Update of Stats SA Building Statistics AUG 2012 Data Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH 21 October 2012 MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building Economists Tel: (021) 881-3887 PO Box 7119 Fax: (021) 881-3887 STELLENBOSCH, 7599 E-mail: [email protected]
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Update of Stats SA Building Statistics AUG 2012 Data Dr Johan Snyman
MEDIUM-TERM FORECASTING ASSOCIATES Building EconomistsTel: (021) 881-3887 PO Box 7119Fax: (021) 881-3887 STELLENBOSCH, 7599 E-mail: [email protected]. Update of Stats SA Building Statistics AUG 2012 Data Dr Johan Snyman Medium-Term Forecasting Associates STELLENBOSCH - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Vehicle sales show a V-shaped recovery, with a U-shaped revival in the case of residential buildings. In the case of BPP, Aug 2012 data were a little better than July 2012 figures. Since end-2009, BPP Res data are moving virtually sideways within a fairly narrow band
COMPARISON TOTAL VEHICLE SALES & TOTAL REAL RESIDENTIAL PLANS PASSED INDEX 1970 = 100
The trend in the cyclical movements correspond closely; vehicle sales in Sep 2012 were 12% higher than a year ago, with residential BPP -8% lower y-o-y in Aug 2012
TOTAL VEHICLE SALES & TOTAL REAL RESIDENTIAL PLANS PASSED ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Shaded areas represent theupswing phases of the business cycle
The year-on-year improvement in the annual percentage change of the number of houses (left-hand scale) is currently 3%, pointing to a modest revival, with interest rates at their lowest levels since 1973 (right-hand scale inverted). Observe the “mini-growth cycle” developing in houses, similar to the period 1999/2004
PRIME RATE COMPARED TO BPP NUMBER OF HOUSES (>80m²) BPP ANNUAL PERCENTAGE CHANGE
Introduction of National Credit ActBanks' stricter lending criteria applied
The mortgage rate is an important factor influencing the demand for housing. In the past, lower interest rates have boosted housing demand levels. During the current cycle, lower interest rates had little positive effect, because …
NUMBER OF SQUARE METRES of DWELLING HOUSES (BPP) vs THE PRIME RATE (INVERTED)
THIS UNUSUAL GAP HAS WORSENED THE DOWNTURN IN HOMEBUILDING
… the banks applied stricter credit lending criteria during the global recession. They currently view their lending criteria as slightly “stricter” than “normal” given the prevailing monetary environment. One can conclude that they are being more cautious in the prevailing uncertain economic conditions.
Data of townhouses and flats were 11.5% lower in Aug 2012 than in Aug 2011. As is the case with dwelling houses, a prolonged sideways movement at a low level is evident
BUILDING PLANS PASSED TOWNHOUSES AND FLATS NUMBER OF SQUARE METRES
This comparison shows the relative performance of the various market segments since 1987. Long-term trends indicate a bottoming out of the downward movements, with industrial leading the way. Dwelling houses, the largest segment, remain flat
COMPARISON: DWELLING HOUSES, TOWNHOUSES & FLATS, OFFICES, SHOPS, INDUSTRIAL SQUARE METRES (13 mma SMOOTHED) INDEX JAN 1987 = 100
This comparison of long term trends shows the lagged pattern. Against expectations, the traditional long-term pattern is no longer evident, i.e. non-res seems to be leading during the current cycle. Res has lingered for much longer (2007-2012) in the downswing phase than before
COMPARISON TO ILLUSTRATE THE LAG BETWEEN RESIDENTIAL & NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING PLANS PASSED. INDEX Jan 1987 = 100
The BPP indicator showing the long-term trend has come out of a trough, but has since dropped again, with the lagging BC series approaching a trough. These data reflect twelve month moving totals
BPP AND BC: TOTAL NON-RESIDENTIAL AT CONSTANT 2010 PRICES