Introduction World Agricultural Outlook Board • WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities – crop production, supply, and trade – price forecasts – U.S. livestock supply and use • WAOB mission – objectivity (unbiased information) – reliability (sound data and analysis) – timelines (fast flow to users) • Numerous data sources consulted to determine meteorological impacts on crop progress and conditions
World Agricultural Outlook Board. USDA GLOBAL CROP ASSESSMENTS. Introduction. WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities crop production, supply, and trade price forecasts U.S. livestock supply and use WAOB mission objectivity (unbiased information) - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Introduction
World Agricultural Outlook Board
• WAOB provides official government forecasts of agricultural commodities– crop production, supply, and trade– price forecasts– U.S. livestock supply and use
• WAOB mission– objectivity (unbiased information)– reliability (sound data and analysis)– timelines (fast flow to users)
• Numerous data sources consulted to determine meteorological impacts on crop progress and conditions
USDA’s Economic
Intelligence System
Economic and Trend Analysis
U.S. and World
Weather
Travel Reports
Remote Sensing
Official Country Reports
Attaché Reports
USDA’s Economic Intelligence System
Farm Service Agency
Joint Agricultural
Weather Facility
Foreign Agricultural
Service
Economic Research Service
National Agricultural
Statistics Service
ERS Situation and Outlook
Reports
Weekly Weatherand
Crop Bulletin
World Agricultural
Outlook BoardDomestic
Production and Stocks Estimates
World Agricultural Supply and
Demand EstimatesFAS
Commodity Circulars
Long-term Baseline
Projections
World Agricultural Outlook Board
55.7Wheat
Soybean
Corn 20.3
34.4
78.1
45.246.7
U.S. Exports as Percent of ProductionWheat, Corn, and Soybeans
World Agricultural Outlook Board
76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02Year
010203040506070Billion Dollars
80100120140160180200220
MMT
U. S. AGRICULTURAL TRADEFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
59.9
Exports in value
Bulk commodities exports in volume136.4
57.0 2003 Forecast
109.1
U.S. Agricultural TradeFiscal Year, 1976 - 2003
2001/02 estimate
2002/03 forecast
Change from last month
Change from last year
Planted area (million acres) 59.6 60.4 0.0 1.3Harvested area (million acres) 48.6 45.8 0.0 -5.8Yield (bushels per acre) 40.2 35.3 0.0 -12.2
• Surface weather observations confirmed the development of drought, helping to quantify precipitation and temperature anomalies in major crop producing areas
Winter Grain/Oilseed Areas
% Normal PrecipLess than 25%
25 to 50%
50 to 75%
75 to 100%
100 to 150%
150 to 200%
200 to 400%
More than 400%
No Data
Percent Normal PrecipitationMay 1, 2002 - Aug 31, 2002
• Remote-sensing data corroborated these surface weather observations, providing additional insight on climate anomalies (e.g., spatial extent of drought) and local extreme events (e.g., dust storms)
Higher Resolution Satellite Data
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Source: PECAD
2002 2001
Imagery illustrates better crop conditions in 2001 than in 2002
Northern New South Wales
Moderate to strong:
El Niño
South Africa Corn Yields
World Agricultural Outlook Board
South Africa Crop & Weather Data
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Early planting
Late planting
Vegetation conditions in eastern region are
below average
Source: PECAD
Source: PECAD
Source: PECAD
Winterkill Analyses
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Russia
Ukraine
Satellite-derived snow cover and surface temperature observations analyzed… snow cover protects dormant winter grains from bitterly cold weather in Russia
Landsat satellite imagery shows more area devoted to summer crops in 2002/03
Source: PECAD
Citrus Freeze
World Agricultural Outlook BoardWorld Agricultural Outlook Board
Minimum Temperatures in Florida Orange Producing AreasJanuary 24, 2003
42
20
27
38
47
24
40
27
22
33
3329
34
46
29
28
39
48
49
2225
16
20
24
28
23
16 1918
27
16
31
36
22
30
34
27
22
23
28
34
26
18
24 22
38
Data obtained from synoptic weather stations andthe Florida Automated Weather Network (FAWN)
Major Growing AreasMinor Growing Areas
LEGEND
Surface temperature observations indicate the potential for a damaging freeze in Florida citrus areas
Citrus Freeze
World Agricultural Outlook Board
Infrared satellite imagery can be used to show detail in areas where surface observations are not available
-10
0
10
T(C)
Source: NOAA/NWS/CPC – 4km IR image from GOES 8
02 February 2003
Wish List– Provide near real time availability– Develop new products, specifically those that quantify rather than qualify
• precipitation (values vs. “wet” or “dry”)• surface air temperature (values vs. “hot” or “cold”)• soil moisture/temperature• snow cover/depth• wind speed/direction
– Increase global coverage• penetrate cloud cover• expand country coverage
– Resolution, food for thought…• 32 km x 32 km (20 mi x 20 mi) would provide at least one measurement per county for
most counties. Same density targeted by NOAA for Cooperative Observer Network.• higher resolution needed for some specialty crops
– Develop data archive for purpose of establishing “normals”– Establish user-friendly data formats/downloading procedures