Using the National Population Database to manage risk (Kirsty Forder)

www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

www.hsl.gov.ukAn Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Using the National Population Database to Manage Risk

Kirsty Forder

Health and Safety Laboratory

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

• Background

• The NPD

• Populations and Resolution

• NPD Methodology

• Spatial Extent

• Case Study 1 – Managing Risk

• Case Study 2 – Measuring Impact

• Case Study 3 – Emergency Planning

• The Future of the NPD

Contents

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Health and Safety Laboratory

• Founded in 1911 to study explosions in coal mines

• Remit increased many times since: Health & Safety at Work Act 1974 An Agency of HSE since 1995; supports HSE mission to

protect health and safety in the workplace

Large laboratory and test site at Harpur Hill, Buxton

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Health & Safety Laboratory

• HSL is Britain’s leading industrial health and safety facility

• Experience across all sectors, including:– Fire & process safety – Computational modelling– Mechanical engineering– Exposure control

• Key Facilities– Largest impact track in Europe– Test range – Drop-test rigs– Anechoic chamber– Biomechanics lab

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

• HSE’s main concern is with people

• Demographic modelling work came from HSE’s requirement to have a greater knowledge of the density and distribution of population

• This included estimating harm to groups of people from major hazard sites – societal risk

Background

This led to the development of the NPD

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

• HSL have developed a tool to provide population density and distribution estimates for UK - NPD

• Available for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland

• National to local levels of detail

• NPD is owned by HSE, and hosted, run, developed and maintained by HSL

The NPD

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Populations and Resolution

NPD - Population Data for England Scotland, Wales and NI

Populations include: Residential (day/night) Sensitive populations - hospitals - care homes - prisons - childcare -schools - colleges Workplace Leisure Transport (terminals and networks)Resolution - 100m grid, postcodes, individual building

• NPD provides vulnerability, location, time differentiation

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

• GIS based tool that uses a wide range of data sets to produce a variety of population estimates

• Data sets used include:

Ordnance Survey (OS) PSMA

digital mapping products

addressing, infrastructure and

mapping data

Census data – residential and

workplace data

Government data – schools,

child-care and hospitals

Commercial data sets

retail floorspace

Inter Departmental Business Register (IDBR) – workplace details

NPD Methodology

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Spatial Extent

• Population in an area of interest

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Indoor

Night time residential = 13,000 Day time residential = 5,500

Indoor/outdoor

Workplace = 2200 Sensitives = 2,000

Outdoor

Peak time road population = 750

Spatial Extent

• Population in an area of interest

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 1 - Managing Risk

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 2 – Measuring Impacts

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 3 - Emergency Planning

• Office for Nuclear Regulation have an ‘incident suite’ used to monitor incidents at nuclear sites

• HSL developed customised application to view nuclear site details and estimate populations at risk

• Identify vulnerable populations

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 3 - Emergency Planning

• Office for Nuclear Regulation have an ‘incident suite’ used to monitor incidents at nuclear sites

• HSL developed customised application to view nuclear site details and estimate populations at risk

• Identify vulnerable populations

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 3 - Emergency Planning

• Office for Nuclear Regulation have an ‘incident suite’ used to monitor incidents at nuclear sites

• HSL developed customised application to view nuclear site details and estimate populations at risk

• Identify vulnerable populations

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 3 - Emergency Planning

• Office for Nuclear Regulation have an ‘incident suite’ used to monitor incidents at nuclear sites

• HSL developed customised application to view nuclear site details and estimate populations at risk

• Identify vulnerable populations

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Case Study 3 - Emergency Planning

• Office for Nuclear Regulation have an ‘incident suite’ used to monitor incidents at nuclear sites

• HSL developed customised application to view nuclear site details and estimate populations at risk

• Identify vulnerable populations

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

• Major NPD Updates

Migration from AL2 to AddressBase, 2011 Census

• Recently completed layer updates

Transport Hubs, Care Homes, Visitor Attractions

• Specific layer updates currently underway

Childcare, Residential

• Future Developments

Railway layer, Pedestrian layer, Transient populations, 24/7 populations

The Future of the NPD

An Agency of the Health and Safety Executive

Kirsty Forder

The Health and Safety Laboratory

Buxton

[email protected]

[email protected]