Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan Africa C. Sere and M. Herrero The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium
May 25, 2015
Trends and driving forces in livestock production and trade in Sub Saharan
Africa
C. Sere and M. Herrero
The Role of Livestock for ACP countries: challenges and opportunities ahead
Brussels Development Briefings - 1st July, 2009 Brussels, Belgium
– Livestock systems occupy 45% or the global land area (Reid et al 2008)
– Livestock are a significant global asset: value of at least $1.4 trillion (excluding infrastructure that supports livestock industries) (Thornton and Herrero 2008)
– Livestock industries organised in long market chains that employ at least 1.3 billion people (LID 1999)
– Livestock key as a risk reduction strategy for vulnerable communities (Freeman et al 2007)
– Important providers of nutrients and traction for growing crops in smallholder systems (at least 60% of the global cropping area receives manure applications – Herrero et al 2008a)
Livestock and livelihoods (1)
– Livestock products contribute to 17% of the global kilocalorie consumption and 33% of the protein consumption (FAOSTAT 2008)
– Livestock provide food for at least 830 million food insecure people (Gerber
– Significant global differences in kilocalorie consumption but… highest rates of increase in consumption of livestock products in the developing World
– .
Europe - 2000
10%
11%
5%
31%5%
1%
37%
Meat
Dairy
Fruit & Vegetables
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Dryland crops
Others
Livestock and livelihoods (3)
SSA - 2000
3%
3%
4%
47%16%
3%
24%Meat
Dairy
Fruit & Vegetables
Cereals
Roots & Tubers
Dryland crops
Others
Herrero et al 2008a
At least 600 million of the World’s poor depend on livestock
ILRI 2009
Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000-2030)
Farming system
Population in 2000 (1000 of
people)
Population in 2030 (1000 of
people)
(Agro-)Pastoral 80,160 140,820
Mixed Extensive 258,680 484,750
Mixed Potentially Intensify 168,150 327,070
Other 109,180 190,310
Human population in Sub-Saharan Africa will nearly double to 2030!!
Herrero et al 2009
Consumption of livestock products in thedeveloping world is projected to increase even faster
IAASTD 2007
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
developing countries industrial countries
ch
an
ge
20
01
- 2
03
0 (
%)
cereals, food
cereals, all uses
veg. oils, oilseeds andby-productsmeat
milk
Cereal yields
Increasing….except in Sub-Saharan Africa
World Bank 2007
Cereals production in Sub-Saharan Africa (2000)
Cereals Production 2000
5%
68%
24%
3%
AgroPastoral
Mixed Extensive
Mixed Intensive
Other
Herrero et al 2009
Rates of cereal production diminishing in places due to water and other constraints
Annual changes in Cereal Production2000 - 2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Rates of growth of mixed intensive similar to developed countriesCatching up
Rates lower than those of population growth
Herrero et al 2009
…but rates of production of animal products are increasing at significantly faster rates….
Annual rates of change - beef production 2000-2030
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Annual rates of change - milk production 2000-2030
0123456789
CSA EA SA SEA SSA WANA Total
%
AgroPastoral Mixed Extensive Mixed Intensive Other Developed countries
Increased consumptionIncreased incomes
…but increased pressure on resources (land, feeds, etc)
Some industrialisation….
Herrero et al 2009
Herrero et al 2009
Dependence on green and blue water 2000
80% of agricultural production comes from rainfed areas, significant regional variations exist – CA 2007
Small holder/Dairy cattle
Hub/Local org.
Milk collection
Milk processing/marketing
Breeding services
Vaccinations
Deworming
Disease Investigation
Veterinary services
Breed selectionSuperior germplasm
Performance evaluation
Lab servicesInput supply
ParavetVeterinarian
SeedsFertilizers
Feed/MineralsMicro-financeCrop residues
Fodder production
Pasture development
Water conservation/ supply
Fodder producers /Traders
Plant breedersSoil scientists
Small Scale DairyExisting value chain Proposed value chain
ILRI
Wider Replication
National/ Regional PlayersPrivate Entrepreneurs
Training /Capacity building
Monitoring /Evaluation
Consumer
Hedge 2009
Mean CC impacts on yields
With CO2 fertilization Without CO2 fertilization% %
Calorie-based national mean change in crop productivity [%] 2050s compared to 1990s
n=15; 3SRES, 5GCM
n=15; 3SRES, 5GCM
PIK, Müller et al., preliminary results
Conclusions
• Mixed crop-livestock systems will continue to be the backbone of agriculture and livestock production in Sub Saharan Africa
• Domestic and regional markets – essential• Improved market access, competitiveness,
reduction of transactions costs necessary• Significant room for intensification, particularly in
areas of medium agricultural potential• More livestock due to climate change?