Van aalst m_20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_room_101

Our common Future under Climate Change Session 2233, Wednesday 8 July 17.30, Paris, France

Maarten van Aalst Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre &

International Research Institute for Climate & Society, Columbia University

Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction bridging science, policy and practice

climate and disasters

understanding risk

In many parts of the world communities are already noticing

changes to climate and weather patters, or ‘funny weather’

Local experts

Example (Sri Lanka): rainfall change

Long term average New record highs

IPCC Special Report

Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters

to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX)

4

Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and

frequency of climate events increases disaster risk

6

Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which extreme events translate into impacts and disasters

7

Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate events increases disaster risk

IPCC Fifth Assessment Report

SOCIOECONOMIC PROCESSES

Socioeconomic Pathways

Adaptation and Mitigation Actions

Governance

CLIMATE

Natural Variability

Anthropogenic Climate Change

RISK Hazards

Exposure

Vulnerability

IMPACTS

EMISSIONS and Land-use

Change

Solutions

managing risk

Managing the risks: heat waves in Europe

20

Risk Factors  lack of access to

cooling

 age

pre-existing health problems  poverty and isolation

 infrastructure

Risk Management/ Adaptation cooling in public

facilities

 warning systems

 social care networks  urban green space

changes in urban infrastructure

France, August 2003 (over 14,000 dead)

Projected: likely increase in heat wave frequency and very likely

increase in warm days and nights across Europe

Managing the risks: drought in the context of food

security in West Africa

Risk Factors more variable rain population growth  ecosystem degradation poor health and education systems

Projected: low confidence in drought projections for West Africa 24

Risk Management/ Adaptation improved water

management

sustainable farming practice

drought-resistant crops

drought

forecasting

• Response: prepare for

more but also smarter

response to extremes

• Risk reduction: invest in

resilience before disasters

happen

Policy coherence?

Key policy frameworks to be agreed the coming

year…

• Disaster Risk Reduction: HFA-II (March 2015, Sendai)

• Sustainable Development Goals (Sept 2015, New York)

+ Financing for Development (July 2015, Addis)

• UNFCCC COP-21 (December 2015, Paris)

• World Humanitarian Summit (May 2016, Istanbul)

… are they connected??

Setting standards

www.climatecentre.org/minimumsta

ndards

Smarter response:

bridging timescales

Early Warning, Early Action

Routinely taking action

before a disaster or

health emergency

happens,

making full use of

scientific information

on all timescales

Seasonal rainfall forecast issued October

2010 for upcoming November-January

Areas that experienced flooding or drought

that November-January

Addressing incentives,

e.g. financing

communication

is key

LET’S

Namibia

Washington, DC

With IPCC leadership, including

chairman Pachauri

Investing in innovation,

knowledge management,

learning and uptake

Many exciting initiatives, with combination of

investment, innovation and influence.g.:

• BRACED (DfID)

• IFRC One Billion Coalition

• Partners for Resilience

• Rockefeller Foundation Global Resilience Partnership

• World Bank GFDRR, PPCR etc.

• UN SG Resilience Initiative

• PLACARD

• etc. etc.

… are they connected??

sample

More resources

www.climatecentre.org

www.BRACED.org

@PLACARD_EU

Maarten van Aalst

[email protected]