U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey: Implications for Rural Alaska Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Division of Community & Regional Affairs Alaska Municipal.

U.S. Census Bureau’s U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey: American Community Survey: Implications for Rural AlaskaImplications for Rural Alaska

Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Nicole Grewe, Ph.D. Division of Community & Regional AffairsDivision of Community & Regional Affairs

Alaska Municipal League

Annual Conference

November 10 – 14, 2008

Angoon Kotzebue

Decennial Census Short Form - ContinuedDecennial Census Short Form - Continued Counts populationCounts population

Decennial Census Long Form - DiscontinuedDecennial Census Long Form - Discontinued Describes population Describes population

American Community Survey (ACS) - ImplementedAmerican Community Survey (ACS) - Implemented Describes populationDescribes population

Reengineering the Decennial Census:Reengineering the Decennial Census:

Select ACS CharacteristicsSelect ACS Characteristics

Demographics:Demographics:

SexSex

AgeAge

RaceRace

RelationshipRelationship

Household typeHousehold type

Angoon

Select ACS CharacteristicsSelect ACS Characteristics

Social:Social:

School enrollmentSchool enrollment

EducationEducation

Marital StatusMarital Status

Veteran statusVeteran status

Place of birthPlace of birth

CitizenshipCitizenship

LanguageLanguage

AncestryAncestryGambell

Select ACS CharacteristicsSelect ACS Characteristics

Economic:Economic:

EmploymentEmployment

CommuteCommute

OccupationOccupation

IndustryIndustry

Class of workerClass of worker

IncomeIncome

BenefitsBenefits

Poverty statusPoverty status

Elfin Cove

Select ACS CharacteristicsSelect ACS Characteristics

Housing:Housing:

OccupancyOccupancy

Units in structureUnits in structure

Number of roomsNumber of rooms

Housing tenureHousing tenure

VehiclesVehicles

House heating fuelHouse heating fuel

ValueValue

MortgageMortgage

RentRentHoonah

ACS SampleACS Sample

The Sample:The Sample: ACS survey data is collected from every census ACS survey data is collected from every census

area and borough in Alaska from independent area and borough in Alaska from independent monthly samples of randomly selected addresses. monthly samples of randomly selected addresses.

A Statistics Moment - SamplingA Statistics Moment - Sampling

Good Survey Data:Good Survey Data: Sound samplingSound sampling Quality addresses for full sample distributionQuality addresses for full sample distribution High response rateHigh response rate

2000 Census vs. ACS Sample2000 Census vs. ACS Sample

2000 Census Sample:2000 Census Sample: 17% US households sampled17% US households sampled 50% rural AK households sampled50% rural AK households sampled

ACS Sample:ACS Sample: 19% - 50% rural AK households sampled19% - 50% rural AK households sampled Smaller sample size requires rolling averagesSmaller sample size requires rolling averages

2000 Census vs. ACS Sample:2000 Census vs. ACS Sample: Moving or “rolling averages”Moving or “rolling averages” Different reporting periodsDifferent reporting periods Different size samplesDifferent size samples Smaller sample size increases sampling errorSmaller sample size increases sampling error

ACS ChallengesACS Challenges

Response Rate:Response Rate: Goal: mirror 2000 CensusGoal: mirror 2000 Census Places > 65,000 population = 1 year tabulationsPlaces > 65,000 population = 1 year tabulations Places < 65,000 population = 3 or 5 year tabulationsPlaces < 65,000 population = 3 or 5 year tabulations Statewide data requires good response rates from both Statewide data requires good response rates from both

rural and urban places.rural and urban places.

Survey Instrument:Survey Instrument: Mail-out/mail-back surveyMail-out/mail-back survey Street address challengesStreet address challenges 2005 = “unmailable” + “undeliverable” surveys2005 = “unmailable” + “undeliverable” surveys RepresentationRepresentation

Rural Alaska SampleRural Alaska Sample

Alaska Rural Place 2000 Census Sample

ACS Sample

< 200 population 50% 50%

200 – 799 population 50% 38%

800 – 1,200 population 25% 19%

Rural Alaska Challenges:

• Reduced sample size

• Significant quantity “unmailable”

• Significant quantity “undeliverable”

ACS Rural Data ConsequencesACS Rural Data Consequences

1.1. Rural characteristics Rural characteristics underrepresented.underrepresented.

2.2. Survey removals = Survey removals = smaller sample size and smaller sample size and reduced confidence.reduced confidence.

3.3. Marginal sample size Marginal sample size may be so severely may be so severely impacted the data is not impacted the data is not released.released.

Kasaan

Remote Alaska ExceptionRemote Alaska Exception

Classification of Borough/Census Area Quantity Includes

Totally Remote Alaska 9Aleutians E, Aleutians W, Bristol Bay, Denali, Lake and Penn, NW Arctic, SE FAI, Wade Hampton,

Yukon Koyukuk

Partially Remote Alaska 5 Bethel, Dillingham, Nome, North Slope, Valdez-Cordova

Totally Non-Remote Alaska 13

Comparability: Comparability: ACS and 2000 CensusACS and 2000 Census

Target Population:Target Population: ACS = householdACS = household 2000 Census = population2000 Census = population

Time PeriodTime Period ACS = continuous rolling natureACS = continuous rolling nature 2000 Census = point in time estimate2000 Census = point in time estimate

Reference Time Periods:Reference Time Periods: ACS = 12 months prior, shifting monthsACS = 12 months prior, shifting months 2000 Census = April 1, current decennial year2000 Census = April 1, current decennial year

ACS and Rural AlaskaACS and Rural Alaska

27 Alaska Census 27 Alaska Census Areas/Boroughs:Areas/Boroughs:

81% < 20,000 81% < 20,000 67% < 10,000 67% < 10,000 30% < 5,00030% < 5,000

148 Alaska Cities:148 Alaska Cities: 98% < 20,00098% < 20,000 83% < 1,00083% < 1,000 26% < 20026% < 200

Unincorporated Alaska Unincorporated Alaska Places:Places:

97% < 1,00097% < 1,000

5-Year Rolling Average: designed for 5-Year Rolling Average: designed for ≤≤ 20,000 population. 20,000 population.

Ninilchik

Research ConsequencesResearch Consequences

More frequent data, but perhaps unreliable data.More frequent data, but perhaps unreliable data.

Characteristic Comparability Challenges - Characteristic Comparability Challenges - describing the population differently.describing the population differently.

Longitudinal Challenges – 2000 Census and ACS Longitudinal Challenges – 2000 Census and ACS data often not comparable. data often not comparable.

Potentially higher margins of errors.Potentially higher margins of errors.

Limited Test Data - 2010 ACS is test for rural AK.Limited Test Data - 2010 ACS is test for rural AK.

Community Development and Community Development and ConsequencesConsequences

Potentially unreliable community demographics.Potentially unreliable community demographics.

Challenges in tracking demographic community Challenges in tracking demographic community change over time. change over time.

Consequences for planning process.Consequences for planning process.

Consequences for programmatic funding.Consequences for programmatic funding.

Be an informed user - critically evaluate. Be an informed user - critically evaluate.

Questions or Comments?Questions or Comments?

Nicole Grewe, Ph.D.Nicole Grewe, Ph.D.Direct: (907) 465-8249Direct: (907) 465-8249

[email protected]@alaska.gov

Craig