Van asselt h_20150709_1500_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_herpin

From Regulator to Facilitator?

The Evolving Role of the UNFCCC in Global Climate Governance

Dr Harro van Asselt

Stockholm Environment Institute

[email protected]

Dr Fariborz Zelli

Lund University

[email protected]

Our Common Future under Climate Change Conference

Paris, 9 July 2015

Adapted from: Keohane & Victor 2011

Expert

assessments

International

economic agreements

Multilateral

envtl agreements

International

financial institutions

Montreal Protocol

Subnational

climate change action

Bilateral

initiatives

Climate clubs

Institutional fragmentation and climate change

Implications of institutional fragmentation

3

Opportunities

• Accommodating states’ interests

• Increased flexibility

• Experimentation and diffusion of best practices

• Inclusion of wider set of actors

Risks

• Regulatory uncertainty and norm conflicts

• Forum-shopping by powerful actors

• Legitimacy gaps/exclusion of some actors

=> What is the added value of the UNFCCC?

Beyond regulation: The ‘forgotten’ roles of the UNFCCC

4

• Agenda-setting

• Keeping momentum

• Linking mitigation to ‘orphan issues’ (adaptation, technology)

• Facilitating learning

• Orchestrating action by other institutions

Orchestration in theory (1)

Orchestrator

Intermediary

Governance goal

Source: Abbott et al. 2015

Orchestration is:

• A strategy for managing institutional complexity

• Indirect

• Not hierarchical

Orchestration in theory (2)

UNFCCC (COP/Secretariat)

Other institutions

< 2 °C

• Who orchestrates?

• How could orchestration take place?

• What are the outcomes?

Modes of orchestration

Tracking

• Mapping existing initiatives

• Register

Benchmarking and assessing

• Set standards

• Assessing aggregate effects

Catalyzing

• Identifying governance gaps

• Funding new initiatives

Orchestration by the UNFCC: the story so far

Tracking

• Mapping existing initiatives and commitments

• Illustrating mitigation potential

• Registry (NAZCA portal)

Catalyzing

• Mandating action (e.g. ICAO/IMO)

• Enhancing visibility (e.g. Momentum for Change; Technical Expert Meetings)

The case of short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs)

Black carbon

Tropospheric ozone

Methane HFCs

LRTAP Convention/ Gothenburg Protocol

Montreal Protocol ()

IMO

Climate and Clean Air Coalition

Arctic Council

Global Methane Initiative

UNFCCC

SLCPs – Why (not) orchestrate?

Arguments in favour

• Tackling SLCPs has climate mitigation benefits; how does it all add up?

• Avoid duplication of efforts and inconsistencies (e.g. black carbon reporting)

• Link funding to action

Arguments against

• Links with UNFCCC can politicize other venues and delay action on the ground

• May detract from action on CO2

Limitations of orchestration by UNFCCC

• Accountability mechanisms may attract but also deter action outside UNFCCC

• Not all actions and outcomes are quantifiable

• Intermediaries may be created out of dissatisfaction with UNFCCC

• Distraction from negotiations

• Resource limitations

=> Should UNFCCC try to orchestrate at all?

Conclusions

• Global climate governance is fragmented: the question is how to make best use of diversity

• Role of UNFCCC is increasingly shifting away from regulator to facilitator of action at national, subnational and transnational levels

• Orchestration may be useful mode of governance connecting UNFCCC and other international institutions and transnational governance arrangements, but its potential should not be overstated

Merci beaucoup! / Thank you! Further reading

Asselt H van (2014) The fragmentation of global climate governance. Edward Elgar.

Asselt, H van, F Zelli (2014) Connect the Dots: Managing the Fragmentation of Global Climate Governance. Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 16: 137-155.

Betsill, M et al. (2015). Building Productive Links between the UNFCCC and the Broader Climate Governance Landscape. Global Environmental Politics 15(2), 1-10.

Biermann, F et al. (2009). The Fragmentation of Global Governance Architectures. Global Environmental Politics 9: 14-40.

Moncel R, H van Asselt (2012) All hands on deck! Mobilizing climate change action beyond the UNFCCC. RECIEL 21:163-176.

Zelli, F, H van Asselt (2013) The Institutional Fragmentation of Global Environmental Governance – Cause, Consequences and Responses. Global Environmental Politics 13: 1-13.

Zelli, F (2011) The fragmentation of the global climate governance architecture. WIREs Climate Change 2: 255-270.