Volume 105, No. 12 http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather March 20, 2018 (Continued on page 5) Contents Water Supply Forecast for the Western United States ........ 2 Extreme Maximum & Minimum Temperature Maps.................. 4 Temperature Departure Map .................................................... 5 March 13 Drought Monitor & U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook .......................................... 6 National Weather Data for Selected Cities ............................... 7 National Agricultural Summary ............................................... 10 International Weather and Crop Summary ............................. 11 February International Temperature/Precipitation Maps .. 21 Bulletin Information & Soil Temperature Map ......................... 36 WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN ate-season storminess continued to boost snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and other Western regions, including the northern Great Basin. The California Department of Water Resources indicated that the water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack had increased to 11 inches by March 15, nearly triple the mid- February value of 4 inches but only 40 percent of the mid- March normal. However, showers largely bypassed the southern High Plains and the Southwest, two regions where drought continued to worsen. Elevated temperatures (as L U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board HIGHLIGHTS March 11 – 17, 2018 Highlights provided by USDA/WAOB
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Volume 105, No. 12 http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather March 20, 2018
(Continued on page 5)
Contents
Water Supply Forecast for the Western United States ........ 2 Extreme Maximum & Minimum Temperature Maps .................. 4 Temperature Departure Map .................................................... 5 March 13 Drought Monitor & U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook .......................................... 6 National Weather Data for Selected Cities ............................... 7 National Agricultural Summary ............................................... 10 International Weather and Crop Summary ............................. 11 February International Temperature/Precipitation Maps .. 21 Bulletin Information & Soil Temperature Map ......................... 36
WEEKLY WEATHER AND CROP BULLETIN
ate-season storminess continued to boost snowpack in the Sierra Nevada and other Western regions,
including the northern Great Basin. The California Department of Water Resources indicated that the water content of the high-elevation Sierra Nevada snowpack had increased to 11 inches by March 15, nearly triple the mid-February value of 4 inches but only 40 percent of the mid-March normal. However, showers largely bypassed the southern High Plains and the Southwest, two regions where drought continued to worsen. Elevated temperatures (as
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U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Weather Service
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE National Agricultural Statistics Service and World Agricultural Outlook Board
HIGHLIGHTS March 11 – 17, 2018
Highlights provided by USDA/WAOB
2 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Water Supply Forecast for the Western United States
Highlights La Niña’s influence on North American weather patterns appeared to wane in late winter. Instead, an atmospheric block brought mild weather (high pressure aloft) to much of Alaska but introduced cool air (low pressure aloft) to the western part of the contiguous U.S. The cooler pattern developed across the West in mid-February. Occasional storms accompanied the colder weather, resulting in heavy snow across the northern Rockies and an improvement in snowpack from Oregon and California eastward into the central Rockies. As a result, water-supply prospects remained favorable across the northern tier of the West and improved in the middle one-third of the region. In the Southwest, however, both snowpack and runoff prospects remained abysmal.
Snowpack and Precipitation
By March 18, 2018, river basins in Oregon and across the southern half of the West had sub-par snowpack (figure 1). The situation was especially dire in Arizona and New Mexico—mostly less than 25 percent of average. Since mid-February, storms and cooler conditions have boosted snowpack across the middle one-third of the West. Consequently, basins within that area have a snowpack that has improved to 50 to 75 percent of average. Meanwhile, near- to above-normal snowpack covered most of Idaho, Montana, Washington, and Wyoming.
SNOTEL – River Basin Snow Water Content Figure 1
SNOTEL – River Basin Precipitation Figure 2
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 3 Season-to-date precipitation (October 1, 2017 – March 18, 2018) was slightly more impressive than snowpack, in part due to frequent warmth limiting accumulation of high-elevation snowpack. Still, precipita-tion was less than 50 percent of normal in most Southwestern basins (figure 2), and less than 90 percent of normal in all of the West except Idaho, Montana, Washington, Wyoming, and northern Oregon.
Spring and Summer Streamflow Forecasts
By March 1, 2018, projections for spring and summer streamflow were indicating the likelihood of near- or above-normal runoff in the Pacific Northwest and the northern Rockies (figure 3). In other parts of the Northwest, including much of Oregon and southern Idaho, a lack of snow has reduced runoff potential, despite a periodically active weather pattern. Meanwhile, the Southwest has only sporadically received winter precipitation, leading to forecasts of poor spring and summer runoff—less than 25 percent of the normal volume in several river basins.
Reservoir Storage On March 1, 2018, reservoir storage as a percent of average for the date was substantially below average in Arizona and New Mexico, and slightly below average in Washington (figure 4). Cumulative storage for this time of year was near or above average in all other Western States. In several states, including California, Colorado, Nevada, Oregon, and Utah, reservoir storage continues to reflect bounteous runoff in the spring and summer of 2017.
For More Information The National Water and Climate Center homepage provides the latest available snowpack and water supply information. Please visit: http://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov
Figure 3 Figure 4
4 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 5 (Continued from front cover) much as 5°F above normal with readings peaking above 80°F), high winds, and low humidity levels on the southern High Plains resulted in blowing dust, a rash of grassfires, and further deterioration in the condition of rangeland, pastures, and winter grains. From Nebraska northward, however, rain and snow maintained generally favorable conditions for winter wheat. Farther east, relative normalcy returned to the Midwest, several weeks after a severe, late-winter flood struck the Ohio Valley and environs. In contrast, stormy conditions persisted in the Northeast, as the third major storm of the month brought more heavy snow and high winds, as well as a full-fledged blizzard to coastal New England. Cold air in the storm’s wake drained deep into the Southeast, resulting in a multi-day freeze event as far south as northern Florida that peaked on March 15. Southeastern weekly temperatures averaged as much as 10°F below normal. Owing to the record-setting February warmth that preceded the March cold snap, producers monitored Southeastern ornamentals, blooming fruits, and recently emerged crops for any signs of freeze injury. Warmer air returned across the Southeast at week’s end, accompanied by rain showers. Early in the week, hot weather affected the lower Rio Grande Valley. Record-setting highs for March 11 included 101°F in McAllen; 97°F in Harlingen; and 95°F in Brownsville. A day later, record-breaking warmth briefly arrived across the Pacific Northwest. In Washington, daily-record highs for March 12 rose to 73°F in Seattle and 71°F in Olympia. In contrast, high temperatures on March 12 only rose to 38°F in Danville, VA, and Raleigh-Durham, NC. Elsewhere in Virginia, Blacksburg (30°F) failed to reach the freezing mark on the 14th, following a 4.9-inch snowfall on March 12. After mid-week, warmth developed across the south-central U.S. Dodge City, KS, collected a daily-record high of 84°F on March 15. The following day, record-setting highs in Texas soared to 88°F in Austin and 85°F in College Station. Farther east, daily-record lows in Florida for March 16 dipped to 33°F in Vero Beach and 34°F in Fort Pierce. The week opened on a stormy note in the Southeast, with snow accumulating from the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys into the southern Mid-Atlantic States. On March 11, Jackson, MS, reported a daily-record rainfall of 2.33 inches. Farther north, Lexington, KY, was buried by a 9.0-inch snowfall on March 11-12. Elsewhere in Kentucky, Jackson received a daily-record snowfall (5.2 inches) for March 12. In the southern Mid-Atlantic region, March 12 snowfall totaled 3.0 inches in Greensboro, NC, and 2.0 inches in Richmond, VA. On March 13, a blizzard engulfed much of coastal New England, while heavy snow also fell farther inland. In Massachusetts, the 13th became the snowiest March day on record in Worcester (21.8 inches and a peak gust to 40 mph) and Boston (14.5 inches and 50 mph). Isolated storm-total snowfall reached or exceeded 2 feet, mainly in parts of Massachusetts, while Nantucket Island, MA, reported an official peak gust to 70 mph on the 13th. Elsewhere, Portland, ME, received 14.3 inches on March 13-14, accompanied by a peak gust to 44 mph, while Providence, RI, reported 9.5 inches, along with a gust to 48 mph. Concord, NH, noted 17.1 inches of snow on March 13-14. Farther
inland, Albany, NY, received 12.0 inches of snow from March 12-14, following 11.9-inch totals on March 2 and 7-8. During the mid- to late-week period, the focus for significant precipitation shifted to the West. From March 14-17, Elko, NV, received 1.03 inches of precipitation and 5.0 inches of snow. Elsewhere in Nevada, Winnemucca was blanketed by a 13.8-inch snowfall on March 15-16, aided by a total of 11.3 inches on the latter date. Previously, Winnemucca’s snowiest March day had been March 6, 1952, with 7.5 inches. Similarly, Reno, NV, measured 9.1 inches of snow on the 16th—experiencing its snowiest March day since March 14, 1952, when 13.6 inches fell. Toward week’s end, precipitation expanded across the Northwest and parts of the northern Plains. In Montana, record-setting precipitation totals for March 15 included 0.52 inch in Cut Bank and 0.38 inch in Helena. In Nebraska, daily-record amounts for March 16 reached 0.83 inch in Norfolk and 0.75 inch (including 4.2 inches of snow) in Valentine. Finally, March 17 featured daily-record precipitation amounts in locations such as Walla Walla, WA (0.59 inch), and Lewiston, ID (0.49 inch). In Alaska, a slight shift in weather patterns brought mild weather to eastern areas and cold air to the state’s western tier. In southeastern Alaska, Sitka tallied a trio of daily-record highs (54, 58, and 54°F) from March 12-14. Similarly, consecutive daily-record highs were established on March 12-13 in locations such as Annette Island (61 and 65°F) and Ketchikan (60 and 65°F). Meanwhile, month-to-date snowfall through March 17 climbed to 16.7 inches (439 percent of normal) in Kotzebue, aided by a daily-record total of 3.3 inches on the 13th. Farther south, warm weather developed across Hawaii, following some mid-week downpours. On the Big Island, Hilo collected a daily-record rainfall (2.86 inches) for March 14. On the same date, 4.55 inches fell in Lihue, Kauai. Elsewhere on Kauai, famously wet Mount Waialeale netted 12.63 inches in a 24-hour period on March 14-15. In contrast, Honolulu, Oahu, reported its first measurable rainfall of the month (0.06 inch) on March 14. Later, Hilo posted consecutive daily-record highs (87 and 86°F, respectively) on March 15-16, while Lihue logged a daily-record high of 85°F on March 16.
6 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
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The Drought Monitor focuses on broad-scale conditions. Local conditions may vary. See accompanying text summary for forecast statements.
10 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
National Agricultural Summary March 12 – 18, 2018
Weekly National Agricultural Summary provided by USDA/NASS
HIGHLIGHTS
Extreme drought continued in the southern Plains and Colorado Plateau, with the worst conditions in northwestern Oklahoma. Precipitation was plentiful in other parts of the country. New England witnessed another week of snow, while rainfall of one-half inch or more was reported in most Southeastern States. Heavy precipitation was reported in northern California, where 4 or more
inches fell in parts of the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures were below normal across much of the nation, averaging 6°F or more below normal in the Mid-Atlantic States and at least 9°F below normal in parts of Montana. Temperatures were above normal in Texas and the central to lower Rockies, averaging 6°F or more above normal in parts of Arizona, New Mexico, Colorado, Utah, and Wyoming.
Arizona: Cotton planting was 17 percent complete, compared to 8 percent the previous year. Ninety-five percent of the barley had emerged and 29 percent had headed, compared with 11 percent last year. Barley was rated mostly good to fair. Durum wheat planting was estimated at 99 percent complete; 93 percent had emerged; and 13 percent had headed, compared with 10 percent last year. Durum wheat was rated mostly good to fair. Alfalfa conditions were rated mostly good to excellent, with harvesting taking place on three-quarters of the acreage. Central and western Arizona growers shipped anise, broccoli, cabbage, cauliflower, celery, Chinese cabbage, cilantro, iceberg lettuce, kale greens, and parsley (curly and plain). In eastern Arizona, growers also shipped beet tops, and in western Arizona, growers shipped arugula, bok choy, endive, escarole, frisee, radicchio, and spinach. Apache, Gila, and Navajo Counties received little rain and rangeland conditions continued to decline. In Coconino and Yavapai Counties, recent storms dropped just enough precipitation to keep conditions static. New forage was rare. For the entire state, pasture and range conditions were rated mostly poor to fair. Sixteen of the 50 weather stations reported some precipitation, with Bullhead City reporting the most at 0.79 inch. Thirty of the 50 stations reported above-normal temperatures. The highest temperature was 87°F at Robson Ranch; the lowest was 21°F at Window Rock. Arkansas: There were 4.6 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture supplies were 2 percent short, 50 percent adequate, and 48 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture supplies were 4 percent short, 56 percent adequate, and 40 percent surplus. Average low temperatures ranged from 27.4°F at Lead Hill to 43.0°F at Hot Springs. Average highs ranged from 57.3°F at Kingston to 70.4°F at Nashville. Precipitation was light throughout the state, with the highest concentration occurring in the east-central area with an average of 0.18 inch. Florida: There were 6.7 days suitable for fieldwork. Precipitation ranged from no rain in multiple locations to 1.7 inches in Leon County. Average temperatures ranged from 51.1°F in Hamilton County to 69.8°F in Monroe County. Producers were able to harvest some silage and hay in Jackson County. Corn was planted and cropland was prepared for other plantings where conditions allowed in Washington County. Corn was also planted in Gilchrist County. Potatoes were killed back from frost in Suwannee County. Sugarcane harvest continued in Glades and Hendry counties. Producers in Dixie County replanted watermelon due to frost damage. Cabbage harvesting was reported in Flagler and Putnam Counties. A wide range of crops came to market, including beans, boniato, cabbage, celery, herbs, leafy greens, malanga, radish, squash, sweet corn, and tomatoes. Temperatures were below normal early in the week, warming to well above average by the weekend. All areas had highs in the 80s at least one day. Several stations across the citrus region reached 86°F. Most counties had less than 0.20 inch of rain, well below historical averages. Polk County had the most rainfall at 0.42 inches. According to the March 13, 2018, U.S. Drought Monitor, dryness and drought expanded in some areas. The large dry area in the citrus region covered all of Osceola, Orange, Seminole, and Brevard Counties, and extended into many surrounding counties. In the southern citrus area, the dry conditions completely covered Lee, Hendry, and Collier Counties. Manatee and Hillsborough Counties in the western area had a small area of abnormal dryness. Grove operations included some hedging, topping, and fertilizing. Irrigation was seen running on most days. Canals and ditches were low due to the lack of rainfall over the past several weeks. Citrus trees were between full and open bloom to bloom beginning to fall off the trees. Valencia orange
harvest was in full swing. Tangerine harvest was slowing down. Mandarin harvest included Tangos and Royal and Honey tangerines. Red and White grapefruit harvest also continued to slow down significantly. Kansas: There were 6.3 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture supplies rated 48 percent very short, 33 percent short, and 19 percent adequate. Subsoil moisture was rated 35 percent very short, 43 percent short, and 22 percent adequate. Winter wheat condition rated 17 percent very poor, 38 percent poor, 34 percent fair, 10 percent good, and 1 percent excellent. Louisiana: There were 3.2 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture was 2 percent short, 53 percent adequate, and 45 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 60 percent adequate and 40 percent surplus. Average low temperatures ranged from 34.6°F at Homer to 55°F at Crowley. Average highs ranged from 64.2°F at Red River to 74.2°F at Crowley. Most of the state received some rain, with the highest totals in the east-central part of the state with an average of 1.54 inches. Mississippi: There were 1.6 days suitable for fieldwork. Topsoil moisture was 40 percent adequate and 60 percent surplus. Subsoil moisture was 50 percent adequate and 50 percent surplus. Average low temperatures ranged from 29.4°F at Winona to 51.3°F at Vicksburg City. Average highs ranged from 57.0°F at Tunica to 68.0°F at Columbia. Most of the state received some rain, with the highest totals in the central part of the state with an average of 2.21 inches. Oklahoma: The week ending March 18 was another dry week, with the highest precipitation totals recorded in the North Central district at 0.40 of an inch. Fires were reported in Northwest Oklahoma, with much of the rest of the state under a fire weather watch. Statewide temperatures averaged in the lower 50s. Topsoil and subsoil moisture was rated mostly very short to adequate. There were 6.6 days suitable for fieldwork. Winter wheat jointing reached 21 percent, down 8 percentage points from the 5-year average. Canola blooming reached 6 percent, down 1 percentage point from the average. Rye jointing reached 8 percent, down 14 percentage points from the average. Oats jointing reached 5 percent, down 9 percentage points from the previous year and down 1 point from the average. Condition of pasture and range was 77 percent poor to fair. Livestock condition was 85 percent fair to good. Texas: Scattered showers were observed. Precipitation in parts of the Cross Timbers, Blacklands, and East Texas ranged from 0.1 to 1.5 inches, with isolated areas in the Blacklands topping 2.0 inches. Recent rains aided wheat and oats in the Cross Timbers and the Blacklands. Wheat producers continued irrigating on parts of the High Plains due to little or no precipitation. Fieldwork preparation for cotton and sorghum planting continued on the Edwards Plateau. Early-planted corn began to emerge in the Upper Coast and South Central Texas. Cotton, corn, and sorghum planting was underway in parts of the Upper Coast. Vegetable producers began planting in North East Texas. Weather favored development of vegetables in South Texas. Harvest continued for sugarcane, citrus, and vegetables in the Lower Valley. Livestock were mostly in good condition as the need to provide supplemental feeding decreased, but livestock producers in parts of the Northern Low Plains and South Texas continued to supplement pastures. Statewide pasture conditions were mostly fair to good. Stock tank water levels dropped in parts of the Blacklands.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 11
March 11-17, 2018 International Weather and Crop Highlights and Summaries provided by USDA/WAOB
HIGHLIGHTS
EUROPE: Warm, wet weather expanded across the continent, maintaining good to excellent prospects for greening winter crops. MIDDLE EAST: Unseasonable warmth continued to promote rapid crop development, with additional beneficial rain in the north sustaining favorable moisture supplies for vegetative wheat and barley. NORTHWESTERN AFRICA: Showers continued, maintaining good to excellent prospects for vegetative to reproductive winter grains. EAST ASIA: Warm weather and periods of showers promoted development of wheat and rapeseed.
SOUTHEAST ASIA: Showers continued to boost soil moisture and water reserves for rice in western Indonesia. AUSTRALIA: Sunny skies and adequate topsoil moisture benefited immature summer crops but also favored early harvesting. SOUTH AFRICA: Rain fell in southern and eastern sections of the corn belt, but drier conditions limited moisture for late-planted western crops. ARGENTINA: Drought intensified over sections of central Argentina, worsening prospects of corn and soybeans. BRAZIL: Beneficial rain returned to previously-dry southern corn and soybean areas.
Showers
Warm & Wet (Europe)
Scattered Showers
Sunny Skies
Drought Intensifies (C Argentina)
Winter Crops Dormant (Western FSU)
Warm & Showery
Showers Continue
Unseasonably Warm
Showers for Rice (W Indonesia)
Rain Returns (S Brazil)
12 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
After the recent cold snap, warmer, wetter conditions overspread the continent. A series of Atlantic storms raced east across central and southern Europe, producing widespread rain and mountain snow (10-75 mm, locally more in the south) across most major crop regions. Drier weather (10 mm or less) was limited to northern-most growing areas as well as some Mediterranean Coast locales (in particular, southeast Spain and southern Greece). Temperatures averaged 1 to 3°C above normal from France into Poland, while readings averaged up to
8°C above normal in the Balkans. The recent warmth ushered winter crops out of dormancy from southern England into the Balkans, while winter crops in northeastern Europe remained dormant. Conversely, colder-than-normal weather (up to 3°C below normal) slowed winter grain development somewhat in Spain and Portugal. Outside of any damage caused by the recent hard freeze in northeastern Europe, winter grains and oilseeds are entering the spring in good condition with adequate to abundant moisture supplies for crop development.
EUROPE
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 13
Unseasonable warmth persisted, with additional showers in Turkey and parts of Iran contrasting with dry weather elsewhere. Temperatures during the period averaged up to 8°C above normal in many of the region’s primary winter grain areas, encouraging faster-than-normal crop development. Wheat was in the tillering stage of development in the north, and reproductive in the
traditionally-warmer central and southern growing areas. Widespread light to moderate rain and mountain snow (2-25 mm, locally more) maintained adequate to abundant soil moisture for winter grain development from Turkey into western and northern Iran. Sunny skies across central and southern portions of the region accelerated winter grain development and seasonal fieldwork.
MIDDLE EAST
14 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Showers continued, maintaining good to excellent prospects for winter grains. In Morocco, another week with moderate to heavy rainfall (10-90 mm, locally more) in central and northern portions of the country boosted moisture reserves for reproductive wheat and barley. Rain was lighter (less than 10 mm) in southern portions of the country, though moisture supplies were nevertheless still
favorable for flowering winter wheat. Light to moderate showers (2-23 mm) were likewise reported across crop areas of Algeria and Tunisia, benefiting jointing to heading winter grains. Temperatures averaged near normal in Morocco, while readings up to 4°C above normal in Algeria and Tunisia encouraged a faster-than-normal pace of crop development.
NORTHWESTERN AFRICA
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 15
Unseasonably warm weather (temperatures 5°C or more above normal) across eastern China promoted development of wheat and rapeseed, and following an unusually warm February, caused crops to break dormancy 1 to 2 weeks earlier than normal. In addition, the warmer-than-average conditions
increased moisture requirements for crops, though irrigation supplies and soil moisture remained adequate, bolstered by recent showers (10-25 mm, locally more). Meanwhile, early-crop rice sowing was underway in the south, with adequate water reserves to aid establishment.
EASTERN ASIA
16 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Showers continued across most of Indonesia, maintaining favorable soil moisture and water supplies for rice. In fact, recent rainfall all but erased lingering deficits in western Java that had existed since early December. Autumn-sown rice harvesting is likely underway, as spring rice sowing commenced. In contrast to the wet weather in
rice areas, oil palm areas of Indonesia and neighboring sections of Malaysia received unseasonably light showers (less than 25 mm), however soil moisture remained favorable. Meanwhile in the Philippines, drier weather in the northeast promoted harvesting of autumn-sown rice as well as sowing of spring rice.
SOUTHEAST ASIA
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 17
Following last week’s widespread showers, dry weather overspread southern Queensland and northern New South Wales. The dry weather favored maturation and harvesting of cotton, sorghum, and other summer crops that were planted early in the growing season. A combination of sunny skies,
seasonably warm weather, and generally adequate topsoil moisture benefited immature crops as well, promoting late-season development and helping to maintain yield prospects. Temperatures averaged near normal (within 1°C of normal) in major summer crop producing areas.
AUSTRALIA
18 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Showers maintained generally favorable conditions for immature summer crops in southern and eastern sections of the corn belt, but drier conditions returned to the west, limiting moisture for later-planted crops. Consequently, rainfall was variable across the region, with the highest amounts (25-100 mm) in eastern Free State and northern KwaZulu-Natal. Rainfall was considerably less to the north and west, totaling 10 to 25 mm in and around Mpumalanga, while virtually no rain fell in North West. Weekly temperatures averaging near to above normal (daytime highs ranging from the upper 20s
degrees C to upper 30s in traditionally-warmer locations) maintained high crop moisture requirements, particularly in western farming areas, where later-planted crops still in early filling stages were subjected to highs in the lower and middle 30s on several days. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy rain (25-50 mm or more) expanded along the southeastern coast, providing a late-season boost in moisture to rain-fed sugarcane in southern KwaZulu-Natal. Lighter rain (5-25 mm, locally higher in some coastal areas) clipped the coast of Western Cape, but amounts were not sufficient to bring significant drought relief.
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SOUTH AFRICA
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 19
Below-normal rainfall persisted throughout key farming areas of central Argentina, worsening prospects of later-planted summer grains and oilseeds. While light showers (amounts totaling below 25 mm) brought temporary relief to crops in eastern sections of the region, temperatures reached the lower 30s (degrees C) on several days, sustaining high crop moisture demands and increasing evaporative losses. Virtually no rain fell in Cordoba and neighboring locations in Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, and La Pampa. Similar to the wetter eastern locations, these areas recorded daytime highs in the low 30s on several days despite a general trend toward cooler conditions. Across the region, nighttime lows briefly fell below 5°C but no freezes were reported. According to the government of Argentina,
sunflower harvesting advanced 6 points during the week ending March 15 to 46 percent complete, due to advances in southern production areas supported by the dryness. Farther north, mostly dry albeit warmer conditions (weekly temperatures averaging near to slightly above normal) also prevailed in Argentina’s northwestern farming areas, which had been receiving near- to above-normal rain until recently. Meanwhile, locally heavy rain (25-50 mm) was concentrated over the northeast, reaching as far west as the main cotton areas of Chaco and northern Santa Fe, providing a favorable boost in moisture to late-developing summer crops. However, some northern locations experienced several days with temperatures reaching the middle 30s, engendering high rates of evapotranspiration.
ARGENTINA
20 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Showers intensified over previously-dry southern farming areas, providing a timely late-season boost in moisture to immature soybeans and corn. Rainfall totaling 25 to 50 mm (locally approaching 100 mm) covered Rio Grande do Sul, Santa Catarina, and the southern half of Parana. The moisture was particularly timely for later-planted corn and soybeans in Rio Grande do Sul after several weeks of below-normal rainfall, though harvesting of earlier-planted crops is reportedly advancing. Rainfall was generally patchy and light (below 25 mm, with large areas recording less than 10 mm) in northern Parana, Mato Grosso do sul,
and nearby locations in Sao Paulo, Minas Gerais, and Goias, allowing opportunities for fieldwork; in Parana, second-crop corn was reportedly 86 percent planted as of March 12, with harvesting of soybeans and first-crop corn listed as 62 and 24 percent complete, respectively. Farther north, abundant rain sustained favorable prospects of second-crop corn and cotton as the final stages of transitional fieldwork progressed toward completion. According to government reports, Mato Grosso soybeans were 91 percent harvested as of March 16, and second crop corn planting was virtually compete at 99 percent.
BRAZIL
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 21
February International Temperature and Precipitation Maps
EUROPE
Much colder weather arrived over the continent during February, with dry conditions in the north contrasting with wet weather in southern portions of the region. Temperatures averaged up to 4°C below normal, with the coldest readings arriving after a brief mid-month spell of mild weather. By late February and early March, a sharp cold snap posed a risk to wheat and rapeseed in snow-free areas of Germany (as low as -16°C) and Poland (down to -20°C), as well as unharvested citrus along the central Mediterranean Coast (-8 to -4°C). Rain — and in some
cases historic snow — was observed from Spain and France into Italy and the Balkans. The wet weather was particularly beneficial for vegetative winter grains in Spain (25-55 mm, 100-225 percent of normal) and central Italy (locally more than 100 mm, more than 200 percent of normal), eliminating the last vestiges of autumn drought and boosting crop yield prospects considerably. Outside of the potential burnback and winterkill in some northeastern growing areas, most dormant winter crops were in good shape in central and northern Europe.
22 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Conditions for dormant winter wheat remained good to excellent over the region during February. After an unusually warm December and January, the coldest weather of the season — accompanied by widespread snow — settled over Ukraine and western Russia during the latter half of the month. Nevertheless, lingering warmth (up to 5°C above normal) over southern growing areas kept these
locales devoid of protective snow cover. However, minimum temperatures of -15 to -7°C did not pose a risk of freeze damage in these snow-free crop areas (the threshold for freeze damage to exposed winter wheat is near or below -17°C). Moisture reserves are in good supply for spring growth following near- to above-normal precipitation for most the winter.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 23
Seasonably cold weather prevailed in the north, while rain and snow boosted moisture reserves for winter wheat in the south. During February, agricultural activity in spring wheat areas of central Russia and northern Kazakhstan was non-existent. Despite the easing of January’s
extraordinary cold weather, nighttime lows dropped below -25°C (locally less than -30°C) in the north. Meanwhile, rain and mountain snow (40-90 mm liquid equivalent) in Uzbekistan boosted moisture reserves for dormant to semi-dormant winter wheat.
24 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
In February, warmer- and wetter-than-normal weather expanded across the region. Rain and mountain snow in Turkey (20-100 mm liquid equivalent, locally more near the coasts and in the southeast) maintained favorable moisture reserves for dormant (central and north) to vegetative (south) winter grains, although central portions of the country were drier than normal. Moderate to heavy rain
(50-260 mm, more than 200 percent of normal) eased or alleviated drought in Iraq and across central and northeastern Iran, providing a timely boost to vegetative winter wheat and barley. Unusually warm conditions (3-7°C above normal) continued to facilitate faster-than-normal crop development in the south and encouraged unseasonably early green up in the north.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 25
During February, conditions for winter grains remained favorable in the east and further improved in the west. The wet winter continued in Morocco and western Algeria, with monthly rainfall totaling 40 to 120 mm in primary growing areas (locally more than 200 percent of normal). The abundant rainfall eliminated any lingering
concerns over historic autumn drought and boosted wheat and barley prospects as crops approached reproduction. From north-central Algeria into northern Tunisia, widespread heavy rain (100-200 mm, locally more) sustained adequate to abundant soil moisture for vegetative wheat and barley development.
26 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Seasonably dry weather prevailed across most of the region in February, with brief periods of localized showers occurring in interior India and Bangladesh. Heavier showers (over 25 mm) were confined to far northern India, neighboring sections of Pakistan, and throughout Sri Lanka; the totals were still below
normal, though. In addition, continued rainfall deficits in northern Sri Lanka raised concerns of insufficient moisture supplies for rice. Meanwhile, hotter-than-normal weather in northern India and Pakistan promoted rapid development of wheat and rapeseed that typically begins maturing in late March.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 27
During February, rainfall was confined to the seasonally wetter areas of southeastern China. Most rapeseed and rice areas received 25 to 50 mm or more (near normal in the rapeseed areas, but well below normal in the southern rice areas). Meanwhile, seasonably dry weather (less than 10 mm)
prevailed for wheat that was dormant during most of the month. By mid-month, unusually warm weather allowed rapeseed in the Yangtze Valley and wheat on southern sections of the North China Plain to break dormancy earlier than usual, while also facilitating early-crop rice sowing in the southeast.
28 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Following a season of lighter-than-normal showers across western rice areas of Indonesia, above-normal rainfall prevailed during February (over 200 mm), all but erasing lingering moisture deficits. In contrast, drier weather occurred in eastern rice areas and across most oil palm areas of Indonesia and Malaysia, but above-normal rainfall for much of the season kept soil moisture favorable. Farther
north, persistent downpours continued in the eastern Philippines, with some areas reporting nearly 500 mm for the month. Seasonally, the wettest areas have been in southern Luzon were rainfall totals surpassed 2,000 mm (30 percent above average). However, most of the excessive wetness and flooding occurred in minor crop-producing areas.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 29
During the first half of February, unfavorably hot, dry weather in southern Queensland and northern New South Wales reduced the yield potential of dryland crops, such as sorghum, and increased the water demands of irrigated crops,
such as cotton. Wet weather and more seasonable temperatures overspread the region during the latter half of the month, easing irrigation requirements and stabilizing yield prospects for summer crops.
30 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
During February, timely showers sustained overall favorable summer crop prospects in key commercial farming areas of the nation’s eastern interior. Across the corn belt (North West and Free State eastward) monthly accumulations mostly ranged from 50 to 100 mm, which represented near- to below-normal levels for the month of February; however, while generally lighter than normal, showers were evenly distributed during the month, helping to keep temperatures down to seasonable levels. Similarly, sporadic showers brought timely relief to
rain-fed sugarcane in southern parts of KwaZulu-Natal, despite the overall trend of below-normal rainfall for the season. Elsewhere, occasional February showers boosted irrigation reserves for summer row crops in Eastern and Northern Cape, in particular corn and cotton areas along the Orange River. Despite some isolated showers, seasonable dryness, accompanied by summer warmth, sustained drought conditions in Western Cape, though conditions favored late-developing tree and vine crops where irrigation was available.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 31
Drought intensified in most major agricultural areas throughout the month of February, with some locations recording monthly rainfall totals amongst the lowest seen in recent history. Most farming areas of central Argentina (La Pampa, Buenos Aires, and southern production areas in Cordoba, Santa Fe, and Entre Rios) recorded monthly rainfall below 50 mm, with a large area from southern Santa Fe northward to Chaco receiving less than 25 mm for the entire
month. Unseasonable warmth (temperatures averaging up to 3°C above normal across the entire month) accompanied the dryness, with daytime highs reaching the middle 30s (degrees C) on numerous days through the end of February. Rainfall was more frequent, with accumulations closer to the monthly normal, in the northwest (Salta and environs), sustaining conditions that were relatively more favorable for later-planted corn and soybeans.
32 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
In February, frequent, near- to above-normal rainfall maintained favorable prospects for corn and cotton in key production areas of central and northeastern Brazil. Monthly accumulations totaled more than 200 mm over a broad region spanning Mato Grosso, Tocantins, and agricultural areas in western Bahia, Piaui, and Maranhao. Similar amounts were recorded in parts of Goias and Minas Gerais, otherwise much of south-central Brazil (southern Mato Grosso to Parana) recorded at least 100 mm for the month. The aforementioned drier locations — notably Parana and Mato Grosso do Sul — experienced extended
periods of dryness that favored soybean harvesting and planting of second-crop corn, between episodes of heavy rain that sustained favorable levels of soil moisture for emerging corn. In Rio Grande do Sul, periods of dryness were more extensive, but temperatures were generally seasonable (just a few days with highs reaching the middle 30s) and crops in northern farming areas were in generally good condition due to earlier periods of abundant rain. However, soybean yield prospects continued to be poor for crops in southern-most parts of the state, which have been trending dry for most of the season.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 33
In February, several outbreaks of rainfall provided an unseasonable boost in moisture to Mexican reservoirs. The showers, which resulted in monthly accumulations of 10 to 50 mm, were widely scattered across northern and central Mexico, though concentrations of more than 25 mm were reported in northern Sonora and the border area between southern Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa. In the southeast, seasonably heavy rain (monthly accumulations
greater than 25 mm) boosted reservoirs from Veracruz to Campeche and northern Chiapas. Unseasonable warmth (monthly temperatures averaging 2-4°C above normal in most areas) were recorded throughout the country, sustaining high evaporative losses and moisture demands of winter crops, including wheat, corn, and sorghum. However, the warmth reduced the risk of a damaging freeze in the northern winter grain belts.
34 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin March 20, 2018
Above-normal precipitation significantly improved the snowpack over Alberta during the early part of February, although not before several days of bitter cold on exposed fields to begin the month. From February 1-3, nighttime lows fell below -20°C in sections of southern Alberta and Saskatchewan that were devoid of snow cover, exposing overwintering wheat and pastures to damage. Snow soon followed, however, providing ample
coverage (well over 10 cm) for much of Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan. Drier conditions prevailed in the eastern Prairies (Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan) though snow cover was adequate through the month to protect overwintering crops. In general, monthly temperatures averaged 4 to 8°C below normal across the Prairies, with nighttime lows falling below -30°C on several nights.
March 20, 2018 Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin 35
An early-month outbreak of arctic air raised concern for potential damage to overwintering wheat. On February 2, nighttime lows dropped to -17°C (or lower) in sections of Ontario lacking a protective layer of snow. However, the event was short lived and other locations in the region, including most of Quebec, enjoyed a protective layer of snow (at least 10 cm, most locations). A snowstorm blanketed the
region in the following days, protecting overwintering crops from several more nights of bitter cold. A warming trend that began during the middle part of February resulted in a substantial erosion of snow cover from Ontario and Quebec’s southern-most farming areas but temperatures stayed well above the threshold for damage, including several days with high temperatures reaching above 10°C at month’s end.
3:45 am EDT
The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin (ISSN 0043-1974) is jointly prepared by the U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA). Publication began in 1872 as the Weekly Weather Chronicle. It is issued under general authority of the Act of January 12, 1895 (44-USC 213), 53rd Congress, 3rd Session. The contents may be redistributed freely with proper credit. Correspondence to the meteorologists should be directed to: Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin, NOAA/USDA, Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, USDA South Building, Room 4443B, Washington, DC 20250. Internet URL: http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather E-mail address: [email protected] The Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin and archives are maintained on the following USDA Internet URL: http://www.usda.gov/oce/weather/pubs/Weekly/Wwcb/index.htm
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