- 1. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world MANAGING WATER
RESOURCES VARIABILITY FOR IMPROVED FOOD SECURITY AND LIVELIHOODS
VLADIMIR SMAKHTIN Contributors: Giriraj Amarnath, Nishadi
Eriyagama, Matthew McCartney, Paul Pavelic, Upamali Surangika
International Water Management Institute (IWMI) CCAFS-WLE- IWMI
Science Seminar, University of Copenhagen, 4 October 2013
2. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world TOO MUCHTOO LITTLE
EVERYTHING IS VARIABLE, WATER - TOO 3. www.iwmi.org Water for a
food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY INCREASES WATER SCARCITY
Source: Smakhtin and Schipper, 2008 4. www.iwmi.org Water for a
food-secure world Source: Brown and Lal (2006) WATER VARIABILITY
INFLUENCES ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT A climate with moderate annual
rainfall and its low variability favors prosperity 5. www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world WATER VARIABILITY MANIFESTS ITSELF IN
DROUGHT AND FLOOD DAMAGES Source -EM-DAT: The OFDA/CRED
International Disaster Database, Brussels Average annual
characteristics over 1980-2008 6. www.iwmi.org Water for a
food-secure world IN MANY REGIONS OF THE WORLD, WATER RESOURCES
VARIABILITY IS PROJECTED TO INCREASE WITH CLIMATE CHANGE 7.
www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world VARIABILITY MANAGEMENT
MUST RECEIVE MUCH MORE SCIENCE, POLICY AND INVESTMENT ATTENTION
Better quantification of variability hot spots, risks and extent
Re-thinking water storage Conjunctive management of floods and
droughts in river basins through subsurface solutions (vs just
surface ones) 8. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world
AGRICULTURE; PAGE (2005) POPULATION CIESIN - 2010 FLOOD EXPOSED GDP
WB, 2010 IDENTIFY AND QUANTIFY HOT SPOTS 9. www.iwmi.org Water for
a food-secure world QUANTIFY RISK AND EXTENT 2010 8-days maps of
inundation extentGanges Basin Source: Amarnath et al, 2012 10.
www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world LACK OF WATER STORAGE
FOOD INSECURITY Source: World Bank, 2006 Ethiopia 11. www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world PROMOTE THE IDEA OF WATER STORAGE
CONTINUUM Source: McCartney and Smakhtin 2010 12. www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world BETTER PLAN WATER STORAGE DEVELOPMENT
A need for water storage for livestock Source: Eriyagama et al.
2009 Proportion of water deficit in mean drought that can be
satisfied by existing large dams storage Source: McCartney et al,
2013 13. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE
FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate Dry Season 14.
www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Current Climate Wet Season 15. www.iwmi.org
Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT
MANAGEMENT Future Climate - Wet Season 16. www.iwmi.org Water for a
food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation (UTF-I); Wet season 17.
www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND
DROUGHT MANAGEMENT Underground Taming of Floods for Irrigation
(UTF-I); Dry season 18. CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT
UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin, Thailand (Source:
Pavelic et al, 2012) Land Use UTFI in plan viewAlluvium aquifers
19. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world CONJUNCTIVE FLOOD
AND DROUGHT MANAGEMENT UTF-I desktop case study: Chao Phraya basin,
Thailand (Source: Pavelic et al, 2012) Harvest water only in very
wet years - approximately 1 year in 4 Around 200 km2 land dedicated
to flood harvesting may be needed (< 1% of the total basin area)
Additional 65,000- 270,000 ha of irrigation possible $150 mill /
year - mean income to smallholder farmers Cost of implementation
< $ 1 Bill. Payback time can be 7 -14 years, depending on the
efficiency of the scheme Farmers participation is critical No
analogs so far exist 20. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world
KEEPING VARIABILITY ? Variability has positive effects too, e.g.
the range of high and low flows, their proper timing and frequency
is needed to ensure a healthy river The challenge is to alleviate
negative aspects of variability, while maintaining its positive
side 21. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world 21 THANK YOU !
22. www.iwmi.org Water for a food-secure world GANGES WATER MACHINE
AND UTFI Suitability for UTFI: Prefeasibility analysis first 12
indicator groups of suitability next Potentially suitable are of
433,367 km2, where suitability is categorised from low to very
high