Voice of Democracy - Politics Report - In Collaboration with Germin8

The Voice of

Democracy

An analysis of online political conversations -September, October, and November 2013

Introduction

• As per a recent survey by Google, social media is likely to have an impact on close to 30 percent seats in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014.

• 160 out of India’s 543 Parliament constituencies are likely to be influenced by social media; making Facebook and Twitter India’s newest voting bloc.

• Here are some numbers in online India’s growth story which reveal that though the level of impact social media can have on the outcome of elections is debatable; the expectations are not completely unfounded.

– Year-on-Year growth in the number of internet users in India - 40%

– Number of internet users in urban India – 137 million

– Number of internet users in rural India – 68 million

• Realizing that they cannot afford to ignore the Indians frequenting the World Wide Web, politicians and political parties have joined the fray in creating a buzz online.

• This report delves into insights that are a result of curating online conversations around politicians and political parties; and carrying out a detailed analysis using social media monitoring tools.

http://www.iamai.in/PRelease_detail.aspx?nid=3222&NMonth=11&NYear=2013,

http://www.exchange4media.com/53235_facebook-twitter-users-the-nations-newest-voting-bloc.html,

http://www.iamai.in/PRelease_detail.aspx?nid=3222&NMonth=11&NYear=2013

http://www.exchange4media.com/53235_facebook-twitter-users-the-nations-newest-voting-bloc.html















Overview of Content

• State-wise preference levels for political parties

• Numerical and sentiment analysis of conversations around top political parties and politicians in the country

• Topics and issues contributing significantly to online conversations and creating a buzz on Facebook and Twitter

• Likely candidate for the post of PM, according to what people are saying online

• Words associated with top political parties, leaders, and the Parliament

• Most popular politicians online (based on people’s online conversations)

• Most active politicians online (based on politicians’ activities online)

This report aims to analyze the existing online conversations about politics and politicians in India; and thus ‘Top’ political parties, leaders, issues, and buzz words refers to those that have been arrived at by analyzing online conversations throughout the defined time period (September 2013 to November 2013) and selecting the entities with the maximum online mentions in terms of numbers.

Total Mentions – 4.97 lakhs

Congress, 39.20%

BJP, 35.20%

AAP, 18.30%

Samajwadi party, 1.90%

JD U, 1.30%

Trinamool, 1.20% NCP, 1.20% YSR Congress, 1.20% RJD, 0.50%

Here are the total number of mentions for different political parties as they gear up for the 2014 elections.

State-wise Levels of Political Conversations

• An analysis of political conversations across India shows that the maximum number of online political conversations come from users in Maharashtra and Delhi.

• Karnataka and Gujarat show medium levels of political conversations while the number of political conversations from the rest of India is comparatively low.

• We have further analyzed the positive and negative sentiment of political conversations in these regions across the top three political parties.

23.6

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7.46.1 5.5

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State-wise Conversations - Congress

September October

November

Mentions – 1,00,789 Mentions – 1,06,239

Mentions – 16,484

Online Mentions for CongressSeptember October November

•Positive conversations for Congress have increased by 12.39% and 27.91% in Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and decreased by 24% in Karnataka. •The negative conversations have increased by 30.45% in Delhi and decreased by 4.13% and 12% in Maharashtra and Karnataka respectively.•The increase in the negative sentiment in Delhi can be attributed to conversations about the ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit as the CM and the increase in corrupt practices and crimes during Congress’ regime.

Location Posts

Maharashtra 24.2%

Delhi 19.7%

Karnataka 13%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 24.2%

Delhi 19.7%

Karnataka 12.5%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 24.7%

Delhi 18.9%

Karnataka 12.2%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 27.2%

Delhi 25.2%

Karnataka 9.8%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 23.6%

Delhi 20.1%

Karnataka 13.0%

Location Posts

Delhi 25.7%

Maharashtra 23.2%

Karnataka 11%

Low

Medium

High

Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment

Conversation Examples

There is more negative than positive conversation in most states. Maharashtra leads the conversations.There is high negative sentiment in Delhi lately, stating ineffectiveness of Sheila Dixit as the CM and the

increase in corrupt practices and crimes in the Congress regime.

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State-wise Conversations - BJP

September October

November

Mentions – 1,02,003 Mentions – 86,285

Mentions – 18,015

Online Mentions for BJPSeptember October November

From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for BJP have increased by 19.53% and 20.41% in Maharashtra and Delhi respectively; and decreased by 5.3% in Karnataka. The negative conversations have increased by 23.83% and 8.47% in Delhi and Karnataka respectively; and decreased by 0.8% in Maharashtra.The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about BJP rejecting the ordinance against criminals in politics as well as the arrest of Tarun Tejpal and the accusations of conspiracy he levelled against the BJP.

Location Posts

Maharashtra 21.5%

Delhi 19.1%

Karnataka 13%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 21.9%

Delhi 21.7%

Karnataka 11.8%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 25.7%

Delhi 23%

Karnataka 12.3%

Location Posts

Maharashtra 22.5%

Delhi 21.4%

Karnataka 11.8%

Location Posts

Delhi 24.5%

Maharashtra 22.2%

Karnataka 12 %

Location Posts

Delhi 26.5%

Maharashtra 22.3%

Karnataka 12.8%

Low

Medium

High

Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment


Initially there was a positive sentiment around BJP but in October and November the negative sentiment increased, because in October, BJP rejected the ordinance against criminals in Politics and in November,

Tarun Tejpal was arrested; he accused BJP of conspiracy.

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State-wise conversations - AAP

September October

November

Mentions – 12,031 Mentions – 14,346

Mentions – 12,041

Online Mentions for AAPSeptember October November

From September 2013 to November 2013, the positive conversations for AAP have increased by 11.66%, 4.74%, and 6.25% in Maharashtra, Delhi, and Karnataka respectively.The negative conversations have increased by 3.79% and 19.81% in Maharashtra and Karnataka respectively; and decreased by 1.3% in Delhi.The increase in the negative sentiment can be attributed to conversations about rumours of Arvind Kejriwal joining the Congress.

Location Posts

Delhi 29.5%

Maharashtra 18%

Karnataka 12.8%

Location Posts

Delhi 28.6%

Maharashtra 21.1%

Karnataka 11.1%

Location Posts

Delhi 32.8%

Maharashtra 20.3%

Karnataka 9.9%

Location Posts

Delhi 30.9%

Maharashtra 20.1%

Karnataka 13.6%

Location Posts

Delhi 31.9%

Maharashtra 22.5%

Karnataka 10.7%

Location Posts

Delhi 28.2%

Maharashtra 21.9%

Karnataka 13.3%

Low

Medium

High

Positive Sentiment

Negative Sentiment


People are hopeful of clean politics from AAP and showing a lot of support to them. Although there were occasional rumours around Arvind Kejriwal being corrupt.

Online Conversations about Political Parties

Online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each party is associated with.

These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular party, in online conversations.

The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the political party in the same context.

Positive Buzz around the Congress

Positive words that the Congress is associated with:

Proud of PM, Good, Ordinance,

Best

Words % Postsproudofpm 33.99

Good 30.16ordinance 24.19

best 11.67

Positive online conversations include people praising the PM for signing the nuclear deal with the USA, and praising Rahul Gandhi for supporting the

ordinance against criminal politicians.

Percentage of posts for the top positive buzz

words

Total Mentions – 4,019

Examples of Positive Conversation

Positives

Negative Buzz around the Congress

Negative words that the Congress is associated

with: Attack, Corruption,

Nonsense, Riot, Fight, Corrupt, Terror

Words % Postsattack 21.21

corruption 18.44nonsense 6.67

riot 17.26fight 14.15

corrupt 11.99terror 10.28

Negative conversations about the Congress are majorly centred around corruption. The Congress has also been criticized for attacking Narendra Modi.

Percentage of posts for the top negative buzz

words


Examples of Negative Conversation

Negatives

Positive Buzz around the BJP

Positive words that the BJP is associated

with: Modi, Rally,

Narendra, Vote, Election

Positive conversations around the BJP include people’s expectations of improvements to the current state of the nation and a lot of positive comments

about Modi being the leader of change.


words

Words % Postsmodi 33.96rally 12.14

narendra 11.65vote 8.40

election 6.58namoinbhopal 6.36

ordinance 4.90namointrichy 4.66

speech 4.64



Positives

Negative Buzz around the BJP

Negative words that the BJP is associated with:

Convict, Riot, Arrest, Criminal

Negative conversations around the BJP are about people unhappy with the opposition to the ordinance against criminal politicians. The arrest of a BJP MLA

in Meerut also increased the negative conversations for the BJP.


words

Words % Postsmodi 29.18

ordinance 15.78convict 9.37

riot 9.22arrest 9.13

criminal 7.06mla 6.97



Negatives

Positive Buzz around the AAP

Positive conversations about the AAP are focused around its image of being a clean party which will bring a change in Indian Politics.


words

Words % Postssupport 59.80power 14.72hope 14.21

change 11.27


Positive words that the AAP is associated

with: Support, Power, Hope,

Change


Positives

Negative Buzz around the AAP

Negative conversations around the AAP are about rumours of Arvind Kejriwaljoining the Congress.


words

Words % Postscorruption 35.74

corrupt 26.37attack 13.57

criminal 13.17expose 11.16


Negative words that the AAP is associated with:

Corruption, Corrupt, Attack, Criminal, Expose


Negatives

Buzz Around The Parliament

Topics % Posts

criminal 38.82

ordinance 37.71

convict 9.95

protest 7.25

election 6.27

The ordinance to protect criminals, BJP’s U-turn over the ordinance against criminal politicians, and RahulGandhi’s remark calling it nonsense; were the most discussed topics around the Parliament.

Total Mentions – 814


Gender-wise Support for Political Parties

49.29 %

48.86 %

45.89 %

44.79 %

4.81 % 6.35 %

This graph shows the percentage-wise distribution across political parties; of the total positive political conversations from men and women.

The support for BJP is higher than that of the Congress and the AAP from both men and women.

It is interesting to note that inspite of the less volume of conversations, percentage of female support for BJP is higher than the percentage of male support for the BJP.

Online Conversations about Politicians

Online conversations around the top political leaders have been analyzed to identify the positive and negative words that each leader is associated with.

These words (buzz words) are the ones that have been mentioned the most, in association with the name of the particular leader, in online conversations.

The total number of posts refers to the number of posts on Facebook, Twitter, as well as other online platforms; that include the particular buzz word and the name of the leader in the same context.

Positive Buzz around Narendra Modi

Positive words that Narendra Modi is associated with:

Good, Leader, Praise, Dream, Happy

Positive conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a great leader and orator who can realize the dream of a progressive India.


words

Words % Postsgood 20.47

leader 17.17praise 12.94dream 12.28happy 9.86best 9.58

prime 9.31great 8.39



Positives

Negative Buzz around Narendra Modi

Negative words that Narendra Modi is associated with:

Riot, Divisive

Negative online conversations about Narendra Modi talk of him as a divisive leader. Conversations about the Gujarat riots contribute significantly to the

negative buzz.


words

Words % Postsriot 46.55

divisive 42.61ordinance 10.85



Negatives

Positive Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal

Positive online conversations about Arvind Kejriwal portray him as a quiet genius who can contribute to building a corruption-free India.


words


Words % Postssupport 16.85victory 16.85

vote 15.98raining fund 10.52responsible 10.52

genius 9.89quiet genius 9.73

good 9.65

Positive words that Arvind Kejriwal is associated with:

Support, Victory, Vote, Raising

Fund, Responsible, Genius


Positives

Negative Buzz around Arvind Kejriwal

Negative words that Arvind Kejriwal is associated with:

Blame, Fight, Expose

Negative conversations about Arvind Kejriwal include criticism for blaming the BJP for the Muzaffarnagar violence about rumours of him joining the Congress.


words

Words % Postsblame 38.20fight 36.51

expose 25.29

Total Mentions – 767


Negatives

Positive Buzz around Manmohan Singh

Positive words that Manmohan Singh is

associated with: Proud of PM, Best, Brain

Positive online conversations around Manmohan Singh include how he is the best Prime Minister and the brain behind pulling India out from the global meltdown

during tenure as a Finance Minister.


words

Words % Postsproudofpm 80.15

best 10.67brain 9.17



Positives

Negative Buzz around Manmohan Singh

Negative words that Manmohan Singh is

associated with:Silence, Nonsense,

Issue, Insult

The major focus of negative conversations about Manmohan Singh is on his silence on important matters. There are also many jokes about his ordinance

against criminal politicians being rejected.


words

Words % Postssilence 29.66

nonsense 27.15issue 23.19insult 20



Negatives

Positive Buzz around Rahul Gandhi

Positive words that Rahul Gandhi is associated with:

Best, PM, Leadership

Positive online conversations about Rahul Gandhi suggest that a young leader like him is necessary and is best for the nation.


words

Words % Postsbest 40pm 40

leader 19



Positives

Negative Buzz around Rahul Gandhi

Negative words that Rahul Gandhi is associated with:

Nonsense, Wrong, Waste

A majority of negative conversations about Rahul Gandhi include jokes about him tearing the ordinance against criminal politicians and include discussions about him

being an inappropriate candidate for leading the country.


words

Words % Postsnonsense 53.93

wrong 24.55waste 21.52



Negatives

Sentiment Analysis

The online conversations around the top three political parties have been analyzed to arrive at the volume of positive and negative mentions for each, as well as their percentages with respect to the total number of conversations.

A month-wise analysis has been carried out in order to track the change in sentiment, month-on-month.

Posts/Conversations refer to mentions on any online platforms.

Sentiment Analysis - September

September

The Fodder Scam verdict resulted in negative conversations for Congress. Narendra Modi’s address to advertisers about Taking Brand India to the World resulted in positive conversations for the BJP.


Sentiment Analysis - October

October

The election commission’s notice issued to Rahul Gandhi, for his inflammatory speech, drove the high negative sentiment for the Congress.


Sentiment Analysis - November

November

The conversations for all three parties are mostly a build up to the elections, discussing who the next power of the country would be.


Sentiment Analysis Over Time

Congress BJP AAP

52.1

61.2

56

47.9

38.8

44

0 50 100 150

November

October

September

52.9

49.2

48.1

47.1

50.8

51.9

0 50 100 150

November

October

September

46.1

33.9

45.9

53.9

66.1

54.1

0 50 100 150

November

October

September

Congress: The negative sentiment shows a consistent decrease while the positive sentiment shows a drop in October, followed by an increase in November.

BJP: The negative sentiment shows an increase in October followed by a dip in November while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.

AAP: The negative sentiment shows a dip in October followed by an increase in November while the positive sentiment shows a consistent decrease.

Top Issues Discussed on Twitter

These are the top issues that have been discussed on Twitter over the last three months.

Mentions – 10,571

Top Issues Discussed on Facebook

These are the top issues that have been discussed on Facebook over the last three months.

Mentions – 18,717

Positive and Negative Sentiment Around Issues

Positive Negative

Mentions – 24,651

Economy: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones.

Elections: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones.

Government: Congress has more negative mentions as compared to positive mentions while BJP and AAP have more positive mentions than negative ones.

Politicians: Congress, BJP, and AAP have more negative mentions that positive ones.



Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity

Narendra Modi, with the highest fan following across Facebook, Twitter, Google +, and YouTubeemerges as the most popular politician on social media.

Owing to a higher Twitter following, better sentiment rate, and more YouTube video views; ShashiTharoor comes second, followed by Arvind Kejriwal who has a high number of fans and followerson Facebook and Twitter respectively.

Top 10 Politicians According to Popularity

Standing PoliticiansFacebook

No. of fans

FacebookEngagement

Rate (%)

TwitterNo. of

followersTweets

Positive Sentiment on

Twitter

Google+ No. of

followers

Most no. of views for a

video

YoutubeSubscribers

WeightageScore

1 Narendra Modi 66,75,497 7.46 29,04,635 3420 75 10,05,78011,66,362

1,06,910 26,59,796

2 Shashi Tharoor 79,751 4.19 19,87,037 20498 84 3753,22,532

95 6,08,598

3 Arvind Kejriwal 10,23,035 15.73 7,72,611 2229 67 83064,085

1,647 4,78,713

4 Manmohan Singh 4,57,338 0 9,28,864 3734 66 013,089

48 3,75,737

5 Sushma Swaraj 2,03,035 0 7,98,190 2874 60 041,490

584 2,78,465

6 Rajnath Singh 4,93,492 13.42 1,25,448 341 62 019,719

3 1,60,478

7 Omar Abdullah 52,446 12.5 3,88,824 5988 46 0-

0 1,21,988

8 Mamata Banerjee 4,76,302 2.85 0 0 0 0-

0 1,19,076

9 Akhilesh Yadav 3,06,964 4.96 19,840 53 59 029,013

8 85,205

10 Arun Jaitley 2,64,861 22.87 13,587 2 51 05,185

76 70,553

Weightage 0.25x 0.1x 0.25x 0.05x 0.1x 0.05x 0.1x 0.1x

Basis of Calculation

Total weightage score has been arrived at by taking the important parameters of each social network, assigning it a weightage on the basis of the importance of that factor, and then taking a total of each factor multiplied by its weightage.

Engagement rate for Facebook has been calculated by dividing the number of people talking about the page by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.

Top 10 Active Politicians on Facebook

• Arun Jaitley has the highest engagement with 23% engagement followed Arvind Kejriwal and RajnathSingh with 16% and 14% respectively.

• Engagement rate calculated on the basis of number of people talking about the page divided by the number of fans, multiplied by 100.

23%

16%

14%13%

8%

8%

6%5%

4% 3%

Engagement Rate (%)

Arun Jaitley

Arvind Kejriwal

Rajnath Singh

Omar Abdullah

Sheila Dikshit

Narendra Modi

Milind Deora

Akhilesh Yadav

Shashi Tharoor

Mamata Banerjee

Politicians No. of fansPeople

talking about the page

Engagement Rate in%)

Arun Jaitley 2,64,861 60,574 22.87

Arvind Kejriwal 10,23,035 1,60,923 15.73

Rajnath Singh 4,93,492 66,227 13.42

Omar Abdullah 52,446 6,556 12.5

Sheila Dikshit 1,16,934 8,782 7.51

Narendra Modi 66,75,497 4,97,992 7.46

Milind Deora 30,259 1,776 5.87

Akhilesh Yadav 3,06,964 15,225 4.96

Shashi Tharoor 79,751 3,342 4.19

Mamata Banerjee 4,76,302 13,575 2.85

Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter

Shashi Tharoor with 20,498 is the most engaged on Twitter. Omar Abdullah with 5,988 & Manmohan Singh with 3,734 are 2nd and 3rd respectively.

20498

59883734 3420 2874 2229 2099 1779

341 760

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Number of tweets

Based on the number of tweets

Top 10 Active Politicians on Twitter

Narendra Modi dominates the list with 29 lakh followers followed by Shashi Tharoor with 19 lakh followers

29.04

19.87

9.28 7.98 7.723.88

1.25 1.13 1.08 0.440

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Twitter Followers

(in lakhs)

Based on number of followers

Looking Ahead

• When it comes to online conversations; no party or leader, except Narendra Modi as a likely candidate to Prime Minister, emerges as a preferred option by a significant margin.

• The online conversations show that while in terms of percentage, the positive and negative sentiment for the top three political parties viz. Congress, BJP, and AAP are comparable, the volume of conversations for the Congress is considerably high as compared to the BJP and AAP.

• Even as far as online popularity and activity of leaders goes, there is no clear domination of leaders from either the Congress or the BJP in the top 10; and inspite of just one popular leader, the AAP does find a place among top 10 in the most active as well as most popular leaders lists.

• Post the results of the elections in the five states viz. Delhi, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh, and Mizoram; the levels of online conversation and sentiment are expected to have undergone a significant change.

• These will be reflected in our early-January analysis of India’s run up to the polls in April/May.

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About Germin8

Germin8 is a Big Data analytics company focused on helping you understand and act in real time on the gazillions of conversations by your stakeholders and provide actionable industry insights through social listening.

Explic8 ™ is Germin8's stakeholder insights and engagement platform that collects and analyses conversations in real time from public sources and private sources, and converts them into industry-specific actionable insights and leads.

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