The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: The past, present and future research agenda Professor James Nazroo University College London.

The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing:The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing:

The past, present and future research agendaThe past, present and future research agenda

Professor James NazrooProfessor James Nazroo

University College LondonUniversity College London

ELSAEnglish LongitudinalStudy of Ageing

Research team

International Centre for Health and Society, UCL Institute for Fiscal Studies and UCL National Centre for Social Research plus researchers from Cambridge, Oxford, Nottingham

Funding from NIA and UK government departments

The English Longitudinal Study of AgeingThe English Longitudinal Study of Ageing


Impacts of an ageing population?Impacts of an ageing population?

Does older age necessarily equate with:

Illness and physical dependency - a crisis in health care;

Poverty and financial dependency - a pension crisis; Not having a role in society and social isolation; Being dissatisfied?

‘A looming catastrophe, as populations top-heavy with frail, retired elderly drain pension and social security funds, overwhelm health care systems, and rely for support on a dwindling working-age population.’


Labour force participation among older menLabour force participation among older men

Aged 60-64

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Aged 65-69

0

20

40

60

80

100

68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96

Year

Full-time Part-time Self-employed

Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996


£100

£120

£140

£160

57 62 67Average age of cohort

Born 1911-14 Born 1915-18 Born 1919-22 Born 1923-26

Cohort differences in income (1996 prices)Cohort differences in income (1996 prices)

Banks and Smith, FES 1968-1996


Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)Chronic disability (Americans aged 65 plus)

6

7

8

9

1982 1989 1994 1996

Nu

mb

er

in m

illio

ns

If chronic disability rate remained constant Based on declines in chronic disability rate since 1982

Manton et al. 1997

Total population aged 65+ was 26.9m

(Projected) Total population aged 65+ was

34.1m

Total population aged 65+ was 33.7m

Total population aged 65+ was

30.8m


The English Longitudinal Study of AgeingThe English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Examination of and the relationships between: Health Economic position and activity Social participation, productivity, networks and support

Need for longitudinal data to understand these relationships over time and across cohorts

Need for data relevant to current policy questions

ELSA will produce a database that can be used to tackle key policy and scientific questions; and that is accessible to and meets the needs of the research and policy communities


ELSA broad questionnaire coverageELSA broad questionnaire coverage Demographics

Self-assessed health Diagnosed disease and symptoms ADLs and IADLS Eyesight, hearing, pain, falls Mental health Cognitive function Quality of received medical care Health behaviours Performance measures Biomedical measures

Housing Household income Wealth Pensions and retirement Employment status and job

characteristics Consumption

Psychosocial factors and well-being

Social participation Expectations for the future

Links to geographical and administrative data


ELSA sample designELSA sample design

Sample is approximately 11,500 people born before 1st March 1952 who are in the private household sector at baseline.

Sample drawn from HSE (1998, 1999,2001) - HSE measures form ELSA baseline.

Sample also includes spouses outside the age range and partners who joined the household since the HSE baseline (giving 12,100 cases in total).

Those incapable of doing the interview have a proxy interview.

Interviewed every two years, with a biomedical assessment every four years.

Exit interviews will be carried out with the partners or carers of people who died after wave 1.


ELSA timetable for waves 1 and 2ELSA timetable for waves 1 and 2 1998, 1999 and 2000

Oct 2000 to Feb 2002

March 2002 to Feb 2003

March 2003 to March 2004

April 2004 to March 2005

March 2005 to Sept 2005

- HSE fieldwork

- Development work

- Wave 1 fieldwork

- Preparation of data for archiving- Analysis of data (Wave 1 report end 2003)- Development of wave 2

- Wave 2 ELSA fieldwork, including nurse visit- Data archiving (deposited summer 2004)

- Preparation of wave 2 data for archiving- Analysis and reporting of data- Development of further waves


Some ELSA wave 1 findingsSome ELSA wave 1 findings

Marmot, M., Banks, J., Blundell, R., Lessof, C. and Nazroo, J. (2003) Health, wealth and lifestyles of the older population in England: The 2002 English Longitudinal Study of Ageing, London: The Insititute for Fiscal Studies

www.ifs.org.uk/elsa


Self-assessed health: womenSelf-assessed health: women

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

50–54 55–59 60–64 65–69 70–74 75–79 80+

Age

Fair/poor Good Excellent/very good

Source: Marmot et al. 2003


Health outcomes and classHealth outcomes and class

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Men Women Men Women

Routine/manual Intermediate Managerial/professional

Self-assessed fair or poor health Diagnosed or symptomatic heart disease



Fair/poor self reported health, wealth and ageFair/poor self reported health, wealth and age

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

50-54 60-64 70-74

Poorest Quintile Quintile 2 Quintile 3 Quintile 4 Richest Quintile



The distribution of financial wealthThe distribution of financial wealth

20

40

60

80

100

120

10th 20th 30th 40th 50th 60th 70th 80th 90th

Percentile points of financial wealth

£ 00

0

Aged 60-74 onlyWithin age groups deciles



0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

50-54 55-59 60-64

poorest quintile 2 quintile 3 quintile 4 richest

`

Economically inactive by age and wealth quintile: men



Retired by age and private pension typeRetired by age and private pension type(Men with private pensions)(Men with private pensions)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

50-54 55-59 60-64 All

Defined Benefit Defined Contribution Other



Membership of organisations by class: menMembership of organisations by class: men

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

none one 2, 3 4+

Number of organisations

Routine and Manual Intermediate Managerial



Plans for the next funding cyclePlans for the next funding cycle

Proposal now under review

Content of core data collection Modelled on wave 1 and wave 2 instruments Will need to reflect national policy agenda and changes in this Will be influenced by international policy agenda and how this is being

taken on by the studies collaborating with ELSA (HRS, SHARE etc.)

Additions to core ELSA data collection: Wave 3 (2006), life history interview Wave 4 (2008), nurse visit Experimental/development work at each wave (e.g. well-being,

vignettes, consumption, new biomedical and genetic measures)


Timetable for next funding cycle (waves 3 and 4)Timetable for next funding cycle (waves 3 and 4)

October 2005 to March 2006

April 2006 to Feb 2007

March 2007 to March 2008

April 2008 to March 2009

April 2009 to April 2010

April 2010 on

- Development work

- Wave 3 fieldwork, including retrospective

- Preparation of data for archiving, analysis etc.

- Wave 4 ELSA fieldwork, including nurse visit

- Preparation of data for archiving, analysis etc.

- Future funding for wave 5 onwards


The research questions: some examplesThe research questions: some examples

The nature and timing of retirement and post-retirement labour market activity.

The determinants of economic well-being in older age.

Cognitive function and its impact on decision making among older people.

Disability and the compression of morbidity.

Economic, social and health inequalities in an ageing population.

Social participation and social productivity at older ages.

The English Longitudinal Study of Ageing: The past, present and future research agenda Professor James Nazroo University College London.

Documents

elsa wave

longitudinal data

ageing population

elsa fieldwork

waves slide

administrative data

current policy questions

data wave