of Lombard Odier Contacts [email protected] important information – material with non personalised recommendations Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only. Please see important information at the end of this document. KEY/NEW INVESTMENT IDEAS · Fixed Income Last year we recommended buying the GM 1.875 % 2019 in EUR. Given the new issue GM in USD, we would recommend exchanging the old EUR for the new USD, thus shortening the duration and gaining 20bps yield, adjusted for currency basis. · Equities Take advantage of the market rebound to reduce sectors that are uncertain in the medium term, which is typically the case for commodities (i.e. Glencore) and stocks, which outperformed and look fairly valued (i.e. AB Foods). Increase exposure to European banks (i.e. BNP) and US Tech (i.e. Alphabet) as we believe there is value to extract from these two sectors in Q4. Invest in a 3-year USD Leveraged Certificate on Abbott (R), Abbvie (R) and Merck (R) with a barrier 60% at maturity and participation level of 200% to the basket, following the recent healthcare sell-off, which offers attractive entry points. Buy the LO Alpha Japan Fund: the time has come to accumulate Japanese equities, which suffered from the Chinese turmoil, and are now offering nice entry levels from a fundamental, technical and valuation perspective. 09 .10 09 october 2015 Table of contents · Fixed income p.04 · Equities p.06 · Currencies p.14 The Q3 earnings kick off will certainly be the dominant story next week to judge both US economic strength and the impact of the US dollar on corporates. We reiterate our message of selectivity and agility Also featured - Highlights on · Hedge Funds, with a quarterly review from our HF Open Architecture Team p. 13
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Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

Jan 23, 2016

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Page 1: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTESSWITZERLAND

Weekly publication of the Specialised Portfolio Management Team of Lombard Odier

Contacts [email protected]

important information – material with non personalised recommendationsAuthorised for distribution in Switzerland only.

Please see important information at the end of this document.

KEY/NEW INVESTMENT IDEAS · Fixed Income Last year we recommended buying the GM 1.875 % 2019 in EUR. Given the

new issue GM in USD, we would recommend exchanging the old EUR for the new USD, thus shortening the duration and gaining 20bps yield, adjusted for currency basis.

· Equities Take advantage of the market rebound to reduce sectors that are uncertain in

the medium term, which is typically the case for commodities (i.e. Glencore) and stocks, which outperformed and look fairly valued (i.e. AB Foods).

Increase exposure to European banks (i.e. BNP) and US Tech (i.e. Alphabet) as we believe there is value to extract from these two sectors in Q4.

Invest in a 3-year USD Leveraged Certificate on Abbott (R), Abbvie (R) and Merck (R) with a barrier 60% at maturity and participation level of 200% to the basket, following the recent healthcare sell-off, which offers attractive entry points.

Buy the LO Alpha Japan Fund: the time has come to accumulate Japanese equities, which suffered from the Chinese turmoil, and are now offering nice entry levels from a fundamental, technical and valuation perspective.

09.1009 october 2015

Table of contents

· Fixed income p.04

· Equities p.06

· Currencies p.14

The Q3 earnings kick off will certainly be the dominant story next week to judge both US economic strength and the

impact of the US dollar on corporates. We reiterate our

message of selectivity and agility

Also featured - Highlights on

· Hedge Funds, with a quarterly review from our HF Open Architecture Team p. 13

Page 2: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015Page 02/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

MARKET UPDATE

THIS PAST WEEK

Stocks continue to recover

Global stocks started the quarter on a firm note as participants largely shrugged aside disappointing service-sector data on both sides of the Atlantic, focusing instead on the prospect of the US Federal Reserve leaving interest rates lower for longer, following last Friday’s weak non-farm payrolls report. Indeed, US September payrolls were much weaker than expected, with downward revisions to prior months. In addition, expectations have grown that the European Central Bank, Bank of Japan and People’s Bank of China could soon ramp up their current stimulus measures.

Oil prices move higher

Energy stocks rose sharply as Brent oil climbed back above USD 52 a barrel to a one-month high, supported by a weaker dollar and continued expectations for lower US crude output amid anticipation that the country’s rig count could decline again this week. Moreover, Russia apparently is willing to hold talks with OPEC and non-OPEC producers to discuss output, and lastly tensions over Syria are also helping support prices.

Economic data

In the US, the widening in trade deficit, from USD 41.8bn in July to USD 48.3bn in August, was not as bad as anticipated. In Europe, German feeble August IP was in focus, echoing weak factory orders. Indeed, German industrial orders fell unexpectedly in August, and were revised down for July, in a sign that the slowdown in emerging markets is beginning to take its toll on Europe’s biggest economy. China FX reserves point to continued outflows as they fell another USD 43bn last month, better than feared. This will help to reduce worries that we could see another sharp yuan depreciation in the near term. Finally, the IMF lowered its global outlook bringing the new projections in line with the market consensus.

US earnings season

Compared to 3Q14, sales are expected to fall 3%, while analysts expect a decline of p.04 in EPS. Excluding the battered energy sector, EPS is expected to increase by 2.2%. Given the recent uncertainty over the global economic backdrop, a reassuring earnings season would offer clear support to equity markets. Actual earnings per share for the S&P 500 have exceeded estimates in each of the last 25 quarters. This routine beating of expectations is one of the reasons why the beginning of the earnings season is often a period of positive returns for the S&P 500.

Weekly performance (in USD)

Source: Bloomberg, 5 rolling days as of 07 October 2015

0.06%

2.26%

4.13%4.45%

1.06%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Global Bonds Global Convertibles Global Equities Global Commodities Hedge Funds

Page 3: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015Page 03/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

PERSPECTIVES

While the outlook for global growth has been further clouded by weakness in manufacturing and persistent capital outflows from EM economies, the negative print on US non-farm payrolls triggered the classic return of the “Bad news is Good news” confusion with a massive run in risky assets as it supported the view of the Fed staying on hold…

The US continues to be the focus of investors’ attention, and the Q3 earnings kick off will certainly be the dominant story next week to judge from both its economic strength and the impact of the US dollar on corporates. We reiterate our message of selectivity and agility. Although focus is likely to be on financials next week (see our Earnings results calendar tab on the right) we reiterate our conviction regarding the new tech parent company of Google, Alphabet (see p. 08), and recommend investors to position before their earnings report in two weeks.

As recently stated by our Investment Committee, and while maintaining our defensive bias in equities, we recognize that recent volatility spikes have created buying opportunities, and Japan has emerged as one of them in an environment where central banks are trapped into additional stimulus measures.

We therefore take the opportunity to reiterate our Overweight Japan preference through the LOF – Alpha Japan (USD Hedged) P A (See p. 10).

For fixed income, we reiterate prudence and selectivity with respect to high beta debt and recommend investors use current rebound to rebalance risk within portfolios by structurally reducing the sovereign underweight.

Turning to currencies, the lower US NFPs, and therefore lower US dollar, supports our recent Neutral view on the greenback (a downgrade from positive for the first time this year). We keep our recommendation unchanged to reduce the USD overweight in portfolios, and look at option strategies to do so (See p. 15 for pricing).

Looking beyond the earnings results and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East (which cannot be ignored), investors concerned about China over recent months will have more details on the authorities’ plans to boost the domestic economy with China’s fifth plenum, which is expected to take place in mid-October.

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

2015 USA Europe Asia

09/10 Wholesale Inventories MoM

Industrial Production (FR, IT)

Exports (ID); Home Loans (AU)

12/10 Industrial Production (IN); Exports (IN)

13/10 CPI (GE, SW, UK); PPI (UK); ZEW (EC, GE)

Trade Balance (CH)

14/10 Retail Sales CPI (FR, SP, IT), Jobless Claims (UK)

PPI (CH, JN); CPI (CH)

15/10 Jobless Claims; CPI; Empire Manufacturing

Unemployment Rate (SW)

Unemployment (AU); Industrial Production (JN)

16/10 Industrial Production; Michigan Sentiment

CPI (EC) Exports (SI)

EARNINGS RELEASE

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

2015 North America Europe

09/10

12/10

13/10 Johnson & Johnson; JP Morgan; Intel

14/10 BlackRock; BoA; Wells Fargo; Netflix

15/10 Goldman Sachs; Citigroup; Schlumberger; Philip Morris

16/10 General Electric

Page 4: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS

Bad news is (again) good news: the weak NFP report, which sent the FED rate hike expectations as far as 2016, gave a boost to a renewed “risk-on” mood. The move was helped by the rebound in commodities and the oil complex (up around 10% in just a few days). After a sharp drop, sovereign yields are now trading at their low ranges (2% for the US 10yr and 0.60% for the German 10yr), credit spreads are coming down from their recent year high and emerging markets are benefitting from positive fund flows. The tone of the markets is slowly improving and global threats are diminishing (but for how long?).

Of late, the major issue in credit markets has been the idiosyncratic risk (VW, Glencore, Air France, DB, etc.) and now the Q3 earnings season is set to start and will offer a better picture of how corporates have adapted to the recent turmoil. In the current fragile environment, we recommend taking profits on names that have rebounded from the recent lows or which show expensive valuations, and reinvest the proceeds in new issues that offer interesting yield premiums. In that context, we recommend switching out of General Motors (GM) 1.875% 2019 in EUR and buying the new GM 3.1% 2019 in USD, benefiting from the shorter duration and a pick-up in yield (adjusted for the currency basis).

FIXED INCOMEOUTLOOK

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Credit preferences

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Total return of bond indices YTD

Inflation linked Governments Corporates High yield EM

Like

Neutral

Dislike

Corporate Emerging High-Yield Indexed-linked Governement

-0.22%

0.58%

1.86%

0.76%

0.26%

-1.35%-1.05%

0.80%

1.87%

-2.00%

-1.50%

-1.00%

-0.50%

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

US EU US EU US EU US EU JPM EMBI

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Page 05/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

FIXED INCOMEINVESTMENT IDEAS

SWITCH IDEA: TRADE THE OLD GM IN EUR FOR THE NEW ONE IN USD

Last year we recommended buying the GM 1.875 % 2019 in EUR. Given the new issue GM in USD, we would recommend exchanging the old EUR for the new USD, thus shortening the duration and gaining 20bps yield, adjusted for currency basis.

On the back of the Volkswagen scandal, the whole automobile sector suffered, with equities tumbling and credit spreads widening. The companies most affected were German manufacturers. General

Motors did not suffer as much: spreads did widen but by a smaller margin, of about 50 bps (5yr USD CDS). Before this event, GM bond spreads contracted strongly in response to the 2014 case relating to mechanical flaws discovered between 2003/2011, and which had been overpriced by the market. During its last business conference at the end of last month, the company announced a USD 5.5 bn cost savings program, platform consolidation and development of its luxury segment. The announcement was received very positively by investors.

Switch idea GM

Source: Lombard Odier / Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

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Page 06/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS

With the main indices having rallied 3% to 5% from recent lows, some ST consolidation would not be a surprise given that we are now close to important resistance levels (3300 on the EuroStoxx 50, 2000 on the SP500 and 8800 on the SMI). What follows this first leg of rally will provide an important clue as to what the rest of the year might look like for equity markets. In terms of positioning, we are moderately constructive on the asset class and reiterate our message of selectivity and agility. We would take advantage of the recent rebound to reduce sectors we are not comfortable with in the medium term, which is typically the case for commodities (i.e. Glencore), or stocks, which performed well and look fairly priced at current levels (i.e. AB Foods).

On the other hand, we pound the table again on Healthcare and advise investing in a 3-year USD Leveraged Certificate on Abbott (R), Abbvie (RF) and Merck (R) with a barrier 60% at maturity and participation level of 200% to the basket (delta of 150% at inception). We also believe there is value to extract from European banks (i.e. BNP) and US Tech (i.e. Alphabet) in the coming weeks.

Last but not least, we think the time has come to accumulate Japanese equities, which were not immune to the recent Chinese turmoil, and are therefore offering attractive entry points from a fundamental, technical and valuation perspective: invest in the LO Alpha Japan Fund.

EQUITIESOUTLOOK

Regional preferences

Source: Lombard Odier Investment Strategy, as of 08 October 2015

Japan EM Equities Canada & Australia

Overweight

Neutral

Underweight

Europe Switzerland US

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Major market performances

Index Value 5 days 1 month 3 months YTD

S&P 500 1,995.83 3.9% 1.3% -2.5% -3.1%Euro Stoxx 50 3,232.44 5.3% 0.0% -2.9% 2.7%SMI 8,697.67 2.2% -0.7% -1.7% -3.2%CAC 40 4,685.71 5.9% 1.9% 1.0% 9.7%FTSE 100 6,337.45 4.4% 3.1% -2.4% -3.5%Nikkei 225 18,141.17 2.4% 4.1% -8.1% 4.0%Shanghai SE Comp. 3,143.36 0.0% -0.7% -22.5% -2.8%MSCI Em Ma BRIC 237.54 8.6% 10.7% -9.5% -9.4%Hang Seng 22,367.62 7.3% 5.2% -4.9% -5.2%Bovespa 48,914.32 8.6% 4.6% -5.5% -2.2%Sensex 26,794.89 2.4% 5.8% -3.2% -2.6%Russia 1,679.53 3.2% -2.0% 5.3% 20.3%

Page 7: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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Page 07/20

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IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

EQUITIESINVESTMENT IDEAS

SELL AB FOOD – GBP 3382 (REMOVED FROM RESEARCH LIST – TP GBP 3250)

· It’s time to take profits after the recent outperformance (see chart). Our analyst G. Eggiman removed ABF from the RL.

· AB Foods is up 9% YTD and +26% since its trough on 21 April, outperforming the European retailing sector by a massive 25%. The extraordinary growth story of the Primark brand was a key driver behind ABF’s share performance.

· Following the increased interest in the company, we ended up with a valuation at record-high multiples. In our sum-of-the-parts valuation, we attribute an 18x EV/EBITDA multiple to the Primark division, which generates only 60% of profits. We value other divisions, which feature lower growth or more volatility, at 12x EV/EBITDA (grocery) and 7.5x (sugar, agriculture and ingredients). With almost 18x for the whole company, it is therefore time to take profits.

· We recommend investors switch to Pernod (14% upside), recently added to our RL.

BUY BNP PARIBAS – EUR 73.75 (R – PT 72)

· BNP Paribas management has been strategically bold and also sensible in capital management, and the bank benefits from strong franchises in its three main activities: Retail Banking, CIB and Investment Solutions.

· The bank’s domestic French retail network (50% of activities) is focused on urban, affluent clients and should benefit from the gradual European economic recovery.

· The bank also has a rapidly growing franchise in retail banking overseas. In wholesale banking, BNP is a leader in European fixed income and has a strong global equity derivatives franchise.

· BNP outlined an ambitious set of targets for the CIB division last year. These included 6% p.a. revenue growth to 2016E, largely through balance sheet expansion (e.g. 8% p.a. funded asset growth in Corporate Banking and a 50 bps market share gain in FICC). So far, these objectives have mostly been met or exceeded.

· BNP has a pretty strong solvency ratio with a CET1 ratio of 10.6% (vs a long term target of 10%) and a leverage ratio of 3.7%. The management still has room to increase the leverage ratio in the region of 4% and the CET1 ratio will be strengthened organically by 40 pb/annum.

AB Food

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

BNP Paribas

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Page 8: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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Page 08/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

EQUITIESINVESTMENT IDEAS

BUY ALPHABET (RF – PT 750)

· On 5 October, Google became Alphabet Inc., the holding company bringing together the group’s various activities. Aside from the company name, little has changed. In effect, the number of shares, price, voting rights (for A-Class shares), ISIN, and even Bloomberg ID remain the same. What will, however, change is the level of transparency and detail to which we will have access as of mid-January.

· Alphabet is now going provide disclosure on two distinct divisions: 1) Google “Core” (search engine, Google Maps, YouTube, Android, and Display), and 2) Google “Non-Core”, namely Nest (domotics), Google X (robotics and artificial intelligence), Calico (“Life Science”), and Google Ventures.

· First, this is going to enable Google to set its decision-making process in a more disciplined fashion, notably as regards capital allocation. Second, it is going to give the market the opportunity to better value the group: the core business currently trades at a discount versus peers, while non-core activities are simply unknown and seen as contributing negatively to the group’s earnings. Third and lastly, this opens up the way for possible spin-offs of certain non-core activities over the longer term.

· Conclusion: We would buy ahead of 15 October results, as the company enjoys a strong momentum in its Internet business and will enjoy significant triggers in the coming months.

GLENCORE GBP 121 (REMOVED FROM RESEARCH LIST)

· Under our base case scenario/spot prices, the company, if able to execute on the asset disposals, should stay below 3x net debt to EBITDA, which will ensure investment grade and thus alleviate fears that the Marketing business could face a strong increase in its cost of financing.

· Given the uncertain commodity price outlook and the timing of the asset sales, there is a vicious circle, under which Glencore has to further reduce net debt from the initial USD 20 bn target, and in a shorter term horizon, or get downgraded to “junk” with its cost of financing increasing to unsustainable levels.

· Despite Glencore’s liquidity position, the stock has turned into a highly speculative instrument. Hence, given the high level of short-term uncertainties and the unclear asymmetry in the risk/reward profile combined with heightened volatility, our analyst removed Glencore from the Research List .

· Our exit price target of 120 p is based on a sum-of-the-parts, which assumes 0.8x NPV for industrial assets and 0.5x NPV for Marketing.

· Take advantage of the recent short squeeze on the commodities sector to sell Glencore.

Alphabet chart

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Glencore

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Page 9: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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Page 09/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

EQUITIESINVESTMENT IDEAS

FOLLOW-UP ON SGS – CHF 1808 (R – PT 1985)

· Competitor Bureau Veritas has announced a rather ambitious and positive 5-year plan. Indeed, it believes that the global industry offers potential sales revenues of over USD 200 bn per year, and that the focus will lie on those segments that will be able to generate organic growth of some 5-7%.

· Importantly, SGS will also hold its investor days on 29–30 October, when the new CEO’s strategy will be presented. In office since March, the new CEO has a very good reputation, and brings with him the successes of his work in the Consumer Testing and Industrial Services divisions, respectively. Synergies and group streamlining are his priorities, as a means of protecting margins.

· We are maintaining our confident and optimistic bias in favour of this excellent company. SGS has a solid balance sheet and dividend returns of more than 4%.

· Technically, the stock is challenging its resistance of CHF 1,800. A breakout would initially open the door to CHF 1,870–1,900.

· We advise patience and recommend holders to keep the stock in their portfolios.

SGS chart

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Page 10: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

For illustration purpose only. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.IMPORTANT INFORMATION – This marketing communication is provided for information purposes only and it is not a recommendation to subscribe to and does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to or an offer to buy the Fund’s shares. Any acquisition may only be made on the basis of the official documents of the Fund each in their final form. The articles of association, the prospectus, the Key Investor Information Document, the subscription form and the most recent annual and semi-annual reports are the only official offering documents of the Fund’s shares (the “Offering Documents”). For a comprehensive understanding of all of the applicable characteristics and risk factors, please refer to the Offering Documents. The Offering Documents are available on www.loim.com and can be requested free of charge at the registered office of the Fund.

Page 10/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

FUND’S STRATEGYLO FUNDS–ALPHA JAPAN (USD HEDGED), P Important information – The Fund referenced in this communication is only registered for public offering in certain jurisdictions

TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE RECENT CORRECTION TO INVEST IN JAPAN

Shinzo Abe’s return to power marked a significant turnaround for Japan with a clear breakaway from the “lost decades” that started in the early 1990s. Although the economy is recovering moderately, inflation targets have not yet been reached, meaning Governor Kuroda could announce an increase in stimulus as soon as the end of October. On the equity front, while the weak yen has played a significant role in boosting profitability, a second feature of the Japanese strengthening is a greater focus on corporate governance, shareholders and returns from companies.

The recent turmoil in China spread to its main trading partners and Japan was not immune: it suffered a double digit market correction (-13.45%) in Q3. Recently we confirmed our country O/W and would be comfortable increasing our allocation at current levels.

The LO Alpha Japan (USD Hedged), P fund (+ 1.12% YTD) should be well-positioned to take advantage of this opportunity. Its portfolio is comprised of 55-80 stocks with the top ten typically representing 30-40% of the Net Asset Value (NAV). Lombard Odier has partnered with Alpha Japan Asset Advisors, a company comprising leading Japanese stock-picking experts. Stocks are selected for their fundamental merits over the medium to long term, and actively managed to benefit from sector rotations and flow reversals, a feature of the Japanese equity market.

FUND FACTS

Domicile Luxembourg/SICAVFund inception date 22 July 2008Registered in AT, BE, CH, DE, ES,

FR, GB, IT, LI, LU,NL, SE, SG

Management fee 0.75%Distribution fee 0.75%

NET PERFORMANCE IN USD*

Fund Benchmark

YTD 1.12% 1.75%1 month -6.68% -7.65%3 months -12.23% -13.08%1 year 5.40% 7.92%3 years 78.14% 99.27%Total return 62.13% 83.50%

Data as of 30 September 2015. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.* Net/gross of fees

RISK AND REWARD PROFILE

1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Low High

For more details about risk, see related section “Risk Factors Annex” of the prospectus.

REPRESENTATIVE

Austria - Representative: Erste Bank der oesterreichischen Sparkassen AG. Belgium - Representative: CACEIS Belgium S.A. France - Centralising agent: CACEIS Bank France S.A. Germany - German Information and Paying Agent: DekaBank Deutsche Girozentrale. Italy - Paying agents: Société Générale Securities Services S.p.A., State Street Bank S.p.A., Banca Sella Holding S.p.A., Allfunds Bank S.A., Italian Branch, BNP Paribas Securities Services (with its registered office in Paris). Liechtenstein - Representative: LGT Bank AG. Netherlands - Representative: Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Ltd, Netherlands Branch. Spain - Representative: Allfunds Bank, S.A. Switzerland - Representative: Lombard Odier Asset Management (Switzerland) SA; Paying agent: Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd. United Kingdom - Representative: Lombard Odier Asset Management (Europe) Limited.

Net performance and annual performance in USDMay 16, 2011 - September 30, 2015

Source: Lombard Odier, as of 30 September 2015

Page 11: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

1 (not issued): All terms and conditions mentioned here are set out for illustrative purposes only and will be confirmed or adjusted, if the Product is issued, in the final documentation of the Product prepared by the Issuer and setting forth the complete and legally binding terms and conditions of the Product (including the simplified prospectus according to Swiss law) (the “Original Documentation”). There is no assurance that the Product will be issued on the basis of the above indicative terms and no specific issuer shall be obliged to issue any security or instrument on such indicative terms. A copy of the Original Documentation and any other documentation on the Product may be obtained free of charge from your Relationship Manager.2 (issued): For further information on the Product, please refer to the final terms of the Product and any other documentation of the Issuer setting forth the complete and legally binding terms and conditions of the Product (the “Original Documentation”). These documents are available free of charge from Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 11/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

In Switzerland, a structured product does not constitute a collective investment scheme governed by the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (“CISA”) and is, therefore, not subject to the authorization or supervision by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (“FINMA”). Note that the investor bears default risk of the Issuer (see section “General Risks” at the back of this document).

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

STRUCTURED PRODUCTSLEVERAGE CERTIFICATE ON BIOTECH/PHARMA STOCKS 1

200% participation in the positive basket performance while offering a buffer of 40% on the “worst of” at maturity

The healthcare sector has been severely hit over the last couple of weeks amid fears of a Chinese slowdown and US government control on drug pricing (i.e. Clinton’s comments). This sell-off needs to be put into context, as healthcare has outperformed over the last five years and a majority of generalist portfolio managers have taken profits. The correction constitutes a buying opportunity for long-term investors, since the business is doing well, pipelines are stronger than ever and management boards are much more disciplined in terms of capital allocation.

We advise investing in a three-year USD leverage certificate on Abbott (R), Abbvie (RF) and Merck (R) with a 60% barrier at maturity (conditional protection) and a participation level of 200% in the basket (delta of 150% at inception).

UNDERLYING ASSETS

Bloomberg Ticker Strike Date Reference Price Strike Level (60%)

ABT US 1 13.10.2015 100% 60%

ABBV US 2 13.10.2015 100% 60%

MRK US 3 13.10.2015 100% 60%

1 Abbott Laboratories 2 Abbvie3 Merck & Co

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 September 2015

Abbott Laboratories

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Abbvie

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

Merck & Co

Page 12: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

1 (not issued): All terms and conditions mentioned here are set out for illustrative purposes only and will be confirmed or adjusted, if the Product is issued, in the final documentation of the Product prepared by the Issuer and setting forth the complete and legally binding terms and conditions of the Product (including the simplified prospectus according to Swiss law) (the “Original Documentation”). There is no assurance that the Product will be issued on the basis of the above indicative terms and no specific issuer shall be obliged to issue any security or instrument on such indicative terms. A copy of the Original Documentation and any other documentation on the Product may be obtained free of charge from your Relationship Manager.2 (issued): For further information on the Product, please refer to the final terms of the Product and any other documentation of the Issuer setting forth the complete and legally binding terms and conditions of the Product (the “Original Documentation”). These documents are available free of charge from Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

In Switzerland, a structured product does not constitute a collective investment scheme governed by the Swiss Collective Investment Schemes Act (“CISA”) and is, therefore, not subject to the authorization or supervision by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (“FINMA”). Note that the investor bears default risk of the Issuer (see section “General Risks” at the back of this document).

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

STRUCTURED PRODUCTSLEVERAGE CERTIFICATE ON BIOTECH/PHARMA STOCKS 1

KEY CHARACTERISTICS

SVSP/EUSIPA Outperformance Bonus Certificates (1330) Trading UnitsCategory Participation Strike NAIssuer External, in Lombard Odier’s approved issuers Upside Participation 200%G2 (Lombard Odier internal name)

NA Barrier Level 60% at maturity

ISIN NA Issue Date 13 October 2015Valoren NA Payment Date 27 October 2015Asset Class Equity Maturity Date 15 October 2018Currency USD Redemption Date 29 October 2018FX Hedge NA Delivery CashInitial Price 1000 Liquidity Daily

HOW DOES IT WORK

The product provides a 200% upside participation in the underlying basket (equally weighted) while offering a 40% buffer on the “worst of” at maturity.

AUTOMATIC EARLY REDEMPTION

NA

POSSIBLE PAYOUTS AT MATURITY:

· If none of the underlying assets close below 60% at maturity, you will receive 100% of the invested capital in cash plus 200% participation in the upside of the underlying basket.

· If one of the underlying assets closes below 60% at maturity, you will receive the final level of the worst-performing underlying asset in cash.

GUARANTEE

Capital is at risk if one of the underlyings loses more than 60% at maturity.

GENERAL BENEFITS & GENERAL RISKS

General benefits: · If all the underlying assets are above the barrier level at maturity

date, the investor will participate in the positive performance of the underlying basket at 200%. In this case the final redemption amount is at least equal to 100%.

· One of the underlying asset needs to fall by 40% or more from its reference price at maturity date before your invested capital may be subject to a loss.

· This investment outperforms a direct investment in the underlying basket if it trades flat to slightly negative over the term of the product.

General Risks · Investing in this product represents a potential loss similar to a

direct investment in the worst-performing underlying asset and could thus result in a total loss of the invested capital. If the final level of the worst-performing underlying asset at maturity date is zero, you will lose your invested capital.

· You are fully exposed to the default risk of the issuer (see “General risks” section on the next page). In the worst-case scenario, a default of the issuer could lead to the loss of the entire invested capital.

· You are aware that if one of the underlying assets trades at or below the respective barrier level at maturity, the capital is at risk. You may lose some or all of the invested capital as you are fully exposed to any decline in the level of the worst-performing underlying asset. You will not receive the benefit of dividends or other income that may be paid on the underlying asset.

· The lead manager intends, but is not obliged, to provide a daily (off-exchange) secondary market under normal market conditions. The assessment of normal market conditions and the provision of a secondary market are at the issuer / lead manager’s discretion. In the case of listed notes, exchange rules should be followed where listed. By selling in the secondary market you may receive less than the capital invested.

Page 13: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

HEDGE FUNDSQUARTERLY REVIEWINVESTMENT HIGHLIGHT

HEDGE FUNDS DECLINE OVER THE QUARTER BUT OUTPERFORM GLOBAL EQUITIES

The combination of Chinese growth fears and the uncertainty about the FED lift-off that ultimately did not happen created a very volatile environment. Biotech stocks in the US were particularly hard hit. As a result, Q3 2015 proved to be the weakest quarter for risk assets since Q3 2011. Volatility spiked to the highest levels since September 2011. Hedge funds were not spared from this market volatility, but generally lost much less than global equity indices.

The HFRI Fund Weighted Index was down -3.77% vs. -8.45% for MSCI World. Equity market-neutral and macro strategies (especially CTAs) managed to post positive returns.

Alpha risk managers such as those for macro and equity market-neutral strategies were on average the better performers. Macro managers reduced risk aggressively entering August and some even managed to turn their books quickly to short the Chinese equity market. Getting long volatility through call options on the VIX or straddles on the CNH are telling examples of how they generated profits. The USD bias is now mainly expressed against EM currencies, whereas in the first half of the year it was mainly against the EUR and JPY. Long exposures to European and Japanese equities were cut completely. CTAs generally made money on short crude oil and long bonds positions.

Market risk – Equity long/short managers were generally down on the quarter, with managers with the largest net exposures experiencing the most significant drawdowns. While it does not explain the whole story, exposure to healthcare was a major detractor over Q3. The sell-off in biotech stocks hurt many of their long positions as the market began to sell indiscriminately in the sector. This was due to a tweet from Hillary Clinton on potential drug price controls.

Liquidity risk – Event-driven managers incurred losses as the market generally sold off and credit spreads widened. Merger spreads also widened, resulting in portfolio losses. However, managers do not believe there are significant fundamental risks to the global economy and remain convinced of the attractiveness of many deals.

Performance of main HFRI indices

Source: Bloomberg, as of 07 October 2015

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

BarCapGlobal

Agg. Hdg$

HFRIMacro

HFRIRelativeValue

HFRIFund

WeightedComposite

HFRIEventDriven

HFRIEquityHedge

MSCIWorldND$

MTD QTD YTD

Biotech stocks sold off at the end of Q3

Source: Bloomberg, as of 30 September 2015

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

6/30

/201

5

7/7/

2015

7/14

/201

5

7/21

/201

5

7/28

/201

5

8/4/

2015

8/11

/201

5

8/18

/201

5

8/25

/201

5

9/1/

2015

9/8/

2015

9/15

/201

5

9/22

/201

5

9/29

/201

5

Nasdaq Biotech Index

S&P500 ND

Traders have reduced bets against the EUR and JPY

Source: CFTC, Bloomberg, as of 07 October 2015

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

Dec

-14

Jan-

15

Feb-

15

Mar

-15

Mar

-15

Apr

-15

May

-15

May

-15

Jun-

15

Jul-

15

Jul-

15

Aug

-15

Sep-

15

Sep-

15

Contracts

Bearish bets on EuroBearish bets on JPY

Page 14: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Page 14/20

WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

CURRENCIESOUTLOOK

PORTFOLIO CONSIDERATIONS

EURUSD: A more neutral bias ahead

Near-term risk for the pair relies more on the FOMC outlook than on the ECB. Our Investment Committee decided to reduce foreign currency hedges in USD profiles, as it has downgraded its view on USD to Neutral. Indeed, the dovish stance adopted by the Fed, combined with healthier trade balances and economic conditions in other developed markets, is likely to limit the upside for the months to come.

The EURUSD should thus evolve in the 1.10–1.15 range, while USDJPY will stabilise around 120. When it comes to the Swiss Franc, interest rate differentials, diverging economic dynamics and valuations make current hedges less consistent. However, the

potential for further depreciation against the uuro appears limited, notably with the SNB short position.

Accordingly, the Committee has decided to reduce the hedges in USD profiles by half, from 50% to 25%, while keeping the current positioning in CHF portfolios (hedge half of EUR and GBP exposures) unchanged.

Currency preferences

Source: Lombard Odier Investment Strategy, as of 08 October 2015

JPY GBP

Overweight

Neutral

Underweight

USD EUR CHF

Source: Bloomberg, as of 08 October 2015

FX performance and target

Price 5 days YTD 3m target* 6m target*

EURUSD 1.1289 0.8% -6.7% 1.1000 1.1500EURCHF 1.0932 0.1% 10.0% 1.0200 1.0100EURJPY 135.2900 -0.8% 7.1% 134.0000 138.0000EURGBP 0.7364 0.5% 5.4% 0.7400 0.7500GBPUSD 1.5329 1.3% -1.6% 1.4900 1.5300USDJPY 119.8500 0.1% -0.1% 122.0000 120.0000AUDUSD 0.7185 2.2% -12.1% 0.7100 0.6900USDCHF 0.9684 0.9% 2.7% 0.9300 0.8800GBPCHF 1.4845 -0.4% 4.3% 1.3857 1.3464

* targets are indicative and from our FX trading team.

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Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

CURRENCIESINVESTMENT HIGHLIGHT

EURUSD: EXPECT A 1.10-1.15 TRADING RANGE.

From a portfolio management perspective, and as we enter the last quarter of the year, we cannot afford to take the risk of further weakness on the greenback, which, after this difficult Q3 for risky assets, remains one of the last positive contributors in terms of YTD performance.

The risk of experiencing another wave of volatility should the Fed tightening cycle become more blurry is real, and we therefore keep our tactical recommendations to buy USD put options to hedge over-exposure to the USD (FX volatility remains attractive, with 3 months’ EURUSD implied volatility at 10%).

A long-call option EURUSD strike 1.15 expiry in three months (where October and December FOMC meetings will be covered for any surprises) indicatively costs 1% (ref. spot at 1.1300). Based on our grid allocation, EUR balanced investors willing to hedge (for example) their entire USD exposure (or 13.1%) would have to spend only 0.15% of their YTD performance to be hedged from 1.15 until 31 December.

EURUSD spread of 2Y Swap rates in bps

Source: Lombard Odier, as of 08 October 2015

Investor positioning

Source: Lombard Odier, as of 08 October 2015

Page 16: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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WEEKLY INVESTMENT NOTES

IMPORTANT INFORMATION - MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATION

Please see important information at the end of this document · Authorised for distribution in Switzerland only

lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

Amount Amount of a bond issue, expressed in millions of units of the currency.

Amt Amount issued, expressed in millions of currency.

“Barbell” A “barbell” bond investment strategy allocates the entire portfolio to short-term and long-term bonds in order to reduce the portfolio’s sensitivity to an increase in interest rates. The investor therefore benefits from higher income from long-term bonds, while their exposure to short-term instruments provides security and flexibility.

BOE Bank of England

BoJ Bank of Japan

Balance of trade Difference between the value of exports and imports of goods and services of a country.

Ccy Currency.

Coupon (Cpn) Paid interest in percent. The letter “s” indicates it is paid semi-annually.

Cumulative days Number of cumulative days carrying an accrued coupon.

Current account balance (or current account) Net balance of a country’s trade with third countries, integrating the value of exports of goods and services less that of imports and the balance of capital transfers.

D Minimum piece or increment (in thousands).

Days Number of accrued days.

Deflation Environment in which consumer prices generally fall. The opposite situation (inflation) is far more common.

ECB European Central Bank.

EM Emerging Markets.

EMBI Emerging Market Bond Index, as defined by JP Morgan.

EPS Earnings Per Share

Expected outperformance The security is expected to do better than its peers in terms of total return in a 12-month time horizon.

Expected underperformance The security is expected to do worse than its peers in terms of total return in a 12-month time horizon.

FCF Free cash flow

Federal Reserve US central bank, commonly known as the Fed.

FINMA Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority.

FOMC Federal Open Market Committee

FRN Floating-rate note.

GDP Abbreviation of Gross Domestic Product (total wealth produced by a country).

Govt spread Yield spread versus government bonds.

High yield bond rated below investment grade. These bonds have a higher risk of default or other adverse credit events, but typically pay higher yields than better quality bonds in order to make them attractive to investors.

Issuer Entity that placed the relevant bond on the market.

Issue year Combined with the day and month of the maturity date, gives the issue date of a bond.

GLOSSARY

Inflation linked bonds (ILBs) Primarily issued by sovereign governments, such as the U.S. and the U.K., ILBs are indexed to inflation so that the principal and interest payments rise and fall with the rate of inflation. Inflation can significantly erode investors’ purchasing power, and ILBs can potentially provide protection from inflation’s effects. ILBs may also offer additional benefits in a broader portfolio context.

IP Industrial Production

Iss Issuance year, use day and month of maturity date to find the issue date.

Key rate Overnight rate of interest, set by the central bank.

Libor Series of money market reference rates for different currencies produced by the British Bankers’ Association, reflecting the average rate at which a sample of large banks based in London lend to other large banks without the loan being guaranteed by securities.

Lower Tier 2 included A debt that is subordinated to senior debt buts ranks ahead of Upper Tier 2 and Tier 1 capital.

Maturity Redemption date of the issue.

MoM Month on Month

M. Dur Modified duration, gives the weighted average term to maturity of the future cash flows, sensibility to interest rates movements.

Name Name of issuer.

NAV Abbreviation of Net Asset Value, or book value

Page 17: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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lombard odier · weekly investment notes – switzerland · 09 october 2015

GLOSSARY

ND/Ebitda Net Debt To EBITDA Ratio. A measurement of leverage, calculated as a company’s interest-bearing liabilities minus cash or cash equivalents, divided by its EBITDA. The net debt to EBITDA ratio is a debt ratio that shows how many years it would take for a company to pay back its debt if net debt and EBITDA are held constant. If a company has more cash than debt, the ratio can be negative.

NFPs Non Farm Payrolls

Non-IG Non investment grade issuers which therefore have a rating of BB+ or below.

ParCurve Bench-mark yield curve.

PBOC Public Bank of China

PMI Purchasers Managing Index

PPE Abbreviation of “Propriété Par Etages” (condominium ownership).

Price Indicative closing price.

Price Target A projected price level as stated by an investment analyst or advisor. A price that, if achieved, would result in a trader recognizing the best possible outcome for his or her investment. This is the price at which the trader would like to exit his or her existing position so that he or she price target.

Quantitative Easing (QE) An unconventional monetary policy in which a central bank purchases government securities or other securities from the market in order to lower interest rates and increase the money supply. Quantitative easing increases the money supply by flooding financial institutions with capital in an effort to promote increased lending and liquidity. Quantitative easing is considered when short-term interest rates are at or approaching zero, and does not involve the printing of new banknotes

R Recommended positioning or issuer.

Rating Composite rating (Fitch, Moody’s and Standard & Poors).

ROE Return on Equity

Sec. N° Isin identification number.

Front, short, intermediary, long, very long segments 1-3 years, 3-5 years, 5-7 years, 7-10 years, 10+ years maturities.

Settl Settlement date at subscription.

SNB Abbreviation of Swiss National Bank.

Soft comm. Soft commodities

SPI Swiss Performance Index.

Swap Spread between the yield of the bond and the yield from the appropriate swap curve.

Underlined/Red: Avoid A security which has a significant probability of default in a 12 months time horizon.

Tapering Gradual reduction of the Fed’s asset purchase programme.

WTI West Texas Intermediate.

Yield (YTM) Yield to maturity, recognize time value of money.

Yield curve Graphical representation of the reference interest rates for each maturity. The difference between the yields on long- and short-term maturities indicates the steepness of the curve.

YoY Year on Year

Page 18: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

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CONTRIBUTORS

Bader Alidra [email protected]

Rolf Baertschi [email protected]

David Balmon, CFA [email protected]

Delphine Barbaud, CFA [email protected]

Fares Benouari, CFA [email protected]

Gaelle Boucher [email protected]

Nicolas Dondolini, CFA [email protected]

Christophe Gautier [email protected]

Dominique Goy, CFA [email protected]

Filip Van Hoomissen [email protected]

Adrien Ludmann [email protected]

Yvan Mencattini, CFPI [email protected]

Elton Mendes De Brito [email protected]

Aurélien Michaud [email protected]

Nordin Semlal, CFPI [email protected]

Daniel Spichiger [email protected]

Jérome Strecker [email protected]

David Vacherand-Denand [email protected]

Page 19: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

STRUCTURE PRODUCTS SPECIFIC DISCLAIMERGeneral RisksMarket Risk: During its lifetime, the performance of the Product depends on the general global economic situation along with the political and economic factors in the specific countries. In particular, any changes in market prices (e.g., interest rates, stock prices, foreign exchange rates or commodity prices) can have a negative effect on the valuation of the Product. Investing in this Product represents a potential loss similar to a direct investment in the Underlying Assets and could thus result in a total loss of the invested capital. If the Underlying Assets’ performance on Maturity Date is higher than 100% plus the Coupon, the investor will suffer from an opportunity loss (direct investment in the Underlying Assets).Credit Risk: This product is a type of debt instrument, which is a loan to the Issuer. It bears the risk of default of the Issuer and, if any, of the Guarantor. The credit risk of the Issuer and, if any, of the Guarantor may change during the term of the product. The Issuer and, if any, the Guarantor are rated either by Moody’s, Standard&Poor’s and/or Fitch. Please refer to the rating of these agencies to assess the credit risk of the Issuer and, if any, of the Guarantor. This product represents direct unsecured and unsubordinated obligations of the Issuer.Currency Risk: If an investment is denominated in a currency other than the investor’s base currency, changes in the rate of exchange may have an adverse effect on value, price or income.

FeesThe Issuer may pay a fee up to 2% of the Issue Price (the “Structuring Fee”), a portion of which may be allocated to distributors as Placement Fee. Further details in this respect is provided in the Original Documentation. The investor acknowledges and agrees that such Fees are retained by their recipient and will not be passed on to the investor.

THE LOMBARD ODIER EQUITY RESEARCH RATING SYSTEMFinancial RatingThe financial rating aims to indicate the expected performance of a security over 12-18 months relative to its sector universe benchmark. It is the final step of an analytical process based first on company fundamentals, then on valuation and momentum indicators. It is expressed as follows:· Research List (R): we expect the stock to post a 12-18 month performance above that of its sector universe benchmark.· Research List – Focus (RF): designates the analyst’s best pick within his or her universe, again with a 12-18 month view. · Not Rated (NR): the stock does not figure among our favorites within its sector universe.In parallel, for each stock rated R or RF, we issue a 12-month price target.

Extra-financial RatingSince 1998, Lombard Odier has also produced extra-financial ratings for companies within a socially responsible investment framework. These ratings are based on a three-pillar approach:· Environmental: group-wide policy, international certifications, product innovation.· Social: service quality, health & safety, training, ethics, community involvement.· Governance: structure, independence, voting rights, compensation, controversy management.Each pillar is given a score (A: best D: worst) following a proprietary methodology last updated in 2012. These ratings are partly based on our main information provider, Sustainalytics.

BOND RATING SYSTEM (SOURCE BLOOMBERG COMPOSITE)AAA: A bond rated “AAA” has the highest rating assigned by Bloomberg Composite. The issuer’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the bond is EXTREMELY STRONG / AA: A bond rated “AA” differs from the highest rated bonds only in small degree. The issuer’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the bond is VERY STRONG./ A: A bond rated “A” is somewhat more susceptible to the adverse effects of changes in circumstances and economic conditions than bonds in higher rated categories. However, the issuer’s capacity to meet its financial commitment on the bond is still STRONG. / BBB: A bond rated “BBB” exhibits ADEQUATE protection parameters. However, adverse economic conditions or changing circumstances are more likely to lead to a weakened capacity of the issuer to meet its financial commitment on the bond. / BB+ to CCC: From and including BB+ to CCC, the bond is vulnerable to nonpayment. In the event of adverse business, financial, or economic conditions, the issuer is not likely to have the capacity to meet its financial commitment on the bond. / Plus (+) or minus (-): The ratings from “AA” to “CCC” may be modified by the addition of a plus or minus sign to show relative standing within the major rating categories.

IMPORTANT INFORMATION – MATERIAL WITH NON PERSONALISED RECOMMENDATIONS This document is issued by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd or an entity of the Group (hereinafter “Lombard Odier”). It is not intended for distribution, publication, or use in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, or use would be unlawful, nor is it aimed at any person or entity to whom it would be unlawful to address such a document.This document is provided for information purposes only. It does not constitute an offer or a recommendation to subscribe to, purchase, sell or hold any security or financial instrument. It contains the opinions of Lombard Odier, as at the date of issue. These opinions and the information herein contained do not take into account an individual’s specific circumstances, objectives, or needs. No representation is made that any investment or strategy is suitable or appropriate to individual circumstances or that any investment or strategy constitutes a personal recommendation to any investor. Each investor must make his/her own independent decisions regarding any securities or financial instruments mentioned herein. Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. Lombard Odier does not provide tax advice. Therefore you must verify the above and all other information provided in the document or otherwise review it with your external tax advisors. Investment are subject to a variety of risks. Before entering into any transaction, an investor should consult his/her investment advisor and, where necessary, obtain independent professional advice in respect of risks, as well as any legal, regulatory, credit, tax, and accounting consequences. The information and analysis contained herein are based on sources considered to be reliable. However, Lombard Odier does not guarantee the timeliness, accuracy, or completeness of the information contained in this document, nor does it accept any liability for any loss or damage resulting from its use. All information and opinions as well as the prices, market valuations and calculations indicated herein may change without notice. Past performance is no guarantee of current or future returns, and the investor may receive back less than he invested. The investments mentioned in this document may carry risks that are difficult to quantify and integrate into an investment assessment. In general, products such as equities, bonds, securities lending, forex, or money market instruments bear risks, which are higher in the case of derivative, structured, and private equity products; these are aimed solely at investors who are able to understand their nature and characteristics and to and bear their associated risks. On request, Lombard Odier will be pleased to provide investors with more detailed information concerning risks associated with given instruments.The value of any investment in a currency other than the base currency of a portfolio is subject to the foreign exchange rates. These rates may fluctuate and adversely affect the value of the investment when it is realized and converted back into the investor’s base currency. The liquidity of an investment is subject to supply and demand. Some products may not have a well-established secondary market or in extreme market conditions may be difficult to value, resulting in price volatility and making it difficult to obtain a price to dispose of the asset.If opinions from financial analysts are contained herein, such analysts attest that all of the opinions expressed accurately reflect their personal views about any given instruments. In order to ensure their independence, financial analysts are expressly prohibited from owning any securities that belong to the research universe they cover. Lombard Odier may hold positions in securities as referred to in this document for and on behalf of its clients and/or such securities may be included in the portfolios of investment funds as managed by Lombard Odier or affiliated Group companies.Switzerland: This document has been issued approved for issue in Switzerland by Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd Geneva, a bank and securities dealer authorized and regulated by the Swiss Financial Market Supervisory Authority (FINMA).United States: Neither this document nor any copy thereof may be sent, taken into, or distributed in the United States or given to any US person.This document may not be reproduced (in whole or in part), transmitted, modified, or used for any public or commercial purpose without the prior written permission of Lombard Odier. © 2015 Bank Lombard Odier & Co Ltd – all rights reserved

Page 20: Weekly Investment Notes - 2015.10.09

SWITZERLAND

GENEVABank Lombard Odier & Co LtdRue de la Corraterie 11 · 1204 Genève · SuissePrivate Bank regulated by the FINMA.E-mail: [email protected] Odier Asset Management (Switzerland) SAAvenue des Morgines 6 · 1213 Petit-Lancy · SuisseManagement Company regulated by the FINMA.E-mail: [email protected]

FRIBOURGBanque Lombard Odier & Cie SA · Bureau de FribourgRue de la Banque 3 · 1700 Fribourg · SuisseE-mail: [email protected]

LAUSANNEBank Lombard Odier & Co LtdPlace St-François 11 · 1003 Lausanne · SuisseE-mail: [email protected]

LUGANOBanca Lombard Odier & Co SA · Agenzia di LuganoVia Vegezzi 6B · 6900 Lugano · SvizzeraE-mail: [email protected]

VEVEYBanque Lombard Odier & Cie SA · Agence de VeveyRue Jean-Jacques Rousseau 5 · 1800 Vevey · SuisseE-mail: [email protected]

ZURICHBank Lombard Odier & Co LtdUtoquai 31 · Postfach 1457 · 8032 Zürich · SchweizE-mail: [email protected]

EUROPE

AMSTERDAMLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Netherlands branchHerengracht 466 · 1017 CA Amsterdam · NederlandCredit institution regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) and the Nederlandsche Bank (DNB).E-mail: [email protected]

BRUSSELSLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. Luxembourg · Belgium branchAvenue Louise 81 · Box 12 · 1050 Brussels · BelgiumCredit institution regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF), the Banque nationale de Belgique (BNB) and the Financial Services and Markets Authority (FSMA) E-mail: [email protected]

GIBRALTARLombard Odier & Cie (Gibraltar) LimitedSuite 921 Europort · P.O. Box 407 · GibraltarBank supervised by the Gibraltar Financial Services Commission (FSC).E-mail: [email protected]

LONDONLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · UK BranchQueensberry House · 3 Old Burlington Street · London W1S 3AB · United KingdomThe bank is authorized and regulated by the CSSF in Luxembourg and its branch in the UK by the Prudential Regulation Authority and the Financial Conduct Authority. Registered in Luxembourg No. B169 907E-mail: [email protected] Odier Asset Management (Europe) LimitedQueensberry House · 3 Old Burlington Street · London W1S 3AB · United KingdomE-mail: [email protected]

LUXEMBOURGLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. 5, allée Scheffer · 2520 Luxembourg · LuxembourgCredit institution regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSFF).E-mail: [email protected]

MADRIDLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Sucursal en EspañaPaseo de la Castellana 66 · 28046 Madrid · EspañaCredit institution regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF), Banco de España and the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV).E-mail: [email protected] Odier Gestión (España) S.G.I.I.C., S.A.U.Paseo de la Castellana 66 · 28046 Madrid · EspañaManagement Company supervised by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV).E-mail: [email protected]

MOSCOWBank Lombard Odier & Co · Representative Office Moscow82 Sadovnicheskaya Street · 115 035 Moscow · Russian FederationE-mail: [email protected]

PARISLombard Odier (Europe) S.A. · Succursale en France8, rue Royale · 75008 Paris · France RCS PARIS B 803 905 157. Credit institution under Luxembourg law regulated by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) - Business permit No. 3/12.Registered in Luxembourg No. B169 907.Insurance company authorised by the Commissariat aux assurances (CAA) No. 2014 CM002. The registration with the Commissariat aux assurances can be verified at www.orias.fr.E-mail: [email protected] Odier Gestion (France)8, rue Royale · 75008 Paris · FranceRCS PARIS B 434.256.392. Limited company with an Executive Board and Supervisory Board and capital of 4,250,000 euros.Portfolio management company approved by the Autorité des Marchés Financiers (no. GP O1-011).E-mail: [email protected]

MIDDLE EAST, AMERICAS, ASIA | PACIFIC

BERMUDALombard Odier (Bermuda) LimitedLombard Odier Trust (Bermuda) Limited3rd Floor, Victoria Place · 31 Victoria Street · Hamilton HM 10 · BermudaE-mail: [email protected]

DUBAIBank Lombard Odier & Co · Representative Office DubaiThe Fairmont – 25th Floor · Sheikh Zayed Road · P.O. Box 212240 · Dubai · UAEE-mail: [email protected]

HONG KONGLombard Odier (Hong Kong) Limited3901, Two Exchange Square · 8 Connaught Place · Central · Hong KongE-mail: [email protected]

MONTREALLombard Odier & Cie (Canada), Limited Partnership1000 Sherbrooke Street West · Suite 2200 · Montreal (Quebec) · Canada H3A 3R7E-mail: [email protected]

NASSAULombard Odier & Cie (Bahamas) LimitedGoodman’s Bay Corporate Centre · West Bay Street · P.O. Box N-4938 Nassau · BahamasE-mail: [email protected]

PANAMALombard Odier & Cie (Bahamas) Limited · Representative Office in PanamaOceania Business Plaza Tower 2000 · unit 38-D · Boulevard Pacifica, Urb. Punta Pacifica · Panama

SINGAPORELombard Odier (Singapore) Ltd.9 Raffles Place · Republic Plaza #46-02 · Singapore 048619E-mail: [email protected]

TOKYOLombard Odier Trust (Japan) LimitedIzumi Garden Tower 41F · 1-6-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku · Tokyo 106-6041 · JapanE-mail: [email protected]

01.2015

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