Turley c 20150708_1730_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_15

Our Common Future Under Climate Change, Paris, 9 July 2015

C. Turley1,6, P. Williamson2,6, D. Herr3, K. Isensee4 and E. Harrould-Kolieb5

1Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK 2 University of East Anglia, UK 3International Union for Conservation of Nature, Germany 4IOC -UNESCO, France 5University of Melbourne, Australia 6UK Ocean Acidification research programme

CO2

Ocean acidification and its relevance to the UNFCCC

COP-21, Paris, 2015

Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)

CO

2 in a

tmosphere

Hawaii South Pole

IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch

Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions.


CO

2 in u

pper

ocean

CO2 in the Ocean

CO

2 in a

tmosphere


Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions.


pH 8.12

8.09

8.06


pH in Ocean

CO

2 in u

pper

ocean

CO

2 in a

tmosphere

Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions

Turley et al. (2006) C

aC

O3

Cla

y

Image_ J. Zachos

Acidification is 10 times faster than

at any time during at least the last 65

million years

If it continues at the same rate

(~RCP8.5) it will take 10,000’s yrs for

the chemistry to recover

It is happening now at a rate not seen for millions of years

Surface ocean pH change since the industrial revolution

1850

2100

IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy Makers

Feely et al. (2008)

Some of our most productive fishing

and aquaculture areas may be the ones

most vulnerable to ocean acidification

impacts

Surface ocean pH change since the industrial revolution

1850

2100

IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy Makers

Feely et al. (2008)

*

* It is already affecting

productive western N and S

American coasts with

important economic and

social impacts

Impacts will be strongest in coastal communities relying on marine productivity and coastal protection

Many of these are highly vulnerable and less able to adapt

Societal Impacts

Ocean acidification, warming, oxygen loss and SLR

are happening at the same time

Gattuso et al. Science 2015

If we follow a future

CO2 emissions of

RCP8.5 the risk to

many ecosystems

and the goods and

services they provide

will be very high

Stringent CO2

reductions of RCP2.6

would reduce the risk

but still be critical for

some ecosystems

Management options

decline with higher

CO2


Substantial and sustained

investment, accelerated research,

and enhanced collaboration at a

global scale is required.

A global network of observations is

essential so we know what is

happening, where, and so people can

be prepared.

Western English Channel Observatory -PML

International scientific collaboration can help


Coral reef - Dan Laffoley

The ultimate objective of UNFCCC :

“to achieve stabilization of

greenhouse gas concentrations in

the atmosphere at a level that

would prevent dangerous

anthropogenic interference with the

climate system.

[Article 2, UNFCCC Convention]

The ocean is clearly part of the

“climate system” defined by the

UNFCCC as:

“totality of the atmosphere,

hydrosphere, biosphere and

geosphere and their interactions”

The UNFCCC therefore has

responsibility for GHG impacts on

the ocean, including acidification

Ocean acidification and the UNFCCC


Coral reef - Dan Laffoley

The ultimate objective of UNFCCC

continues to state:

“Such a level [of GHGs] should be

achieved within a time frame sufficient

to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally

to climate change, to ensure that food

production is not threatened and to

enable economic development to

proceed in a sustainable manner.” [Article 2, UNFCCC Convention]

The responsibility for preventing

dangerous impacts from ocean

acidification [and warming] therefore

lies in the remit of the UNFCCC

Ocean acidification and the UNFCCC

Although the UNFCCC has noted OA

on a number of occasions the word

“ocean” is not within the COP 21

negotiation text.

“Ocean” missing from COP-21 text

Coral reef Bermuda (c) A. Venn

Reducing CO2 emissions will make a difference

IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy makers

We know that

reducing CO2

emissions urgently

will make a difference

and prevent many

dangerous

anthropogenic

impacts from OA

3.2–5.4oC

Global

temperature

increase

likely

by 2100:

0.9–2.3oC

After Bopp et al. 2013



3.2–5.4oC

Global

temperature

increase

likely

by 2100:

0.9–2.3oC


However, the current

2oC target (upper

limit) is:

an atmospheric

thermal target

based on CO2

equivalents

does not take into

account chemical

changes in the

ocean



3.2–5.4oC

Global

temperature

increase

likely

by 2100:

0.9–2.3oC


Additionally, the

current 2oC target

could allow

actions that would

not mitigate ocean

acidification, e.g.

some countries

could opt for

reduction of

non-CO2 GHGs

geoengineering

actions

proposed to

reduce

atmospheric

warming

We encourage the UNFCCC to take the

ocean into account at COP-21:

To recognise the high and indisputable risk OA represents

to anthropogenic interference with the climate system and to

include this in the COP-21 outcome documents and the post

2015 agenda

To positively note that impacts to the ocean brings clear,

undisputable additional rationale for countries to reduce CO2

emissions urgently

To recognise that OA will impact ecosystems and threaten

food production and sustainable economic development and

societies’ will need to adapt

To develop separate targets for CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs and

that these targets should account for both thermal and

chemical ocean impacts

To encourage global observations of OA internationally so

societies’ are forewarned