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© 2013 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV © 2013 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV © 2016 Bloomberg Finance L.P. www.bgov.com | @BGOV
UPDATED JULY 13, 2016
GREG GIROUX Congress Tracker Reporter
Update: Senate Races to Watch
Congress Tracker Editor
KATHERINE RIZZO
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ABOUT THIS SLIDE DECK
A version of these slides, which adapts Greg Giroux’s weekly column,
was presented in the July 13 “FLASH/CAST: Senate Races to Watch”
In the following slides, you’ll see:
» A current partisan breakdown of the Senate
» How states split their votes for presidents and senators
» A map of all the states with Senate elections this year
• We’ve marked the seven states where Republicans are defending seats and
President Barack Obama won in the 2012 election
• Of those states, six are considered competitive for Democrats
» A closer look at several races:
• The eight most competitive races: Florida, Illinois, Indiana, Nevada,
New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin
• Three races that could become highly competitive: Arizona, Missouri, and
North Carolina
• Three races in which retirements guarantee a new senator next year and one
party has a clear advantage: California, Louisiana, Maryland
» A list of Senate committee chairmen up for re-election this year
» Data on all 34 states holding Senate elections
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DEMOCRATS NEED A NET OF FIVE SEATS TO WIN
CONTROL OF THE SENATE
If there’s a 50/50 split, as there was in early 2001, control would depend on who
wins the White House, because the vice president would break the tie
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STATES WITH SENATE RACES IN 2016
Mont.
Va. W .Va.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Iowa
Kan. K y .
La.
Maine
Colo.
Del.
N.J.
Mass.
N.C.
S.C.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
R.I.
N.M.
T exas
W yo.
S.D.
Tenn. Okla.
Ore.
Ark.
N.H.
Alaska
Hawaii
Ala.
Mo.
Nev.
Vt.
Utah
Fla.
Ind. Ohio
Md.
N. Y. W is.
Conn.
Ariz.
N.D.
Pa.
Wash.
Calif.
Neb.
Republican-held seat – state won by Romney in 2012
Democratic-held seat
Republican-held seat – state won by Obama in 2012
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STRAIGHT-TICKET VOTING FOR PRESIDENT, SENATORS
Note: Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Angus King of Maine are classified here as Democrats, the party they caucus with for organizational purposes in the Senate.
Voted Republican for president in 2012;
two Republican senators (19 states)
Mont.
Neb.
Va. W.Va.
Ga.
Idaho
Ill.
Iowa
Kan. Ky.
La.
Maine
Colo.
Del.
N.J.
Mass.
N.C.
S.C.
Mich.
Minn.
Miss.
R.I.
N.M.
Texas
Wyo.
S.D.
Tenn. Okla.
Ore.
Ark.
N.H.
Alaska
Hawaii
Ala.
Mo.
Ne v .
Vt.
Utah
Fla.
Ind. Ohio
Md.
N.Y. . W is.
Conn.
Ariz.
N.D.
Pa.
Wash.
Calif.
Voted Republican for president in 2012;
one Republican/one Democratic senator (5)
Voted Democratic for president in 2012;
two Democratic senators (16)
Voted Democratic for president in 2012;
one Democratic/one Republican senator (9)
Voted Democratic for president in
2012; two Republican senators (1)
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PRIMARY SEASON IN LULL UNTIL AUGUST
Kansas
Missouri
Washington
Michigan
Aug. 2
Tennessee
Aug. 4
AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER
Connecticut
Minnesota
Vermont
Wisconsin
Aug. 9
Hawaii
Aug. 13
Alaska
Wyoming
Aug. 16
Arizona
Florida
Aug. 30
Massachusetts
Sept. 8
Delaware
New Hampshire
Rhode Island
Sept. 13
Louisiana
Nov. 8
Congressional primaries are scheduled to be held in 19 states, including Louisiana, where all
candidates compete on the general election date and any needed runoffs are in December
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FLORIDA: RUBIO REVERSAL RESETS RACE
Incumbent: Republican Marco Rubio announced re-election
campaign June 22, reversing earlier decision to retire
Challengers: Developer Carlos Beruff running against Rubio in
Republican primary; Representatives Alan Grayson and Patrick
Murphy are the top Democratic candidates
Primary: Aug. 30
Why watch: A true swing state, Florida went for Obama by less
than one percentage point in the 2012 presidential election —
the closest margin in the nation.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Rubio from Senate website; all others from Twitter
Grayson
Murphy
Beruff
Rubio
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ILLINOIS: KIRK-DUCKWORTH BATTLE THIS FALL
Incumbent: Republican Mark Kirk seeking a second term
Challenger: Democratic Representative Tammy Duckworth
Why watch: The incumbent is a Republican in a
Democratic state and the occupant of the Senate seat
Obama once held.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Leans Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic
Photo credits: Kirk from Senate website; Duckworth from House website
Kirk
Duckworth
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INDIANA: BAYH ENTRY MAKES RACE MORE COMPETITIVE
Incumbent: Republican Dan Coats is retiring again
Candidates: Republican Representative Todd Young
and Democratic ex-Senator Evan Bayh
Why watch: Young was a heavy favorite against ex-
Representative Baron Hill, though Bayh's late entry as a
replacement for Hill gives Democrats a candidate with a
huge campaign fund and history of winning elections in
the Republican-friendly state.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Young from House website; Bayh from BGOV website
Young
Bayh
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NEVADA: WHO REPLACES TOP SENATE DEMOCRAT?
Incumbent: Retiring Democratic Leader Harry Reid
General election set after June 14 primary:
» Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, former state
attorney general, backed by Reid
» Republican Representative Joe Heck, emergency
room doctor and veteran
Why watch: This is the Republicans’ best opportunity
to pick up a Democratic seat.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Heck from BGOV database; Cortez Masto from state attorney general website
Cortez Masto
Heck
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NEW HAMPSHIRE: AYOTTE-HASSAN MATCHUP AHEAD
Incumbent: Republican Kelly Ayotte
Challenger: Democratic Governor Maggie Hassan
Primaries: Sept. 13
Why watch: Obama won the state in 2012 and its
voting patterns come close to mirroring the national
popular vote in that election.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Ayotte from Senate website; Hassan from governor’s website
Ayotte
Hassan
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OHIO: PORTMAN AND STRICKLAND TO FACE OFF
Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman
Challenger: Democrat Ted Strickland, a former governor
Why watch: Typically a bellwether in presidential
elections, Ohio is one of the seven states that supported
Obama in 2012 and have Republican Senate seats up
for grabs. Portman and Strickland both are familiar
faces to the electorate.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Portman from Senate website; Strickland from campaign website
Portman
Strickland
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PENNSYLVANIA: TOOMEY-McGINTY RACE SET
Incumbent: Republican Pat Toomey
Challenger: Katie McGinty, former chief of staff to
Governor Tom Wolf
Why watch: A Republican is defending a seat in a state
that votes Democratic for president
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Republican
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Toss-up
Photo credits: Toomey from Senate website; McGinty from Twitter account
Toomey
McGinty
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WISCONSIN: JOHNSON-FEINGOLD REMATCH LIKELY
Incumbent: Republican Ron Johnson, seeking a
second term
Challenger: Former Democratic Senator Russ Feingold
Primaries: Aug. 9
Why watch: The last time a Wisconsin Republican won
a Senate race in a presidential election year was 1980,
raising questions about what the presidential turnout will
mean for Johnson’s re-election chances.
Race ratings
Cook Political Report Toss-up
Rothenberg & Gonzales Toss-up/tilts Democratic
Sabato’s Crystal Ball Leans Democratic
Photo credits: Johnson from Senate website; Feingold from campaign website biography
Johnson
Feingold
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THREE OTHER RACES WORTH WATCHING
Arizona: Republican John McCain seeking sixth term
» McCain, the 2008 Republican presidential nominee, faces opposition in the Aug.
30 primary from former state senator Kelli Ward
» Democrat Ann Kirkpatrick represents a Republican-leaning congressional district
» Arizona is more than 30 percent Hispanic and Donald Trump's candidacy could
spark higher turnout from that Democratic-leaning constituency
Missouri: Republican Roy Blunt seeking second term
» Blunt will face Democratic Secretary of State Jason Kander, a former Army
captain who served in Afghanistan
North Carolina: Republican Richard Burr seeking a third term
» Burr will face Deborah Ross, a former state representative, in a state that should
be a presidential battleground in the fall
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ON THEIR WAY: THREE RACES WITH RETIRING
SENATORS WHERE A PARTY HAS DISTINCT ADVANTAGE
California: Democrat Barbara Boxer retiring
» State Attorney General Kamala Harris and Representative Loretta Sanchez
competing in Democrats-only November election
» Democratic women have won every California Senate election since 1992, beginning
with Boxer and Dianne Feinstein
» Winner will bring more diversity to the Senate: Harris is black and Asian-American,
Sanchez is Hispanic
Louisiana: Republican David Vitter retiring
» Representatives John Fleming and Charles Boustany and State Treasurer John
Kennedy are among Republicans running in an unusual all-party primary in November
» A December runoff seems certain
Maryland: Democrat Barbara Mikulski retiring
» Representative Chris Van Hollen favored after winning Democratic primary in April
» Kathy Szeliga, Republican whip in the state House, won her party’s nomination
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GAVELS AT A GLANCE:
FULL COMMITTEE CHAIRMEN SEEKING RE-ELECTION
Committee Chairman State Status
Armed Services John McCain Arizona Aug. 30 primary
Banking, Housing and
Urban Affairs Richard Shelby Alabama Won March 1 primary
Commerce, Science and
Transportation John Thune South Dakota
Unopposed in June 7
primary
Energy and Natural
Resources Lisa Murkowski Alaska Aug. 16 primary
Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs Ron Johnson Wisconsin Aug. 9 primary
Intelligence Richard Burr North Carolina Won March 15 primary
Judiciary Chuck Grassley Iowa Unopposed in June 7
primary
Rules and Administration Roy Blunt Missouri Aug. 2 primary
Veterans’ Affairs Johnny Isakson Georgia Won May 24 primary
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LIST OF STATES HOLDING 2016 SENATE ELECTIONS,
WITH 2012 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION RESULTS
State Senator up in 2016 Party Obama 2012 % Romney 2012 % Winner Margin
Alabama Richard Shelby R 38.4% 60.5% Romney 22.2%
Alaska Lisa Murkowski R 40.8% 54.8% Romney 14.0%
Arizona John McCain R 44.6% 53.7% Romney 9.1%
Arkansas John Boozman R 36.9% 60.6% Romney 23.7%
California Barbara Boxer (retiring) D 60.2% 37.1% Obama 23.1%
Colorado Michael Bennet D 51.5% 46.1% Obama 5.4%
Connecticut Richard Blumenthal D 58.1% 40.7% Obama 17.3%
Florida Marco Rubio R 50.0% 49.1% Obama 0.9%
Georgia Johnny Isakson R 45.5% 53.3% Romney 7.8%
Hawaii Brian Schatz D 70.5% 27.8% Obama 42.7%
Idaho Mike Crapo R 32.6% 64.5% Romney 31.9%
Illinois Mark Kirk R 57.6% 40.7% Obama 16.9%
Indiana Dan Coats (retiring) R 43.9% 54.1% Romney 10.2%
Iowa Chuck Grassley R 52.0% 46.2% Obama 5.8%
Kansas Jerry Moran R 38.0% 59.7% Romney 21.7%
Kentucky Rand Paul R 37.8% 60.5% Romney 22.7%
Louisiana David Vitter (retiring) R 40.6% 57.8% Romney 17.2%
Maryland Barbara Mikulski (retiring) D 62.0% 35.9% Obama 26.1%
Missouri Roy Blunt R 44.4% 53.8% Romney 9.4%
Nevada Harry Reid (retiring) D 52.4% 45.7% Obama 6.7%
New Hampshire Kelly Ayotte R 52.0% 46.4% Obama 5.6%
New York Chuck Schumer D 63.3% 35.2% Obama 28.1%
North Carolina Richard Burr R 48.4% 50.4% Romney 2.0%
North Dakota John Hoeven R 38.7% 58.3% Romney 19.6%
Ohio Rob Portman R 50.7% 47.7% Obama 3.0%
Oklahoma James Lankford R 33.2% 66.8% Romney 33.5%
Oregon Ron Wyden D 54.2% 42.1% Obama 12.1%
Pennsylvania Pat Toomey R 52.0% 46.6% Obama 5.4%
South Carolina Tim Scott R 44.1% 54.6% Romney 10.5%
South Dakota John Thune R 39.9% 57.9% Romney 18.0%
Utah Mike Lee R 24.7% 72.8% Romney 48.0%
Vermont Patrick Leahy D 66.6% 31.0% Obama 35.6%
Washington Patty Murray D 56.2% 41.3% Obama 14.9%
Wisconsin Ron Johnson R 52.8% 45.9% Obama 6.9%
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Greg Giroux is a Washington-based reporter for Bloomberg Government's
Congress Tracker publication. His duties include writing and editing profiles
of members of Congress, analyzing congressional voting behavior, and
contributing to Bloomberg's coverage of campaigns, elections, and money in
politics. His specialties also include congressional history and redistricting.
[email protected]
+1 202 624 1846
@greggiroux
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ABOUT BLOOMBERG GOVERNMENT
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