Trends and associated questions The cases of age and ethnicity Professor James Nazroo University College London.

Trends and associated questionsTrends and associated questionsThe cases of age and ethnicityThe cases of age and ethnicity

Professor James NazrooProfessor James Nazroo

University College LondonUniversity College London

An Ageing WorldAn Ageing World

The number of elderly people (those aged 65 and older) increased more than threefold since 1950.

In Europe 14% of the population is 65 and older; by 2050 this is estimated to be 28% of the population

The rate of increase of the 65 and older population is accelerating: Currently it is 8 million people per year; In 2030 it is estimated to be 24 million people per year.

The oldest old (those aged 80 and older) is the fastest growing group among the elderly.

Survival rates by age and period: UK womenSurvival rates by age and period: UK women

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 100

Age

Pro

po

rtio

n s

urv

ivin

g

1911-1915 1951-1955 1991-1995

Impacts of an ageing population?Impacts of an ageing population?

Does older age necessarily equate with:

Illness and physical dependency; Poverty and financial dependency; Not having a role in society; Being dissatisfied.

‘A looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely for support on a dwindling working-age population.’

Labour force participation among older menLabour force participation among older men

Aged 60-64

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Aged 65-69

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Full-time Part-time Self-employed

Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996

Labour force participation among older womenLabour force participation among older women

Aged 55-59

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Aged 60-64

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Full-time Part-time Self-employed

Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996

£100

£120

£140

£160

57 62 67Average age of cohort

Born 1911-14 Born 1915-18 Born 1919-22 Born 1923-26

Cohort differences in income (1996 prices)Cohort differences in income (1996 prices)

Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996

Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)

6

7

8

9

1982 1989 1994 1996

Nu

mb

er

in m

illio

ns

Manton et al. 1997

Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m

(Projected) Total population aged 65+ was

34.1m

Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m

Total population aged 65+ was

30.8m

Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)

6

7

8

9

1982 1989 1994 1996

Nu

mb

er

in m

illio

ns

If chronic disability rate remained constant Based on declines in chronic disability rate since 1982

Manton et al. 1997

Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m

(Projected) Total population aged 65+ was

34.1m

Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m

Total population aged 65+ was

30.8m

The ‘Third Age’/‘Successful Ageing’The ‘Third Age’/‘Successful Ageing’

Post-retirement, post-parenting, but pre-dependency;

Contributing to society: Voluntary/community activities; Political/civic engagement;

Consuming and enjoying life, leisure and pleasure;

Self-fulfilment Having a role Having status Having fun

Healthy, wealthy and engaged in society

Morbidity by Occupational Grade at Older AgesMorbidity by Occupational Grade at Older Ages

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

General Health Mental Health PhysicalPerformance

Disability

High grade Middle grade Low grade

Median Age 77 (range 67-97) Whitehall II

Ethnicity in the 2001 CensusEthnicity in the 2001 CensusWhat is your ethnic group (cultural background)?

White: British; Irish; Any other White background.

Mixed: White and Black Caribbean; White and Black African;

White and Asian; Any other Mixed background.

Asian or Asian British: Indian; Pakistani; Bangladeshi;

Any other Asian background.

Black or Black British: Caribbean; African;

Any other Black Background

Chinese or other ethnic group: Chinese; Any other

New ethnic identities: tradition or New ethnic identities: tradition or translation and hybriditytranslation and hybridity

The effect of globalisation has been to contest the settled, unified and trans- historical contours of national identity … This might lead to a strengthening of local identities – the revival of cultural traditionalism, perhaps in response to the experience of cultural racism and exclusion – or the production of new identities

Migration means people are ‘Obliged to come to terms with the new cultures they inhabit ... They bear upon them the traces of the particular cultures, traditions, languages and histories by which they were shaped ... [but] they are irrevocably the product of several interlocking histories and cultures ... people belonging to such cultures of hybridity have had to renounce the dream [of] ethnic absolutism. They are irrevocably translated ... they must learn to inhabit at least two identities, to speak two cultural languages, to translate and negotiate between them.

Hall (1992)

Ethnic composition of the English populationEthnic composition of the English population

2001 Census* estimated from 1999 HSE

Number Per cent Per cent migrant*

White British 42,747,000 87.0 2

White Irish 624,000 1.3 49

Other White 1,308,000 2.7 69

Black Caribbean (incl. mixed) 793,000 1.6 47

Black African (incl. mixed) 552,000 1.1 83

Other Black 95,000 0.2 60

Indian Asian 1,029,000 2.1 75

Pakistani Asian 707,000 1.4 67

Bangladeshi Asian 275,000 0.6 87

Other Asian 238,000 0.5 88

Mixed White and Asian 184,000 0.4 47

Chinese 221,000 0.5 81

Other (incl. other mixed) 336,000 0.7 88

Change in the ethnic composition of the Change in the ethnic composition of the English population: 1991 to 2001English population: 1991 to 2001

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

BlackCaribbean

BlackAfrican

Indian Pakistani Bangla-deshi

Chinese Other Total

Absolute change Relative change

2001 Census figures calculated using an algorithm derived from Nazroo and Karlsen (manuscript)

Ethnic differences in occupational positionEthnic differences in occupational position

20171141282430IV/V

30242839332627IIIm

161416 7141419IIInm

34464513253623I/II

RG class of head of household

75726746596958

Male employment rates

White English

White minority

ChineseBangl-adeshi

PakistaniIndianCaribbean

Health Survey for England 1999

Per cent

Ethnic differences in equivalised Ethnic differences in equivalised household incomehousehold income

48% 45%

69%

90%

41%

27% 31%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Caribbean Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Whiteminority

WhiteEnglish

Bottom tertile Middle tertile Top tertile

Health Survey for England 1999

Racism, discrimination and racial prejudiceRacism, discrimination and racial prejudice One in 8 ethnic minority people experience racial harassment in a year.

Repeated racial harassment is a common experience.

25% of ethnic minority people say they are fearful of racial harassment.

20% of ethnic minority people report being refused a job for racial reasons, and almost 3/4 of them say it has happened more than once.

20% of ethnic minority people believe that most employers would refuse somebody a job for racial reasons, only 12% thought no employers would do this.

White people freely report their own prejudice: One in four say they are prejudiced against Asian people; One in five say they are prejudiced against Caribbean people.

Modood et al. 1997

Reported fair or bad healthReported fair or bad health

Age adjusted odds ratio compared with white English

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Caribbean Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Whiteminority

Od

ds

ra

tio

(a

nd

95

% C

.I.)

Health Survey for England 1999

Reported fair or bad health by ethnic Reported fair or bad health by ethnic group and agegroup and age

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2-5 5-9 10-12 13-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40 41-45 46-50 51-60 61-70 > 70

Caribbean Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese White minority White English

Health Survey for England 1999

Generation and occupational class:Generation and occupational class:Per cent in a manual occupationPer cent in a manual occupation

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

Caribbean Indian Pakistani Bangladeshi Chinese Whiteminority

Not born in England Born in England

Health Survey for England 1999

ConclusionsConclusions

Outcomes are not inevitable: positives as well as negatives

Variation in outcomes within the UK population

Variation in outcomes internationally

Importance of policy context

Need for good data to inform policy