Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people Local Health and Wellbeing in a changing climate, Nottingham Friday 1 st March 2013 Sarah Lindley, University of Manchester Justice, vulnerability and climate change Full report available at http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/climate-cha nge-justice-and-vulnerability
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Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people Local Health and Wellbeing in a changing climate, Nottingham Friday 1 st March 2013 Sarah Lindley, University.
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Understanding climate impacts on vulnerable people
Local Health and Wellbeing in a changing climate, NottinghamFriday 1st March 2013
Sarah Lindley,
University of Manchester
Justice, vulnerability and climate changeFull report available at http://www.jrf.org.uk/publications/climate-change-justice-and-vulnerability
Vulnerability How external stresses impact on well-being.
A lower ability to respond to stresses placed on well-being higher vulnerability.
The central question: how is vulnerability distributed across different individuals and groups?
1. Likelihood and severity of the weather related event – flood, heatwave.
2. Vulnerability: The conversion of the event into welfare impacts (individual, social and environmental)
3. Climate disadvantage is a function of 1 and 2. The characterisation of vulnerability raises:
1. How should well-being be conceptualised and measured?
2. What factors are relevant to understanding how external stresses convert into changes in well-being?
Geographical expression of the potential for an event to convert into the loss of wellbeing Dimensions reveal a different picture and requires different actions
Ability to respond
Ability to recover
Adaptive capacity
Exposure(Enhanced)
Vulnerability
Sensitivity
Ability to prepare
Socio-spatial vulnerability
Hazard
Exposure
Climate disadvantage
But understanding related climate disadvantage requires consideration of the potential for contact with a flood or heat-related event too
*Land area with significant or moderate flood likelihoods(EA) English mean = 8.4% NB: NOT properties exposed
• Both neighbourhoods have relatively low adaptive capacity• East has population & local physical characteristics close to English norm • West has less sensitive population but a local environment which can enhance flood exposure
Selected indicators – L’boro E
Sensitivity around average overall Higher than expected % of young
children
Physical characteristics balance out to English norm Proportions of basement
dwellings above average (5.1% compared to 2.6%)
but not as built up as the average English neighbourhood taken as a whole
Selected indicators – L’boro E
Lower adaptive capacity - preparing for, responding to and recovering from events may be difficult
Potential for insurance access problems Lower HH incomes £280 (vs.
£390) Relatively high rates of new arrivals 42.3% HHs without a car (vs.
26.3%) Lower than expected increase in
house prices 2003-8 Higher than average rates of social
and private tenants Large proportion of residents born
overseas (20.6% compared to 8.2%)
Regional breakdowns
% of total neighbourhoods in each English region estimated to be extremely socially flood vulnerable
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
EastMidlands
East ofEngland
London NorthEast
NorthWest
SouthEast
SouthWest
WestMidlands
Yorkshireand TheHumber
% o
f to
tal n
eigh
bour
hood
s in
eac
h re
gion extremely high
extremely low
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
EastMidlands
East ofEngland
London NorthEast
NorthWest
SouthEast
SouthWest
WestMidlands
Yorkshireand TheHumber
% o
f to
tal n
eigh
bour
hood
s in
eac
h re
gion extremely high
extremely low % estimated to
be extremely flood disadvantaged (high socio spatial vulnerability & high potential for flood exposure)
Heat disadvantage in England
London’s high average socio-spatial heat vulnerability is coupled with tendency for higher temperatures
England’s climate gradient also offsets some of the low socio-spatial heat vulnerability in South East
But There is a
differential in the tolerance of high temperatures from place to place
Alternative measures required
Socio-spatial heat vulnerability compared to local temperature patterns
There is variation in what drives heat-related social vulnerability
Selection accounted for relative temperature pattern (class 5)
Selected indicators – St Matthews & St Peters
Leicester 018
Sensitivity – relatively sensitive Young children rather than older
0.7%) Relatively small gardens Less greenspace (85.9% not GS vs.
48.3% )
Lower adaptive capacity Lower incomes £160 per HH (vs.
£390) Relatively high % of lone parents
& social renters Lower mobility: personal mobility
&access to private transport: 59.1% HHs no car
Relatively good access to health services & local refuges
Key findings and conclusions
Key socially vulnerable groups: Poverty and deprivation New residents Mobility and access Sensitivity (inherent susceptibility to impacts, age & health) Enhanced exposure (physical characteristics of
neighbourhoods)
Drivers vary local case studies provide further insight
Almost all neighbourhoods will have some socially vulnerable people but the key characteristics of neighbourhoods can help in targeting and designing local measures alongside other activities
Evidence of joint socio-spatial vulnerabilities in the UK – up to 2/3 of the top 10% most socially vulnerable neighbourhoods were so for both flood & heat
ClimateJust - a new decision-support web portal Aim the primary entry point for learning about climate justice &
what constitutes a just response to the challenges of climate change in the UK
ClimateJust will assist users with Awareness Raising; Learning; Responding.
Key element distributive justice with respect to negative welfare impacts, but drawing on evidence, tools and guidance for other justice elements
The resource is aimed at local authorities and service providers working with local communities.
Development/Testing Data/case study work SWOT/’stakeholder’ mapping Wider dissemination