The Turkish Economy, State of Play Dirk Verbeken, DG Economic and Financial Affairs Brussels, 25 September 2012
Nov 22, 2014
The Turkish Economy, State of Play
Dirk Verbeken, DG Economic and Financial Affairs
Brussels, 25 September 2012
Growing at a robust rate…
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK)
Turkey Euro Area US Brazil Russia India China2012 2.3 -0.3 2.0 2.5 4.0 6.1 8.02013 3.2 0.7 2.3 4.6 3.9 6.5 8.52012 3.3 -0.1 2.4 3.2 4.5 7.1 8.22013 4.6 0.9 2.6 4.2 4.1 7.7 9.32012 2.9 -0.3 2.1 2.9 3.8 6.6 8.22013 4.0 0.7 2.4 4.2 4.2 6.9 8.62014 5.0 1.4 2.8 3.9 4.0 7.1 8.42012 3.2 -0.3 2.1 3.3 4.4 6.7 8.32013 5.4 0.9 2.3 4.5 4.4 7.2 8.5
Growth Forecasts for Selected Countries/Country Groups (%)
IMF
WB
UN
OECD
…with good prospects…
…a significant income increase…
Compares with Belgium (PPP adjusted) : 37600 (2011)
External vulnerability high…
Inflation sticky
Source: Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK)
2011 Budget Performance, in % of GDP
Compares with Belgium (April notification) : deficit 3.7% of GDP
Public Debt (2011, % of GDP)
Compares with Belgium (April notification) : debt 98% of GDP
• Turkey has a population of 75 million, and half younger than 29.7.• Growth rate of population is 1.4% in Turkey, compared with 0.3% in the EU.
Population is young…
Unemployment rate…
Employment…
In a nutshell (1)…
• High growth, driven by domestic demand in 2010-2011.• Major deceleration in 2012H1 (3.1% yoy), rebalancing
away from credit fuelled consumption…• Some improvement in trade/current account deficit, but
major domestic savings shortage remains (capital reversals' risk)
In a nutshell (2)…
• Public finances relatively sound, fiscal stance broadly ok• Monetary policy complex and multi-targeted (growth,
CA, inflation)• Inflationary pressures significant • Improvements on the labour market, but low female
participation• Education and human capital major challenges
In a nutshell (3)…
• Structural reforms very high on the agenda after 2001 financial crisis (financial sector, public sector, business climate: FDI-law, banking law, etc…)
• But major slowdown in recent years…• Imbalances signal competitiveness problems and call
for more…