Weekly Cat Reportcatastropheinsight.aon.com/reports/20200911-1-cat-alert.pdf · Weekly Cat Report 3 Record heat spawns more destructive U.S. wildfires The combination of record heat,

Weekly Cat Report September 11, 2020

Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Event Impacted Areas FatalitiesDamaged Structures and/or Filed Claims

PreliminaryEconomic Loss (USD)*

Page

Wildfire United States 12+ Thousands Billions 3

Typhoon Haishen Japan, Korean Peninsula 4+ 2,000+ 100s of millions 12

Flooding Nigeria, Niger, Burkina Faso, Senegal 64+ 60,000+ 10s of millions 17

Flooding Pakistan 5+ Hundreds Unknown 18

Flooding India 50+ 5,000+ Millions 18

Severe Weather United States 0 Thousands Millions 18

Flooding Algeria 1+ Hundreds Millions 18

*Please note that these estimates are preliminary and subject to change. In some instances, initial estimates may be significantly adjusted as losses develop over time. This data is provided as an initial view of the potential financial impact from a recently completed or ongoing event based on early available assessments.

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: http://catastropheinsight.aon.com

Weekly Cat Report 3

Record heat spawns more destructive U.S. wildfires The combination of record heat, exceptionally dry conditions, and strong offshore winds aided in a significant expansion of wildfire activity across parts of the Western U.S. during the first 10 days of September. The fires were particularly damaging and impactful in California, Oregon, Washington, Utah, and Colorado. At least 10 fire-related fatalities were confirmed in California since the fire siege began in mid-August. Fires in California have now left roughly 6,000 structures damaged or destroyed, with at least 1,000 more destroyed in Oregon and Washington. The fires were enhanced on September 7/8 by a strong cold front that pushed across the western two-thirds of the country and spawned high winds that rapidly accelerated new ignition and ember spread. These high winds, which topped hurricane-force, also caused notable damage in parts of Utah and Idaho. Total direct economic costs from the fires were likely to reach a multi-billion-dollar threshold. A large portion of those losses will be insured.

Meteorological Recap

An anomalous dome of high pressure re-established itself over the Western United States between September 4-7 bringing multiple days of near to record-breaking heat. Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories spanned California and the Desert Southwest, while the National Weather Service (NWS) in Los Angeles stressed that the heat wave created an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation, ranking among the hottest ever recorded in southwestern California since reliable weather records began. Peaking on September 6, a high temperature of 121°F (49.4°C) was reached at Pierce College in Woodland Hills (Los Angeles County), becoming the hottest official temperature ever measured in the coastal counties of Los Angeles, Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Luis Obispo. To the east, the temperature also reached 121°F (49.4°C) in Chino (San Bernardino County).

Satellite image on September 7 highlighting expansive smoke, fires, and advancing cold / winds in the Western U.S.(Source: GOES-17; NOAA; Colorado State University)

Weekly Cat Report 4

According to the NWS, these readings rank as the hottest temperatures ever recorded west of the Southern California mountains. A 125°F (51.6°C) temperature in Death Valley (California) on September 5 set the record high for the entire month of September. On the same day, extreme heat occurred in Denver (Colorado), where high temperatures reached 101°F (38.3°C), tying the record monthly high for September and becoming the latest date on which temperatures exceeded 100°F (37.3°C). Record- breaking heat was also observed in northern Mexico during this period.

The unprecedented heatwave aided in fueling an already historic wildfire season across California among other portions of the Western United States. As of this writing, CalFire has indicated that to date at least 3.1 million acres (1,254,525 hectare) have been scorched statewide during 2020, surpassing the previous record yearly acreage of 1.97 million acres (797,230 hectares) in 2018. As of this writing, 6 of the top 20 largest wildfires in California history have occurred in 2020. Reduced visibility and numerous air quality alerts are ongoing across the region as smoke from the wildfires continues to blanket many localities in the Western United States. Even as the heat wave moderated, critical fire weather conditions were further exacerbated between September 7-9 as a highly amplified and anomalous upper level jet-stream pattern allowed for a large cold trough to push southward along the eastern range of the Rockies. On September 7, warm, dry, and breezy conditions ahead of this feature prompted the NWS to issue Red Flag Warnings, indicating critical fire weather, spanning the West Coast from Oregon to California and reaching as far east as Colorado - signaling the start of an additional widespread dangerous period of elevated fire weather.

An unusually strong surface region of high pressure rapidly built in behind the trough while lower pressure lingered near the West Coast, creating a tight pressure gradient across the region. These conditions produced widespread offshore and downslope winds throughout the Western United States. These warm, inland originating winds blow downhill through the mountains and toward the coast, while drying out the air and enhancing the threat for brush and wildfires. Across the foothills of Southern California, offshore and downslope wind gusts between 35 and 55 mph (56 to 88 kph) were widespread on September 8-9 and are known locally as the ‘Santa Ana’ winds. A wind gust of 60 mph (96 kph) was reported along the Magic Mountain Truck Trial in California (Los Angeles County). By the evening of September 8, at least 380,000 customers across California, Washington, and Oregon were experiencing power outages. Red Flag Warnings continued to span the west coast from central California through eastern Oregon and Washington on September 9.

Weekly Cat Report 5

Elsewhere, the large pressure gradient and well defined cold front drove strong and damaging winds throughout portions of eastern Idaho with maximum gusts reaching 60 to 70 mph (96 to 112 kph) between September 7-8. Simultaneously, extreme downslope wind bursts occurred in Utah with gusts reaching and exceeding 90 mph (145 kph), particularly along the Wasatch Front. As the trough amplified, Winter Weather Advisories and Winter Storm Warnings were issued on September 8 across regions of Wyoming, Colorado (including Denver), and New Mexico as brisk northerly winds behind the sharp cold front caused temperature to plummet – many of these same locations experienced highs in the 90s (°F) and smoke-filled air just a day prior.

Fire perimeters and smoke on a visible satellite image from September 8 and 9. Data: NASA, NIFC. Graphic: Impact Forecasting (Cat Insight)

Weekly Cat Report 6

Event Details

California

In California, the Forest Service temporarily closed eight national forests beginning September 7 due to wildfire concerns; including Stanislaus, Sierra, Sequoia, Inyo, Los Padres, Angeles, San Bernardino, and Cleveland National Forests, the decision was made to expand the closure to include all eighteen national forests on September 9. On September 8, Pacific Gas and Electric (PG&E) preemptively shut off power to 172,000 customers across 22 counties adjacent to the Sierra Foothills as a precautionary measure.

The Creek Fire which began on September 4 and is currently burning in Fresno and Madera Counties on both sides of the San Joaquin River, near Mammoth Pool in the Sierra National Forest has exhibited extreme fire behavior due to strong winds, while burning through expanse of beetle killed timber. Pyrocumulonimbus clouds, generated by tremendous heat produced by the fire, have been observed reaching at least 45,000 feet (14,000 meters), according to observations from NOAA. The Creek Fire has affected at least 175,893 acres (71,181 hectares), while destroying at least 361 structures, of which 341 were residential or commercial, and 20 were minor structures. Most of the initial structural damage occurred in the communities of Big Creek and Shaver Lake (Fresno County). The rapid expansion of the fire trapped campers at the Mammoth Pool Campground as the flames blocked roads leading to and from the area, prompting the California National Guard to airlift 207 people to safety, with several injuries reported. In total, no less than 360 people have been rescued from the Creek Fire.

The Bear Fire part of the North Complex Fires burning in the Plumas National Forest (Plumas, Yuba and Butte Counties) were originally ignited by lightning strikes in mid-August, and rapidly expanded beginning on September 8 due to the early season Santa Ana wind event. The blaze jumped containment lines, and quickly progressed toward populated regions of the eastern Sacramento Valley. At the peak, U.S. Forest Service Officials reported spread rates approaching 1,000 acres (405 hectares) per 30 minutes. By the afternoon of September 10, the fires charred at least 252,163 acres (102,046 hectares) based on satellite data and extended toward regions surrounding Lake Oroville. Significant damage was noted to homes around Brush Creek and Berry Creek. Three fatalities were reported, with multiple people still missing. A preliminary report from CalFire suggested that 2,000 structures were destroyed.

The El Dorado Fire, which Law Enforcement determined was initiated by a smoke generating pyrotechnic device, used during a gender reveal party, began September 5 at El Dorado Ranch Park in Yucaipa (San Bernardino County). The fire has since resulted in multiple evacuation warnings and burned 12,610 acres (5,103 hectares). To date, the blaze has destroyed 10 structures and damaged 6 others.

The Valley Fire in San Diego County has expanded to 17,665 acres (7,149 hectares), destroying 51 structures while damaging 11 others, and resulting in two injuries. Significant structural damage was noted along the Japatul Valley, southeast of the community of Alpine and east of downtown San Diego.

The Bobcat Fire which ignited in the Angeles National Forest near Azusa (Los Angeles County) has grown to 23,890 acres (9,668 hectares), placing many residents in the nearby foothill communities under evacuation warnings and orders.

Creek Fire burning in the Sierra National Forest. Source: InciWeb/Ryan Waugh

Weekly Cat Report 7

The Slater Fire affecting portions of the Klamath National Forest, began on September 7 and has since expanded to 30,000 acres (12,140 hectares). The fire destroyed at least 150 homes near Happy Camp (Siskiyou County).

Taking advantage of several days of seasonable weather toward the end of August, personnel continued to make significant progress in containing the two of the larger lightning complex wildfires that ignited in mid-August, the SCU Lightning Complex (97 percent) and the LNU Lightning Complex (94 percent).

The table below highlights a partial list of some of the most destructive and largest wildfires in California since mid-August 2020.

Fire Name Date Started Acres BurnedDestroyed Structures

Damaged Structures

Fatalities

North Complex August 17 252,163 2,000 3

LNU Lightning Complex August 17 363,220 1,491 232 5

CZU Lightning Complex August 17 86,509 1,440 140 1

Creek September 5 175,893 361 9

SCU Lightning Complex August 16 396,624 224 26

Slater September 8 30,000 150

Carmel August 18 6,905 73 7

Lake August 12 31,089 54 6

Valley September 5 17,665 51 11

Stagecoach August 3 7,760 48 6 1

River August 16 48,088 30 13

Willow September 9 1,311 30

August Complex August 16 471,185 26 1

Sheep August 17 29,570 26

Elkhorn August 17 255,309 25 1

Jones August 17 705 21 3

Pond August 1 1,962 14 1

Butte/Tehama/Glenn Lightning Complex August 19 19,609 14 1

Loyalton August 14 47,029 11

El Dorado September 5 12,610 10 6

PARTIAL EVENT TOTAL 2,255,206 6,099 462 11

Weekly Cat Report 8

Washington

In Washington, dry conditions accompanied by maximum wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph (80 to 96 kph) created critical fire weather conditions statewide on September 7. In a 24-hour period, the Governor reported at least 330,000 acres (133,546 hectares) burned. Thousands across the state were left without power following the strong wind event. All Department of Natural Resources (DNR) managed lands east of the Cascades were temporality closed to recreational activities due to the unprecedented wildfire danger.

In Malden (Whitman County), the rapidly progressing Babb Road Fire (Malden Fire) destroyed no less than 80% of the buildings in the small town. The County Sheriff’s Department indicated that a fire station, post office, City Hall, and library were among the damaged and destroyed structures. Door to door evacuations were initiated, and as of this writing no injuries were reported. Damage was also noted in the nearby community of Pine City. The fired charred at least 8,943 acres (3,619 hectares).

The Cold Springs Fire which began on September 6 near Omak (Okanogan County) has affected 172,000 acres (69,606 hectares) and resulted in at least one fatality. The nearby Pearl Hill Fire which began on September 7 near Bridgeport (Douglas County) has expanded 174,000 acres (70,415 hectares). The Southeast Washington Interagency Incident Management Team has reported damage to structures resulting from the Pearl Hill fire. Additionally, the Whitney Fire burning near Davenport (Lincoln County) has destroyed at least 3 homes, while damaging multiple outbuildings. The fire was started by a powerline and has expanded to no less than 100,000 acres (40,468 hectares) since September 7.

Malden Fire.Source: Whitman County Sheriff’s Office

Weekly Cat Report 9

Oregon

In Oregon, the Governor declared emergency conflagration declarations to provide additional resources to local agencies battling the ongoing blazes, she also indicated numerous rescues have been performed throughout the state including residents pulled from rivers. On September 7, Portland General Electric (PGE) cut power to at least 5,000 customers in high-risk fire zones near Mt. Hood to mitigate potential fire spread from affected utility lines and transformers. The United States Department of Agriculture temporarily close Mt. Hood National Forest due to fire safety concerns. By September 10 the Governor announced at least 900,000 acres have burned across Oregon, while 40,000 people have evacuated.

The Santiam Fire, formerly Beachie Creek Fire burning the Wilmette National Forest (Clackamas, Marion, and Linn Counties) has exhibited extreme fire behavior fueled by persistent easterly winds and low humidity and is currently affecting 182,000 acres (73,653 hectares). The fire was fed by a series of smaller fires, several of which resulted from downed power lines. Hundreds of residents throughout the Santiam Canyon were forced to evacuate. All recreational activities in the Wilmette National Forest have been temporarily closed. Extensive damage was reported in Mill City, Gates, and communities near Detroit Lake (Linn and Marion Counties). At least two deaths related to the fire have been reported. The nearby Lionshead Fire has scorched 109,223 acres (44,200 hectares), while its eastern perimeter merged with the Santiam fire.

The Holiday Farm Fire ongoing on both sides of Highway 126 and the McKenzie River east of Eugene in portions of Lane County has burned at least 144,695 acres (58,556 hectares). The rapid spread of the fire surrounded deputies and fire personnel working to control the blaze on September 8. No less than 150 structures were destroyed and at least 1,000 homes evacuated, with the greatest impacts near Vida and Blue River (Lane County). – where a majority of structures were reportedly destroyed. Damage assessments are currently ongoing.

The Almeda Drive Fire began as a brush fire near Ashland (Jackson County) in southwestern Oregon on September 8, and rapidly burned up Interstate-5 through the City of Phoenix, and toward the City of Medford. Thousands of residents were prompted to flee their homes, while the fire impacted transportation along portions of Interstate-5, which was temporarily shut down. As of this writing, the Mayor of Phoenix estimates 1,000 homes may have been destroyed, with hundreds more in the neighboring communities, including Talent. As the fire expanded in a heavily populated region of the Rouge Valley, damage was noted in several mobile home parks adjacent to Bear Creek. To date, one fatality has been confirmed.

The Archie Creek Fire in Douglas County merged with the Star Mountain Fire, both burning along the North Umpqua River. The fire exploded in size to reach 97,344 acres (39,394 hectares) on September 9, according to the Douglas Forest Protective Association.

Weekly Cat Report 10

Colorado

In Colorado, The Cameron Peak Fire burning in Arapaho and Roosevelt National Forests near Cameron Pass and Chambers Lake was ignited on August 13, and further enhanced by critical fire weather conditions during the first week of September. Reaching 102,596 acres (41,518 hectares) on September 8, an early season winter weather event produced snowfall across the entire fire perimeter, significantly diminishing the short-term fire threat.

Idaho and Utah

In Utah, bursts of strong wind, triggered by the anomalous weather system which brought critical fire weather to the Western United States and wintry precipitation throughout the Rockies, reached 99 mph (159 kph) at U.S.-89 at Park Lane along the Northern Wasatch Front at an elevation of 4,288 feet (1,300 meters). A 97 mph (156 kph) wind gust was recorded in the Wasatch Mountains near Logan Peak at an elevation of 8,960 feet (2,731 meters). A 77 mph (124 kph) gust was measured at the Salt Lake City Airport (Salt Lake County). Significant wind impacts occurred along the Wasatch Front including Salt Lake City, with the strongest wind occurring in localities near the towns of Farmington and Centreville (Davis County).The winds resulted in power losses to at least 170,000 customers and one death. Multiple roadways including portions of Interstate-15 were temporarily closed due to toppled vehicles, downed power lines, and debris. Trees were uprooted and toppled throughout Cache, Davis, Weber, and Salt Lake Counties.

In Idaho, a 77 mph (124 kph) wind gust was measured in the Mud Lake Desert of Butte County, while winds gusting to 73 mph (117 kph) were recorded in the Eastern Magic Valley on September 7. Wind gusts approached 63 mph (101 kph) at the Pocatello Airport (Bannock County) as the cold front passed. The winds damaged two barns at the Eastern Idaho State Fair in Blackfoot (Bingham County). Several roadways were blocked due to downed trees and powerlines.


Financial Loss Total direct economic costs from the fires across California, Oregon, and Washington were likely to reach a multi-billion-dollar threshold. A large portion of those losses will be insured. It is entirely likely that 2020 will become the sixth consecutive year in which global insured losses from the peril top USD2.0 billion (2020 USD). While the United States has typically dominated the insurance industry from a wildfire perspective, recent years have also featured substantial property damage and humanitarian impacts from fires in Australia and Canada.

There have been 14 billion-dollar individual insured wildfire events in the official record (in today’s dollars after a U.S. Consumer Price Index adjustment). Nine of them have occurred since 2015. Eleven of the 14 events have been recorded in the United States, two in Australia, and one in Canada.


Typhoon Haishen makes South Korea landfall Typhoon Haishen became the tenth named storm of the 2020 Pacific Typhoon Season, and the third consecutive typhoon to make landfall in the Korean Peninsula since late August. After undergoing an explosive rapid intensification cycle, and becoming the strongest typhoon of the current season with 1-minute average sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph), it started to gradually weaken as it neared Japan’s Kyushu Island and eventually South Korea. Haishen officially came ashore near the coastal city of Ulsan, South Korea at approximately 09:00 AM local time on September 7 with 160 kph (100 mph) winds. At least four initial casualties were reported in Japan (2) and South Korea (2). The storm spawned notable flood- and wind-related damage and power outages. Total combined economic losses were anticipated to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD).

Meteorological Recap

A low-pressure area with disorganized convection originated roughly 320 kilometers (200 miles) northeast of Guam in the western Pacific Ocean on August 29, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) began monitoring it. While propagating generally west-northwest through a highly favorable environment, the system quickly organized into a well-defined low-pressure area and the convection around the center of this system became better organized by August 31. Subsequently, the Joint Typhoon Warning Center issued its first tropical cyclone formation alert on September 1. Later, during the evening hours on the same day, the system became better organized and surface pressure near the central convection region further consolidated with increased thunderstorm activity around it. At this point, displaying symmetric organized convection, the system was classified as a Tropical Depression, designated as “11W” according to the JTWC.

Shortly after, the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) upgraded the system to a Tropical Depression. Further, the system continued to propagate on a generally west-southwestward track over warm sea surface temperature and through moderate vertical wind shear conditions, prompting both the JMA and JTWC to upgrade it to a Tropical Storm. The JMA assigned it an international name “Haishen” – the tenth named storm of the 2020 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season.


On September 2, Haishen tracked west-northwest, while low vertical wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and sufficiently available moisture aided in further rapid intensification and consolidation. Later, at 06:00 UTC on the same day, the system attained typhoon equivalent intensity of 120 kph (75 mph) 1-minute sustained average winds; equivalent to a Category 1 storm on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (SSHWS). Haishen became the fifth typhoon of the 2020 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season. Shortly after this, JMA also upgraded the system to a typhoon.

The system underwent an explosive rapid intensification cycle on September 2-3, and for one 24-hour stretch ending on 18:00 UTC on September 3, the system intensified by 95 kph (60 mph) to attain an intensity of 215 kph (130 mph); Category 4 on the SSHWS. At this point, high resolution satellite imagery revealed that the system had a consolidate and symmetrical eye feature with increased thunderstorm activity around it.

At its peak, Haishen had attained 1-minute average sustained winds of 250 kph (155 mph); Category 4 on SSHWS. This was the strongest intensity achieved to date by a storm during the 2020 Northwest Pacific Typhoon Season. The minimum sea level pressure of 915 millibars around the center of the storm was recorded at 06:00 UTC on September 4, according to the data provided by JTWC. By September 5, the system was generally surrounded by a less conducive atmospheric and oceanic environment, which disrupted further intensification and the system showed gradual weakening as it continued to track on a northward trajectory. Later, microwave satellite imagery revealed that the eye feature appeared ragged, indicating weakening of the storm.

Typhoon Haishen on infrared imagery at 00 UTC (Source: NASA, Colorado State University)

Sep 5 Sep 6 Sep 7


The system exhibited persistent weakening as it continued to track northward towards the Korean Peninsula on September 5-6. Haishen was first declined to a Category 3 typhoon on September 5 at 18:00 UTC by the JTWC. During the morning hours of September 6, Haishen further weakened to a Category 2 storm, and subsequently it underwent another eyewall replacement cycle. Haishen came ashore in the coastal city of Ulsan in South Korea at approximately 09:00 AM local time (00:00 UTC) on September 7 with 160 kph (100 mph) winds and a central pressure of 955 millibars. As it came ashore, it started to rapidly degrade under the influence of frictional effects offered by the rugged mountainous terrain in southern parts of Korean Peninsula. Later, Haishen exited South Korea and entered the Sea of Japan (colloquially known as East Sea) as a tropical storm.

Haishen made its second landfall in the South Hamgyong Province of North Korea on September 7. Both JTWC and JMA issued their final advisories as the system had weakened into an extratropical low as it was located near the China-North Korea border.

Event Details

Korean Peninsula

Typhoon Haishen, after making landfall in coastal South Korea with an estimated 1-minute sustained winds of 160 kph (100 mph), tracked northward along the eastern periphery, causing widespread damage and casualties in its wake. Among the hardest-hit provinces included North and South Gyeongsang, Gangwon and Jeju Special Self-Governing Province. Approximately 3,000 people were preemptively evacuated from the low-lying regions of southern parts of mainland Korea fearing the landslide and severe coastal inundation possibilities. According to the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, South Korea, the storm resulted in power outages to more than 75,500 households. Internet and mobile communication in large areas were knocked out, mainly due to destruction of utility poles and other electrical infrastructure. Several trees were uprooted, resulting in blockades of roads and highways; however, the electricity and traffic movements were reinstated within few hours since the storm impacted these areas.

Source: Korea Meteorological Administration

Accumulated precipitation estimates from September 5-9 Data: GPM, NASA; Graphic: Cat Insight (Impact Forecasting)


Incessant rainfall associated with Haishen prompted landslides which damaged hundreds of houses in Busan and Geoje Island area. Approximately 100 fishing boats were damaged, destroyed, or sank in storm-related incidents. Turbines at nuclear reactors in the Gyeongju City were forced stop, which were later restored. According to the latest information from the Ministry of the Interior and Safety, South Korea, around 1,250 public and private facilities sustained damage to varying degrees. At least two people were killed, two others were missing, and five people were severely injured, mostly due to flooding.

After affecting Japan and South Korea, Haishen entered the northeastern parts of North Korea during the evening hours of September 7. North Korea was recovering from the widespread flooding caused by Typhoon Maysak last week. According to the media reports, Maysak had reportedly caused dozens of casualties and inflicted significant losses on local agriculture in North Korea. According to the media reports, thousands of people were evacuated from the low-lying areas in eastern North Korea; mainly from the Kangwon and South and North Hamgyong provinces. Thousands of houses, roads, and businesses were either damaged or inundated. A vast area of cropland was also destroyed. Full extent of the damage details and incurred economic losses were not known due to the limited information from the area. Multiple typhoons since late August enhanced the flooding situation in northeastern parts of China. More than 200 millimeters (8 inches) of rainfall were recorded in Jilin province, causing notable flood-related damage.

Japan

Typhoon Haishen brought damaging winds and heavy rainfall in 18 prefectures located along southern and western periphery of the Japanese archipelago, causing massive blackouts, casualties, and widespread damage in its wake. Kagoshima prefecture on the southern tip of Japan’s Kyushu main island was worst-hit. According to the media reports and Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency, notable wind, flooding, and landslide related damages were reported from the affected areas. Rain gauges in Miyazaki and Kagoshima Prefectures recorded more than 200 millimeters (8 inches) of 24-hour rainfall accumulations on September 7; with intermittent hourly rain-rates exceeding 80 millimeters in some isolated locations. Temporary power outages were reported from approximately 475,000 households in Kyushu island. The Japan Meteorological Agency issued advisories of strong winds, heavy rains, and storm surges for the southern Kyushu island. Evacuation advisories were issued for millions of residents in the low-lying areas of southern and western Japanese archipelago and roughly 23,000 people in 11 prefectures took shelter in relief camps. Also, mobile and internet communication in large areas were knocked out. Several businesses along with train, metro, flight, and bullet train services were temporarily suspended, which were later restored.

Prefecture Fatality Injured Damaged

Structures

Kagoshima 1 14 644

Fukuoka - 13 40

Mie - - 22

Aichi - - 11

Nagasaki - 16 9

Kumamoto - 22 6

Oita - 2 5

Miyazaki - 12 4

Yamaguchi - 7 3

Kanagawa - - 2

Shimane - 1 2

Hyogo - 8 1

Hiroshima - 3 1

Ehime - 1 1

Saga 1 8 1

Okinawa - - 1

Wakayama - 1 -

Tokushima - 7 -

Total 2 115 753


According to the Fire and Disaster Management Agency, two initial casualties were reported from Saga (1) and Kagoshima (1) prefectures, while four others were still missing as the search operation continues. At least 115 people were injured in 18 prefectures across western and southern parts of Japanese archipelago. As of this writing, 753 homes sustained damage to varying degrees, per the latest information from FDMA, Japan. This is rapidly evolving situation and the damage estimates are anticipated to significantly increase with time.

Financial Loss As damage assessments continue, and officials try to determine the damage breakout by each of the recent storms to affect the peninsula in recent weeks, it will take time for government officials and insurers to gain a complete view of the specific cost attributed to Typhoon Haishen. However, it is anticipated that the total combined economic losses were likely to reach into the hundreds of millions (USD) – with most of the damage occurring in South Korea and southern Japan.


Update: Seasonal flooding in African countries Widespread flooding led to dozens of additional fatalities in several countries of sub-Saharan Africa during the first 10 days of September. This was a part of a wider seasonal pattern that these countries experience on an annual basis. Continued major floods occurred in Northern Nigeria, where at least 45 people died, and more than 55,000 homes were damaged or destroyed. Notable floods also occurred in Niger, Burkina Faso and Senegal; while the situation also deteriorated in Sudan in East Africa.

Event Details

Flooding in Niger, which affected the country throughout the month of August, continued into early September. Additional rainfall accumulations were primarily observed in the extreme southwest of the country (Tillabéri region). The situation was largely exacerbated by dyke and dam failures. Widespread flooding affected the capital of Niamey and the adjacent region. According to some estimates, the number of people impacted by the ongoing seasonal floods increased to 330,000. Nearly 32,000 homes were reported to be damaged or destroyed, while cumulative total of fatalities increased to 65.

The government of Burkina Faso declared the state of emergency due to floods that have been affecting the country since late August. Number of fatalities in the country was at least 13, while at least 19 others were injured. Heavy rains also affected northern Ghana; authorities confirmed at least four fatalities.

Significant, widespread flooding also occurred in northern Nigeria, particularly in the Jigawa, Kano, Kebbi and Sokoto states. Emergency management authorities in Jigawa noted that as many as 50,000 homes might have been damaged or destroyed; and at least 20 people were killed. More than 5,000 structures were affected and four people died in Kano. Further material damage, including a notable agricultural loss, occurred in other affected states. Total number of fatalities was at least 45.

Six fatalities and notable material damage was initially reported in Senegal after an extremely high precipitation affected the country on September 5. Several regions were affected, including Kaolack, Sédhiou and the capital of Dakar.

The UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) noted that the flood situation in Sudan deteriorated in early September, with an estimated 500,000 people affected within the country in total, of which approximately 110,000 in September alone. Perhaps the most widespread effects were felt in Khartoum, North Darfur and Sennar. The Sudanese government declared the state of national emergency on September 4, emphasizing a widespread humanitarian impact on the population.

Niger

Burkina Faso

Mali

Sudan

Chad

Ethiopia

Senegal

Nigeria

Ghana

Accumulated precipitation estimates for the period from September 1-9Data: GPM, NASA; Graphic: Cat Insight (Impact Forecasting)


Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Flooding (Pakistan) Incessant rains from September 4-7 prompted flash floods in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province in Pakistan, causing another 2 casualties and widespread inundation damage. On September 10, at least three people were confirmed dead and several others were still missing when a boat capsized in Sindh Province. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), at least 250 people have died, and 175 others were injured. An estimated 20,000 homes and other structures and a vast area of cropland has been affected by the heavy rains associated with this year’s monsoon.

Flooding (India) Continuing monsoon rains since September 4 affected the states of Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Karnataka in India, causing additional damage and casualties. According to the latest information provided by the Disaster Management Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, India, no fewer than 50 people were killed and nearly 5,000 houses were either damaged or destroyed between September 4 and 10. Heavy seasonal monsoon precipitation this year has affected nearly 1.3 million hectares (3.2 million acres) of cropland across 26,000 villages in India.

Severe Weather (United States) On the evening of September 5, severe storms developed near the South Dakota and Minnesota border and progressed southeastward toward an environment characterized by a strong low-level jet - which aided in transporting warm moist air toward the region, along with ample vertical wind shear. Initially discrete storms and clusters quickly organized into a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) which propagated through portions of Minnesota, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Illinois throughout the overnight hours and into the morning of September 6. This event brought reports of hailstones approaching and exceeding 2.0 inches (5.1 centimeters) to regions of Minnesota including Renville and Kandiyohi Counties. A maximum measured straight-line wind gust of 83 mph (133 kph) was reported in Iowa (Kossuth County). Numerous instanced of downed trees and powerlines were reported. Total economic and insured losses were expected to reach into the millions (USD).

Flooding (Algeria) A spell of heavy rain on September 7-8 resulted in flash flooding in parts of Algeria. Among the most affected provinces were Mila, Tebessa, Khenchela, Oum El Bouaghi, Skikda, Batna and Algiers. The capital city experienced a relatively significant urban flooding. Algerian Civil protection noted one fatality and significant material losses in the affected regions, with preliminary assessments suggesting hundreds of homes damaged.


Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA


Global Precipitation Forecast

Source: Climate Reanalyzer, Climate Change Institute, University of Maine, USA


Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS operational daily global 5 kilometer Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C)

Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 19.0 -3.1

Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 25.3 -1.1

Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.0 +0.1

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NEIS, National Data Buoy Center


El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, though NOAA has officially issued a La Niña Watch. NOAA notes that there is a 60 percent chance that a weak La Niña will emerge in the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) autumn and last through the winter of 2020 / 2021 (~55 percent chance).

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle. El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average. El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).


Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center


Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information Name* Location Winds Storm Reference from Land Motion**

TS Rene 18.8°N, 36.3°W 50 mph 885 miles (1,425 kilometers) W from Praia, Cape Verde W at 11 mph

TS Paulette 21.9°N, 49.6°W 50 mph 865 miles (1,390 kilometers) E from Antigua and Barbuda NW at 9 mph * TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest

Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Central Pacific Hurricane Center


Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): September 4 - 10

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information Date (UTC) Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter

09/6/2020 30.34°S, 71.56°W 6.3 31 km 45 kilometers (28 miles) NW of Ovalle, Chile

09/6/2020 17.15°S, 167.58°E 6.2 8 km 10 kilometers (6 miles) NW of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

09/6/2020 7.69°N, 37.22°W 6.7 10 km central Mid-Atlantic Ridge

09/6/2020 6.27°N, 125.83°E 6.3 120 km 17 kilometers (11 miles) E of Talagutong, Philippines

09/7/2020 17.09°S, 168.48°E 6.0 10 km 73 kilometers (45 miles) NNE of Port-Vila, Vanuatu

Source: United States Geological Survey


U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats An upper level ridge re-establishing itself across the western United States will bring a period of much

above normal temperature across the northern Rockies, transitioning to the Central and Northern Plains between September 13-16.

A tropical disturbance emerging in the Gulf of Mexico, along with flow around a high-pressure system

to the northeast will bring heavy precipitation to a majority of the Gulf Coast between September 13-17. Tropical moisture is anticipated to push northward into the Mid-South and Ohio Valley between September 16-17.

Persistent southeasterly flow will allow periods of heavy precipitation across the southern

Appalachians between September 13-14. Severe and prolonged drought conditions continue across large regions of the Plains, southern

Rockies, Great Basin, and Northwest.


U.S. Wildfire: Significant Fire Risk Outlook & Activity The National Interagency Fire Center has highlighted an extended risk of elevated wildfire conditions across parts of the West and Desert Southwest during the early portion of September. Several very significant fires continue to burn in California, Oregon, and Washington following a period of extended heat and a further lack of measurable precipitation. Conditions may improve for parts of the Pacific Northwest by the middle of next week as some moisture returns.

Annual YTD Wildfire Comparison: September 10 Year Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

2016 42,280 4,745,957 112.25

2017 48,082 8,159,989 169.71

2018 47,303 7,068,928 149.44

2019 36,142 4,251,231 117.63

2020 41,599 5,288,247 127.12

10-Year Average (2010-2019) 44,177 5,761,034 130.41

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Top 5 Most Acres Burned by State: September 10 State Number of Fires Acres Burned Acres Burned Per Fire

California 7,944 1,696,132 213.51

Arizona 1,982 876,342 442.15

Washington 1,354 503,633 371.96

Colorado 943 334,608 354.83

Montana 1,835 257,350 140.25

Source: National Interagency Fire Center

Note: There is often a multi-day lag between NIFC and the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (CAL FIRE)


Current U.S. Streamflow Status

A ≥99th percentile indicates that estimated streamflow is greater than the 99th percentile for all days of the year. This methodology also applies for the other two categories. A steam in a state of severe drought has 7-day average streamflow of less than or equal to the 5th percentile for this day of the year. Moderate drought indicates that estimated 7-day streamflow is between the 6th and 9th percentile for this day of the year and ‘below normal’ state is between 10th and 24th percentile.

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage Location Current Stage (ft) Flood Percentile

Scioto River near Dublin, Ohio 7.36 99.00

Scioto River at Columbus, Ohio 11.73 99.00

Bosque River near Clifton, Texas 5.87 98.97

Rock Creek in Washington, DC 3.56 98.90

Sacandaga River near Hadley, New York 5.53 98.89

Source: United States Geological Survey


Source Information Record heat spawns more destructive U.S. wildfires California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection (Cal Fire) U.S National Weather Service Washington State Department of Natural Resources InciWeb Southeast Washington Interagency Incident Management Team United States Department of Agriculture State of Oregon Douglas Forest Protective Association More than 200 campers rescued by helicopter as Creek Fire prompts state of emergency in California, USA Today California endures record-setting ‘kiln-like’ heat as fires rage, causing injuries, Washington Post Valley fire grows to 17,345 acres; 3 percent contained as Santa Anas loom, San Diego Union Tribune Fast-Moving Wildfire Destroys 80% Of Small Town In Eastern Washington State, NPR Live updates: Oregon Gov. Kate Brown enacts emergency declaration due to fires, Oregon Public Broadcasting McKenzie Fire: Officials believe between 80-100 homes destroyed in Blue River, KVAL Eugene PG&E shuts off power for thousands of people, KCRA Hurricane-force winds kill one, topple hundreds of trees and knock out power for 170,000 residents, Salt Lake Tribune Western wildfires live updates: At least 7 dead in California, Oregon, Washington, KIRO Seattle 7 People Die in West Coast Wildfires, The New York Times The Latest: Gov. Brown: Over 900,000 acres burned in Oregon, ABC News

Typhoon Haishen makes South Korea landfall Typhoon Haishen lashes the two Koreas, The Canberra Times Typhoon lashes South Korea after battering Japanese islands, Norfolk Daily News Heavy wind, rain cause widespread damage, NHK World-Japan Typhoon Haishen: Storm makes landfall in South Korea after battering Japanese islands, Sky News Powerful Typhoon Haishen leaves 2 dead, 4 missing, over 100 injured in Japan, Kyodo News Japan Orders Millions to Evacuate as Typhoon Lashes Region, The New York TImes Joint Typhoon Warning Center Japan Meteorological Agency Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasure Headquarters, Ministry of the Interior and Safety, South Korea National Aeronautics and Space Administration Korea Meteorological Administration Fire and Disaster Management Agency, Japan

Update: Seasonal flooding in African countries UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ReliefWeb Floodlist

Natural Catastrophes: In Brief Pakistan: Boat capsizes killing children fleeing floods, DW U.S National Weather Service U.S Storm Prediction Center National Disaster Management Agency, Pakistan India Meteorological Department Disaster Management Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, India Civil Protection, Algeria


Contact Information Steve Bowen Director & Meteorologist Head of Catastrophe Insight Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected] Brian Kerschner Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

Michal Lörinc Senior Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]

Gaurav Srivastava Catastrophe Analyst Impact Forecasting Aon [email protected]


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