N. CHRYSSOCHOIDIS STOCK BROKERAGE INVESTMENT SERVICES S.A. Equity Research Department EQUITY RESEARCH (FUNDAMENTALS) COCA COLA HBC Outlook: We upgrade our Coca Cola HBC Fair Estimated price to 22,00Euros/Share on the back of the published FY16 results. FY16 results showed that the company succeeded in obtaining an important total revenue growth -excluding FX fluctuations- while generating substantial operating earnings confirming its efforts towards operating efficiency, a fact that further enhanced net profitability. We retain our investment thesis as FV as we incorporate the evidenced efforts towards operating efficiency, the organic growth in terms of revenues excluding FX fluctuations and the company’s ability to generate and sustain a solid FCFF. Date: 21/02/17 FAIR ESTIMATED PRICE: 22.00Euros/Share Investment Thesis: FV Key Statistics: Valuation Date 21/02/17 Share Price 23,01 Price High 52 week 23,09 Price Low 52 week 16,79 Current num. of shares 116.915.862 P/E (E) 25 Market Cap. 2.690.233.985 EPS (E) 0,93 DPS(E) 0,44 *Closing Price as 20/02/2017 Analyst: Dimitrios Villiotis Tel: +30 210 3213913 mail: [email protected]web: www.chryssochoidis.gr
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Net Income 343.500.000 314.770.423 366.375.423 376.513.889 388.849.052
Source: Company’s statements, N.Chryssochoidis Research Department estimates.
Table II: Cash Flows
Cash Flow estimations (Ε) 2016A 2017E 2018E
EBIT 506.300.000 504.693.898 578.500.564
Taxation (1-Tax Rate) 113.800.000 25% 25%
NOPAT 392.500.000 378.520.423 433.875.423
Depreciation 332.400.000 340.000.000 345.000.000
Capital Exp. 332.000.000 300.000.000 300.000.000
IWC 12.000.000 16.343.719 2.493.049 -
NCF 380.900.000 402.176.704 481.368.472
Source: Company’s statements, N.Chryssochoidis Research Department estimates
Table III: Valuation Metrics
Growth 12/16A 12/17E 12/18E
Sales growth -2% 1% 2%
EBITDA growth 11% -2% 9%
Net Profit/Loss growth 25% -8% 16%
RATIOS 12/16A 12/17E 12/18Ε
Debt/Equity 0,56 0,56 0,56
Capex/EBITDA 40% 36% 33%
ROE 12% 12% 12%
WACC 6,00% 6,00% 6,00%
VALUATION 12/16A 12/17E 12/18Ε
Book Value 7,80 7,80 7,80
P/BV 0,32 0,72 0,72
P/E 25 25 25
Ρήηπα Πεπιοπιζμού Εςθύνηρ: Απαγνξεύεηαη ε αλαδεκνζίεπζε ηνπ παξόληνο ρσξίο ηελ άδεηα ηεο Ν. ΥΡΤΟΥΟΪΔΗ ΥΡΗΜΑΣΙΣΗΡΙΑΚΗ Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Τ. Οη απόςεηο πνπ πεξηέρνληαη βαζίδνληαη ζε πεγέο πνπ ζεσξνύληαη αμηόπηζηεο, σζηόζν ε Ν. ΥΡΤΟΥΟΪΔΗ ΥΡΗΜΑΣΙΣΗΡΙΑΚΗ Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Τ. δελ επζύλεηαη γηα ηελ εγθπξόηεηα, νξζόηεηα ή αμηνπηζηία ηνπο θαη δηαηεξεί ην δηθαίσκα αιιαγήο ηνπο ρσξίο πξόηεξε εηδνπνίεζε. Σόζν ε Ν. ΥΡΤΟΥΟΪΔΗ ΥΡΗΜΑΣΙΣΗΡΙΑΚΗ Α.Ε.Π.Ε.Τ. όζν θαη νη δηεπζύλνληεο θαη ππάιιεινη ηεο δελ θέξνπλ νπδεκία επζύλε γηα νπνηαδήπνηε ζπλέπεηα ησλ πιεξνθνξηώλ απηώλ. Το παπόν δεν αποηελεί πποζθοπά, πποηποπή ή επενδςηική ππόηαζη για αγοπά ή πώληζη μεηοσών ή άλλων κινηηών αξιών. Οι επενδύζειρ πος αναθέπονηαι ενδέσεηαι να µην είναι οι ενδεδειγμένερ για οπιζμένοςρ επενδςηέρ.
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Σημειώζεις/Notes Οδηγός Συζηάζεων/Ratings P: Τρέτοσζα Τιμή Market Price