1 This indicator set is prepar ed for user s to gi ve up-t o- date information about diff erent areas of Tur kish Economy. This document is updated at the f irst day of every week. Last update: July 12, 2010
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1
This indicator set is prepared for users to give up-to-date information aboutdifferent areas of Turkish Economy.
This document is updated at the first day of every week.
Last update: July 12, 2010
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July 2010
TURKISH ECONOMY
Undersecretariat of Treasury
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CONTENTS
Turkish Economy in the World Demographic Profile
Growth Employment Inflation Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments Public Finance Debt Management Financial Sector Market Indicators Investment Environment Relationship with the IMF and EU Social Security Labor Market R&D Energy Sector
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TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE
WORLD
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World’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2009)
0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 16,0
US
ChinaJapan
India
Germany
UK
Russia
France
Brazil
Italy
Mexico
Korea
Spain
Canada
IndonesiaTurkey
Australia
Iran
Taiwan
Holland
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010
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0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0
Germany
UK
France
Italy
Spain
Turkey
Poland
Nertherlands
Belgium
GreeceSweden
Austria
Switzerland
Europe’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2009)
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, April 2010
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DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
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28%
15%
16%
16%
15%
16%
14%
16%
17%
15%
64%
65%
63%
67%
68%
64%
64%
65%
67%
65%
8%
20%
21%
17%
17%
21%
23%
19%
16%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Turkey
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Europe
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovak Rep.
Ukraine
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Favourable Demographics
Demographic Profile
Source: UN
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18%
13%
14%
12%
15%
15%
12%
13%
13%
13%
58%
49%
51%
48%
53%
51%
47%
48%
50%
51%
25%
39%
34%
40%
32%
35%
40%
39%
38%
40%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Turkey
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Poland
Russia
Europe
Bulgaria
Romania
Slovak Rep.
Ukraine
0-14 Age 14-60 Age 60+ Age
Favourable Demographics
Source: UN
Demographic Profile (2050 Projections)
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Turkey: Population Prospects (Million People)
Source: TURKSTAT
71.172.7
76.6
50
60
70
80
90
2008 2010 2015
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GROWTH
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GDP Growth Rates (%, YoY)
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 2
0 1 Q 3
0 1 Q 4
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 2
0 2 Q 3
0 2 Q 4
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 2
0 3 Q 3
0 3 Q 4
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 2
0 4 Q 3
0 4 Q 4
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 2
0 5 Q 3
0 5 Q 4
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 2
0 6 Q 3
0 6 Q 4
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 2
0 7 Q 3
0 7 Q 4
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 2
0 8 Q 3
0 8 Q 4
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 2
0 9 Q 3
0 9 Ç 4
1 0 Ç 1
Source: TURKSTAT
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1.5
4.54.44.3
5.3
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1982-1986 1987-1991 1992-1996 1997-2001 2002-2009
Source: TURKSTAT, Treasury
GDP Growth Rate (Annual Average, %)
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14
Source: SPO “Medium Term Programme-2010-2012”
5.0
4.0
3.5
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2010 2011 2012
GDP Growth Rate Targets (%)
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Volatility of Growth
(Coefficient of Variation of the Growth Rates)
1.6
1.31.2
3.4
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1988-91 1992-96 1997-2001 2002-2009
Source: TURKSTAT, Treasury
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16
7,0567,643
9,221
10,440
8,590
5,802
4,548
3,529
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
5,500
6,500
7,500
8,500
9,500
10,500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Per Capita GDP (USD)
Source: 2010 Annual Programme, TURKSTAT
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Source: Medium Term Programme-2010-2012
9,732
9,0968,821
1,500
3,000
4,500
6,000
7,500
9,000
10,500
2010 2011 2012
Per Capita GDP Targets (USD)
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Source: OECD, 2009
Comparison of Europe and Turkey:
Real GDP Growth (2001=100)
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
1 Q 2 0 0 0
3 Q 2 0 0 0
1 Q 2 0 0 1
3 Q 2 0 0 1
Q 1 2 0 0 2
Q 3 2 0 0 2
Q 1 2 0 0 3
Q 3 2 0 0 3
Q 1 2 0 0 4
Q 3 2 0 0 4
Q 1 2 0 0 5
Q 3 2 0 0 5
Q 1 2 0 0 6
Q 3 2 0 0 6
Q 1 2 0 0 7
Q 3 2 0 0 7
Q 1 2 0 0 8
Q 3 2 0 0 8
Q 1 2 0 0 9
Q 3 2 0 0 9
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
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Per Capita GDP, 2008
(Purchasing Power Parity, AB-27=100)
Source: Eurostat
Trend line: moving average
0
40
80
120
160
200
240
280
L u x e m b
o u r g
N o
r w a y
U S A
S w
i t z e r
l a n
d
I r e l a n
d *
N e
t h e r
l a n
d
A u
s t r i a *
S w
e d e n
I c e
l a n
d
D e n
m a r
k U K
G e r m a n y
F i n
l a n
d
B e l g
i u m
J
a p a n
F r a n c e
S
p a
i n
I t a l y
G r e e c e
S .
C y
p r u s
S l o v
e n y a
C z e c
h R e p . *
M a
l t a
P o r
t u g a
l
S l o v a
k R e p . *
E s
t o n
i a
H u n
g a r y
L i t h u a n
i a
C r
o a
t i a
P o
l a n
d
L
a t v i a
R o m
a n
i a *
T u
r k e y
*
B u l
g a r
i a
M a c e d
o n
i a *
(*) Forecast
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The Sources of Real Income Differences, 2008
-72
-100 -50 0 50 100
Turkey
Mexico
Poland
Hungary
Slovak .
Portugal
Czech R.
N. Zealand
Korea
Greece
Italy
Spain
France
Japan
Finland
Germany
Belgium
Denmark
U.Kingdom
Sweden
Iceland
Austria
Australia
Canada
Netherlands
Switzerland
Ireland
USA
Norway
Luxemburg
-15
-50 -10 30
USA per Capita RealIncome Difference Labour Utilisation Effect (1) Labour Productivitiy Effect (2)
(1) Labour utilization is ratio of total hours worked to population(2) Labour productivity is measured as GDP per hours worked
Source: OECD Productivity Database, January 2010
-57
-100 -50 0 50
Turkey
Mexico
Poland
Hungary
Slovak .
Portugal
Czech R.
N. Zealand
Korea
Greece
Italy
Spain
France Japan
Finland
Germany
Belgium
Denmark
U.Kingdom
Sweden
Iceland
Austria
Australia
Canada
Netherlands
Switzerland
Ireland
USA
Norway
Luxemburg
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Contribution to GDP Growth (%)
-12
-7
-2
3
8
13
18
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Private Cons. and Inv. Gov. Cons. and Inv. Net Export Stock Building GDP Growth
Source: TURKSTAT
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Components of Demand in Europe and Turkey: (2001=100)
90
100110
120
130
140
150
160
170
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
70
90
110130
150
170
190
210
230
250
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Source: OECD, 2009
Private Consumption Export
İthalat
Gross Fixed Capital Formation Import
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
260
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
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Contribution of Private Sector Fixed Investment to GDP
Growth (%)
1.30.6
3.1
2.5
0
2
4
6
1993-2002 2003-2009
Private Sector Fixed Investment Other
Source: TURKSTAT
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Productivity Index of Total Industry
80
90
100
110
120
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
1 0 Q 1
Productivity per hour
Linear (Productivity per hour)
Source: TURKSTAT,Undersecretariat of Treasury
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2525
Productivity and Real Wages in Total Industrial Sector
(Per Hour Worked)
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
1 0 Q 1
Productivity Index
Real Wage Index
Real Unit Wage Index
Source: TURKSTAT, Undersecretariat of Treasury
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EMPLOYMENT
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Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (%)
Constructi
on
5.9%
Industry
19.4%
Agriculture
24.7%
Services
50%
Constructi
on
4.5%
Industry
18.5%
Agriculture
34.9%Services
42.1%
2002 2009
Source: TURKSTAT
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Distribution of Employment by Employment Status (%)
Regular/
Casual
Employee
60.0%Unpaid
FamilyWorker 13.4%
Self
Employed
Worker
26.5%Regular/
Casual
Employee
49.8%Unpaid
Family
Worker
20.9%
Self Employed
Worker
29.4%
2002 2009
Source: TURKSTAT
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0
5
10
15
20
25
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Ç 3
1 0 Ç 1
Formal Informal
Employment in the Post-2001 Period
(Millions, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Source: TURKSTAT
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0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 3
1 0 Ç 1
Formal Informal
Private Sector Wage and Salary Earners in the Post-2001 Period
(Millions, Outside Agriculture, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Source: TURKSTAT
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0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Ç 3
1 0 Ç 1
Formal Informal
Entrepreneurs and Self-Employed in the Post-2001 Period
(Millions, Outside Agriculture, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Source: TURKSTAT
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Ç 3
1 0 Ç 1
Formal Informal
Workers in Agriculture in the Post-2001 Period *
(Millions, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Source: TURKSTAT
*For agriculture/non-agricultute distinction, NACE Rev.1 was used for 2000-2008 terms and NACE Rev 2 has started to be used starting from 2009
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Ç 3
1 0 Ç 1
High and Vocational School Less than High School
Tertiary Education Illitrate Workers
Employment Rate According to Education Level(Total, % of Working-Age Population, 4-Quarter Moving Average)
Source: TURKSTAT
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0
20
40
60
80
100
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 3
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 3
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 3
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 3
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 3
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 3
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 3
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 3
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Ç 3
1 0 Ç 1
High and Vocational School Less than High SchoolTertiary Education Illitrate Workers
Employment Rate According to Education Level(Women, % of Working-Age Population, 4-Quarter Moving Average )
Source: TURKSTAT
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Unemployment Rate (%)
14.0
15.8
13.7
11
9.99.9
10.310.310.510.3
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 0 9 M
a r c h
2 0 1 0 M
a r c h
Source: TURKSTAT
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INFLATION
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Average Inflation in Periods (%)
62.7
71.6
12.58.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1983-94 1995-2001 2002-2009 2010 June
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
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6.5
5.55.0
0
1
2
34
5
6
7
8
9
10
2010 2011 2012
Year End CPI Target in 2010-2012 (%)
Source: Medium Term Program 2010-12
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-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
J a n - 0
4
A p r - 0
4
J u l - 0
4
O c t - 0
4
J a n - 0
5
A p r - 0
5
J u l - 0
5
O c t - 0
5
J a n - 0
6
A p r - 0
6
J u l - 0
6
O c t - 0
6
J a n - 0
7
A p r - 0
7
J u l - 0
7
O c t - 0
7
J a n - 0
8
A p r - 0
8
J u l - 0
8
O c t - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
A p r - 0
9
J u l - 0
9
O c t - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
A p r - 1
0
Food Energy
CPI excluding food and energy CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy
Food, Energy and Core Inflation (January 2004 – June 2010, year-on-year percentage change)
Inflation: Recent Developments in Turkey
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
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40
0
5
10
15
20
25
J a n
- 0 4
A p r
- 0 4
J u l - 0 4
O c t
- 0 4
J a n
- 0 5
A p r
- 0 5
J u l - 0 5
O c t
- 0 5
J a n
- 0 6
A p r
- 0 6
J u l - 0 6
O c t
- 0 6
J a n
- 0 7
A p r
- 0 7
J u l - 0 7
O c t
- 0 7
J a n
- 0 8
A p r
- 0 8
J u l - 0 8
O c t
- 0 8
J a n
- 0 9
A p r
- 0 9
J u l - 0 9
O c t
- 0 9
J a n
- 1 0
A p r
- 1 0
Services Transport Services Rent Restaurants and Hotels
Inflation: Recent Developments in Turkey
Services Inflation and Selected Sub-items (January 2006 – June 2010, year-on-year change, percent)
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
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Inflation – Overall Trend
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
2 0 0 6 - 1 3 5 7 9
1 1
2 0 0 7 - 1 3 5 7 9
1 1
2 0 0 8 - 1 3 5 7 9
1 1
2 0 0 9 - 1 3 5 7 9
1 1
2 0 1 0 - 1 3 5
Inflation Trend* (January 2006 – June 2010, percentage change)
(*) Annualized monthly change of seasonally adjusted SCA-I index (3 month moving average) .
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
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Average of 2004 – 2006 June 2010
Inflation – Main Causes
Contribution to CPI Inflation
(Percentage Share)
Source: TURKSTAT, Turkish Treasury
23.9
17
9.7
49.4
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
F o
o d
E n e r g y
T o b a c
c o
O t h e r s
18.8
21.7 22.9
36.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
F o o d
E n e r g y
T o b a c c o
O t h e
r s
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43
Inflation and Expectations*: (Annual % Change)
7.26.9
8.4
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
J a n - 0
5
M a y - 0
5
S e p - 0
5
J a n - 0
6
M a y - 0
6
S e p - 0
6
J a n - 0
7
M a y - 0
7
S e p - 0
7
J a n - 0
8
M a y - 0
8
S e p - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
M a y - 0
9
S e p - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
M a y - 1
0
S e p - 1
0
J a n - 1
1
M a y - 1
1
S e p - 1
1
J a n - 1
2
M a y - 1
2
2010 Target: 6.5 %
CPI12 Months
24 months
Source: CBRT, TURKSTAT
(*) CBRT’s Survey of Expectations as of July
2011 Target: 5.5 %
2012 Target: 5.0 %
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44
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
1
03
4 7 10 1
04
4 7 10 1
05
4 7 10 1
06
4 7 10 1
07
4 7 10 1
08
4 7 10 1
09
4 7 10 1
10
6 6
11
6
12
12
months 24months
7.7End year
7.212 months
6.924 months
Inflation Expectations (July 2010)
Annual Inflation and Expectations (%)
Source: CBRT’s Survey of Expectations
Year End Target
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I fl ti D l t i th W ld
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46
Inflation Developments in the World
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
J a n - 0 5
M a r - 0 5
M a y - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
S e p - 0 5
N o v - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
M a r - 0 6
M a y - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
S e p - 0 6
N o v - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
M a r - 0 7
M a y - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
S e p - 0 7
N o v - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
M a r - 0 8
M a y - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
S e p - 0 8
N o v - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
M a r - 0 9
M a y - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
S e p - 0 9
N o v - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
M a r - 1 0
0 5 / 0 1 / 2 0 1 0 0
Turkey
World
Developing Countries
Developed Countries
Source: IMF
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47
-8 -6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
ICELANDVENEZUELA
PHILIPPINESECUADOR
INDIAINDONESIA
MEXICOPERU
MALAYSIACOLOMBIA
MALTATURKEY
FINLANDBRAZILRUSSIA
S.AFRICABELARUSSLOVAK
ENGLANDAUSTRIANORWAY
URUGUAYKOREAISRAEL
UKRAINELITHUANIAN.ZEALAND
BOLIVIAHOLLANDDENMARK
SINGAPOREROMANIA
JAPANITALY
BELGIUMSWEDENPOLAND
CHILEIRELANDCANADAFRANCEGREECE
HONG KONGSWITZERLAN
PORTUGALGERMANYAUSTRIACZECH R.ESTONIA
THAILANDSPAIN
CROATIALUXEMBOURG
LATVIAHUNGARYSLOVENIA
USABULGARIA
CHINA
Inflation Developments in Turkey and the World(Change in Year-end Inflation Rate between 2007-2008)
Source: Reuters, Eurostat, TURKSTAT
T k ’ R k A di t I fl ti Fi
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48
73
713
6 7
16
37
56
35
47
85
61
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Turkey’s Rank According to Inflation Figures
The total number of countries is 205. The ranking is in descending order.
Source: Global Insight, TURKSTAT
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50
FOREIGN TRADE and
BALANCE OF PAYMENTS
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51
132.0
102.1
108.3
36.1
47.3
63.2
107.3
85.5
73.5
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Annual Exports (Billion USD)
(*) Annualized as of May 2010
Source: TURKSTAT
Annual Imports (Billion USD)
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52
51.6
69.3
97.5
116.8
139.6
170.1
202.0
140.9159.2
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Annual Imports (Billion USD)
Source: TURKSTAT
(*) Annualized as of May 2010
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E t i E d T k (2001 100)
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54
708090
100110
120130140150160170180190200210220230
0 0 Q 1
0 0 Q 2
0 0 Q 3
0 0 Q 4
0 1 Q 1
0 1 Q 2
0 1 Q 3
0 1 Q 4
0 2 Q 1
0 2 Q 2
0 2 Q 3
0 2 Q 4
0 3 Q 1
0 3 Q 2
0 3 Q 3
0 3 Q 4
0 4 Q 1
0 4 Q 2
0 4 Q 3
0 4 Q 4
0 5 Q 1
0 5 Q 2
0 5 Q 3
0 5 Q 4
0 6 Q 1
0 6 Q 2
0 6 Q 3
0 6 Q 4
0 7 Q 1
0 7 Q 2
0 7 Q 3
0 7 Q 4
0 8 Q 1
0 8 Q 2
0 8 Q 3
0 8 Q 4
0 9 Q 1
0 9 Q 2
0 9 Q 3
0 9 Q 4
Turkey Hungary Poland Spain
Portugal Italy Euro Area
Exports in Europe and Turkey (2001=100)
Source: OECD
Export Performance
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55
3.6
2.3
10.0
11.6
2.2
3.8
0
4
8
12
16
World Euro area DevelopingAsia
Middle Eastand North
Africa
WesternHemisphere
Turkey
Export Performance(Average Annual Growth Rate, 2001-2009)
Source: TURKSTAT, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2010
E t T t (FOB Billi USD)
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56
107.5
118.0
130.0
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2010 2011 2012
Exports Targets (FOB, Billion USD)
Source: Medium Term Programme (2010-2012)
Imports (% of GDP)
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57
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Capital goods Intermediate goods Consumption goods
Imports (% of GDP)
Source: TURKSTAT
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Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)
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59
Impact of Energy Prices to Imports (Billion USD)
9.1 9.9 10.0 10.7 11.8 12.9 12.7 12.20.0
1.64.4
10.5
17.020.9
35.5
17.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Reel Energy Imports with 2002 Prices Price Effect Total Enegy Imports
Source: TURKSTAT, Treasury
Machinery Imports (Billion USD)
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60
Machinery Imports (Billion USD)
29.4
36.435.9
29.9
26.1
21.9
15.7
12.2
32.3
0
5
10
15
20
2530
35
40
1996-
2002
Average
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Source: TURKSTAT
(*) Annualized as of May 2010
Foreign Trade (% of GDP 2008)
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61
Trend line: moving average
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
N o
r w a y
I r e l a n d
G e r
m a n y
N e t h e r l a n d s
S w
e d e n
S w i t z e
r l a n d
C z e c h R e p
u b l i c
F i n l a n d
D e n
m a r k
B e l g i u m
J
a p a n
H u n g a r y
A
u s t r i a
I t a l y
S l o v a k R e p
u b l i c
F r a n c e
I c e l a n d
S l o
v e n i a
U n i t e d S
t a t e s
U
n i t e d
P o l a n d
S p a i n
T
u r k e y
L u x e m b
o u r g
P o r
t u g a l
G
r e e c e
L i t h u a n i a
E s
t o n i a
R o m
a n i a
L
a t v i a
M a l t a
C r o a t i a
B u l g a r i a
S .
C y p r u s
Foreign Trade (% of GDP, 2008)
Source: WTO, IMF World Economic Outlook April 2009
Current Account Deficit / GDP (%)
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62
-5.7
-4.6-3.7
-2.5
-2.3
-0.3
-5.9-6.1
-1.3
-2.9-3.0-2.4-2.5
-1.8
0.5
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
CA Deficit/GDP
CA Deficit/GDP (Excluding Energy Price Impact)*
Current Account Deficit / GDP (%)
(*) With 2002 energy prices
Souce: CBRT, Treasury
Current Account Balance (% of GDP 2009)
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63
Trend line: moving average-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
N o r w a y
L a t v i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
S w e d e n
L u x e m
b o u r g
N e t h e r l a n d s
G
e r m a n y
E s t o n i a
D
e n m a r k
L i t h u a n i a
I c e l a n d
J a p a n
A u s t r i a
F i n l a n d
H
u n g a r y
B
e l g i u m
S
l o v e n i a
C z e c h R e p u b l i c
U n i t e d K i n g d o m
F r a n c e
P o l a n d
T u r k e y
U n i t e d
S t a t e s
I r e l a n d
S l o v a k R e p u b l i c
I t a l y
M a l t a
R
o m a n i a
S p a i n
C r o a t i a
M a c e d o n i a
C y p r u s
B
u l g a r i a
P
o r t u g a l
G r e e c e
Source: IMF World Economic Outlook April 2010
Current Account Balance (% of GDP, 2009)
Financing of Current Account Deficit (Billion USD)
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64
a c g o Cu e t ccou t e c t ( o US )
-0.1
4.7
13.6
-12.1
8.0
9.4
-13.9
2009
-6.9
0.7
24.0
-3.0
2.6
23.6
-17.4
2010
Jan-
May.
1.1
5.6
-10.0
27.0
18.3
35.2
-41.9
2008
-8.0
1.6
-6.0
28.7
22.0
44.7
-38.2
2007
-6.1
0.0
0.9
17.1
20.2
38.2
-32.1
2006
-17.8
2.6
14.7
12.5
10.0
37.3
-22.1
2005
-0.8-4.0-6.24. Change in FX
Reserves
1.14.50.83. Errors and Omissions
3.73.14.5 – Other (net)
7.72.31.9 – External Borrowing of Non-Bank PrivateSector (net)
2.81.81.1 – FDI Inflows
14.27.17.52. Total Capital Inflows
-14.4-7.5-0.6
1. Current Account
Balance
200420032002
Source: CBRT
ForeignForeign DirectDirect InvestmentInvestment InflowsInflows ((BillionBillion USD)USD)
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65
1.11.8
2.8
10.0
20.2
22.0
18.3
8.0
0
5
10
15
20
25
1993-2002
Average
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
gg (( ))
Source: CBT 65
Capital Inflows (Billion USD)
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66
-20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Short-Term Capital
Long-Term Capital
Direct Investments
Portfolio Investments
p ( )
Source: CBT 66
Central Bank’s Gross FX Reserves (Billion USD)
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67
Source: CBRT
15
202530
3540
4550556065
707580
J 0 2 M S
J 0 3 M S
J 0 4 M S
J 0 5 M S
J 0 6 M S
J 0 7 M S
J 0 8 M S
J 0 9 M S
J 1 0 M
as of July 2, 2010 - $70.8billion
Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
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68
-18.0
-22.0
-28.0-30
-20
-10
0
2010 2011 2012
Source: Medium Term Programme (2010-2012)
Current Account Balance Targets (Billion USD)
Current Account Balance Targets (% of GDP)
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69
-2.8-3.3
-3.9
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
2010 2011 2012
Source: Medium Term Programme (2010-2012)
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70
PUBLIC FINANCE
Central Government Budget Balance (% of GDP)
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71
-11.9-11.5
-8.8
-5.2
-1.1-0.6
-1.6 -1.8
-5.5
-13
-11
-9
-7
-5
-3
-1
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Ministry of Finance
24 5
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit (% of GDP)
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72
4.5
9.010.2
24.5
-1.2
1.02.2
0.6
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %
Source: TURKSTAT
EU Defined General Government Budget Deficit Targets
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73
4.7
3.5
2.7
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
2010 2011 2012
Maastricht Criterion: 3.0 %
(% of GDP)
Source: SPO, Medium Term Economic Programme 2010-2012, September 2009
5
General Government Balance (% of GDP, 2009)
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74
-15
-10
-5
0
5
I r e l
a n
d
G r e
e c e
U K
S p
a i n
P o r t u
g a
l
L a
t v i a
L i t h u a n
i a
R o m a n
i a
F r a
n c e
P o l
a n
d
S l o v a
k i a
S .
C y p
r u s
U S A
B e
l g
i u m
C z e c
h R
e p .
J a
p a n
S l o v e n
i a
N e
t h e r l a
n d s
I t a l y
H u n g
a r y
B u
l g
a r
i a
M
a l t a
A u s
t r i a
G e r m
a n y
D e n m
a r
k
F i n l
a n
d
T u r
k e y
E s t o
n i a
L u x e m
b o
u r g
S w e
d e n
Trend line: moving average
Maastricht criterion: - 3 %
Source: EurostatFor USA, Japan: IMF World Economic Outlook
Public Sector Borrowing Requirement (% of GDP)
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75
0.1
1.6
6.4
12.1
10.0
7.3
3.6
-0.3
-2.0
7.0
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1990-
2000Avg.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (*)
Source: SPO
(*) Estimation
Public Sector Primary Surplus (IMF Definition, % of GDP)
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76
4.8
5.55.0
4.6
3.1
1.70.3
-1.1
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
1993 -
2002
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 (*)
2003-2008 Average: 4.1
(*) Estimation
Source: Treasury
Privatization Implementations* (Billion USD)
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77
8.0
44.3
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1985-2002 2003-2009
(*) 1985 – 2002 figures include privatizations done by PA. 2003 – 2009 figures include privatizations done by PA, SDIF andMinistry of Transportation
Source: PA, SDIF
Medium Term Fiscal Framework (% GDP)
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78Source: SPO, Medium Term Economic Programme 2010-2012, September 2009
0.4
0.6
21.6
21.4
-0.2
26.7
22.6
-4.0
2011
1.0-0.3-2.1Total Public Sector Primary Balance (IMF
Definition)
0.60.50.1Rest Of Public Primary Balance (IMF
Definition)
21.022.222.3Central Government Primary Expenditures
(IMF Definition)
21.4
-0.8
27.9
23.0
-4.9
2010
21.4
0.4
25.6
22.4
-3.2
2012
28.2Central Government Expeditures
21.5Central Government Revenues
-6.6Central Government Budget Balance
20.1
Central Government Revenues (IMF
Definition)
-2.2Central Government Primary Balance (IMF
Definition)
2009
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79
DEBT MANAGEMENT
Public Sector Gross Debt Stock (EU Defined, % of GDP)
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80
67.4
59.2
52.3
39.5
45.4
73.7
39.4
46.1
30
40
50
60
70
80
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Treasury
Maastricht Criterion: 60 %
General Government Consolidated Gross Debt
(% of GDP, 2009)
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81
Trend line: moving average
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
J a p a n
I t a l y
G r e e c e
B e
l g i u m
U S A
H u n g a r y
F r a n c e
P o r t u g a
l
G e r m a n y
M a
l t a U K
A v u s
t u r y a
A u s
t r i a
C a n a
d a
N e
t h e r l a n
d s
S o u
t h C y p r u s
S p a
i n
P o
l a n
d
T u r k e y
F i n l a n
d
S w e
d e n
D e n m a r k
L a
t v i a
S l o v a
k i a
C z
e c
h R e p u
b l i c
S l o v e n
i a
L i t h u a n
i a
R o m a n
i a
L u x e m
b o u r g
B u
l g a r i a
E s
t o n
i a
( , )
Maastricht criterion: 60 %
Source: EurostatFor USA, Japan, Canada: IMF World Economic Outlook
EU Defined Debt Stock (% of GDP)20082007 2009200620052004
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82Source: Eurostat
39.5
39.7
52.0
58.2
62.6
66.3
67.5
66.0
72.9
89.8
99.2
106.1
61.6
62.3
69.4
2008
66.559.562.263.964.8Austria
53.236.239.643.046.2Spain
39.4
44.7
45.5
63.6
63.8
65.0
65.9
84.2
95.7
103.5
58.8
59.4
66.0
2007
45.4
68.1
60.9
76.8
77.6
73.2
78.3
96.7
115.1
115.8
73.6
74.3
78.7
2009
47.451.852.4Netherlands
64.763.658.3Portugal
63.766.464.9France
67.668.065.7Germany
65.661.859.1Hungary
88.192.194.2Belgium
97.8100.098.6Greece
106.5105.8103.8Italy
46.152.359.2Turkey
43.542.240.6United Kingdom
61.462.762.2EU (27 countries)
61.963.162.5EU (25 countries)
68.370.169.5
Euro Area (16
countries)
200620052004
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 83/184
Public Sector Net Debt Stock (% of GDP)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 84/184
84
25.329.8
2.9
2.7
26.227.631.329.9
26.131.2
3.2
6.5
10.419.1
35.4 23.9
32.528.2
61.4
55.1
49.0
29.534.0
41.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
TL FX Denominated/Indexed
Source: Treasury
Public Sector Net Debt Stock
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 85/184
85
309.8
42.1
47.7
66.0
155.8
24.1
441.5
465.6
2009
315.3
43.3
50.7
66.2
160.2
21.5
454.0
475.5
2010
Q1
268.0
38.4
41.5
60.4
140.2
27.9
380.3
408.2
2008
248.4
30.7
34.6
41.8
107.1
22.0
333.5
355.5
2007
258.2270.3274.2250.6215.3III. Public Sector Net Debt Stock
23.718.013.38.95.0•Unemployment Insurance Fund
38.232.217.213.011.2•Public Sector Deposits
45.730.827.924.725.4•Central Bank Net Assets
107.681.058.446.741.6II. Assets and Public Sector Deposits
20.819.816.114.514.2•Rest of the Public Sector
345.0331.5316.5282.8242.7•Central Goverment
365.8351.3332.6297.3256.9I. Public Sector Gross Debt Stock
20062005200420032002(Billion TL)
Source: Treasury
Public Net Debt Stock (Billion TL)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 86/184
86
315.3
258.2
309.8
268.0
248.4
215.3
250.6
274.2270.3
200
220
240
260
280
300
320
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Q1
Source: Treasury
Interest Payments / GDP (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 87/184
87
5.65.3
14.8
12.9
10.1
7.06.1 5.8
0
5
10
15
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Treasury
Interest Payments / Tax Revenues (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 88/184
88Source: Ministry of Finance
33.430.930.1
31.9
85.9
71.0
56.3
38.2
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
100
Composition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 89/184
89
58.146.3 41.5 37.6 37.2
31.3 33.8 29.1 28.6
26.4
29.428.5 31.8 30.5
33.6 33.0 38.1 38.8
15.524.3
30.0 30.6 32.3 35.1 33.2 32.8 32.6
0
25
50
75
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
May
Foreign Exch. TL (Floating) TL (Fixed)Source: Treasury
Interest Decomposition of Central Government Gross
Debt (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 90/184
90
45.0 48.8 53.8 50.1 54.0 55.7 56.9 53.4 52.8
55.0 51.2 46.2 49.9 46.0 44.3 43.1 46.6 47.2
0
25
50
75
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010May
Fixed Floating
Debt (%)
Source: Treasury
Currency Decomposition of Central Government Gross Debt (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 91/184
91
41.953.7 58.5 62.4 62.8
68.7 66.2 70.9 71.4
58.1
46.3 41.5 37.6 37.231.3 33.8 29.1 28.6
0
25
50
75
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010May
TL Foreign Exch.
Source: Treasury
Sensitivity of Gross Public Debt to Shocks
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 92/184
92
+ / - 0.9 Points+ / - 1.5 Points
2 percentage points change in GDP
Growth Rate
+ / - 1.0 Points+ / - 1.0 Points1 percentage point change in PrimarySurplus/GDP ratio
2001 2009
5 percentage points change in realexchange rate + / - 2.2 Points + / - 0.7 Points
5 percentage points change inTL Real Interest Rate + / - 1.6 Points + / - 1.6 Points
Note: The effects of scenarios on “Gross Public Debt Stock/GDP” ratio measured by deviations from baselinescenarios (as defined by ESA standards) based on end-2001 and end-2009 stock realizations.
Source: Treasury
Share of Foreign Residents in Domestic Debt Stock (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 93/184
93
Source: Treasury
4.4
10.610.2
9.1
8.5
9.18.98.5
8.89.7
10.3
13.413.6
10.3
7.1
8.8
8.4
9.09.1 9.2 9.2
8.9 8.6
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
200320042005200620072008 Jan-
09
Feb-
09
Mar-
09
Apr-
09
May-
09
Jun-
09
Jul-
09
Aug-
09
Sep-
09
Oct-
09
Nov-
09
Dec-
09
Jan-
10
Feb-
10
Mar-
10
Apr-
10
May-
10
Average Maturity of Borrowing
D ti B i ( th ) E b d I ( )
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 94/184
94
Domestic Borrowing (months) Eurobond Issuance (years)
(*) As of July 9
Source: Treasury
912
15
3235
41
34
2828
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
8.29.5
10.1
12.2
10.1
17.616.5
22.4
14.214.8
9.1
24.0
6.65.0
7.0
8.6
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Euro Dollar
Duration of TL-Denominated Domestic Debt Stock
(Months)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 95/184
95
8.78.58.4
9.7
9.3
9.0
9.2
7.5
8.2
8.5
7.57.5
8.38.08.18.1
10.2
8.28.0
6.6
9.08.8
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
D e c . 0 4
D e c . 0 5
D e c . 0 6
D e c . 0 7
D e c . 0 8
J a n . 0 9
F e b . 0 9
3 / 1
A p r . 0 9
M a y . 0 9
J u n . 0 9
J u l . 0 9
A u g . 0 9
S e p . 0 9
O c t . 0 9
N o v . 0 9
D e c . 0 9
J a n . 1 0
F e b . 1 0
M a r . 1 0
A p r . 1 0
M a y . 1 0
Source: Treasury
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 96/184
Time to Maturity of Cash Domestic Debt Stock (Months)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 97/184
97
12.8 12.4 11.8
19.6
22.3
25.724.4 25.0
28.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May-10
Source: Treasury
Cost of External Borrowing (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 98/184
98
EURODOLLAR
5.26.0
5.45.3
6.3
9.9 9.9
3
4
5
67
8
9
10
11
12
13
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010*
* As of July 9
Source: Treasury
10.7
7.07.3
6.5
10.1
8.1
6.97.37.3
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
TRY Denominated Zero Coupon Borrowing Rates
(Comp. Ann., %)80
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 99/184
99
Source: Treasury
5
10
15
20
25
3035
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
J
02
A J O J
03
A J O J
04
A J O J
05
A J O J
06
A J O J
07
A J O J
08
A J O J
09
A J O J
10
A
Monthly Average
Yearly Cumulative
Real Interest Rates (Comp. Ann., %)
50
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 100/184
100
Note: The real interest rates are calculated by using 12 months ahead CPI rates.Calculations are based on zero coupon Treasury auction results and Survey of Expectations of CBRT.Source: CBRT, Treasury
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2 0 0
2 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
3 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
4 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
5 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
6 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
7 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
8 - 1 5 9
2 0 0
9 - 1 5 9
2 0 1
0 - 1 5
8 010
Net Financing from IMF (Billion SDR)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 101/184
101
0.4 0.0
-0.6
2.6
8.0
5.0
-2.4
-3.6-3.1 -2.6
1.0
-0.5
-1.4 -1.8 -1.3
-6
-2
2
6
1 9
9 9
2 0
0 0
2 0
0 1
2 0
0 2
2 0
0 3
2 0
0 4
2 0
0 5
2 0
0 6
2 0
0 7
2 0
0 8
2 0
0 9
2 0
1 0
2 0
1 1
2 0
1 2
2 0
1 3
Source: Treasury
Credit Outstanding to IMF (Billion SDR)
20
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 102/184
102
Source: Treasury
16.2
13.8
10.2
7.2
3.6
1.9
0.50.0
5.15.5
11.2
16.2
3.2
0.6
4.5
0
4
8
12
16
1 9 9 9
2 0 0 0
2 0 0 1
2 0 0 2
2 0 0 3
2 0 0 4
2 0 0 5
2 0 0 6
2 0 0 7
2 0 0 8
2 0 0 9
2 0 1 0
2 0 1 1
2 0 1 2
2 0 1 3
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock (Million USD)
8,000
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 103/184
103
7,468
6,395
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010Q1
Source: Treasury
Treasury Guaranteed Debt Stock
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 104/184
104
Source: Treasury
6,395GENERAL TOTAL
163COMPANIES
2,863BANKS
3,026PRIVATE12OTHER
1,174SOEs
859PUBLIC BANKS
90FUNDS
1,234LOCAL GOVERNMENTS
3,369PUBLIC
2010 Q1Million USD
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 105/184
105
52
27
18 1720
25
18
25
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
May
Source: Treasury
The Ratio of Undertaken Treasury Guarantees to Total
Guaranteed Payments by Institutions (%)
100
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 106/184
106
19
65
25
61
42
6
76
36
83
25
74
21
33
50
21
38
10
0
20
40
60
80
100
Total Local
Administrations
Special
Budgeted Inst.
SOEs Funds Banks
1992-2002 2003-2005 2006-2008 2009 2010-May
Source: Treasury
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (Billion TL)
3028 1
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 107/184
107
5.66.8
13.8
19.3
21.2
23.4
20.8
25,6
20.9
25.6
Source: Treasury
1.8 2.4
6.3 5.9
8.8
12.9
7.5 7.1 7.3 8.2 9.07.83.8
4.4
7.5
13.4
12.4
10.5
13.315.3
13.6
17.4
19.1
17.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May-10
Overdue Projected
22.4
28.1
The Stock of Treasury Receivables (May 2010)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 108/184
108
By SourcesBy Borrowers
Source: Treasury
Local Governments
56%
SOEs25.6%
Others
14.7%
Banks3.7%
Guaranteed30.4%
On - Lent39.2%
Built-Operate-Transfer (BOT) Projects
14.6%
Domestic Debt
15.8%
5,500
Collections (Million USD)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 109/184
109
1,048.6
254.2
1,143.9 1,218.7
548.2
3,885.1
1,424.91,156.6
996.0
25.6
0.5
1,305.4
2,441.8
1,060.7
2,422.91,504.5
-500
500
1,500
2,500
3,500
4,500
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 May-10
Non-cash CashSource: Treasury
Gross External Debt Stock (Billion USD)
2010
Q1200920082007200620052004Billion $
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 110/184
110
Source: Treasury
121.1127.3139.3121.582.350.736.8LONG TERM
48.144.245.338.738.333.427.1SHORT TERM
169.2171.5184.7160.2120.684.163.9PRIVATE SECTOR
10.911.512.213.513.112.718.1LONG TERM
1.71.81.92.32.62.83.3SHORT TERM
12.513.314.115.815.715.421.4CBRT
80.279.875.071.469.868.373.8LONG TERM
4.73.63.22.21.82.11.8SHORT TERM
84.983.478.373.571.670.475.7PUBLIC SECTOR
212.1218.6226.6206.4165.2131.6128.8LONG TERM
54.549.650.443.142.638.332.2SHORT TERM
266.6268.2277.0249.6207.8169.9161.0TOTAL
Gross External Debt Stock / GDP
60
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 111/184
111
37.3
43.4
38.539.5
35.3
41.2
47.3
56.2
30
40
50
60
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Treasury
50
Turkey’s Net External Debt (% of GDP)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 112/184
112
23.620.5 20.320.620.6
39.938.4
31.6
26.4
10
20
30
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Source: Treasury
External Debt Ratios (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 113/184
113
Source: Treasury
127.5142.6140.8170.0142.9132.0111.8
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
SHORT TERM EXTERNAL DEBT
26.026.425.629.429.329.722.4
CBRT RESERVES (GROSS) /
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT
161.0167.9139.9149.4140.9114.4101.2
PRIVATE SECTOR / EXPORT
(FOB)
253.7262.6209.8232.6243.0231.2254.8
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT /
EXPORT (FOB)
27.824.924.722.917.516.4
PRIVATE SECTOR EXTERNAL
DEBT / GDP %
43.437.338.539.535.341.2
GROSS EXTERNAL DEBT STOCK /
GDP %
2010 Q1200920082007200620052004%
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 114/184
114
FINANCIAL SECTOR
Banking Sector: Capital Adequacy Ratio (%)
30.935
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 115/184
115
Source: BRSA
25.1
28.2
23.7
21.9 18.9 18.020.6 19.5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2 0 0
2
2 0 0
3
2 0 0
4
2 0 0
5
2 0 0
6
2 0 0
7
2 0 0
8
2 0 0
9
2 0 1 0 -
5
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 116/184
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 117/184
Banking Sector: Free Capital*/ Equity (%)
65 7
72.6 75.3 77.0 79.680.7
80
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 118/184
118
(*) Free Capital = Total Equity – (Fixed Assets + Affiliates, Subsidiaries and Joint Ventures)
Source: BRSA
36.3
51.056.0
65.7
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-5
Banking Sector: Return on Equity (%)
35
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 119/184
119
Source: BRSA
11.3
18.215.8
12.1
21.0
24.8
18.622.8
10.5 9.4
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2009-5 2010-5
Banking Sector: Loans to Assets (%)
50 050 255
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 120/184
120
Source: BRSA
50.0
47.1
50.249.1
43.8
37.8
32.4
26.5
23.0
15
25
35
45
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-5
Banking Sector: FX Position (Million USD)
1000
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 121/184
121
(*) As of June 25Source: BRSA
-549
187
-71 -63
141
-217
16
408
672
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
June*
Banking Sector: Asset Quality (NPL Ratio, %)
21.2
20
24
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 122/184
122
Source: BRSA
11.5
6.04.7
3.7 3.5 3.75.3 4.9
0.80.9
7.6
1.50.8 0.80.50.40.6
0
4
8
12
16
20
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010-5
Gross Net
Firms Total Debt / Shareholder’s Equity and Interest
Coverage
(Operating Profit / Interest Payment) Ratios (%)
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 123/184
123
Sorce: CBRT Company Accounts(*) Provisional Statistics
0
50
100150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008Total Debt / Shareholder's Equity Interest Coverage Ratio
Household Liabilities (% of GDP)
59 60 6164
60
70
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 124/184
124
1012 14 15
0
10
20
30
40
50
2006 2007 2008 2009Turkey Euro Area
Source: CBRT, ECB
Total Housing Loans (% of GDP)
85 0
100
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 125/184
125
Source: FED, ECB, IMF, CBRT
85.0
74.7
47.0
3.60.2
60.3
52.1
32.5
0
20
40
60
80
UK US EU-25 Turkey
2001 2007
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 126/184
126
MARKET INDICATORS
Foreign Exchange Rates (TL/USD)
1,70
1,80
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 127/184
127Source: CBRT
1,00
1,10
1,20
1,30
1,40
1,50
1,60
J a n - 0 3
A p r - 0 3
J u l - 0 3
O c t - 0 3
J a n - 0 4
A p r - 0 4
J u l - 0 4
O c t - 0 4
J a n - 0 5
A p r - 0 5
J u l - 0 5
O c t - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
A p r - 0 6
J u l - 0 6
O c t - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
J u l - 0 7
O c t - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
J u l - 0 8
O c t - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
J u l - 0 9
O c t - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u l - 1 0
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 128/184
ISE 100 Index
55.000
60.000
8/8/2019 Turkish Economy 2010July
http://slidepdf.com/reader/full/turkish-economy-2010july 129/184
129
5.000
10.000
15.000
20.000
25.000
30.000
35.000
40.000
45.000
50.000
J a n - 0 3
A p r - 0 3
J u
l - 0 3
O c
t - 0 3
J a n - 0 4
A p r - 0 4
J u
l - 0 4
O c
t - 0 4
J a n - 0 5
A p r - 0 5
J u
l - 0 5
O c
t - 0 5
J a n - 0 6
A p r - 0 6
J u
l - 0 6
O c
t - 0 6
J a n - 0 7
A p r - 0 7
J u
l - 0 7
O c
t - 0 7
J a n - 0 8
A p r - 0 8
J u
l - 0 8
O c
t - 0 8
J a n - 0 9
A p r - 0 9
J u
l - 0 9
O c
t - 0 9
J a n - 1 0
A p r - 1 0
J u
l - 1 0
Source: ISE
Spreads on Turkey’s External Debt (bp)
1,000
1,200
(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)
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130Source: JP Morgan
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
800
D - 0 0
M - 0 1
J - 0 1
S - 0 1
D - 0 1
M - 0 2
J - 0 2
S - 0 2
D - 0 2
M - 0 3
J - 0 3
S - 0 3
D - 0 3
F - 0 4
M - 0 4
A - 0 4
N - 0 4
F - 0 5
M - 0 5
A - 0 5
N - 0 5
F - 0 6
M - 0 6
A - 0 6
N - 0 6
F - 0 7
M - 0 7
J - 0 7
O - 0 7
J - 0 8
A - 0 8
J - 0 8
O - 0 8
J - 0 9
A - 0 9
J - 0 9
O - 0 9
J - 1 0
A - 1 0
J - 1 0
(EMBI+ Turkey) - (EMBI+)
EMBI+ Turkey
EMBI+
Secondary Market and CBRT Overnight Interest Rates
22
24
e ( % )
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131Source: CBRT, Treasury
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
J a n - 0
5
M a r - 0
5
M a y - 0
5
J u
l - 0 5
S e p - 0
5
N o v - 0
5
J a n - 0
6
M a r - 0
6
M a y - 0
6
J u
l - 0 6
S e p - 0
6
N o v - 0
6
J a n - 0
7
M a r - 0
7
M a y - 0
7
J u
l - 0 7
S e p - 0
7
N o v - 0
7
J a n - 0
8
M a r - 0
8
M a y - 0
8
J u
l - 0 8
S e p - 0
8
N o v - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
M a r - 0
9
M a y - 0
9
J u
l - 0 9
S e p - 0
9
N o v - 0
9
J a n - 1
0
M a r - 1
0
M a y - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
C o m p o u n
d e
d I n t e r e
s t R a
t e
Secondary Market Rate CBRT Overnight Rates
Credit Rating
Standard & Poor’s Credit Rating
S
P
BB
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132Source: Bloomberg
J a n - 0
3
M a y - 0
3
O c
t - 0 3
F e
b - 0
4
J u
l - 0 4
N o v - 0
4
A p r - 0
5
A u g - 0
5
J a n - 0
6
M a y - 0
6
O c
t - 0 6
F e
b - 0
7
J u
l - 0 7
N o v - 0
7
A p r - 0
8
A u g - 0
8
J a n - 0
9
M a y - 0
9
O c
t - 0 9
F e
b - 1
0
J u
l - 1 0
N
SP
BB-
N
S
P
B+
N
S
P
B
NS
P
B-
N
Turkey’s Sovereign Credit Rating (July 9, 2010)
A2 Bahrain, Poland A Bahrain, Czech Rep., Estonia A Bahrain, Chile, Israel
Israel, Malta, S. Korea
A3 Malaysia, S. Africa A- Malaysia, Poland A- Malaysia, Poland
Portugal
Baa1 Mexico, Montenegro, Lithuania BBB+ S. Africa BBB+ Estonia, S. Africa
Russia, Thailand, Hungary Thailand
Moody's Standard & Poor's Fitch
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133
Baa2 Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan BBB Bulgaria, Croatia, Mexico BBB Hungary, Lithuania, Mexico
Tunisia Russia, Tunisia, Lithuania Russia, Tunisia, Thailand
Baa3 Armenia, Bulgaria, Croatia, India, Iceland BBB- Brazil, Colombia, Iceland, India, Kazakhstan BBB- Azerbaijan, Brazil, Bulgaria, Croatia, Greece,
Latvia, Romania, Brazil, Panama, Peru Morocco, Panama, Peru, Hungary India, Morocco, Panama, Peru, Kazakhstan
Ba1 Albania, Colombia, Costa Rica BB+ Azerbaijan, Egypt BB+ Turkey (stable), Colombia
Egypt, El Salvador, Greece Greece, Romania Egypt, Guatemala, Latvia, Macedonia
Guatemala, Morocco Romania, Iceland, Indonesia
Ba2 Turkey (stable), Belarus BB Turkey (positive), Cook Islands, Costa Rica BB Costa Rica,
Jordan, Indonesia, Papua New Guinea Indonesia, Guatemala, Jordan, Vietnam Philippines,
Suriname El Salvador, Uruguay, Latvia, Macedonia El Salvador
Ba3 Philippines, Uruguay BB- Gabon, Mongolia, BB- Gabon, Lesotho, Nigeria,
Vietnam Philippines, Serbia, Venezuela Serbia, Vietnam, Uruguay, Armenia,
B1 Fiji, Lebanon B+ Bosnia & H., Georgia, Ghana, B+ Georgia, Iran, Sri Lanka
Mongolia Mozambique, Nigeria, Suriname Venezuela, Ghana
B2 Bosnia & H., Bolivia B Belize, Bolivia, Kenya, B Bolivia, Lebanon, Mongolia
Venezuela, Turkmenistan, Ukraine Paraguay, Sri Lanka, Lebanon, Ukraine Mozambique, Suriname, Ukraina
B3 Argentina, Belize, Nicaragua B- Argentina, Fiji, Jamaica B- Argentina,
Jamaica, Pakistan, Paraguay Madagascar, Pakistan Ecuador, Jamaica
Caa1 Cuba, CCC+ Ecuador CCC+
Caa2 CCC CCCCaa3 Ecuador CCC- CCC-
Ca DDD
SD D
Source: Bloomberg
EMBI+ Index: Comparison with Other Countries
Change (bp) (02.01.2008 – 09.07.2010)
11
10
Turkey
Brazil
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134Source: Bloomberg
372
282
105
75
26
23
21
12
675
-20 30 80 130 180 230 280 330 380 430 480 530 580 630 680 730 780
Venezuela
Argentina
Ukraine
Russia
EMBI+
Phillipines
S. Africa
Mexico
Colombia
Equity Markets (Emerging and Mature Markets)% Change (02.01.2008-02.07.2010)
-37 4
-40.6
-53.1
Japan
Russia
China
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135Source: Bloomberg
4.5
1.1
-6.9
-7.0
-7.8
-12.7
-12.9
-21.8
-27.2
-36.5
-37.4
11.5
-60 -55 -50 -45 -40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15
Mexico
Turkey
Brazil
S. Africa
S. Korea
Malaysia
Hungary
India
USA (DJI)
Poland
Chech Rep.
Japan
Currency Markets (Against USD)% Change (02.01.2008 – 09.07.2010)
3.4
7.1
19.2
Malaysia
China
Japan
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136Source: Bloomberg
-31.2
-30.9
-28.3
-27.6
-25.9
-18.3
-17.4
-17.0
-11.7-11.3
0.9
-32.9
-40 -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Turkey
Poland
UK
Hungary
S. Korea
Russia
India
Euro
Mexico
Chech Rep.S. Africa
Brazil
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137
INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
Starting a Business (Number of Procedures)
6
6
44
S th Af i
OECD
Hungary
Bulgaria
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138
18
14
13
10
9
8
8
8
8
6
6
0 4 8 12 16 20
Brazil
China
India
Poland
Mexico
Croatia
Thailand
Czech Rep.
East. Eur.& Cent. Asia
Turkey
South Africa
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2009
Starting a Business (Duration. Days)
15
13
65
Czech Rep.
OECD
TurkeyHungary
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139
49
40
40
33
31
30
29
28
23
22
15
0 10 20 30 40 50
Bulgaria
Croatia
China
Thailand
Poland
India
Russia
Mexico
East. Eur.& Cent. Asia
South Africa
Czech Rep.
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2009
Starting a Business (Cost, % of GDP Per Capita)
12
13
1519
Croatia
Mexico
TurkeyPoland
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140
2
3
5
5
6
8
8
8
9
10
12
0 5 10 15 20
Bulgaria
Russia
Thailand
OECD
South Africa
Brazil
Hungary
China
East. Eur.& Cent. Asia
Czech Rep.
Croatia
Source: World Bank Doing Business Report, 2009
Taxes on Income and Profit (% of GDP, 2007)
30.0
35.0
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141
Source: OECD Factbook 2009*2006 data.
5.6
12.8
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
T u r k e y
M e x i c o
S l
o v a k R e p .
P o l a n d *
G r e e c e *
C z e c h R e p .
K o r e a
P o r t u g a l
H u n g a r y
F r a n c e
J a p a n
N e
t h e r l a n d s
G e r m a n y
I r e l a n d
A u s t r i a
S p a i n
L u x e m b o u r g
O
E C D A v . *
S w i t z e r l a n d
U S A U K
I t a l y
B e l g i u m
C a n a d a
F i n l a n d
A u s t r a l i a
S w e d e n
I c e l a n d
N o r w a y
N . Z e a l a n d
D e n m a r k
Tax Revenue Comparisons (% of GDP, 2007)
30
35
40
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142
Includes Mexico, Korea, Czech Rep., Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Rep. and Spain.
Source: OECD, Factbook 2009
0
5
10
15
2025
30
Total Tax Revenue Income Taxes Taxes on Goods and
Services
Turkey OECD Comparative Group*
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143
RELATIONS with the IMF and EU
Relations with the IMF
Projected
Payments
(Million
Repurchases
(Million SDR)
Amount
Drawn
(Million
Amount
Approved
(Million
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144
4,61825,69730,31534,522TOTAL
4,6182,0446,6626,662(05.2005 - 05.2008)19th Stand-by
Arrangement
011,91411,91412,821(02.2002 - 02.2005)18th Stand-by
Arrangement
011,73911,73915,038(12.1999 - 02.2002)17th Stand-ByArrangement
SDR)SDR)SDR)DurationArrangements
Source: Treasury
For 1 Chapter 1- Science and Research
For 7 Chapters
EU Accession Process
Negotiations were opened andprovisionally closed
Negotiations were openedprovisionally but closingbenchmarks
1- Enterprise and Industrial Policy, 2- Statistics, 3- Financial
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145
For 2 Chapters1- Education and Culture,2- Economic andMonetary Policy
For 13 Chapters
Remaining chapters
benchmarks
Submission of our Position Papers
Opening benchmarks
Awaiting for the screening reports
Control, 4- Consumer and Health Protection, 5- Trans-EuropeanNetworks, 6- Company Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks),7-Intellectual Property Law (fulfillment of opening benchmarks)
Programme For the Alignment with the EU Acquis (2007 – 2013):
Programme’s Aim: To complete alignment with the EU acquis
Structural Reforms
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146
SOCIAL SECURITY
Social Security Reform
Uniform norm and standarts for workers. civil cervants and the self employed
Main Features
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147
employed
Gradual increase in retirement age to 65
Decrease in accrual rate to 2 %.
The valorization of past earnings by CPI+30 % of GDP real growth
Indexation of pensions to CPI Universal health insurance
A new health scheme for the poor as of 2011
Introduction of copayments for health care Global budget in some health expenditures
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Decrease in Pension System Deficits
(2007-2075,% of GDP)
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149
Source: World Bank
Before the Reform
After the Reform
Retirement Age for Men
60
65
70
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150
48
40
45
50
55
60
T u r k e y
F r a n c e
S l
o v a
k R e p .
H u n g a r y
C
z e c
h R e p .
K o r e a ,
R e p .
A u s
t r i a
B e
l g i u m
D e n m a r k
N e
t h e r l a n
d s
U . K .
S p a
i n
S w e
d e n
S w
i t z e r l a n
d
I t a l y
J a p a n
C a n a
d a
L u x
e m
b o u r g
M e x
i c o
P o
l a n
d
P o r t u g a
l
N
. Z e a
l a n
d
G r e e c e
F i n l a n
d
I r e l a n
d
G e r m a n y
A u s
t r a l i a
U S A
I c e
l a n
d
N o r w a y
Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2009
(*) While for Turkey retirement age is indicating current lowest retirement age, for other countries indicating legal retirement age.
Net Replacement Rates
Switzerland
Ireland
Slovak. Rep.
UK
Germany
USA
Mexico
Japan
Low Earner
OE C DAv g. Australia
Korea
USA
N.Zealand
UK
Ireland
Japan
Mexico
Mean Earner
OE C DAv g
Switzerland
USA
Canada
Japan
Korea
Ireland
UK
N.Zealand
High Earner
OE C DAv
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151Source: OECD, Pensions at a Glance, 2009
121
10 35 60 85 110 135
Denmark
Turkey
Greece
Iceland
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Czech Rep.
Hungary
Austria
Canada
SpainAustralia
N.Zealand
Sw eden
Belgium
Norw ay
France
Italy
Poland
PortugalFinland
Korea
. 8
2 .4 %
125
10 35 60 85 110 135
Turkey
Greece
Macaristan
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Iceland
Denmark
Austria
Spain
Poland
Italy
Slovak. Rep.
Portugal
Norw ay
France
Sw itzerland
Czech Rep.
Sweden
Belgium
FinlandGermany
Canada
.7 0 . 3 %
130
10 35 60 85 110 135
Turkey
Greece
Macaristan
Netherlands
Luxembourg
Iceland
Sweden
Spain
Italy
Denmark
PolandSlovak. Rep.
Portugal
Austria
Finland
France
Norway
Germany
Belgium
Czech Rep.
Mexico
Australia
v g. 6 0 . 8 %
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152
LABOR MARKET
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Tax Wedge After Reform(Workers Earn 67% of Average Income, Married with 2 Children)
3436
3840
50
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154
0
10
20
30
B e l g i u m
G e r m a n y
H u n g a r y
F r a n c e
A u s t r i a
I t a l y
N e
t h e r l a n d s
C z e c h R e p .
D e n m a r k
P o l a n d
E U - 1 9
F i n l a n d
T u r k e y
G r e e c e
S l o v a k R e p .
T U R - 0 9
N o r w e y
S p a i n
O
E C D - a v g .
P o r t u g a l
U K
L u x e m b o u r
U S A
J a p a n
S w
i t z e r l a n d
C a n a d a
S w e d e n
I c e l a n d
A u s t r a l i a
N . Z e a l a n d
K o r e a
ı
r e l a n d
M e x i c o
Source: OECD Taxing Wedges, 2009
Not: TUR-09 involves the 5 point reduction in employer’s social security contribution and minimum living allowance.
Income Tax Plus Employee’s and Employer’s Social
Security Contributions* (% of labor costs, 2008)
Czech RepFinland
Sw edenNetherland
ItalyAustriaFrance
Germany
HungaryBelgium
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155
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
MexicoKorea
N.ZealandIreland
UKAustralia
IcelandSw itzerlan
JapanUSA
CanadaLuxembour
OECDPortugalNorw ey
SpainTurkeyPoland
Denmark
GreeceCzech Rep.
Income Tax Employee's SSC Employer's SSC
(*) Single without children at the income level of average worker
Source: OECD Taxing Wages 2009
Number of Insured (Million Persons)
3 4
3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.32.2
2.4 2.4 2.42.4
2.4 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.2
10
12
14
16
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156Source: Social Security Instutions
6.1 6.6 6.8 7.0 7.79.0 9.2 9.5 9.6 9.9
3.3 3.3 3.4 3.4
3.4
0
2
4
6
8
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
April
SSK Bağ-Kur Emekli Sandığı
Social Security Coverage (Million Persons)
(Employees and Dependents)
16.4 15.0 14 6 14.7 14.98.69.0
9.39.4
9.5
9.5 9.3 9.5 9.0 9.0
40
50
60
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157Source: Social Security Instutions
22.6 24.0 25.3 26.9 29.433.5 33.8 33.1 34.6 35.2
15.315.6 15.9 16.2 16
15.0 14.6
0
10
20
30
40
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
April
SSK Bağ-Kur Emekli Sandığı
Informal Employment Ratio by Provinces
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158
Source: Ministry of Labour and Social Security
Informal Employment Ratio (<35%)
Informal Employment Ratio (35-45%)
Informal Employment Ratio (45-55%)
Informal Employment Ratio (55-70%)
Informal Employment Ratio (>70%)
Distribution of Employment by Economic Activity (%)
ServicesIndustryAgriculture
49.526.823.7Turkey
67.728.04.4Spain
2.4 76.121.5Canada
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159
54.430.714.7Poland
56.040.73.3Czech Rep.
77.221.31.5UK
67.325.57.2Horea
59.927.113.0Mexico
4.5
3.7
4.2
63.1
66.2
68.4
32.4
30.0
27.4
ıtaly
Hungary
Japan
Source: OECD, 2008
Restrictiveness of Protection Legislation on Temporary
Employment (Index Scale of 0-6 from Least to Most Restrictive)
4.88
4
5
6
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160
0
1
2
3
4
C a n a d a
U S A U K
S l o v a k R e p .
I r e l a n d
A u s t r a l i a
S w i t z e r l a n d
C z e c h R e p .
H u n g a r y
N e t h e r l a n d s
J a p a n
N .
Z e l a n d
D e n m a r k
A u s t r i a
S w e d e n
K o r e a
G e r m a n y
S p a i n
P o l a n d
E U - 1 9
F i n l a n d
I t a l y
B e l g i u m
P o r t u g a l
N o r v e y
G r e e c e
F r a n c e
M e x i c o
L u x e m b o u r g
T u r k e y
1998 2008
OECD Avg. 1.77
Source: OECD Labour Force Database, 2009
Part-time Employment (%, 2008)
59.760
70
80
90
100
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161
8.4
0
10
20
30
4050
K o r e a
T u r k e y
D e n m
a r k
F i n l a n d
H u n g a r y
P o r t u g a l
P o l a n d
S l o v a k R e p .
C a n a d a
G r e e c e
U S A
J a p a n
N o r w e y
A u s t r a l i a
C z e c h
R e p .
N . Z e a l a n d
O E C D T
o t a l
N e t h e r l a n d s
I t a l y
O E C D E
u r o p e
U K
E U 1
9
E U 1 5
I r e l a n d
F r a n c e
G e r m
a n y
A u s t r i a
S p a i n
S w i t z e r l a n d
B e l g i u m
L u x e m
b o u r g
Part-time Employment as a Proportion of Total Employment Women's Share in Part-time Employment
Source: OECD, Labor Force Statistics Database, 2009
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163
R&D
Turkey: R&D Expenditures (Current PPP, USD)
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164
In 2002, 3 billion dollars. In 2008, 6.8 billion dollars.
R&D expenditures increased by 120 % between 2002
and 2008
Source: OECD, TURKSTAT, TÜBİTAK
6091
6893
6000
7000
8000
R&D Expenditure (Million TL)
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165
3835
2197
1292
798
1843
4400
2898
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: TURKSTAT
R&D Expenditure per Capita (PPP, USD)
9897
77
100
120
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166
67
53
4346464439
32
0
20
40
60
80
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: TUBITAK
In 2002, 28,964 people.
Turkey: Number of FTE* R&D Personnel
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167
In 2008, 67,244 people.
Number of R&D personnel increased by 132 %between 2002-2008
(*)Full Time EquivalentSource: OECD, TURKSTAT, TUBİTAK
Turkey: Number of FTE R&D Personnel
63377
67244
5444460000
70000
80000
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168Source: TURKSTAT
49252
27003
27698
28964 38308
39960
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
In 2002, 23,995 people.
Turkey: Number of FTE Researchers
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169
In 2007, 49,667 people. Number of researchers increased by 86 % between
2002-2007
Source: OECD, TURKSTAT, TUBİTAK
R&D Human Resources (Number of People*1000)
6367
5053
3840
4954
45
55
65
75
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170
Human resource is still the most important bottleneck for research.There is especially lack of scientists, project managers, technicians and supporting staff.
Source: TUBİTAK
14 15 16 16 17 18
22 23 23 2427 28 29
4339
3433
2423232019191816
14141311 125
15
25
35
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Full-time R&D Personnel Full-time Researcher
In 2002, 10,314 publications.
In 2008, 22,738 publications.
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publications
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171
Number of scientific publications increased by 120 %between 2002 and 2008
Source: ISI, TUBİTAK
Turkey: Number of Scientific Publication
22738
21943
18917
19000
21000
23000
25000
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172
18917
16713
12432
15429
10309
5000
7000
9000
11000
13000
15000
17000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Source: TUBİTAK
Number of Scientific Publications per Million People
318311
272
243250
300
350
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173Source: TUBITAK
243228
186
156
100
150
200
250
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
In 2002, 85 international patent applications.
I 2008 361 i t ti l t t li ti
Turkey: Number of International Patent Applications
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174
In 2008, 361 international patent applications. Number of international patent applications increased by
325 % between 2002-2008
Source: WIPO, TUBİTAK
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Patent Applications and Registries
1090
1838
2268
1500
2000
2500
ro
f p a t e n t )
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176
Patent applications increased by 23.4 % between 2007-2008
Source: TPI, TUBİTAK
73 93 68 95 122
318 338414
490
685
935
1090
0
500
1000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
( N u m b e r o
Domestic Patent Registries Domestic Patent Appliciations
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ENERGY SECTOR
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178
ENERGY SECTOR
Electricity Demand and Supply in Turkey (Billion kWh)
150
200
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179
Source: TEİAŞ
0
50
100
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Supply Demand
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Household Natural Gas PricesEuro / GigaJoule, For consumers with 20 GJ – 200GJ annual consumption, 2009 1st Half)
15
20
25
30
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181
Kaynak: Eurostat
0
5
10
D e n m a r k
S w e d e n
N e t h e r l a n d s
I t a l y
E u r o A r e a
S l o v e n i a
A u s t r i a
G e r m a n y
I r e l a n d
S p a i n
B e l g i u m
P o r t u g a l
E U 2 7
F r a n c e
L a t v i a
C z e c h R e p u b l i c
H u n g a r y
B u l g a r i a
S l o v a k i a
E n g l a n d
L i t h u a n i a
E s t o n i a
T u r k e y
P o l a n d
C r o a t i a
R o m a n i a
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
15
20
25
Industrial Electricity Prices(Eurocent / kWh, For consumers with 2.000MWh – 20.000Mwh annual consumption,
2009 1st Half)
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182
0
5
10
D e n m a r k
S l o v a
k i a
I t a l y
G e r m a n y
H u n g a r y
M a
l t a
S o u
t h C y p r u s
N e
t h e r l a n
d s
I r e l a n
d
E n g
l a n
d
E u r o
A r e a
E U 2 7
C z
e c
h R e p u
b l i c
S p a
i n
S l o v e n
i a
L a
t v i a
L u x e m
b o u r g
P o
l a n
d
L i t h u a n
i a
G r e e c e
C r o a
t i a
P o r t u g a
l
R o m a n
i a
N o r w a y
T u r k e y
F i n l a n
d
F r a n c e
S w e
d e n
B u
l g a r i a
E s
t o n
i a
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
Kaynak: Eurostat
15
20
25
30
Household Electricity Prices(Eurocent/kWh, For consumers with 2.500 kWh- 5.000kWh annual consumption, 2009 1st Half)
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183
0
5
10
D e n m a r k
G e r m a n y
I t a l y
I r e l a n d
B e l g i u m
A u s t r i a
N e t h e r l a n d s
L u x e m b o u r g
E u r o A r e a
M a l t a
E U 2 7
S w e d e n
S p a i n
N o r w a y
S
o u t h C y p r u s
S l o v a k i a
P o r t u g a l
H u n g a r y
E n g l a n d
S l o v e n i a
C z e
c h R e p u b l i c
F i n l a n d
F r a n c e
G r e e c e
C r o a t i a
T u r k e y
P o l a n d
L a t v i a
R o m a n i a
L i t h u a n i a
E s t o n i a
B u l g a r i a
Without Taxes Other Taxes VAT
Kaynak: Eurostat
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