Vision 20/20: Communications Futures - Implications for Regulation International Road Test 2004
Dec 18, 2015
Background
• Scope and scale of change – Power of ICT
•digitalisation, pervasive computing– Seamless near ubiquitous communications
•broadband, network integration– Multiple services
•from voice to multimedia•new forms of communication
– International operating environment
Objectives• Project objective
– plausible scenarios future information society
– regulatory implications
• Dealing with uncertainty– cannot predict the future– certainties/uncertainties/wild cards– develop options and indicators
• Guides strategy
Methodology • Scenario planning
Scenarios are plausible stories about future events and relationships.
Created in a way that is cognitively manageable and memorable.
Methodology•Long-term view
A blend of the:– Transitions of the past– Long-term potential
consequences of trends and emerging issues
Steering Committee• Chaired by Dr Bob Horton (ACA)
with:
– Department of Communications, Information Technology and the Arts
– Australian Communications Industry Forum – Australian Broadcasting Authority – Australian Competition and Consumer
Commission – Network Insight Institute
Who is involved• Participants
– ACA– External
Government agenciesService providers/vendorsConsumer and community
groups Research institutions
Research• Literature Research
Systemic drivers of change categorised into STEEP:
Social/cultural Technical and scientific Economic Environmental Political
Research
• Interviews Identified assumptions and expectations
about future communications services, technologies, business models and consumer experiences
Sample questions• What are the three things changing
most rapidly that excite/concern you?• What is the most difficult decision your
nation will have to make in the next 15 years?
• Imagine it is 2020, you are a consumer:– what pleases you about the services?– describe how important the services are to
your life/work
Interview Results: Social/cultural• Social and economic importance
•Internet - primary means of communications
•Percentage disposable income on communication?
• Potential social and knowledge capital gains
•Forming cooperative and collaborative links with like-minded people or organisations, wherever they are
Interview Results -Technological• Incremental change
•Carriage becomes less and less prominent, more and more important
• Radical (discontinuity) change•Machine learning—artificial intelligence—
self aware and understand context•Pace of technical innovation drives rapid
uptake of nano-biomaterial sciences—e.g. log-in becomes biometric
Interview Results - Economic• Business models
•Tension between current business models and Internet/telecommunications sectors
• Australia•Sustainability of Australia’s economy -
dependence on agribusiness and mining?• Demand side drivers/assumptions
•Business and government productivity gains
•Convenience
Interview Results: Environmental• Energy
•Power source sustainable?
• Electromagnetic radiation (EMR) exposure
•Unknown risks?
Interview Results - Political• Privacy and security
– Is there a government role in: monitoring and surveillance or a market responsibility?
• Responsiveness and flexibility– Challenge to provide and maintain legal
system/regulatory framework that supports intellectual property, payments and identity
Issues Workshop• Scoping paper• Presentations• Panel session• Break-out groups
– Critical uncertainties– Stakeholder analysis– Futures Triangle– Futures Wheel– World views
Futures Wheels
Seamless Communicati
ons
Multi networked devices
application
Trust model
developed
User market power
Regulatory intervention to
achieve interoperability
Universal product
identification
Multiuse devices
application
Competition at user
interface
Adaptive protocols + standards
Geographic independenc
e
Disincentive to invest
Blurred international jurisdiction
Developed
cyber-law
Privacy + consumer
control critical
Value relates to
richness of experience
Geography a
premium
Strong on-line ID
Low cost bit, many
bitsSocial equity
Face-to-face is a privilege
Commercial collaboration, Trade
Practices Act recognised
Service brands
important
More disruptiv
e
Services competiti
on
Interconnect network + sum game
Borderless working
Dynamic populatio
n
Richer applicatio
ns
Stakeholders – year 20042004a Less subject to pressure from others Subject to pressure from others
Infl
ue
nti
al
Le
ss I
nfl
ue
nti
al
Asia Consumers Laggers
Major carriers
Squeaky wheels Employers Europe
Content providers Venture
capitalists
Early adopters
Disabled access groups
Defence/national security
Regulators Media United States
Standards bodies
Luddites
Employees
National Government
Aged
Criminal element
Environment lobby
Law enforcement
Consumer representative
groups
Trade unions
Youth
Service aggregators
Parliament
Vendors
Broadcasters
Research institutions
Niche players (carrier)
Followers
Stakeholders – year 2020
Communities of interest
Brands
Terrorists
Major carriers
Europe
Content providers
Venture capitalists
Disabled access groups
Defence/national security
Broadcasters
Media
United States
National government
Aged
Parliament
Virtual entities
Environment lobby
Virtual identities
Trade unions
Research institutions
Virtual regulations
Self regulation
Employers
Consumers
Pacific
Global Business
Tech savvy
Asia regional alliances
Opt outs
Niche Business
Peer-to-peer network
Middle aged
International fora
Certifiers
Communications service providers
Information services agents
Regulators
Standards bodies
Utilities
Youth Legal
systems
Vendors
Devices
Industry representative organisations
Service aggregators
2020a Less subject to pressure from others Subject to pressure from others
Infl
ue
nti
al
Le
ss I
nfl
ue
nti
al
Critical uncertainties grid
Pervasive
computing
Consumers: more
choice/more risk
Hospitals without walls
USA driver of standards in
Australia
Networks determine applications that run over their network
Moore’s Law becomes true for screens, storage
and batteries
Pace of innovation suits small and agile business
models
Generational conflict
Shifting vulnerabilities
and social exclusion
Making the ‘commons’
safer
Corporate social responsibility
grows in importance
Climate change
Negative effects of
RF
Universal connectivi
ty
Incentives to self-regulate
Global technology revolution
The internet commons is closed off, replaced
by walled gardens
Machine learning – AI- self aware and understand
context
Devices and applications
designed for use by all
Opt in or opt out by choice
Asian/Pacific values become more
integrated with the ‘Australian way’
Pervasive monitorin
g
Global pandemic
Continued transfer of responsibility to
the individual
Certain
Important
LessImportant
Uncertain
The legal system will continue in current
format and be effective
Communications compatibility across the
law enforcement/defence
community
Global information utilities
Digital divide policy to facilitate inclusion through education
and training
Information access
rights
Closed Loop responsibiliti
es
Growing wealth and poverty
divide
Ideological shift,
fundamentalism
Market dominated by trusted brands
Population Policy
Information management
Identity
Unsustainable impact of communications industry on the
environment
Introduction of ‘viral
regulations’
Work is what you do not where you
go
Electronic democrac
y – reliable
and trusted
Lack of responsibility/incentives
to protect the environment
Ageing population
Metro vs. rural divide
Every transaction encrypted and authenticated
Terrorism
Pace of change exceeds
adaptation
Universal service
abandoned
Digitalisation of TV and
radio
Harmonised
regulations
Proprietary systems
Monitoring, filtering
and surveillan
ce
Non-sustainable power source
Content widely
distributed
Communications vandalism
Diminishing role of nation
state
Vertically integrated
value chains challenged
Internationally focussed regulatory
framework
Value is in the
network
Health care
Inter-industry
interoperability
Convergence
Skills development and
retention challenges
Powerful vested interests
More income allocated to
communications
Commoditisation
Developing world labour
source
The Push Pull Weight
Pull
Weight Push
Communications vandalism
Non-sustainable power source
Ideological shift Open source
Consumers: more choice, more risk
Rapid decline in voice revenues
Incentives to self-regulate
Geopolitical relationships
Opt in or opt out by choice
Work is what you do not where you go
Devices and applications designed for use by all
Network intelligence builds itself where the user is
Universal connectivity
Global pandemic
Internet commons closed off
Clear Directions
• Most voted for STEEP results
• Consensus around power and influence
• Futures Triangle informative– Push, pull, weights
Mixed signals• STEEP double-ups
• Cross-reference source material – eg.– Efficient use of RF Spectrum
• STEEP – not clear
• Futures Triangle – “pull” – an idea that attracts
– Open source systems• STEEP – not clear
• Futures Triangle – “push” – drives change
Scenario Logics
The core premise for each scenario
End point description
End point description
End point description
End point description
I
III IV
II
Scenario 1: SNAF Sensitive New Age Future
The world in scenario 1 is nice and smooth like sound of the violin.
Scenario 2: Big Daddy
The world in scenario 2 can be annoying for people like the sound of a banging drum
Scenario 3:Nano-boomers
This scenario gives people variety and has an element of mystery about it. This is just like the sound variations you can get from an electronic keyboard
Scenario 4: Marching into the Future
The world in scenario 4 is fast and clear like an accomplished virtuoso performing to an audience.
Scenario 5: ‘You can take a horse to water….’
The world in scenario 5 is sad and overwhelming like the sound of the tuba.
Critical uncertainties• Connectivity
– Open, integrated– Proprietary, fragmented
• Role of government– Individual self-reliance & choice– Prescribed rule of law
• Privacy– Pervasive monitoring, no privacy– Individually controlled
Critical uncertainties, cont.• Identity
– Formal, linked to ‘real world’– Informal, linked to virtual world– Centralised/discretionary
• Importance of communications– a key priority– one of many demands
Critical uncertainties, cont• Consumer/citizen reaction
Pessimistic:– cautious, risk adverse, crisis of confidence– rights and obligations framework cannot
keep up with pace of change– opt-out or excludedOptimistic: – Open to new services, trusting– balanced rights and obligations framework
Common elements
• Rapid pace of change• Pervasive communications• Work is what you do• Globalisation• Aging/health care
Variables• Confidence and trust• Innovation• Geo-political stability• Generational differences• Collaboration/participation
Gaps in our narratives• Enhanced/augmented reality• Global economic shock• Private or alternative media • Regional dynamics• Architecture for participation• The 3 g’s• Quantum communications• Digital rights management
Gaps cont:• Drivers of productivity (e.g.
Demographics)• Information storage – external brain• Too much choice/information – could
slow down change• Communications requires system-wide
management
Under consideration• Network continuity/security/ID/payments• Monitoring/privacy• Always connected/management of
information • Cultural identity and values• Open source rules, standards, self-
organising processes • Agents (virtual, AI) - rules• Parallel environments
– Formal/informal
Under consideration, cont• Market dynamics/business models• Near ubiquitous global connectivity• Blurring of jurisdiction
– Harmonisation– Unique to location or culture
• Radio frequency spectrum– Capacity not limited, interference not in the
air– Open/closed
• Balance interests• Regulate devices not bands
Under consideration cont.• Limits to regulatory convergence• Applying systems thinking• International approach• Environmental impacts • Promoting innovation• Management of ad-hoc, informal
networks– Less powerful, more localised – less reg.
Process from here• Consolidate scenario analysis• Review/test• Strategic options• Indicators• Preliminary report • Final report• Strategy• On-going liaison and scanning
Feedback• What else should we consider?• Any suggestions for our tool box?• Where does the value lie in our work so
far?