Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180727-1... · 2018-07-26 · Extensive drought that impacted northern half of Europe may result in multi-billion

Aon Benfield Analytics | Impact Forecasting

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Weekly Cat Report July 27, 2018


Weekly Cat Report 2

This Week’s Natural Disaster Events

Along with this report, we continue to welcome users to access current and historical natural catastrophe data and event analysis on Impact Forecasting’s Catastrophe Insight website: www.aonbenfield.com/catastropheinsight

Event & Region Fatalities Damaged Structures or Filed Claims

Est. Economic Loss (USD)

Specific Areas Page

Wildfire - Europe - Europe

85+

0

1,000+

N/A

10s of Millions+

102+ million

Greece

Sweden

3 3

Drought - Europe

0

N/A

3.3+ billion

Germany, Scandinavia, Baltics, Poland

3

Severe Weather - United States - China

18+ 6+

Thousands

10,000+

100s of Millions

154+ million

Plains, Midwest, Southeast

China

6

11 Heatwave - Asia

100+

Unknown

Unknown

Japan, Korean Peninsula, China

8

Tropical Cyclone - Asia

42+

20,600+

190+ million

China, Vietnam, Laos, Philippines

9

Flooding - Asia - Europe

20+

0

8,300

Hundreds

Unknown

50+ million

India

Poland, Slovakia

11 12

http://www.aonbenfield.com/catastropheinsight


Weekly Cat Report 3

Europe’s deadliest wildfire on record; drought continues At least 85 people were killed in Greece on July 23-24 in the deadliest single wildfire event recorded in Europe in modern times. Devastating blaze damaged or destroyed hundreds of structures in the vicinity of Athens, while official damage assessments remain ongoing. Elsewhere, forest fires of historic proportions continued to burn in Sweden, as Northern Europe remains in an extended period of severe drought.

Event Details

Attica Fires, Greece Dozens of wildfires broke out across Greece on July 23, some of which were concentrated in a densely populated Attica region (which includes Athens) and were exacerbated by particularly strong winds, reaching 9th category on the Beaufort scale. Exact ignition cause of the fires is still unknown.

Consequences were tragic; by July 26, authorities confirmed that 85 people were killed; at least 26 of them were found trapped on a single place near the beach in the seaside village of Mati on the eastern coast of Attica, attempting to escape the approaching fires. At least 187 people were injured in total within the area, including 23 children. An unknown number of people were believed to be still missing at the time of this writing and several were hospitalized in critical condition.

The impacted area in Eastern Attica was devastated, although its spatial extent was limited only to several villages on the eastern coast. The Mati village, a popular tourist and holiday destination, was ravaged almost entirely; according to local officials, 98 percent of Mati was burned. Significant damage was also reported from Kokkino Limanaki, where 50 percent of the village was affected, and also from Rafina, Neos Voutzas and Agia Marina.

Expert team from the Department of Geology and Geoenvironment of the National and Kapodistrian University of Athens provided several possible explanations why the event in Mati was so deadly, including:

• Location of the event in a typical Wildland-urban interface (WUI) in a densely populated area • Strong winds that caused rapid spread of the fire eastward towards the beach • Absence of early warning and inability of tourists to orientate in the area with specific urban

design with many dead ends and narrow streets • Specific morphology of the coastline that prevented easy escape to the sea, coupled with low

visibility and abundant smoke

Mati, Eastern Attica (Source: Department of National Defense)


Weekly Cat Report 4

According to unofficial statements by local officials, number of affected buildings might be as high as 6,000, along with 300 vehicles. At least 700 people were evacuated from local beaches overnight by coast guard and fishing boats in a hurried attempt to save their lives as they were forced to flee into the sea. Most of the evacuees were transferred to the Rafina port and then to safety or to hospitals.

Another destructive fire blazed near Kineta in Geraneia montain range in Western Attica; where 150-200 homes were damaged. Small portion of those were destroyed completely. The fires in Attica were devastating, but notable blazes also spread elsewhere; including the area near Apokoronas, Crete. The Greek Civil Protection confirmed at least 47 significant wildfires as of the morning of July 24.

Preliminary results of damage assessments in Attica, released by the Greek Ministry of Infrastructure and Transport are shown in the table below. Elsewhere, assessments are still ongoing.

Location Type Red (Destroyed)

Yellow (Requiring Repair)

Green (Habitable)

Nea Makri (Mati, Neos Voutzas)

Residential buildings 220 184 330 Businesses 3 4 3 Public buildings 0 0 1 Warehouses 11 5 0

Rafina - Pikermi Residential buildings 90 86 273 Businesses 1 1 6 Public buildings 0 0 0 Warehouses 5 2 1

Kineta

Residential buildings 139 66 271 Businesses 0 2 5 Public buildings 0 2 1 Warehouses 16 3 0

TOTAL 485 248 279

The disaster prompted international help; teams from Cyprus, Bulgaria and Spain offered assistance immediately after the event via the European Civil Protection Mechanism. The Greek government declared the state of emergency in the districts of Western and Eastern Attica and the event became a national tragedy; even though the fires were not exceptionally large in extent, the high number of fatalities occurred due to the fact that people were trapped in Mati, encircled by fires and unable to escape. Without the desperate attempts to ship the evacuees to safety, the death toll could have been even higher. The fire in Mati became the deadliest European wildfire on record; Portuguese fires in 2017 killed 115 people, but consisted of two separate events in June and October. The event is followed by Greece Wildfires in 2007 with 84 fatalities and Landes Forest Fire in France from 1949 with 82 killed.

Sweden Forest Fires Sweden continued to battle the largest forest fires in its modern history. According to the Swedish Forestry Agency, the fires burned approximately 25,000 hectares (61,750 acres) of forest, or 2.6 million cubic meters of wood, worth SEK900 million (USD102 million). SFA based the numbers on operational data from Swedish Civil Protection and Emergency Agency (MSB), assuming timber prices from 2017. Among the hardest hit were regions Gävleborg, Jämtland and Dalarna.

The event will have notable impact on local insurance industry. The largest non-life insurer in Sweden expects the total loss to be higher than SEK400 million (USD45 million).


Weekly Cat Report 5

Northern Europe Drought Besides the fires, the ongoing period of severe drought will likely result in significant losses in the Swedish agricultural sector. Preliminary, forecasted estimates of possible impact made by Swedish Agriculture Agency compare the current drought to that of 1992, which caused losses in multiple billions of SEK (1 USD ~ 8.8 SEK).

However, the extended period of drought across the entire northern half of the continent might eventually result in multi-billion-dollar reductions in farmers’ profits. Particularly critical situation is in Germany, where members of several industry associations indicated that this year’s losses might exceed EUR2 billion (USD2.3 billion).

Early forecasts of Danish Agriculture and Food Council projected nationwide losses of DNK4.5 billion (USD706 million).

Polish Ministry of Agriculture’s latest estimate from early July indicated that the losses could reach PLN162.5 million (USD44 million), but this may upwardly adjust by a significant margin.

Financial Loss Devastating fires in Greece will likely have substantial financial consequences. The first emergency payment of EUR20 million (USD23 million) made by Greek government will only cover response costs in the affected areas. As the damage assessments are still ongoing, it is difficult to predict final economic impact of the event.

Extensive drought that impacted northern half of Europe may result in multi-billion financial impact over the course of spring and summer. Preliminary, projected estimates of multiple national agricultural associations suggest that this year’s drought will be a multi-billion-dollar event on an economic loss basis.

Drought in Europe, July 1-10. (Source: European Drought Monitor)


Weekly Cat Report 6

Severe weather & floods lead to further U.S. damage Inclement weather resulted in significant convective storm and flood damage across the eastern two-thirds of the United States from July 17-25. The period was marked by nearly two-dozen tornado touchdowns (including two EF3 tornadoes in Iowa), up to grapefruit-sized hail, straight-line winds, and excessive rainfall that impacted more than a dozen states in the Plains, Midwest, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast. Extensive flash flooding and rising rivers led to widespread inundation and high-water rescues in Pennsylvania, Maryland, and North Carolina. Total economic losses were anticipated to well exceed USD100 million.

Meteorological Recap The overall pattern during the seven-day span from July 17-25 was primarily driven by a meandering upper level area of low pressure. The low, which originally hovered around the Plains and Midwest before later shifting southward into the Southeast and eventually transitioned northeastward towards the Mid-Atlantic, tapped a deep pool of warmth and moisture in the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic Ocean. With ample daytime heating, this helped destabilize the atmosphere and prompt days of afternoon and evening severe thunderstorms.

In the Plains and Midwest, this meant an increased risk of convective storms prompting isolated tornado touchdowns, large hail, and damaging straight-line winds. This would eventually occur, with significant tornadoes – including two rated EF3 – in Iowa on July 19. The most prolific impacts were noted in the towns of Pella and Marshalltown.

During this same timeframe, an unusually strong dip in the jet stream for the month of July helped push a cold front into Northern Florida; while a stationary boundary stretched from Georgia into New York. These dynamics in place promoted a chance of powerful thunderstorms and prolonged periods of heavy rainfall occurring in same locations for consecutive days. With the upper level low present, this helped tap moisture and cause it to interact with the stationary boundary. This led to clusters of thunderstorms and heavy rain that led to widespread flooding from the Carolinas into Pennsylvania.

Some areas in North Carolina and Maryland recorded more than 15.00 inches (381 millimeters) of rainfall through July 26. The heavy rainfall led to instances of flash flooding after numerous rivers and streams rapidly burst their banks after rising as much as 7.0 feet (2.1 meters) in less than two hours’ time. Some normally dry areas saw floodwaters reach several feet (meters) in height. This was particularly true in portions of central and eastern Pennsylvania – notably around Dauphin, Lebanon and Schuylkill counties – and areas close to Washington DC. The pattern finally eased on July 26 as the frontal boundary pushed eastward into the Atlantic Ocean.


Weekly Cat Report 7

Event Details Severe Weather

Powerful thunderstorms tracked across the Central U.S. on July 19-20, spawning notable damage to homes and vehicles in several states. Dozens of people were injured, and authorities confirmed that 17 fatalities were indirectly caused by the inclement weather in a boating accident near Branson, Missouri.

The hardest-hit areas came in Kansas, Iowa, and Missouri as up to baseball-sized hail and straight-line winds gusting in excess of 80 mph (130 kph) was recorded. National Weather Service (NWS) meteorologists determined that six confirmed tornadoes touched down in Iowa alone: EF1 (2), EF2 (2), EF3 (2). Tornado surveys found some of the heaviest damage in the Iowa communities of Pella, Marshalltown, and Bondurant. In Marshalltown alone, local officials reported that significant damage had occurred from an EF3 twister with up to 144 mph (232 kph) winds that tore through the most densely populated residential area of town and multiple commercial sites. The other EF3 tornado with similar wind speeds also impacted Pella.

Additional severe weather damage due to hail, straight-line winds and no fewer than 12 tornado touchdowns was also recorded in parts of Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Alabama, Arkansas, Mississippi, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina.

Separately, an active weather pattern from July 22-24 set up across Colorado. With a weak surface low and a frontal boundary in place, numerous strong to severe thunderstorms prompted large hail and winds gusting in excess of 65 mph (100 kph) to areas outside of Denver and near Colorado Springs and Aurora. Torrential rainfall additionally spawned isolated flash flooding in the Manitou Springs. One person was killed.

Flooding

As noted previously, the most significant flooding was recorded across parts of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Maryland, and Virginia following consecutive days of very heavy rainfall. Some of the worst damage occurred along the Swatara Creek in Pennsylvania, the Susquehanna River in Maryland, and Conodoguinet Creek in Pennsylvania. The high-water levels led to hundreds of homes and businesses sustaining water inundation, and various road closures due to high water levels or partial wash-out.

The inclement weather across the eastern two-thirds of the country was in dire contrast to the extensive heat and dryness in the West. This was especially true in the Desert Southwest, where daytime temperatures soared to above 120°F (48.9°C).

Financial Loss The aggregated cost from the severe convective storms and the riverine/flash flooding is expected to register into the hundreds of millions (USD). This economic cost will include damage associated with residential and commercial property, vehicles, infrastructure, and agriculture.

Tornado damage in Marshalltown, IA (Source: NOAA)


Weekly Cat Report 8

Record heat leaves dozens dead in East Asia An extended period of record heat swept across much of East Asia throughout the month of July, officially leading to nearly 100 fatalities in Japan and South Korea alone. Local authorities in the two countries reported that more than 23,000 people, including 22,000+ in Japan, had been taken to hospitals with heat-related impacts. On July 23, Japan recorded its warmest temperature on record: 41.1°C (106°F) at Kumagaya in Saitama Prefecture.

Meteorological Recap The extended heat across East Asia – notably Japan, China, and the Korean Peninsula – was directly attributed to a stubborn atmospheric pattern. A blocking ridge of high pressure established across the Northwest Pacific Ocean, which allowed for a dome of daily heat to engulf the region. This heat was additionally fueled by a prolonged seasonal frontal boundary that enhanced moisture levels to make outdoor conditions even more uncomfortable.

Among the hottest days during the July stretch occurred on July 23. Data from the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) cited that 627 stations had maximum daytime temperatures of at least 30°C (86°F), including 241 stations that were at least 35°C (95°F). No fewer than 21 record highs were set (see table below). At Kumagaya in Saitama Prefecture, the thermometer hit 41.1°C (106°F), which was the hottest day ever recorded in Japan. The previous record was 41°C (105.8°F) and set in Ekawasaki on the island of Shikoku on August 12, 2013. The heat was also felt in Tokyo, where the high temperature reached 38°C (99°F). The JMA noted that between July 14-23, Tokyo topped 34° (93°F) every single day – after only topping that temperature just twice in July 2017.

Similar heat was noted in South Korea, where the Korea Meteorological Administration noted that July 22 was the hottest day in the country since 1994. Further heat was noted in central and eastern China, with the China Meteorological Administration citing temperatures nearing 40°C (104°F) in some spots through the end of July.

Station Prefecture July 23

Temp (°C) July 23

Temp (°F) Station Prefecture July 23

Temp (°C) July 23

Temp (°F) Kumagaya Saitama 41.1 106 Ena Gifu 38.8 101.8 Oume Tokyo 40.8 105.4 Chikusei Ibaraki 37.2 99 Kiryu Gunma 39.9 103.8 Tanabe Wakayama 36.7 98.1 Yorii Saitama 39.9 103.8 Nagiso Nagano 35.6 96.1 Tokorozawa Saitama 39.8 103.6 Inake Aichi 35.5 96 Kuwana City Mie 39.7 103.5 Niijima Tokyo 34.2 93.6 Shinshiro Aichi 39.6 103.3 Oshima Kitanoyama Tokyo 34.2 93.6 Okazaki Aichi 39.3 102.7 Kozushima Tokyo 33.7 92.7 Hachioji City Tokyo 39.3 102.7 Cape Saigo Shimane 33.6 92.5 Sakura Saitama 39.3 102.7 Terobo Tochigi 32.9 91.2 Sano Tochigi 39.2 102.6

Daytime highs on July 23 in Japan; black box signifies record high (Source: JMA)

Record high temperatures in Japan on July 23 (Source: JMA)


Weekly Cat Report 9

Event Details The intense heat put enormous strain on electrical power grids across Japan, South Korea, and China. Given the extra usage of air conditioners to keep homes and commercial facilities cool, this led to overworked power sources and eventual loss of electricity due to a lack of supply. Extremely hot environments inside homes with no air conditioning led to dozens of fatalities, including 80 alone in Japan. Local Japanese officials reported that more than 22,000 people had been hospitalized since the heatwave began. In Tokyo, at least 3,125 people were ambulanced due to heat on July 23 alone – the most in any single day since 1936. The Japanese government declared the event a natural disaster.

Similar impacts were found in South Korea, where emergency service groups noted that more than 1,000 people had fallen ill due to the hot weather during a stretch from May 20 to June 21. Fourteen fatalities were confirmed. This marked a 61 percent increase in comparison to the same period last year. Daily weather data in North Korea cited temperatures reaching 34°C (93.2°F) in Pyongyang.

Multiple tropical systems lead to flooding in Asia Three separate tropical systems affected south-east and east Asia from July 17-25. Tropical storm Son-Tinh brought heavy rainfall to Vietnam, Laos and China and Tropical Storm Ampil caused significant losses in China. The south-west monsoon, or Habagat rains, in the Philippines were enhanced due to the presence of Son-Tinh, Ampil and a third tropical depression bringing widespread flooding to the region. At least 41 people died and nearly 21,000 houses were damaged in the region with economic costs preliminarily – and minimally – estimated at USD190 million.

Tropical Storm Son-Tinh A tropical depression near Manila, Philippines strengthened into a tropical storm between July 15-17 and was named Son-Tinh. The storm hit Cagayan in northeastern Philippines on July 17th before crossing the Hainan island on July 18th. Son-Tinh intensified over the Gulf of Tonkin to attain a maximum 10-minute sustained wind speed of 75 kph (45 mph) before affecting Vietnam between July 18-20. The system subsequently tracked back to the Gulf of Tonkin and began re-intensifying over the warm waters aided by an upper-level tropospheric trough to become a tropical storm again on July 22. Son-tinh went on eventually track back towards land. By July 23, Son-Tinh was an elongated storm with a weak band of thunderstorm wrapping into its eastern quadrant and bringing rain over Hainan island and mainland China.

The system continued to weaken on July 24, bringing rain to Guangxi and Guangdong, China and northeastern Vietnam and ultimately dissipated over mainland China.


Weekly Cat Report 10

The storm brought heavy rainfall triggering floods and landslides over Vietnam. The provinces of Thanh Hóa, Yen Bai and Nghệ An were particularly affected. The events killed at least 32 people, injured 14 and left 17 more missing according to the Vietnam National Committee for Search and Rescue. It was also reported that more than 15,000 houses and 110,000 hectares (272,000 acres) of crops were damaged or destroyed. The economic loss was preliminarily estimated to be VND458 billion (USD20 million). Son-Tinh also brought heavy rainfall to Laos and may have influenced the collapse of a hydro-electric dam in the province of Attapeu on July 23 which reportedly left hundreds of people missing and 6,600 homeless. Additional flood impacts were incurred in Thailand.

Damage was largely minimal in China. Roughly 100 homes were damaged in Hainan and Guangxi, and only a small swath of agricultural land was inundated by floodwaters. Total economic losses were estimated at CNY83 million (USD12 million).

Tropical Storm Ampil Tropical Storm Ampil formed from a low-pressure system over the Philippine Sea on July 18. The system intensified while moving of East China Sea and eventually made landfall on the island of Chongming in Shanghai on July 22 with winds of up to 100 kph (65 mph). Even as the storm reached Shandong, China on July 23, it had bands of thunderstorm wrapping into its low-level center. Ampil finally underwent extratropical transition on July 25.

At least 387,000 people were evacuated in Shanghai and neighboring provinces ahead of the storm. Ampil affected several provinces in China including Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Shandong and Hebei. Beijing and Tianjin also reported losses. Shandong recorded the only fatality of the event and suffered the highest damage. Across China, at least 5,400 houses were damaged or destroyed and 169,200 hectares (418,100 acres) of crops were affected. The direct economic loss was estimated to be CNY1.19 billion (USD175 million).

The tropical storms Son-Tinh and Ampil, together with tropical depression Thirteen (locally named Josie), acted to enhance the Habagat or South-west monsoon rainfall. The enhanced monsoonal rain, under the influence of the three tropical systems triggered at least 51 landslides and two separate instances of flash floods across Philippines. The death toll according to the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) was reported to be 9 but regional reports put the number as at least 19. A total of 101 road sections and 8 bridges were affected by the floods which affected at least 724 areas across 6 Regions. At least 231 houses were damaged or destroyed. The direct economic loss was estimated to be P1.38 billion (USD26 million) from damage to agriculture and infrastructure.

Location of heavy rainfall in Son-Tinh on July 17 (Source: NASA)

TD Ampil over land in eastern China (Source: NASA)



Natural Catastrophes: In Brief

Earthquake (Iran) A shallow magnitude-5.9 earthquake affected the Tazeh Abad district of Kermanshah, Iran on July 22. The main earthquake was followed by dozens of aftershocks. Initial assessments indicated that the tremors affected 43 settlements and destroyed a total of 101 residential buildings. Another 250 buildings suffered major damage and a further 600 sustained minor damage. According to Kermanshah Governor's Crisis Management Department, the tremor left at least 287 people injured. Local officials had yet cited an economic loss estimate for the event as assessments remains ongoing.

Flooding (Liberia) Three-day heavy rainfall caused heavy flooding in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia and Montserrado County on July 18. According to the National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA), the flooding caused significant damage and affected more than 31,000 people.

Flooding (India) Heavy rain since July 20th triggered flooding the state of Odisha, India. Rian between July 20-23 exacerbated the existing conditions due to a previous heavy rainfall event between July 15-16. According to local reports, 8,286 houses were damaged or destroyed between July 20-24 and as many as 20 people were said to have died. The economic impact of the event is yet to be assessed.

Severe Weather (China) Isolated thunderstorms and heavy rainfall affected several provinces of China between July 22-25. At least four people died and more than 6,100 houses were damaged or destroyed after an intense spell of rain triggered flooding Gansu on July 22. The flooding affected 7,700 hectares (19,000 acres) of cropland and caused an economic loss of CNY500 million (USD74 million). Severe convective weather in Guizhou, Heilongjiang, and Yunnan claimed two lives and caused hail and wind damage to 4,000 hectares (10,000 acres) of crops. Thousands of homes were damaged. The economic loss was estimated at CNY541 million (USD80 million).

Flooding (Cambodia, Laos) Heavy rain since July 17 caused flooding in several provinces of Cambodia including the provinces of Kampong Speu, Battambang, Koh Kong, Phreah Sihanouk and Kampot as well as Pur Senchey district in Phnom Penh. According to local reports, 1,786 houses and 1,100 hectares of paddy fields were damaged as on July 22. On July 23, a hydroelectric dam failed in Laos following a spell of heavy rain which may have been enhanced by Tropical Storm Son-Tinh. The dam burst released over 170 billion cubic feet of water downstream, resulting in 26 confirmed deaths with as many as 131 others still missing. The flash flood moved from Laos into Cambodia, exacerbating the flood situation there. Floodwaters in Cambodia tied to the Laos dam failure submerged no fewer than 17 villages.



Flooding (Myanmar) Days of torrential monsoonal rains led to widespread flooding in Myanmar from July 21-26. Nearly 17,000 people were evacuated from their homes in Kayin State alone as the Thanlwin River and other rivers and streams rapidly overflowed their banks. Dozens of villages were flooded with up to 90 centimeters (2.9 feet) of water. Flooding (Poland, Slovakia) Heavy, prolonged rainfall, associated with an area of low pressure area and an influx of moisture from the north, caused intense flash flooding in a mountainous region on the border of Poland and Slovakia on July 18-19. The highest 48-hour rainfall total (163 millimeters / 6.4 inches) was measured in Tatranská Javorina on the Slovak side of the Tatra mountains. The rains caused local streams to burst their banks, which resulted mainly in damage on infrastructure, hiking trails and forestry, as well as evacuation of approximately 300 people. Total damage was estimated at EUR0.7 million (USD0.8 million). However, even worse flooding ensued in Poland. Several municipalities in Malopolskie region were affected, particularly under the Tatra and Gorce mountain ranges. Most of the initial damage surveys showed impacts to infrastructure, as more than 15 bridges and multiple stretches of regional roads were washed away. According to local officials from municipalities Ochotnica Dolna, Kamienica and the Tatra National Park, total damage could reach as high as PLN175 million (USD48 million).



Global Temperature Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface air temperatures (2 meters above the surface). Probabilities indicate the percent of ensemble members that predict temperatures significantly above normal, near normal, or significantly below normal. Source: Climate Prediction Center



Global Precipitation Anomaly Forecast

This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of accumulated precipitation. Probabilities are derived from the fraction of ensemble precipitation forecasts exceeding various thresholds. Source: Climate Prediction Center



Weekly Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Anomalies (°C)

The SST anomalies are produced by subtracting the long-term mean SST (for that location in that time of year) from the current value. This product with a spatial resolution of 0.5 degree (50 kilometers) is based on NOAA/NESDIS' operational daily global 5 km Geo-polar Blended Night-only SST Analysis. The analysis uses satellite data produced by AVHRR radiometer.

Select Current Global SSTs and Anomalies Location of Buoy Temp (°C) Departure from Last Year (°C) Eastern Pacific Ocean (1,020 miles SW of San Salvador, El Salvador) 26.2 -1.5 Niño3.4 region (2°N latitude, 155°W longitude) 27.7 +0.5 Western Pacific Ocean (700 miles NNW of Honiara, Solomon Islands) 30.4 -0.1

Sources: ESRL, NOAA, NESDIS, National Data Buoy Center



El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) An El Niño Watch is in effect by NOAA. ENSO-neutral conditions are currently present, and are expected to continue through the North American summer months. There is a 65 percent chance of El Niño occurring by the North American fall and a 70 percent chance of El Niño lasting through the boreal winter of 2018/19.

El Niño refers to the above-average sea-surface temperatures (+0.5°C) that periodically develop across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the warm phase of the ENSO cycle. La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of sea-surface temperatures (-0.5°C) across the east-central equatorial Pacific. It represents the cold phase of the ENSO cycle.

El Niño and La Niña episodes typically last nine to 12 months, but some prolonged events may last for years. While their frequency can be quite irregular, El Niño and La Niña events occur on average every two to seven years. Typically, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña.

ENSO-neutral refers to those periods when neither El Niño nor La Niña conditions are present. These periods often coincide with the transition between El Niño and La Niña events. During ENSO-neutral periods the ocean temperatures, tropical rainfall patterns, and atmospheric winds over the equatorial Pacific Ocean are near the long-term average.

El Niño (La Niña) is a phenomenon in the equatorial Pacific Ocean characterized by a five consecutive 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region that is above the threshold of +0.5°C (-0.5°C). This standard of measure is known as the Oceanic Niño Index (ONI).

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Mid-July IRI/CPC Model-BasedProbabilistic ENSO Forecast

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Climatological

Source: NOAA



Global Tropics Outlook

Source: Climate Prediction Center



Current Tropical Systems

Location and Intensity Information

* TD = Tropical Depression, TS = Tropical Storm, HU = Hurricane, TY = Typhoon, STY = Super Typhoon, CY = Cyclone ** N = North, S = South, E = East, W = West, NW = Northwest, NE = Northeast, SE = Southeast, SW = Southwest Sources: National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Name* Location Winds Center of Circulation Motion**

TS Jongdari 24.2°N, 140.5°W 70 mph 175 kilometers (110 miles) SW of Iwo To, Japan NE at 13 mph



Global Earthquake Activity (≥M4.0): July 20-26

Significant EQ Location and Magnitude (≥M6.0) Information

Source: United States Geological Survey

Date Location Magnitude Depth Epicenter



U.S. Weather Threat Outlook

Potential Threats Multiple slow-moving upper level areas of low pressure and subsequent surface frontal boundaries

are expected to impact the eastern two-thirds of the U.S. through next week. Given ample moisture in place, this will help spawn numerous showers and thunderstorms – some which may be severe.

Recent heavy rainfall across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast has left river levels elevated. The additional forecast rain – in addition to already oversaturated soils – could lead to flooding in these areas next week.

An upper level ridge of high pressure will remain firmly situated in the Rockies and Northwest through the weekend into next week. This will help amplify daytime temperatures to well above normal levels.

Severe drought conditions persist for much of the Desert Southwest, Northwest, Plains, and the Midwest.

Source: Climate Prediction Center



Current U.S. River Flood Stage Status

Top 5 Rivers Currently Nearing or Exceeding Flood Stage

Source: United States Geological Survey

Location Flood Stage (ft) Current Stage (ft) % of Full Capacity

Swatara Creek near Hershey, Pennsylvania 7.00 16.55 236% Swatara Creek at Harper Tavern, Pennsylvania 9.00 17.03 189% Gunpowder Falls at Glencoe, Maryland 7.00 10.22 146% Swatara Creek at Middletown, Pennsylvania 11.00 14.45 131% Des Moines River at Estherville, Iowa 8.00 9.29 116%



Source Information Deadliest fires in Greece since 2007; drought continues: Multiple articles in Kathimerini Multiple articles in Eleftheros Typos Forest for a billion has burned down, Dagens Nyheter General Secretariat for Civil Protection Swedish Forestry Agency European Drought Observatory Vereinigte Hagel Severe weather & floods lead to further U.S. damage: Flooding in East, heat in West: Double whammy hits US, USA Today Flooding in the Mid-Atlantic is shaping up to be 'potentially dangerous, even life-threatening', CNN U.S. Storm Prediction Center U.S. National Weather Service U.S. Weather Prediction Center Record heat leaves dozens dead in East Asia: Power Grids Stretched as Deadly Heat Wave Scorches Asia, Bloomberg Japan heatwave: Temperature breaks national record, BBC News Record high in Japan as heat wave grips the region, The Associated Press Japan Meteorological Agency Japan’s Fire and Disaster Management Agency Korea Meteorological Administration China Meteorological Administration Ministry of Civil Affairs, China Multiple tropical systems lead to flooding in Asia: Vietnam flood death toll rises to 27, more rain forecast, Reuters Typhoon Son Tinh kills at least 32 in Vietnam, NHK World Heavy downpour pounds Beijing, Tianjin, China News Service Typhoon Ampil wreaks havoc in China, Xinhua Tropical Cyclone Son-Tinh makes landfall again, Aljazeera Continuous rains trigger massive flooding in Central Luzon areas, Philippines News Agency Rains, floods and landslides hit Vietnam and the Philippines, Asia News NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP Satellite Catches Tropical Depression Ampil Over Eastern China, NASA Vietnam Disaster Management Authority Joint Typhoon Warning Center Japan Meteorological Agency Natural Catastrophes: In Brief: Over 3 lakh hit by rains, floods in Odisha; 20 dead, Times of India Ochotnica Dolna: PLN 120-150 million losses due to downpour. Gazeta Krakowska Limanowska commune Kamienica devastated by the flood. MiastoNS Tatra Mountains. TPN estimates losses after a flood. Initially over PLN 3 million. Wyborcza Kermanshah Governor's Crisis Management Department, Iran Slovak Hydrometeorological Institute The Islamic Republic News Agency National Disaster Management Agency, Liberia Floodlist Ministry of Civil Affairs, China



Contact Information

Steve Bowen Director (Meteorologist) Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +1.312.381.5883 [email protected] Michal Lörinc Catastrophe Analyst Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting +420.234.618.222 [email protected] Anwesha Bhattacharya Senior Analyst Aon Benfield Analytics Impact Forecasting + 91.80.6621.8575 [email protected]

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Weekly Cat Report - Aon Benfieldcatastropheinsight.aonbenfield.com/reports/20180727-1... · 2018-07-26 · Extensive drought that impacted northern half of Europe may result in multi-billion

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